A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why in the name of God do you want to move Bregman?

I think some feel we might as well kick the can on 2025 (not me) and trade anything and everything not tied down for 2026 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

On 6/15/2025 at 8:44 PM, Larry Cook said:

What kind of trade market exists for Bregman???

I think many teams do not mind spending on 2 month deals, but the threat of Bregman coming back at $40M will scare most teams away.

Players like Chapman, Wilson and maybe even Buehler and Gio might get more interest.

Unlike some past summers, we actually do have some players other teams will want.

I hope we are buyers, but much can change by the end of July. We just saw the biggest change in the history of June go down.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ask the CBO.

Breslow suggested that the Red Sox would be a better team without Devers, allowing the front office and clubhouse to move in the same direction with a "functional and complete team."

“I do think there’s a real chance that at the end of the season, we’re looking back and we’ve won more games than we otherwise would have," he said.

He also thought trading sale was a good idea and signed gio instead, so......

[moonslav59]

I kinda feel a big trade was going to happen, especially when Abreu return applied the squeeze. Most of us felt it would be Duran or Abreu, so this Devers deal came out of the cloud. 

Opening up the DH slot does clear the OF logjam, for now, and I do think this was one reason we made the trade, now. Again, it comes down to the will they spend the money and how questions, but in some ways it does make sense to trade Devers and not Duran, Abreu or Rafaela.

I just listened to the SP's podcast, and they said much or what we all have said. They brought up the Devers comment about how his  boss needed to "do his job," and how Cora said "He's not here anymore," after Devers cried about Bloom's promise to keep him at 3B. The biggest issue they spoke to was that no DH deserves that kind of money and that most "models show Devers will not age well" and that his contract is not just "underwater," but it is in "dark red" territory. 

Hicks was about some money coming back, but we tried to sign him, before, so they liked him as a reliever for a while- has a "big FB." They think SF insisted we take his contract.  The Harrison aspect shows a lot of promise, but as of now, he's just a 6th starter/RP. Been up and down as a starter. They think he'd be our top ranked prospect, if he had not graduated. He has not been consistent. FB is very good (2 mph higher than avg), but his secondary stuff needs improvement. He checks a lot of boxes, but needs a wider pitch mix. His slurry has been one of the worst pitches in MLB and his change-up is thrown 10% of the time. If we'd gotten him for someone other than Devers, we'd be "thrilled." He's probably the centerpoint of the deal, and maybe we can work with him to improve the mix. James Tibbs was #13, last year and was picked right after Braden Montgomery. Fringe top 100 guy with a high BB rate and some power. (7 Hrs in May.) His exit velo is close to Mayer and JH Garcia. Almost all the data points and rates look good. They named a bunch. No "stand out tool." They think he'll be 6 to 8 ranked near Jh G and Valera. (Dobbins graduates, next month. Bello was a late signing and repeated DSL. He is age 20 and is off to a great start, this year. They think he'll be in Salem by August. Has high spin rates, misses bats (28K in 18 IP) and a high GB rate. Somebody said he's the 5th best pitcher in the whole FCL complex, but he's one of the oldest pitchers there.

They viewed Devers as an "obstacle to the long term future plan." There is "no longer an issue finding playing time for our rookies." They said other teams would have wanted Devers, but only if we paid a chunk of it, and obviously the Sox wanted no part of paying for Devers to play elsewhere. They said this trade does NOT put them under the tax line, unless they blow up the rest of the roster, after this.

The hardest part was the "timing" and that does not seem to outweigh the face value pluses of this deal. Our line-up will be mostly pre-arb, even after Bregman and Abreu return. They asked, "Without Devers, can you see this team making a strong run?" They think Bregman will bat second, when he returns and wonder if KC will end up playing 1B, when Toro's bubble bursts.

They didn't say this, but would this be the final product? C Narvaez, 1B KC, 2B Story, SS Mayer, 3B Bregman, LF Anthony, CF Rafaela, RF Abreu/Ref, DH Duran. They think we end up trading Penrod for something like what we got for Booser. They mentioned the return of Murphy, who is "looking better than ever" as a  reason for DFA'ing Penrod. When Murphy is activated, someone else needs to be DFA'd or traded.

