A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Devers did almost nothing to win those 6 straight games.  Rookies Mayer and Anthony each did more than Devers.  I'm a Devers fan and think Breslow screwed him, but this trade makes all kinds of sense to me.  

Devers never started a single game this season; and it's the turnaround of the rotation that has also turned this season around.  Devers was a bystander. 

I think he had a good year--OPS .905 and 3d most rbi's in MLB--for the Sox, but I'm glad his salary is gone.  Also the animosity on both sides. 

Mayer had 2 hits in 1 game. Zero in the other 5. Anthony had 2 hits total. Raffy had 3 hits in the 5 games he played. To say that Anthony and Mayer did more is just kind of silly and showing a lot of bias. It's fine to turn the page, but at least be honest. 

[harmony]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I mentioned adding a prospect. I think, last winter, I suggested Casas and Abreu for Woo.

I remember someone really wanted Miller.

The Casas for Castillo deal was discussed more.

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/88909-a-realistic-view-of-the-2025-red-sox-part-i/page/46/#comment-2985935

The train to today's Garrett Crochet game awaits.

 

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

 

It's all about the pitching which, Sale notwithstanding, I think Breslow has done a good job with.  

I think it's entirely possible the Sox can have their cake and eat it too this year.  I like Devers a lot and think Breslow screwed him, but I don't at all mind dumping Raffy's salary.  

The Sox are on a 6 game winning streak and basically did it with no help from Devers.  The pitching did it.  And, if they stay good, the lineup will be fine.   Those 6 games were won without Bregman or Abreu, both of whom will return soon.  Rookie Mayer won 1 game with 2 freaking dingers, and rookie Anthony got a crucial 2 run double to win another.  Anthony got a dinger last night and then Duran tripled followed by Toro's single up the middle.  Toro and Gonzalez are both way better than Casas was when he was hurt.  Story and Rafaela's OPS's are both over .800 in June.  

I could of course be way wrong, but, even if that happens, I've had some had some absolutely fascinating moments for which I am grateful.  Among those are Devers' 3d most rbi's in MLB, a bunch of excellent defensive plays, watching Bregman and Crochet deliver on their salaries, Toro hitting way better than expected, Narvaez, the three rookies all in the same game (s).   I didn't even mind that Judge tied it in the 9th with a humungous dinger(after 3 K's)  against Crochet, who was going for a complete game.  The Sox won that too.  

Max, sometimes the pitchers win the games for you, sometimes the hitters do, sometimes it's a combo.  Over the long haul you need all those kinds of wins.  

And it's ever been thus in this wacky and wonderful game.  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

15 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Devers did almost nothing to win those 6 straight games.  Rookies Mayer and Anthony each did more than Devers.  I'm a Devers fan and think Breslow screwed him, but this trade makes all kinds of sense to me.  

Devers never started a single game this season; and it's the turnaround of the rotation that has also turned this season around.  Devers was a bystander. 

I think he had a good year--OPS .905 and 3d most rbi's in MLB--for the Sox, but I'm glad his salary is gone.  Also the animosity on both sides. 

Weak take.

And the six straight games are the only reason they are above .500?!!

How about their other 32 wins? 

Spin it how you like, but devers has a lot more to do with them being over .500 than mayer and anthony. Smh......

 

[moonslav59]

What's with the Sox and FA SP'er signings?

You could throw a dart at a board of pictures of FA pitchers in your price range and do better than we have done.

$21M/1 Buehler (looks like a disaster, so far)

$39M/2 Giolito (even if he pitches like his last 5 starts, the rest of the way, he's still overpaid.)

$10M/1 Kluber (plain horrible)

$10M/2 Paxton (one brief stretch of usefulness)

$7M/1 Wacha + $5M/1 Hill (worked out okay, but missed them down the stretch)

$10M/1 Richards (plain horrible)

$5M/1 + $6M/1 Martin Perez (did very well, as soon as he left BOS)

Although I view the Nate FA signing as an extension, it was technically a FA signing. That was a decent signing, but he still missed about 30-40% of his available starts.

The Price deal was not a good one.

Conversely, look at our trades for SP'ers:

A Miller for ERod

Cespedes for Porcello 

A boatload of prospects for Chris Sale.

A boatload of prospects for Crochet

Beeks for Nate

Workman & Hembree for Pivetta

Even the Pomeranz & Wink trades were better than our FA signings.

