A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

Bregman to wait to offseason to discuss extension...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/alex-bregman-to-wait-until-offseason-to-discuss-contract.html

 While Bregman is “obviously…open to talking” at season’s end, the third baseman stressed that “for the next few months, I’m just really focused on the baseball.  I’m just focused on trying to do what I can to help this team win and get into the playoffs.  I feel like that’s where my head and mind need to be.”

[moonslav59]

Alcala claimed by STL. How bad is their staff?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We gotta say good bye to Toro. Period.

On Sunday when the Sox had the bases loaded, no outs, and the go-ahead run at the plate -- only to strikeout three straight times -- I'm not going to say I was pining for the return of Kristian Campbell (who did blast one to the berm in Worcester earlier in the afternoon).

But the last two losses, and seemingly every loss, always expose the longball power that was never replaced at the trade deadline. 

Toro's pinch-K looking was predictable, but two other summer stars got themselves out: Ceddanne, who reverted to a skinny, righty Raffy hacking at balls two feet above the zone, and Anthony, who probably felt like he couldn't take a 3-2 pitch on the inside corner lest a grouchy ump rookied the young whippersnapper.

We knew there were going to be Ls like this, after no bats were recruited at the deadline. Campbell's bat speed, and the quickness he's shown around 1B, are signs he's ready to get back soon and contribute down the stretch. He may not surpass Toro, but which one would you bet on: a guy who's bounced around AAA for parts of six seasons, or the batter who hit better than every other player in the minor leagues in the past calendar year?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

On Sunday when the Sox had the bases loaded, no outs, and the go-ahead run at the plate -- only to strikeout three straight times -- I'm not going to say I was pining for the return of Kristian Campbell (who did blast one to the berm in Worcester earlier in the afternoon).

But the last two losses, and seemingly every loss, always expose the longball power that was never replaced at the trade deadline. 

Toro's pinch-K looking was predictable, but two other summer stars got themselves out: Ceddanne, who reverted to a skinny, righty Raffy hacking at balls two feet above the zone, and Anthony, who probably felt like he couldn't take a 3-2 pitch on the inside corner lest a grouchy ump rookied the young whippersnapper.

We knew there were going to be Ls like this, after no bats were recruited at the deadline. Campbell's bat speed, and the quickness he's shown around 1B, are signs he's ready to get back soon and contribute down the stretch. He may not surpass Toro, but which one would you bet on: a guy who's bounced around AAA for parts of six seasons, or the batter who hit better than every other player in the minor leagues in the past calendar year?

Campbell has a higher k rate in AAA than Toro has in MLB. You think Campbell would have been LESS likely to k in that PA though? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell has a higher k rate in AAA than Toro has in MLB. You think Campbell would have been LESS likely to k in that PA though? 

Absolutely, if KC was swinging -- who knows, he might have even put the ball in play.

Toro kept the bat on his shoulder. But he got a good look at the camera giving all of us at home a bad look at him looking.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Absolutely, if KC was swinging -- who knows, he might have even put the ball in play.

Toro kept the bat on his shoulder. But he got a good look at the camera giving all of us at home a bad look at him looking.

Campbell: 36.1% backwards K

Toro: 23.1% backwards K

Campbell is MORE likely to watch a third strike go by. 🫠

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell: 36.1% backwards K

Toro: 23.1% backwards K

Campbell is MORE likely to watch a third strike go by. 🫠

Stats? After just asking me what I think?

I think Toro has one homer this summer. 

I'll take my chances with the kid who was named Minor League Player of the Year by people who evaluate for a living.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Stats? After just asking me what I think?

I think Toro has one homer this summer. 

I'll take my chances with the kid who was named Minor League Player of the Year by people who evaluate for a living.

I don't want Toro on the roster and have said so many times. I also don't want Campbell on the roster because I want him working on his defense and really spending time learning what makes his hitting work while in AAA. They can't rush him back to MLB. I'd rather keep him down until '26. 

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't want Toro on the roster and have said so many times. I also don't want Campbell on the roster because I want him working on his defense and really spending time learning what makes his hitting work while in AAA. They can't rush him back to MLB. I'd rather keep him down until '26. 

Agree on both.  I liked Toro for awhile, but no longer.  Gonzalez stays at 1b. and Rafaela, Hamilton or the great Grissom plays 2b.  

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree on both.  I liked Toro for awhile, but no longer.  Gonzalez stays at 1b. and Rafaela, Hamilton or the great Grissom plays 2b.  

They needed to acquire somebody. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not disputing either take, but if the AL is as blah as it looks, and the Sox still look playoff-bound in a month, then they owe it to the big league roster, coaching staff and especially the paying consumers (we who are so consumed by this endeavor) to assemble the best team possible and go for it.

If that includes Hicks, Hammy, May, Masa and your little dog, too, then Let's GOOOOOO!

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not disputing either take, but if the AL is as blah as it looks, and the Sox still look playoff-bound in a month, then they owe it to the big league roster, coaching staff and especially the paying consumers (we who are so consumed by this endeavor) to assemble the best team possible and go for it.

If that includes Hicks, Hammy, May, Masa and your little dog, too, then Let's GOOOOOO!

Toro has a 527 OPS since 6/13. They could trade for a guy through the waiver process and get someone better through Aug 31. Probably won't though. 

