A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Trusting science, and the studies? How robotic that is. Once again Cora doesn’t agree with you. Is this another one of those I don’t agree with Cora, but I don’t think he’s wrong things?

It's "robotic" to trust science and data? 

I see it as the opposite. Not trusting data is robotically following stale ideas.

You still can't understand the position that someone can disagree with someone on a few things and still like them. How "robotic" to see things only in black and white.

I know that Cora has access to way more information than I do, including what players might be hurt or having issues. He might have reasons for doing something I was against, that had I known, I'd think differently, so I don't automatically assume, that if he doesn't do what I suggest, he's wrong.

I know that "wrong" choices sometimes, work out, too, so judging afterwards is complicated, as well.

Some of the ideas I put out there are just possible solutions. At times, I give multiple options that may contradict each other. At times, I'm not even for some of the suggested solutions I state, and I try to say so, at the time.

I also realize I am not right all the time. So, if someone disagrees, I don't always think they are have to be "wrong."  If it's a minor issue that I know has little impact, it won't be enough to sway my overall position. It's not a complex concept to grasp, but you seem to have trouble understanding it.

I'm okay with Devers 2nd. He's a top 2 batter. I can see the benefit of batting them back-to-back, although Bregman getting up after a Devers HR is not ideal. The 3 slot is still very important, so batting Bregman 3 is not a choice I am willing to die on the hill over, and say I dislike Cora over it.

 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's "robotic" to trust science and data? 

I see it as the opposite. Not trusting data is robotically following stale ideas.

You still can't understand the position that someone can disagree with someone on a few things and still like them. How "robotic" to see things only in black and white.

I know that Cora has access to way more information than I do, including what players might be hurt or having issues. He might have reasons for doing something I was against, that had I known, I'd think differently, so I don't automatically assume, that if he doesn't do what I suggest, he's wrong.

I know that "wrong" choices sometimes, work out, too, so judging afterwards is complicated, as well.

Some of the ideas I put out there are just possible solutions. At times, I give multiple options that may contradict each other. At times, I'm not even for some of the suggested solutions I state, and I try to say so, at the time.

I also realize I am not right all the time. So, if someone disagrees, I don't always think they are have to be "wrong."  If it's a minor issue that I know has little impact, it won't be enough to sway my overall position. It's not a complex concept to grasp, but you seem to have trouble understanding it.

I'm okay with Devers 2nd. He's a top 2 batter. I can see the benefit of batting them back-to-back, although Bregman getting up after a Devers HR is not ideal. The 3 slot is still very important, so batting Bregman 3 is not a choice I am willing to die on the hill over, and say I dislike Cora over it.

 

I’m certainly no big Cora fan, but maybe the Red Sox could get someone from the Big Bang Theory to be the manager. Science, Science, Science.🤭

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I’m certainly no big Cora fan, but maybe the Red Sox could get someone from the Big Bang Theory to be the manager. Science, Science, Science.🤭

The Red Sox are Science-ing their way to .500 records!

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox are Science-ing their way to .500 records!

Yes, but it just took them 3 years to get there, and this year hasn’t played out yet to see if they can do it two years in a row.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The second sentence isn't quite right.  For the #1 slot OBP is bigger, as you say, and for the #4 slot SLG is bigger.  But that doesn't really make the #4 slot 'one of the top 2' - more like 1 and 4 are T2, I think. 

Good point. #4 won't get as many RBIs, if #1 is not getting on base.

Duran's paltry .313 OBP is a major issue, and way more impactful than Devers or Bregman not batting 4th.  It's been .354 over his last 11 games, so maybe that will change.

Devers has the team's best OBP, but I don't see him as the best #1.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox are Science-ing their way to .500 records!

People think Cora is all about sabermetrics, yet he stuck with the worst defensive corner IF'ers for years, and does not follow a lot of modern philosophies.

I don't think OBP has gone out of style with "saber," yet it seems like many "modern" GMs no longer value it as much.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m certainly no big Cora fan, but maybe the Red Sox could get someone from the Big Bang Theory to be the manager. Science, Science, Science.🤭

You may not like it, but Cora's replacement might be more about sabermetrics than Cora is.

To quote you, "Like I've said before..."

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR!"

🤪

 

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes, but it just took them 3 years to get there, and this year hasn’t played out yet to see if they can do it two years in a row.

JH and company had enough of all those annoying 90+ win seasons and titles, and winners like Dombrowski and Mookie.  Now it's all Science, Philosophy and .500.  

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

You may not like it, but Cora's replacement might be more about sabermetrics than Cora is.

To quote you, "Like I've said before..."

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR!"

🤪

 

Oh no! Sheldon Cooper for Cora’s replacement for manager.👏👏👏

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

JH and company had enough of all those annoying 90+ win seasons and titles, and winners like Dombrowski and Mookie.  Now it's all Science, Philosophy and .500.  