This is NOT the Mookie Betts trade which was ownership driven. "This was Brez driven." This is his defining moment. It could be the "first nail in his coffin." He needs the rookies to produce, now. The Nomar trade is a "better comp," although that trade made the Sox better that year. This one is about the future- both in terms of finding playing time for the kids and the freeing up the budget for 9 more years.

They still feel an OF'er will be traded, but not until winter. They see Rafaela as the one that stays.

They think Bregman gets a new contract and maybe during this year, then they extend Mayer and Anthony. The offseason becomes crucial and some kind of splash deal has to happen, not counting bringing Bregman back.

They ended with... They moved Devers before it became impossible to move him. The situation became unenterable. The teams wanting him would have dwindled. This is not going to be about what we got back for him: it was about getting out when they could. That's baseball, now.

 

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

He also thought trading sale was a good idea and signed gio instead, so......

The Sale trade made some sense, at the time. GMs are judges in hindsight, and that whole situation gets a clear F in that light.

All three aspects of the trade ended up wrong:

1) Sale wins the CYA. (He did miss the playoffs, but is looking pretty good, this season, too.)

2) Grissom sucks. (This has very little hope of changing)

3) The Gio signing went south, almost day one. (Maybe this is changing, as we speak.)

[dgalehouse]

Breslow is aggressive. Mistakes will be made. The Sale trade was a blunder. There is no getting around that. But Breslow has made some very good moves as well.  The team is shaping up nicely. 

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Have you given up on the playoffs for 2025?

No! I think this team was woefully divided between the “win now” side (headlined by Cora and Devers and Bregman) and the  “build a sustainable winning program” (headlined by bres-slow) 

it looks like Henry had decided to follow bres-slow so the next logical step is to move the last two veterans that want to win now: 

Bregman to Detroit 

story to Atlanta!!!

I think we are 2 starters way from a perennial contending juggernaut !!!!  

[Larry Cook]

Abreau in the Worcester lineup and batting 2nd tonight 

[dgalehouse]

I don't see any good reason why the Sox won't, at the very least, make the playoffs this year. Look around the American League. Who are the playoff teams?  

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Breslow is aggressive. Mistakes will be made. The Sale trade was a blunder. There is no getting around that. But Breslow has made some very good moves as well.  The team is shaping up nicely. 

Agreed, and the Sale trade looked fine at the time. The guy wasn't able to stay on the field.

[dgalehouse]

Bregman has certainly met and probably exceeded expectations. There is no conceivable reason to trade him now. The same thing applies to Chapman. I guess some fans just love the idea of being " sellers  ". 

[Maxbialystock]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Abreau in the Worcester lineup and batting 2nd tonight 

 

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

No! I think this team was woefully divided between the “win now” side (headlined by Cora and Devers and Bregman) and the  “build a sustainable winning program” (headlined by bres-slow) 

it looks like Henry had decided to follow bres-slow so the next logical step is to move the last two veterans that want to win now: 

Bregman to Detroit 

story to Atlanta!!!

I think we are 2 starters way from a perennial contending juggernaut !!!!  

It's all about the pitching which, Sale notwithstanding, I think Breslow has done a good job with.  

I think it's entirely possible the Sox can have their cake and eat it too this year.  I like Devers a lot and think Breslow screwed him, but I don't at all mind dumping Raffy's salary.  

The Sox are on a 6 game winning streak and basically did it with no help from Devers.  The pitching did it.  And, if they stay good, the lineup will be fine.   Those 6 games were won without Bregman or Abreu, both of whom will return soon.  Rookie Mayer won 1 game with 2 freaking dingers, and rookie Anthony got a crucial 2 run double to win another.  Anthony got a dinger last night and then Duran tripled followed by Toro's single up the middle.  Toro and Gonzalez are both way better than Casas was when he was hurt.  Story and Rafaela's OPS's are both over .800 in June.  

