A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

Going into the trade deadline, here are the match-ups:

BOS: 3 @MIN/ v HOU

NYY: 4 v TBR

SEA: 3 @OAK/ v TEX

TEX: 3 @LAA/ @SEA

TBR: 4 @NYY

WC Race

57-48 NYY +1.5

57-50 BOS +0.5 (We hold the #2 WC slot, now.)

56-50 SEA & TEX -0.5

[Maxbialystock]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Going into the trade deadline, here are the match-ups:

BOS: 3 @MIN/ v HOU

NYY: 4 v TBR

SEA: 3 @OAK/ v TEX

TEX: 3 @LAA/ @SEA

TBR: 4 @NYY

WC Race

57-48 NYY +1.5

57-50 BOS +0.5 (We hold the #2 WC slot, now.)

56-50 SEA & TEX -0.5

The Sox going 4-5, 6 of them on the road, against the NL's three division leaders tells me that Breslow won't be a seller next week, but can avoid being a buyer who overpays.  

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

The Sox going 4-5, 6 of them on the road, against the NL's three division leaders tells me that Breslow won't be a seller next week, but can avoid being a buyer who overpays.  

"Can" and MUST!

I'd be fine with overpaying for a controlled pitcher, but with rentals, keep the returns within reason.

I'm not sure what sort of trade value these guys have, but some packaged together might net a nice rental:

Casas, Kelly, Guerrero, Winckowski, Grissom, DHam, Eaton, Sogard

Romero or Arias can be included for a top end rental type, but it better be a good one.

Rule 5's: Sandlin, Jordan, Bleis, Cespedes, Monegro, Mullins, Paez and Castro, ICoffey, Drohan, Hickey, Rosier, Uberstine

[Larry Cook]

Talked to some Washington fans and they have not read anything about a trade of gore to anybody!!!! 
 

are the Red Sox talking to cincy ?????

[moonslav59]

The Sox are likely talking to many teams about a SP'er, pen arm and an  inexpensive short term 1B fix.

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Talked to some Washington fans and they have not read anything about a trade of gore to anybody!!!! 
 

are the Red Sox talking to cincy ?????

Why Cincy?

[notin]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox are likely talking to many teams about a SP'er, pen arm and an  inexpensive short term 1B fix.

Emmanuel Clase is on administrative leave connected to sports betting.

Seth Lugo signed an extension with the Royals.

Scratch those two names off your lists…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why Cincy?

MSN posted a clickbait article about a swap of Jarren Duran for RHSP Andrew Abbott.  I don’t see Cincy going for it…

[notin]

The interesting fix might be 1b. Who are the candidates?

Yandy Diaz is the clear best option IMO.  I don’t buy into the whole “won’t trade within the division” angle.  With balanced schedules and 3 wild cards, division races have become somewhat muted.

Josh Naylor is a Mariner.  

Rhys Hoskins is injured.

Ryan O’Hearn stopped hitting two months ago.

Ty France stopped hitting two years ago.

Josh Bell? At some point, it’s not an improvement over Toro/Romy.

Carlos Santana? I suppose he’s still a target. Not sure he is an upgrade either. 
 

Who else is in play?
 

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

MSN posted a clickbait article about a swap of Jarren Duran for RHSP Andrew Abbott.  I don’t see Cincy going for it…

Enough of these buyer-buyer trade proposals (I hope)

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Emmanuel Clase is on administrative leave connected to sports betting.

Another win for Good Ole' Rob Manfred! 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Enough of these buyer-buyer trade proposals (I hope)

Clickbait gonna click…

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Emmanuel Clase is on administrative leave connected to sports betting.

Yee-ikes.

[Kimmi]

On 7/23/2025 at 3:41 PM, mvp 78 said:

You want him to have a short and terrible career? Get injured? Why? 

What's the point in holding ill will after a player leaves? It's over. Turn the page. 

I never wish injury on a player.

There's no point in holding ill will after a player leaves.  That said, hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.

