A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[dgalehouse]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Poorly defining a stat isn't an argument against said stat. 

Oh. Okay.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

0.2 DHam 0.1, 0.3 (Decent utility player)

0.1 Toro 0.0, 0.1 (Should have has better depth)

0.0 Mayer 0.0, 0.0 (Seems to be a plus, so far)

0.1 Winkowski 0.2, -0.1 (Still in Cora's doghouse?)

-0.2 Criswell -0,1, -0.3 (Should be a starter)

To nitpick as always: 

Hamilton isn't decent anymore. He could be DFA'd.

Toro was fine as depth as he wasn't even signed to be on the 40 man. He's even played well when called up. The backups have performed better than Casas.

Mayer has shown good defense, but that's about it. We haven't really seen even a spark at the plate. 

Winckowski is in the org doghouse, not Cora's. Cora is happy to churn through him. 

Criswell is fine as a bulk inning reliever. Sox don't have enough of them right now. I'd rather Fitts and Dobbins start than Criswell. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To nitpick as always: 

Hamilton isn't decent anymore. He could be DFA'd.

Toro was fine as depth as he wasn't even signed to be on the 40 man. He's even played well when called up. The backups have performed better than Casas.

Mayer has shown good defense, but that's about it. We haven't really seen even a spark at the plate. 

Winckowski is in the org doghouse, not Cora's. Cora is happy to churn through him. 

Criswell is fine as a bulk inning reliever. Sox don't have enough of them right now. I'd rather Fitts and Dobbins start than Criswell. 

Criswell has been a better starter than reliever and in larger sample sizes than Toro and Mayer.

I'd replace Gio with Criswell, but that still leaves his starting over one of Fitts & Dobbins, so point well taken. (Unless Bello to the pen... LOL)

I'd still rather have a healthy Casas than Toro & Romy atg 1B. I'm not one who thinks Casas would have stayed that cold, all year.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Rubbish.

I agree, cora's record since 2021 is rubbish.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hamilton isn't decent anymore. He could be DFA'd. 

DHam is a slow starter and has hit .708 after his first 13 games, this year. He has 10 SBs in those 24 games and plays better 2B defense than KC and others. He is a decent utility player, except for his poor SS defense.

If it wasn't for out 1B situation, Toro, Romy and eaton would all be ahead of DHam on the next-to-be-DFA list. I'd DFA Noda or Sogard or one of the 3 I just mentioned before DHam.

I'd rather have DHam playing than Story, too. (Mayer at SS, DHam at 2B v R and Story/Campbell at 2B v L, but that ain't happening.)

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I agree, cora's record since 2021 is rubbish.

So was the roster he was handed, until this season.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

DHam is a slow starter and has hit .708 after his first 13 games, this year. He has 10 SBs in those 24 games and plays better 2B defense than KC and others. He is a decent utility player, except for his poor SS defense.

If it wasn't for out 1B situation, Toro, Romy and eaton would all be ahead of DHam on the next-to-be-DFA list. I'd DFA Noda or Sogard or one of the 3 I just mentioned before DHam.

I'd rather have DHam playing than Story, too. (Mayer at SS, DHam at 2B v R and Story/Campbell at 2B v L, but that ain't happening.)

If you can only play 2b, YOU ARE NOT A UTILITY PLAYER! 

Hamilton is a platoon 2b. That's it. If anything, he and Story or Campbell should be sharing 2b for the remainder of the year.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Criswell has been a better starter than reliever and in larger sample sizes than Toro and Mayer.

I'd replace Gio with Criswell, but that still leaves his starting over one of Fitts & Dobbins, so point well taken. (Unless Bello to the pen... LOL)

I'd still rather have a healthy Casas than Toro & Romy atg 1B. I'm not one who thinks Casas would have stayed that cold, all year.

Even if Criswell has been a better starter than a reliever, I'd take the other 5 over him at the moment (taking Gio out of the rotation of course). 

[jdc69]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So was the roster he was handed, until this season.

So what are your thoughts now? Its not all about roster. They don't have a team of analytics because only the roster matters.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you can only play 2b, YOU ARE NOT A UTILITY PLAYER! 

Hamilton is a platoon 2b. That's it. If anything, he and Story or Campbell should be sharing 2b for the remainder of the year.