The recent Sale for Grissom trade is the counter on the trade front, but how many other major trades for SP'ers backfired?

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer had 2 hits in 1 game. Zero in the other 5. Anthony had 2 hits total. Raffy had 3 hits in the 5 games he played. To say that Anthony and Mayer did more is just kind of silly and showing a lot of bias. It's fine to turn the page, but at least be honest. 

To clarify.  I agree the rookies weren't so hot over the 6 games.  But Mayer, by himself, won 1 of them with the two dingers--plus of course great pitching by the Sox.  And Anthony had that absolutely crucial 2 run double to win another--plus of course more great pitching.  In the other 4 wins other Sox hitters made a difference.  But in my opinion Raffy was simply not needed in those 6 games.

If I have a bias, it's that the Sox are going nowhere this season without better pitching.  We can only hope that Raffy's departure will make another Crochet possible.  The Giants are the opposite.  They have the pitching but not enough hitting.  

And, by the way, I thought Devers was valuable as the DH and regularly recited his rbi total and his OPS.  I didn't want him moved to 1b because Toro/Gonzalez were fine there.   Devers played in every single game this season.  

But right now I think Breslow wanted him gone from the beginning of spring training.  He lied to Raffy repeatedly and jerked him around about 3b, DH, and 1b.  

[Maxbialystock]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What's with the Sox and FA SP'er signings?

You could throw a dart at a board of pictures of FA pitchers in your price range and do better than we have done.

$21M/1 Buehler (looks like a disaster, so far)

$39M/2 Giolito (even if he pitches like his last 5 starts, the rest of the way, he's still overpaid.)

$10M/1 Kluber (plain horrible)

$10M/2 Paxton (one brief stretch of usefulness)

$7M/1 Wacha + $5M/1 Hill (worked out okay, but missed them down the stretch)

$10M/1 Richards (plain horrible)

$5M/1 + $6M/1 Martin Perez (did very well, as soon as he left BOS)

Although I view the Nate FA signing as an extension, it was technically a FA signing. That was a decent signing, but he still missed about 30-40% of his available starts.

The Price deal was not a good one.

Conversely, look at our trades for SP'ers:

A Miller for ERod

Cespedes for Porcello 

A boatload of prospects for Chris Sale.

A boatload of prospects for Crochet

Beeks for Nate

Workman & Hembree for Pivetta

Even the Pomeranz & Wink trades were better than our FA signings.

The recent Sale for Grissom trade is the counter on the trade front, but how many other major trades for SP'ers backfired?

Point made.  

[moonslav59]

With so many recent prospect graduations, I thought maybe it would be a good idea to look at out team, in terms of age -the under 30 list:

Pitchers with some level of promise or proven skills:

17/18: Cason, Delzine, Reyes, Fajardo, Travieso

19: Valera

20: J Bello

21: Paez, Neely

22: Perales, Tolle, Clarke, Monegro, E Rivera, McShane, Holobetz, Ingrassia, Aita, Tygart

23: Harrison, Early, Carlson

24: Guerrero, Sandlin, Mullins, Wehunt

25: Dobbins, Fitts

26: Crochet, B Bello, Uberstine, Drohan

27: Slaten, Wink

28: Sandoval, Hicks, Criswell, Moran

29: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford

Everyday Players:

17/18: Ju. Gonzales, D Soto, Azocar, Cason, H Rivas, H Ramos, Pinto, Fermin

19: Arias, Cespedes, Y Rod, A Anderson, Nunez, Salazar

20: Jo Garcia, Alcantara, Encarnacion, Zanetello

21: Anthony, Romero, Bleis, Brannon

22: Mayer, Jh Garcia, Taylor, Jordan, Castro

23: Campbell, Riemer

24: Rafaela

25: Casas, Hickey, I Coffey, Y Cruz

26: Abreu, Narvaez, Mata

27: C Murphy, I Campbell, DHam, Sogard

28: Duran, Romy, Toro, Eaton

29: Wong

I see a lot of talent and promise on this list.

[Maxbialystock]

4 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Weak take.

And the six straight games are the only reason they are above .500?!!

How about their other 32 wins? 

Spin it how you like, but devers has a lot more to do with them being over .500 than mayer and anthony. Smh......