I could of course be way wrong, but, even if that happens, I've had some had some absolutely fascinating moments for which I am grateful.  Among those are Devers' 3d most rbi's in MLB, a bunch of excellent defensive plays, watching Bregman and Crochet deliver on their salaries, Toro hitting way better than expected, Narvaez, the three rookies all in the same game (s).   I didn't even mind that Judge tied it in the 9th with a humungous dinger(after 3 K's)  against Crochet, who was going for a complete game.  The Sox won that too.  

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Breslow is aggressive. Mistakes will be made. The Sale trade was a blunder. There is no getting around that. But Breslow has made some very good moves as well.  The team is shaping up nicely. 

Nicely balanced, and of course I agree.   He's been more right than wrong.  He was wrong in how he dealt with Raffy, but not wrong to trade him.  He should get tons of credit for the pitching as well as Bregman and Narvaez.  It's even possible he will be or is supportive of Cora.  

The team is indeed shaping up nicely and the playoffs no longer "wait til next year." 

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think some feel we might as well kick the can on 2025 (not me) and trade anything and everything not tied down for 2026 and beyond.

Kicking the can on 2025 would be foolish with the pitching looking this good and Bregman and Abreu soon to return.   I would love to see an infield of Bregman, Mayer, Story, and Toro and an outfield of Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu, but I wouldn't mind other options.  

More to the point, I think Breslow and the FO see it that way.  For one thing, the attendance at Fenway seems to be picking up.  Carpe diem.  

[Maxbialystock]

On 6/16/2025 at 8:56 AM, dannycater said:

LOL, right.

Great response!!  

[Maxbialystock]

29 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Bregman has certainly met and probably exceeded expectations. There is no conceivable reason to trade him now. The same thing applies to Chapman. I guess some fans just love the idea of being " sellers  ". 

They could trade Bregman if he says he wants to go elsewhere next season.  That's far-fetched, but possible.  

I agree that this team should not be sellers this season.  Thanks to the pitching, the postseason is no longer just a hope.  

[Maxbialystock]

7 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So you think the sox would be 2 games over .500 without devers?

Devers did almost nothing to win those 6 straight games.  Rookies Mayer and Anthony each did more than Devers.  I'm a Devers fan and think Breslow screwed him, but this trade makes all kinds of sense to me.  

Devers never started a single game this season; and it's the turnaround of the rotation that has also turned this season around.  Devers was a bystander. 

I think he had a good year--OPS .905 and 3d most rbi's in MLB--for the Sox, but I'm glad his salary is gone.  Also the animosity on both sides. 

[Larry Cook]

I am hopeful the Red Sox pitching continues to be outstanding while our hitters get settled and start putting up more runs 

[Hugh2]

What if?

 

what if the Red Sox had traded Tristan Casas and asked Rafael Devers to play 1st base this offseason and not DH?

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

What if?

 

what if the Red Sox had traded Tristan Casas and asked Rafael Devers to play 1st base this offseason and not DH?

That could have gone badly too.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

What if?

what if the Red Sox had traded Tristan Casas and asked Rafael Devers to play 1st base this offseason and not DH?

That's what I must have posted dozens of times, this past winter, and more in previous seasons. I also suggested Casas to DH, but that was when we thought Yoshida might be able to be an okay LF'er, and there was no OF logjam. In fact, we were trading for or signing one and done OF'ers from Renfroe to Duvall to O'Neill to "bridge us" to the current jam.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That could have gone badly too.

It may have, but at least Devers would have the winter and spring to prepare.

This talk of his willingness to play 1B in SF, if true, really shows that this was all about posturing and making a statement than any real displeasure in actually having to play 1B.

If it's true, I'm changing my blame pie chart to over 50% on Devers.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That could have gone badly too.

And Casas would be much harder to trade while getting anything back…

[moonslav59]

Sox ERA in the last 6 games: 1.15 (2.38 FIP)

The 6 before this? 6.27 (4.64 FIP)

Let's hope this corner we turned is onto a long road.