I'm not sold that a AAA guy who previously struggled in MLB offensively and defensively (451 OPS in 39 G from 4/30 - 6/18) is the key to turning 1b around. He was near the league lead in errors at the time of demotion (all at 2b) and was ranked as the worst defensive player in MLB by advanced metrics specifically for his IF play. 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

Moran was a decent bullpen arm before getting injured. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell: 36.1% backwards K

Toro: 23.1% backwards K

Campbell is MORE likely to watch a third strike go by. 🫠

Based on that tiny sample size?

[moonslav59]

Nick Burdi DFA'd and Jovani Moran added.

Burdi did pretty well, for us. Maybe the rehab was not progressing as hoped.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nick Burdi DFA'd and Jovani Moran added.

Burdi did pretty well, for us. Maybe the rehab was not progressing as hoped.

Nick Burdi is 32 years old.  His 5.1 IP for Boston this season is only 4.1  IP shy of his MLB career high.  His 24 IP in Worcester this year is his highest total at any level since 2015.

I think we can view Burdi as like a shell discharged in action at this point.  Rehab or not, he’s pretty much at his physical limit 

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Based on that tiny sample size?

Is there another you'd prefer? Toro's lower k numbers in AAA this season than Campbell's? 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Nick Burdi is 32 years old.  His 5.1 IP for Boston this season is only 4.1  IP shy of his MLB career high.  His 24 IP in Worcester this year is his highest total at any level since 2015.

I think we can view Burdi as like a shell discharged in action at this point.  Rehab or not, he’s pretty much at his physical limit 

Whether it was Burdi or Kelly, it didn't really matter. Neither of those guys have the ceiling that Moran showed when he was healthy in MINN. 

[Larry Cook]

On 8/10/2025 at 6:52 PM, moonslav59 said:

We gotta say good bye to Toro. Period.

I just saw a video of Campbell making 2 outstanding plays at 1st base!!!  

time for toro to report to wardrobe to change into his Star Trek original red security personnel shirt!!!

I see Murphy also hit his expiration date today 

[vegasbob]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Alcala claimed by STL. How bad is their staff?

How bad is Bloom at picking pitchers?

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is there another you'd prefer? Toro's lower k numbers in AAA this season than Campbell's? 

It's not about that. It's matter of factly stating Campbell is more likely to watch a called srike than Toro.

How can we know that?

Also, we need to consider who might be more likely to get a hit or BB.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I just saw a video of Campbell making 2 outstanding plays at 1st base!!!  

time for toro to report to wardrobe to change into his Star Trek original red security personnel shirt!!!

I see Murphy also hit his expiration date today 

Murphy was demoted. He suddenly lost control.

He'll probably be back, this year or next. I think he'll survive the winter 40 man crunch.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, vegasbob said:

How bad is Bloom at picking pitchers?

We saw, first hand.

The Wacha and Strahm signings were like blind squirrels climbing broken clocks.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not about that. It's matter of factly stating Campbell is more likely to watch a called srike than Toro.

How can we know that?

Also, we need to consider who might be more likely to get a hit or BB.

We know it because he has a higher caught looking third strike % than Toro. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We know it because he has a higher caught looking third strike % than Toro. 

So, "we know" that players always repeat what they just did in tiny sample sizes for the rest of their career.

Got it.

BTW, Toro & Campbell have the exact same amount of PAs, this year, and guess who has the better OBP. There is no way to know who will do better going forward. We do know Toro has basically sucked his whole career. His career OPS was lower before this year than Campbell's first 263 PAs in MLB. His OPS, this year has been horrific, except for a 16 game stretch. Once could say the same about Campbell's short stretch that padded his 2025 numbers, too, but saying we know what these guys would do is just not true.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, "we know" that players always repeat what they just did in tiny sample sizes for the rest of their career.

Got it.

BTW, Toro & Campbell have the exact same amount of PAs, this year, and guess who has the better OBP. There is no way to know who will do better going forward. We do know Toro has basically sucked his whole career. His career OPS was lower before this year than Campbell's first 263 PAs in MLB. His OPS, this year has been horrific, except for a 16 game stretch. Once could say the same about Campbell's short stretch that padded his 2025 numbers, too, but saying we know what these guys would do is just not true.

Yes, we're going by small sample sizes because it's all we have with Campbell. Duh! 

Campbell MLB 25: 664 OPS

Toro MLB 25: 693 OPS

Campbell AAA 830 OPS

Toro AAA 25: 883 OPS

Toro has been a better hitter than Campbell this year. It's not controversial. Campbell should NOT be called up regardless of his recent hot stretch. It's better for him to play out the season in AAA and come back next year then come up struggle and be a wreck all offseason. His 1b play has been rough. He's not hitting well against the top tier pitching in AAA. Hitting some bombs against a few AAA scrubs may help his confidence, but doesn't show that he's MLB ready. 

[Duran Is The Man]

13 hours ago, vegasbob said:

How bad is Bloom at picking pitchers?

i think i have a better chance at hitting the Powerball than him picking a decent pitcher.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, we're going by small sample sizes because it's all we have with Campbell. Duh! 

 

Just because it's all we have does not mean every small sample size is the sue bet indicator of what is to come.

Double Duh!

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Just because it's all we have does not mean every small sample size is the sue bet indicator of what is to come.

Double Duh!

I think toro is regressing into what Toro is, an AAAA player! 
 

but Campbell has huge upside. Yes, Campbell was rushed to the majors. Shame on bres-slow. Yes, Campbell had to reconstruct himself in Worcester! And to campbell’s credit, he is figuring it out!!! 
 

But the bottom line is Campbell has a huge ceiling when he figures it out. We need to bring him up when Campbell proves he is ready!!  No more rushing