 

Agree completely on the other 32 wins.  By all means give Devers some credit for them.  He put up some great numbers this season, potentially his best ever at the plate.  Plus as DH he never missed a game.

But I must repeat myself.  To me the 6 straight wins were a huge turnaround. 

When Bregman was hurt on May 23, the Sox were 26-26.  By June 6--with Devers and without Bregman--they were 30-35 and the season was looking pretty grim.  Then, suddenly, the Sox win 6 in a row because of stupendously good pitching.  Breslow and Abreu were on the IL, and, as I said, in those 6 games Devers was not a factor.

The Sox are currently 6th in MLB in runs scored and 20th in team ERA.  We will miss Devers, but our biggest problem is pitching.  Plus Abreu is due back this week and Bregman in early July (we hope).  Plus those rookies could come around.  Plus Story and Rafaela have OPS's in the 800's this month.  Hope is not a method, but it's nice to have some.  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree completely on the other 32 wins.  By all means give Devers some credit for them.  He put up some great numbers this season, potentially his best ever at the plate.  Plus as DH he never missed a game.

But I must repeat myself.  To me the 6 straight wins were a huge turnaround. 

When Bregman was hurt on May 23, the Sox were 26-26.  By June 6--with Devers and without Bregman--they were 30-35 and the season was looking pretty grim.  Then, suddenly, the Sox win 6 in a row because of stupendously good pitching.  Breslow and Abreu were on the IL, and, as I said, in those 6 games Devers was not a factor.

The Sox are currently 6th in MLB in runs scored and 20th in team ERA.  We will miss Devers, but our biggest problem is pitching.  Plus Abreu is due back this week and Bregman in early July (we hope).  Plus those rookies could come around.  Plus Story and Rafaela have OPS's in the 800's this month.  Hope is not a method, but it's nice to have some.  

Blah, blah, blah.

You're the same poster that claimed the sox had a better offense than the Yanks. Smh......

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree completely on the other 32 wins.  By all means give Devers some credit for them.  He put up some great numbers this season, potentially his best ever at the plate.  Plus as DH he never missed a game.

But I must repeat myself.  To me the 6 straight wins were a huge turnaround. 

When Bregman was hurt on May 23, the Sox were 26-26.  By June 6--with Devers and without Bregman--they were 30-35 and the season was looking pretty grim.  Then, suddenly, the Sox win 6 in a row because of stupendously good pitching.  Breslow and Abreu were on the IL, and, as I said, in those 6 games Devers was not a factor.

The Sox are currently 6th in MLB in runs scored and 20th in team ERA.  We will miss Devers, but our biggest problem is pitching.  Plus Abreu is due back this week and Bregman in early July (we hope).  Plus those rookies could come around.  Plus Story and Rafaela have OPS's in the 800's this month.  Hope is not a method, but it's nice to have some.  

Max, even you know that citing the Red Sox' ranks in offense can't mask their season-long inconsistencies -- and that was with Devers.

Boston is 3rd in AL runs per game at 4.73, just behind Detroit with 4.84. But the Sox have scored three runs or less 35 times -- almost half their games -- while the Tigers have scored three runs or less 27 times... and have the best record in baseball.

I'm pissed that Raffy forced Breslow to trade him, and just as pissed the front office beat him like a bongo to get out of his contract. But just because he was a platoon rookie in 2018 doesn't mean he wasn't a special hitter that stepped up more than just about any human with a bat.

Let's not overlook the stretch run of 2021, when an injured one-armed Raffy basically homered the Red Sox into the playoffs. Who's going to do that -- with two good arms -- now?

 

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, cp176 said:

On Casas, if nothing else as he rehabs, I hope that he has learned something from this Devers horror show.  Be a baseball player.  I’m not particularly interested in ever again listening to him as he talks to the press.  Should have signed the deal the Sox offered I think.  I’m glad he didn’t.  He is fortunate that he likely gets a redo.  

Casas will have missed the vast majority of 2 full seasons of baseball!!  Do we know he can be the player he was projected to become????

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Casas will have missed the vast majority of 2 full seasons of baseball!!  Do we know he can be the player he was projected to become????

We know he can’t at this point. At his best, he’s a 2 WAR guy.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree completely on the other 32 wins.  By all means give Devers some credit for them.  He put up some great numbers this season, potentially his best ever at the plate.  Plus as DH he never missed a game.