[Kimmi]

On 7/25/2025 at 8:35 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Kimmi can verify this, but I think the numbers show that the only time bunting yields more runs is when there are runners at first at second and no outs.

Now, what if it's the bottom of the 10th or 11th and the road team didn't score in the top?  Should you bunt then?  I would guess the answer depends on who's up.

There is no situation in which giving up an out to advance the runners yields more runs, on average.  There is also no situation in which intentionally walking a batter yields less runs.

However, the chance of scoring one run does increase with a sac bunt provided that there is a runner on 2nd with no outs or runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs.

With all of that said, the decision to sac bunt or not depends a lot on who is up and who is on deck.

[Larry Cook]

Red Sox flight to Minnesota appears to have been a nasty one! 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox are likely talking to many teams about a SP'er, pen arm and an  inexpensive short term 1B fix.

Breslow even called me asking if I had any 1st base experience. When I told him my age, he said nevermind, but then asked if I had any younger neighbors that had ever played 1st. I told him I'd check and get back to him.

I'm pretty sure you'll also be getting a call soon, Moon.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Breslow even called me asking if I had any 1st base experience. When I told him my age, he said nevermind, but then asked if I had any younger neighbors that had ever played 1st. I told him I'd check and get back to him.

I'm pretty sure you'll also be getting a call soon, Moon.

I know a guy who knows a guy...

[moonslav59]

One team that is coming on strong and may keep the Sox from making the playoffs or advancing is the Rangers. When posters speak of the 2-3, maybe 4 holes the Sox have, take a look at their holes:

Ranger OPS listed in order of most PAs, this season (150+ PAs):

.661 Semien

.674 Ad Garcia

.767 Josh Smith

.728 Langford

.867 Seager

.679 Jung

.629 Helm

.659 Burger

.669 Higgy

.729 Carter

.492 Joc Pederson (and we thought DHam was bad.)

Their rotation looks solid, but many of their top starters have long histories of injury and or are getting older.

2.28 deGrom 118 IP (37 y/o)

3.78 Corbin 105 IP (35)

1.50 Nate 96 IP (35)

4.09 Leiter 92 (25)

2.34 Mahle 77 (30)

5.73 Rocker 60 (25)

They have a decent pen:

4.11 Luke Jackson (closer) 35 IP

2.98 Latz 54, 2.17 Milner 50, 3.02 Armstrong 48, 3.69 Webb 46, 2.68 Garcia 40

Their closer looks weak, but let's say they have no holes but him on the staff, and nobody gets hurt. I'd say they still have these positional weak areas:

.513 DH <.857 Sox but no Devers

.655 2B <.669 Sox

.679 RF <<<.813 Sox

.683 3B <<<.816 Sox

.685 C > .667 Sox (less Wong, recently)

.704 1B > .685 Sox

.706 CF < .767 Sox

Meh: .737 LF (Sox .803) and .751 SS (.690 Sox)

I'll compare the Mariners and other contenders, later.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One team that is coming on strong and may keep the Sox from making the playoffs or advancing is the Rangers.

Run differential of WC teams:

Texas +72 (2nd best in AL)

Sox +53

Rays +56

NY +93 (now w/o Judge)

SEA +22

[moonslav59]

That was a very tough loss to swallow.

Let's hope it doesn't dim the drive to win.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That was a very tough loss to swallow.

Let's hope it doesn't dim the drive to win.

Weissert isn't pitching the way he was earlier in the season. Hicks shouldn't be in a 9th inning role. 

It should just dim the idea of using those two to end a game. With Whitlock and Chapman out, not many other options. 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Weissert isn't pitching the way he was earlier in the season. Hicks shouldn't be in a 9th inning role. 

It should just dim the idea of using those two to end a game. With Whitlock and Chapman out, not many other options. 

People love to bad mouth Cora, but when you look at the names of our pen guys vs the results, I think the numbers speak volumes.

I was hoping that our starter depth would end up helping the pen, but with so many on the IL or out for the season and Fitts, Criswell and Houck struggling, our rotational depth is all gone.

We had this winter outlook:

Crochet

Houck (imploded, IL and now struggling to come back.)