In other words Geeks, and Nerds have taken over.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point. #4 won't get as many RBIs, if #1 is not getting on base.

Duran's paltry .313 OBP is a major issue, and way more impactful than Devers or Bregman not batting 4th.  It's been .354 over his last 11 games, so maybe that will change.

Devers has the team's best OBP, but I don't see him as the best #1.

Which Red Sox batter has come up with the most runners on base this year? My bet is on Bregman batting in the 3 hole, so with your science, and studies you want to move Bregman up to the 2 slot, and then bypassing the 3 slot where all those runners have been occupying the bases you want Raffy to skip number 3, and move down to the 4 slot. Your science may work with some batting orders, but how the Red Sox OB numbers have worked out so far this year I don’t see how that would work as good as your studies, and science would indicate.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Which Red Sox batter has come up with the most runners on base this year? My bet is on Bregman batting in the 3 hole, so with your science, and studies you want to move Bregman up to the 2 slot, and then bypassing the 3 slot where all those runners have been occupying the bases you want Raffy to skip number 3, and move down to the 4 slot. Your science may work with some batting orders, but how the Red Sox OB numbers have worked out so far this year I don’t see how that would work as good as your studies, and science would indicate.

Devers

PA 230

Bases empty 126

Men on 104

Bregman 

PA 223

Bases empty 106

Men on 117

So yeah, in this case the #3 hitter has had better opportunities than the #2 hitter.

 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Devers

PA 230

Bases empty 126

Men on 104

Bregman 

PA 223

Bases empty 106

Men on 117

So yeah, in this case the #3 hitter has had better opportunities than the #2 hitter.

 

And a lot of the Men on for Bregman most likely has been Raffy. Every batting order is different, so to rely on studies, or science to make out a batting order is just robotic nonsense IMO.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Which Red Sox batter has come up with the most runners on base this year? My bet is on Bregman batting in the 3 hole, so with your science, and studies you want to move Bregman up to the 2 slot, and then bypassing the 3 slot where all those runners have been occupying the bases you want Raffy to skip number 3, and move down to the 4 slot. Your science may work with some batting orders, but how the Red Sox OB numbers have worked out so far this year I don’t see how that would work as good as your studies, and science would indicate.

I don't have the slot numbers for 2025, but a 50 game sample size does not represent the truth, nor what will happen over the next 100+ games.

Yes, bregman has come up 117 times with men on base and has less RBIs (26) than Devers with 104 PAs (32), so thanks once again for giving evidence to support my suggestion.

I see 23 RBI from our 4 slot, and I know, they have had a lot of RBI chances, but hey, let's not even try to fix it, because 2 & 3 are doing well. Got it. Brilliant.

I fully realize trying to fix #4 would lessen the effectiveness or #3, but I'm going with the studies that show #4 gets more RBI chances than #3, over the long run.

Again, this is not a major issue, normally, but when our #4 slot ha ssucked, so badly, and guys like these have sucked, who else can we use?

Abreu .476 OPS in 69 PAs

Casas .551 OPS in 53 PAs (out for season)

Story .687 in 43 (in an awful slump)

Campbell .304 in 40 (YUCK!)

Refsnyder .599 (short-sided platoon)

What's your suggestion? It might be nice to give some, instead of just criticizing others for theirs.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Devers

PA 230

Bases empty 126

Men on 104

Bregman 

PA 223

Bases empty 106

Men on 117

So yeah, in this case the #3 hitter has had better opportunities than the #2 hitter.

 

The 4 slot has had 5 or 6 batters, so I'm not sure how many PAs it has gotten with Men on base. Maybe it's more, since Bregman gets on base, a lot and does not homer as much as Devers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So yeah, in this case the #3 hitter has had better opportunities than the #2 hitter.

 

That's as simple as Devers and his .409 On Base % in front of Bregman. Meanwhile, Raffy bats right after Duran and his .313 On Base %.

Nowadays, in the age of Everybody Ks, the order doesn't make much difference (at least in Boston).

Back when pitchers dominated last century, the tradition was to bat you best hitter 3rd, after a fast leadoff and a #2 guy who could hit a grounder to the right side.

Now we have Schwarber leading off, for a quick lead with his HRs, and also because he wears down the pitcher for subsequent batters. Ideally, that's another good reason to bat a guy like Soto 2nd (at least last year it was).

But one tradition remains: if the first three hitters all reach base, it sure helps to have a big bopper at clean-up who could potentially clear the sacks. That's why I'd bat Anthony 2, Bregman 3, Raffy 4.

Clean-up just hasn't worked out much lately for guys the Sox were hoping on, like Dalbec and Casas. Maybe Justin Gonzales can someday be that guy. He's only 18, so if he arrives by, say 2027, the Sox might even promote Anthony and Mayer by then...

 

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't have the slot numbers for 2025, but a 50 game sample size does not represent the truth, nor what will happen over the next 100+ games.