But I must repeat myself.  To me the 6 straight wins were a huge turnaround. 

When Bregman was hurt on May 23, the Sox were 26-26.  By June 6--with Devers and without Bregman--they were 30-35 and the season was looking pretty grim.  Then, suddenly, the Sox win 6 in a row because of stupendously good pitching.  Breslow and Abreu were on the IL, and, as I said, in those 6 games Devers was not a factor.

The Sox are currently 6th in MLB in runs scored and 20th in team ERA.  We will miss Devers, but our biggest problem is pitching.  Plus Abreu is due back this week and Bregman in early July (we hope).  Plus those rookies could come around.  Plus Story and Rafaela have OPS's in the 800's this month.  Hope is not a method, but it's nice to have some.  

If you want to go by small sample sizes, look at our offense in the last 3 games, without Devers.

Before the trade, the team scored 355 runs. Devers score 47 and knocked in 58. Minus the HRs that count as an RBI and Run, he accounted for 90 of those 355 runs! 

That's over 25% of all our run scored, while only being 1/9th of the line-up. BTW, 1/9th is 11% of the line-up.

Let's not minimize how much of an impact Devers had on our offense. Yes, we can win with continued good pitching and improved defense, but we need to take up some of the slack our offense just lost.

Bregman and Abreu's return should help, but they counted a lot in our previous offense over 2025, already.

Bregman 67 Runs (32+35-11) 19%

Abreu 47 runs (28+32-13) 13%

We will need to make a trade or hope everyone step it up, like Story has been doing. None of the 3 kids are jumping out as the next Fred Lynn. (Mayer has done fine in his tiny sample size.)

Just when Rafaela creeps over .700, and we start thinking, maybe he can hit well enough to at least not be a drag on the offense, he slips back down to .680 or worse.

Campbell showed us some enormous potential, over his first week or so, but he's looked lost, almost the whole rest of the season.

Anthony may just be an adjustment or two away from being a force, but we have no reason to expect him to be great- year one.

We could easily think Narvaez has overachieved and could regress.

Duran has regressed as some of us expected, but we could just as easily think he could hit like 2024, down the stretch.

Abreu could also take on a heavier load. Bregman may bat second, now, so let's see how he ends the season.

Can we really count on Toro/Romy to hit over .800 over the next 3.5 months?

I'm hoping Ref continues being Ref, but we can't expect more from him.

We will likely need several players to improve on O for us to have a legit shot at anything special, this fall. The loss of Devers is monumental.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We know he can’t at this point. At his best, he’s a 2 WAR guy.

He really should be viewed as a DH/ emergency back-up 1Bman, going forward, and with Yoshida still in the system, I'm not sure we can afford to have both on the 40, let alone the 26.

I'm far from giving up on Tristan's bat. Unlike Max, I think he'd have had a fine year on O, had he stayed healthy. I'm also at the end of the rope on wishing he stays healthy. I'm not okay with looking at a Toro/Romy platoon in 2026 at 1B. I have more faith in handing a 1Bman's mitt to Jh Garcia and giving him a shot. (I hope they prove me wrong and earn those roles for 2026, but I would not bet on it, even if given 3:1 odds.)

[moonslav59]

Let's be honest: which of these players do we have higher hopes on now, vs right before the season started?

Significantly Higher: Bregman, Abreu, Narvaez, Crochet (despite having high expectations in March) Dobbins, Chapman, Wilson, Toro/Romy

Better: Rafaela, Bello, Whitlock, Weissert, Story & Gio (only because I had low expectations in March)

About the Same: Refsnyder, Slaten, Mayer, Anthony, Fitts, Bernardino & Crawford

Slightly Worse: Duran, Campbell, Guerrero, Kelly & Wink

Worse: Houck, Casas, Wong, DHam, Criswell, Hendriks

Am I wrong on any of these?

[Larry Cook]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's be honest: which of these players do we have higher hopes on now, vs right before the season started?

Significantly Higher: Bregman, Abreu, Narvaez, Crochet (despite having high expectations in March) Dobbins, Chapman, Wilson, Toro/Romy

Better: Rafaela, Bello, Whitlock, Weissert, Story & Gio (only because I had low expectations in March)

About the Same: Refsnyder, Slaten, Mayer, Anthony, Fitts, Bernardino & Crawford

Slightly Worse: Duran, Campbell, Guerrero, Kelly & Wink

Worse: Houck, Casas, Wong, DHam, Criswell, Hendriks

Am I wrong on any of these?