Buehler (ouch)

Crawford (out for season)

Giolito (missed some early starts)

Bello

Dobbins (on IL, now)

Fitts (ouch)

Priester (traded April 7)

Sandoval (an August hopeful's season dashed)

Criswell, Wink, Whitlock (starter/pen types)

Then came Newcomb out of the blue.

Fulmer, Drohan, Murphy (longshots to begin with)

Now, we have 3:

Crochet, Giolito & Bello

 

[moonslav59]

How about the O's sweeping the Jays?

1. Are the O's making a move?

2. Are the Jays making a move?

[moonslav59]

My guess is Acala gets demoted and Harrison gets his shot at the rotation.

[moonslav59]

Texas and SEA are both losing, and the Sox are now just 5 GB the Jays and 1 behind NYY.

[Maxbialystock]

On 7/28/2025 at 1:25 PM, notin said:

The interesting fix might be 1b. Who are the candidates?

Yandy Diaz is the clear best option IMO.  I don’t buy into the whole “won’t trade within the division” angle.  With balanced schedules and 3 wild cards, division races have become somewhat muted.

Josh Naylor is a Mariner.  

Rhys Hoskins is injured.

Ryan O’Hearn stopped hitting two months ago.

Ty France stopped hitting two years ago.

Josh Bell? At some point, it’s not an improvement over Toro/Romy.

Carlos Santana? I suppose he’s still a target. Not sure he is an upgrade either. 
 

Who else is in play?
 

I think 1b is not the problem.  Yes, I'd rather have Devers at 1b, but that's water under the bridge. 

Also, FWIW, there are two other positions, DH and 2b, who hit worse than Toro/Gonzalez at 1b.  Yoshida stinks, and Ref is off his feed.  Hamilton makes them both look good.  

And right now I think the bullpen needs more help than the rotation.   The Sox 4th starter, Buehler, pitched 22.2 innings in July (4 starts) with an ERA of 3.57.  2 of those starts were quality starts.  Against the Phillies he went 7 IP with 1 ER.  Fitts is fitful, but when was the 5th starter not?

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think 1b is not the problem.  Yes, I'd rather have Devers at 1b, but that's water under the bridge. 

Also, FWIW, there are two other positions, DH and 2b, who hit worse than Toro/Gonzalez at 1b.  Yoshida stinks, and Ref is off his feed.  Hamilton makes them both look good.  

And right now I think the bullpen needs more help than the rotation.   The Sox 4th starter, Buehler, pitched 22.2 innings in July (4 starts) with an ERA of 3.57.  2 of those starts were quality starts.  Against the Phillies he went 7 IP with 1 ER.  Fitts is fitful, but when was the 5th starter not?

 

Toro has hit .592 in the last 4 weeks. He has had his chances at the big level, before. It makes sense to me to figure he is back to his norm, now.

While I agree DH has sucked, once Rafaela returns to CF, we will have an OF'er to DH over Yoshida. Rafaelas' return to CF happens when Mayer returns to 2B and fixes that problem. He's hit mid .700's since his first 9 games in MLB.

To me, 1B vs RHPs is our biggest positional weakness.

Refsnyder is "off his feed?"

.833 last 14 days

.771 last 28 days

.812 in 2026 (.914 v LHPs, which is why he is on the 26.)

 

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Toro has hit .592 in the last 4 weeks. He has had his chances at the big level, before. It makes sense to me to figure he is back to his norm, now.

 

This was always going to happen. Every year a player plays above his career average and people get fooled into thinking it'll last. I'd like Jordan to get a chance to show what he can do but there's more chance of me getting called up. 

I think we'll probably ride with the 1B situation. 

Pitching is where we will look I think. Apparently we're pestering the Twins at an annoying level. I don't see Duran going anywhere now, though, so I'm not sure what we're trading. The Rule 5 guys are not going to get it done. 

[Hitch]

Yankees get Austin Slater. They're making a few fringy moves. 

Righty Gage Ziehl (NYY 18th ranked prospect) going the other way.