He can play SS and maybe 3B. I think they tried him in the OF, but we have 10 guys ahead of him, there. You don't have to be a great defender to be "utility," but it does help, I agree. Our past utility infielders were often worse on D than DHam.

His ability to be a PR is a value, too. He has some pop, but not much.

He's down past the top 5 players to be DFA'd on my list. Besides, he'd be traded and not DFA'd.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He can play SS and maybe 3B. I think they tried him in the OF, but we have 10 guys ahead of him, there. You don't have to be a great defender to be "utility," but it does help, I agree. Our past utility infielders were often worse on D than DHam.

His ability to be a PR is a value, too. He has some pop, but not much.

He's down past the top 5 players to be DFA'd on my list. Besides, he'd be traded and not DFA'd.

He can't play 3b or OF, moon. Stop kidding yourself. 

[notin]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you can only play 2b, YOU ARE NOT A UTILITY PLAYER! 

Hamilton is a platoon 2b. That's it. If anything, he and Story or Campbell should be sharing 2b for the remainder of the year.

He’s a 2b/PR that can play SS in an emergency.  Like if the ballpark is on fire, you can send Hamilton out to play SS…

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

So what are your thoughts now? Its not all about roster. They don't have a team of analytics because only the roster matters.

My thoughts are that I don''t blame the manager for being handed weak and highly flawed rosters for 6 seasons (2019 to 2024.) Yes, 2021's roster was flawed, too, but we put everything together and made a solid run.

I think the 2025 roster is good enough to be a playoff team, and I have said Cora can be partially responsible for the letdown. We did lose a big chunk of the rotation, started the season with an awful pen on paper (pun intended) and then lost Bregman and Casas. The total implosion by Houck is not Cora's fault. (Giving him 9 starts might be.)

No, it's not all about rosters, but with the rosters Cora was handed for those 6 years, coming withing a few outs of a trip to the WS in 1 season is about the best I could expect. Maybe 2 playoff trips could have been expected, and Cora got one. I'm not hanging him for that.

I understand the criticism, and many feel wins is the bottom line on everything. I guess the Rockies would be a playoff team with a great manager.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He can't play 3b or OF, moon. Stop kidding yourself. 

True, 1.1 innings at 3B is not a 3Bman, but he has played 69 OF innings, where we don't need him. He does have more MLB innings at SS than 2B and had way more in the minors. BTW, I did say "maybe." It's about the same as saying "Maybe Campbell or Anthony can play 1B."

Many "utility players are only middle infielders, and few can run like he does.

I'd keep him around ahead of Sogard, Eaton, Noda, Burdi and Toro, if we could get Devers or Campbell to play 1B. He might be tied with Penrod. That's #6, maybe.

 

[dgalehouse]

I think the fact is that much of this comes down to personal likes and dislikes. If, for whatever reason, we like someone we will make allowances for poor results and tend to excuse things that we otherwise would not. And the opposite is true as well. Not much leeway for those we don't like.  It's just human nature.

[Old Red]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He can't play 3b or OF, moon. Stop kidding yourself. 

Playing a position, and playing a position well are two different things.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I think the fact is that much of this comes down to personal likes and dislikes. If, for whatever reason, we like someone we will make allowances for poor results and tend to excuse things that we otherwise would not. And the opposite is true as well. Not much leeway for those we don't like.  It's just human nature.

Yes, we're all biased observers when it comes to our own team.

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

My thoughts are that I don''t blame the manager for being handed weak and highly flawed rosters for 6 seasons (2019 to 2024.) Yes, 2021's roster was flawed, too, but we put everything together and made a solid run.

I think the 2025 roster is good enough to be a playoff team, and I have said Cora can be partially responsible for the letdown. We did lose a big chunk of the rotation, started the season with an awful pen on paper (pun intended) and then lost Bregman and Casas. The total implosion by Houck is not Cora's fault. (Giving him 9 starts might be.)

No, it's not all about rosters, but with the rosters Cora was handed for those 6 years, coming withing a few outs of a trip to the WS in 1 season is about the best I could expect. Maybe 2 playoff trips could have been expected, and Cora got one. I'm not hanging him for that.

I understand the criticism, and many feel wins is the bottom line on everything. I guess the Rockies would be a playoff team with a great manager.