I think this is a fair representation. The narveaz trade was pure gold!!  Should be in a category called “absolutely crushing expectations” 

[Maxbialystock]

10 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Max, sometimes the pitchers win the games for you, sometimes the hitters do, sometimes it's a combo.  Over the long haul you need all those kinds of wins.  

And it's ever been thus in this wacky and wonderful game.  

Absolutely.  In our best seasons it's exactly like that.  2004 was a hitting team, but that bloody sock guy wasn't half bad.  And so on.

That said, the Sox were 30-35 until the good pitching kicked in.  Now they are 2 over .500 despite missing Bregman, Abreu, Devers, Casas, and "good" Campbell.  So for now I'm fine with "just good enough" hitting--provided the pitching stays good.  I think the hitting will get better when Bregman and Abreu return, when Mayer and especially Anthony deliver on their promise/talent, and when Toro, Story, Narvaez, and Duran continue to be just good enough.  

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

I think this is a fair representation. The narveaz trade was pure gold!!  Should be in a category called “absolutely crushing expectations” 

Fair enough. I'm not bragging, but I had high expectations on his defense and brought up the fact that he had decent farm numbers on offense (high OBP and 15-20 HR power if a FT player.)

That being said, he blasted my expectations for year one. The guy just might win ROY.

[Larry Cook]

Today’s 3 to 1 win at Seattle is proof that great starting pitching and timely hitting can win you a lot of games!!!!!!

[Larry Cook]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Fair enough. I'm not bragging, but I had high expectations on his defense and brought up the fact that he had decent farm numbers on offense (high OBP and 15-20 HR power if a FT player.)

That being said, he blasted my expectations for year one. The guy just might win ROY.

If narveaz wins rookie of the year, cashman will feel some heat in new York!!! 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Absolutely.  In our best seasons it's exactly like that.  2004 was a hitting team, but that bloody sock guy wasn't half bad.  And so on.

That said, the Sox were 30-35 until the good pitching kicked in.  Now they are 2 over .500 despite missing Bregman, Abreu, Devers, Casas, and "good" Campbell.  So for now I'm fine with "just good enough" hitting--provided the pitching stays good.  I think the hitting will get better when Bregman and Abreu return, when Mayer and especially Anthony deliver on their promise/talent, and when Toro, Story, Narvaez, and Duran continue to be just good enough.  

If I had strong feeling our pitching can hold up, like this, I might be as optimistic, but we are talking about Gio, here. We have our hopes pinned on Dobbins and a couple senior citizen pen guys.

I actually have more hope in Sandoval and maybe Crawford or Houck than I do in Gio, Buehler and Fitts. It's nice to have more than one or two guys to pin our hopes on, but I can't call it anything more than just "hopes." (I don't have a ton of confidence in our staff, based on 6 games.)

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If narveaz wins rookie of the year, cashman will feel some heat in new York!!! 

He already must be, but Austin Wells is doing just fine, too.

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I actually have more hope in Sandoval and maybe Crawford or Houck than I do in Gio, Buehler and Fitts. It's nice to have more than one or two guys to pin our hopes on, but I can't call it anything more than just "hopes." (I don't have a ton of confidence in our staff, based on 6 games.)

This next start is crucial for buehler’s trade market 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

This next start is crucial for buehler’s trade market 

I'm not so sure we will be sellers.

I suppose we could be both sellers and buyers, and Buehler might be traded.

[moonslav59]

Houck pitched one inning for Woo, today: 1 hits, 1 run, 1BB, 0 Ks

[Hitch]

Another huge win (and series win). We need the offence to step up soon.

[Larry Cook]

25 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Another huge win (and series win). We need the offence to step up soon.

Very nice series win in Seattle!!  Sometimes you have to tip your hat to superior pitching by the Seattle pitchers 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Very nice series win in Seattle!!  Sometimes you have to tip your hat to superior pitching by the Seattle pitchers 

Let it be known: we CAN beat good pitching and good teams.

[iortiz]

Can someone explain to me the situation of Yoshida like a 10 yo please?