[moonslav59]

Last 4 Week ERA

2.70 Crochet 33 IP/5 GS

2.89 Bello 28 IP/ 5GS

2.84 Giolito 25 IP/5GS

3.91 Dobbins 23 IP/3GS & 2 as RP

6.14  Buehler 22 IP/ 5GS

__________________________

Pen ERAs in order of most IP

0.69 Whitlock 13 IP

2.13 Weissert 13 IP

0.75 Chapman 12 IP

1.86 Wilson 10 IP

6.52 Bernardino 10 IP

4.32 Guerrero 8 IP

2.84 Kelly 6 IP

0.00 Slaten 5 IP (on IL)

1.93 Criswell 5 IP

0.00 Burdi 3 IP (on IL)

 

[moonslav59]

Had we traded Casas for Woo or Castillo, we might be in 1st place, even if we had to add a prospect. The idea of forcing Yoshida on them was a good one, and maybe if we offered more money, we might have got to a yes.

Woo is at a 3.39 ERA in 13 GS and 82 IP (.623 OPS Against)

Castillo is at 3.29 in 14 GS and 79 IP (.700 OPS Against)

Both have dropped off after nice starts to 2025. Last 4 weeks:

.790 OPSA Woo (5.11 ERA)

.809 Castillo (3.52 ERA)

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Had we traded Casas for Woo or Castillo, we might be in 1st place, even if we had to add a prospect. The idea of forcing Yoshida on them was a good one, and maybe if we offered more money, we might have got to a yes.

Woo is at a 3.39 ERA in 13 GS and 82 IP (.623 OPS Against)

Castillo is at 3.29 in 14 GS and 79 IP (.700 OPS Against)

Both have dropped off after nice starts to 2025. Last 4 weeks:

.790 OPSA Woo (5.11 ERA)

.809 Castillo (3.52 ERA)

It takes two sides to agree in order to make a deal!!  We can’t change the past, but we can learn from it and make more informed decisions this trade deadline and especially this offseason. 
 

desperate Dave is looking for an outfielder and a lefty reliever!!  We have Duran and Chapman. Desperate Dave has painter in the minor leagues !!!!!!!

[harmony]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Had we traded Casas for Woo or Castillo, we might be in 1st place, even if we had to add a prospect. The idea of forcing Yoshida on them was a good one, and maybe if we offered more money, we might have got to a yes.

Woo is at a 3.39 ERA in 13 GS and 82 IP (.623 OPS Against)

Castillo is at 3.29 in 14 GS and 79 IP (.700 OPS Against)

Both have dropped off after nice starts to 2025. Last 4 weeks:

.790 OPSA Woo (5.11 ERA)

.809 Castillo (3.52 ERA)

Last offseason Seattle was highly, highly unlikely to trade five years of Bryan Woo for four years of Triston Casas:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mariners-turned-down-triston-casas-trade-offer-from-red-sox.html

Entering Tuesday's game with an ERA+ of 93, the 2025 Mariners may hinge their fate on the recent returns of starters Logan Gilbert and George Kirby from the injured list. The M's were second in the league with an OPS+ of 111.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, harmony said:

Last offseason Seattle was highly, highly unlikely to trade five years of Bryan Woo for four years of Triston Casas:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mariners-turned-down-triston-casas-trade-offer-from-red-sox.html

Entering Tuesday's game with an ERA+ of 93, the 2025 Mariners may hinge their fate on the recent returns of starters Logan Gilbert and George Kirby from the injured list. The M's were second in the league with an OPS+ of 111.

I mentioned adding a prospect. I think, last winter, I suggested Casas and Abreu for Woo.

I remember someone really wanted Miller.

The Casas for Castillo deal was discussed more.

[cp176]

On Casas, if nothing else as he rehabs, I hope that he has learned something from this Devers horror show.  Be a baseball player.  I’m not particularly interested in ever again listening to him as he talks to the press.  Should have signed the deal the Sox offered I think.  I’m glad he didn’t.  He is fortunate that he likely gets a redo.