Yes, bregman has come up 117 times with men on base and has less RBIs (26) than Devers with 104 PAs (32), so thanks once again for giving evidence to support my suggestion.

I see 23 RBI from our 4 slot, and I know, they have had a lot of RBI chances, but hey, let's not even try to fix it, because 2 & 3 are doing well. Got it. Brilliant.

I fully realize trying to fix #4 would lessen the effectiveness or #3, but I'm going with the studies that show #4 gets more RBI chances than #3, over the long run.

Again, this is not a major issue, normally, but when our #4 slot ha ssucked, so badly, and guys like these have sucked, who else can we use?

Abreu .476 OPS in 69 PAs

Casas .551 OPS in 53 PAs (out for season)

Story .687 in 43 (in an awful slump)

Campbell .304 in 40 (YUCK!)

Refsnyder .599 (short-sided platoon)

What's your suggestion? It might be nice to give some, instead of just criticizing others for theirs.

You, and your sample size. At the moment all I care about what’s going on Right Now, and what has happened so far in the season. Raffy, and Bregman have the most RBI not only on the team, but are up near the top in the league as well. That has been in the 2-3 spots in the batting order. Since Raffy, and Bregman have driven in the most runs once again from the 2&3 spots in the BO I doubt the 4th spot has had as many chances, or runners on base to do so, so unless you have numbers to prove otherwise you don’t have anything to support your suggestion. Also if Raffy batted 4th as you suggested who’s going to protect him in the BO?

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 4 slot has had 5 or 6 batters, so I'm not sure how many PAs it has gotten with Men on base. Maybe it's more, since Bregman gets on base, a lot and does not homer as much as Devers.

At present time, and up to now, which is what counts Bregman has more HR than Raffy. Bregman has gotten on base a lot, but so has Raffy batting ahead of him, so I just don’t see the suggestion of  not only separating them in the BO, but moving Raffy down to 4th where in the very least May get 1 less AB in a game. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox are Science-ing their way to .500 records!

I would change that to 'around' .500 records.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You, and your sample size. At the moment all I care about what’s going on Right Now, and what has happened so far in the season. 

Wow, you don't care about what happens over the next 100+ games.

Like many, here, you seem to assume what happened in the last 50 games will repeat itself going forward. If that is true, then you are fine with ending the season .500, since no changes should be made.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Old Red said:

... but moving Raffy down to 4th where in the very least May get 1 less AB in a game. 

Then make him leadoff, where at the very least he gets 1 less PA.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I would change that to 'around' .500 records.

We can't really expect perfection, but they're pretty damn close.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

44 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You, and your sample size. At the moment all I care about what’s going on Right Now, and what has happened so far in the season. Raffy, and Bregman have the most RBI not only on the team, but are up near the top in the league as well. That has been in the 2-3 spots in the batting order. Since Raffy, and Bregman have driven in the most runs once again from the 2&3 spots in the BO I doubt the 4th spot has had as many chances, or runners on base to do so, so unless you have numbers to prove otherwise you don’t have anything to support your suggestion. Also if Raffy batted 4th as you suggested who’s going to protect him in the BO?

 

Looking at the clean-up stats, certainly no one is protecting Bregman.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The second sentence isn't quite right.  For the #1 slot OBP is bigger, as you say, and for the #4 slot SLG is bigger.  But that doesn't really make the #4 slot 'one of the top 2' - more like 1 and 4 are T2, I think. 

Sox are 7th in runs with a black hole at cleanup. IDK. If Bregman hit 4th instead of 3rd, I'm not sure they rise further in the rankings. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are 7th in runs with a black hole at cleanup. IDK. If Bregman hit 4th instead of 3rd, I'm not sure they rise further in the rankings. 

Yeah, that's more like a moving the deck chairs thing.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Looking at the clean-up stats, certainly no one is protecting Bregman.

LOL.

Maybe we should not "tinker" by adding a solid 4 slot batter, or else we'll mess up Bregs.

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Then make him leadoff, where at the very least he gets 1 less PA.

Throwing things against the wall again to see what sticks? You’ve gone from batting Raffy 4th to now leadoff.🤭

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LOL.

Maybe we should not "tinker" by adding a solid 4 slot batter, or else we'll mess up Bregs.

Duran

Raffy

Breggie

Roman

Wilyer

Campbell

Mayer

Narvaez

Rafaela

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran

Raffy

Breggie

Roman

Wilyer

Campbell

Mayer

Narvaez

Rafaela

 

What  position is Roman playing?

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

I’m certainly no big Cora fan, but maybe the Red Sox could get someone from the Big Bang Theory to be the manager. Science, Science, Science.🤭

You do realize nobody in the league is more analytics-driven than Cora, right?   He was hired by two teams for exactly that reason.

And I'm not a huge Cora fan either...