I think most teams wouldn’t have hired Cora back in the first place. I also think most teams would fired Cora by now, and most would definitely not given Cora any extension? Like Cora has said in the past the only thing that matters is what the team does, or doesn’t do in October, so yes wins is the bottom line, and right now the postseason looks like a long way away, which would be the 4th year in a row.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I think the fact is that much of this comes down to personal likes and dislikes. If, for whatever reason, we like someone we will make allowances for poor results and tend to excuse things that we otherwise would not. And the opposite is true as well. Not much leeway for those we don't like.  It's just human nature.

This does seem true. Sometimes it's based on first impressions that are hard to overcome. Sometimes, it's a particular skill we are more enamored with than perhaps we should be.

Sometimes it's the "recency effect" or career numbers that are boosted by long ago successes that are no longer within reach, but we hold out hope for recapturing past glories.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Playing a position, and playing a position good are two different things.

Also different is playing a position well…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think most teams wouldn’t have hired Cora back in the first place. I also think most teams would fired Cora by now, and most would definitely not given Cora any extension? Like Cora has said in the past the only thing that matters is what the team does, or doesn’t do in October, so yes wins is the bottom line, and right now the postseason looks like a long way away, which would be the 4th year in a row.

As much as you have criticized Bloom and JH for "roster construction," it seems you still want to blame Cora for not working more miracles than just 2021. It's everybody's fault these sucky players did not do better.

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You got me. I recently posted WAR definitions from bb-ref and fangraphs, where both stress that WAR numbers are estimates, and therefore unreliable (my word today, no lie) to compare players to the decimal places.

And don't ever order a slice of pie at any bakery named Pie R Squared.

It is true that small differences in WAR really dont mean much, and a 3.0 WAR player really isn’t that much better than a 2.8 WAR player.  But this is hardly uncommon in baseball stats.  Is a .280 hitter really that much different than a .300 hitter?  Because lots of fans act like those numbers are worlds apart…

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

It is true that small differences in WAR really dont mean much, and a 3.0 WAR player really isn’t that much better than a 2.8 WAR player.  But this is hardly uncommon in baseball stats.  Is a .280 hitter really that much different than a .300 hitter?  Because lots of fans act like those numbers are worlds apart…

.280 vs. .300 in how big a sample size, though?  

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As much as you have criticized Bloom and JH for "roster construction," it seems you still want to blame Cora for not working more miracles than just 2021. It's everybody's fault these sucky players did not do better.

Cora to some like yourself is still living off 2018 with a stacked, and a once in a lifetime season.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Old Red said:

Cora to some like yourself is still living off 2018 with a stacked, and a once in a lifetime season.

He made it back to the ALCS in his third season with the team.

That said, I think it's obvious to everyone that right now his job security is at a low point.

[Bellhorn04]

The Orioles have been doing much better since they changed managers.

[Old Red]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

The Orioles have been doing much better since they changed managers.

That’s happened with more than one team through the years, and a little Morgan Magic wasn’t bad either.

[dgalehouse]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Orioles have been doing much better since they changed managers.

Sometimes, hearing a different voice with a different approach will provide at least a temporary boost. And sometimes, it's just a coincidence. 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Playing a position, and playing a position good are two different things.

No doubt, and these are some of our major infield utility players over the past 7 seasons:

Games Played since 2018:

224 Arroyo

196 Holt

168 Chavis

150 DHam

125 E Valdez

109 Romy

85 Reyes

77 Marwin

76 Tzu-Wei

61 Marco Hernandez, 59 Arauz, 50 Chang, 45 Sogard, 37 Kinsler, 34 Peraza, 31 Grissom, 31 Urias, 26 Owings, 23 Iggy, 21 Westbrook, 17 Munoz, 14 Jeter & Y Sanchez, 9 B Phillips.

Look how many of these guys were awful on D, and how few were even decent on D.

This is not a justification for keeping DHam around, but he's a way better defensive 2Bman than most on this list, and we don't really need him at SS, as Mayer and Story are better. (Romy is, too.)

DHam's running skills is big plus, too. Okay, the .647 career OPS is god-awful, and it's just .666 after his rookie season, but his D at 2B, decent splits vs RHPs (.729 in '24) and speed makes me want to keep him around over several others. I'm not claiming he's a stud.

He's also just 27 and entering peak prime years. There is hope he can do better.

 

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

.280 vs. .300 in how big a sample size, though?  

Seriously?

1,000 at bats.  Is it a big difference then?  Talking about 20 hits over two seasons here…