A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the Red Sox front office has done a great job lowering our expectations.  

I have no idea what fanbase you're looking at - this one seems to be losing it's mind that we're only 10-10 at the moment and want to rip everything down and start again. 

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

And Mayer is hitting WORSE against RHP!

Indeed. And yet we had posters just a few days ago demanding he was brought up to inject youth and energy and some nonsense about Bogaerts and Betts...

People need a good, long, deep breath. I feel like collective madness is around every corner at the moment.

To your point about Grissom - I really hope they give him more at bats at 1st. We really are scraping the barrel if Casas goes down/bombs. Grissom's offence has always threatened to be worth something. We might need to find out soon.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I have no idea what fanbase you're looking at - this one seems to be losing it's mind that we're only 10-10 at the moment and want to rip everything down and start again. 

I get how people get upset and say things out of anger and frustration, many times over tiny sample sizes, but I'd like to think there are not many true Sox fans that want a tear down- start over plan put in place.

We may still have many questions to be answered and young players that have shown promise, recently but are struggling to start 2025, but the season is 162 games for a reason.

Okay, so Devers is overpaid, and contracts like Yoshida's look awful, but to me, our roster construction has been steadily improving, along with the farm system. We have a lot of young, pre-prime and early prime players with many years of team control, at relatively low cost. We have ML ready top prospects and some damn good looking ones that are 2-3 years away. We seemed to have turned the corner on pitching acquisition and  development, but admittedly, that has yet to be proven. 

I'd rather see us look better on paper than worse on paper. The depth we have seems strong enough to offer hope, in case some of our current players don't pan out or get hurt. On the everyday side of things, only the catching position looks weak and shallow. 1B depth looks sketchy, unless we can get Devers to pick up a 1Bman's mitt. Everywhere else, has ML depth and or top prospect talent waiting in the wings.

If Rafaela becomes the most expensive utility man in MLB- he starts making over $5.5M in 2029- it wouldn't be a bad thing. I really like our roster.

The pitching side is a bit more speculative and many come off the books this winter or next, but longer term deals for pitchers often backfire, so this is not a bad thing, as longs as JH keeps spending, where and when needed.

I'm optimistic, and I don't think it's because my expectations were lower over the last 5 years. I think we have a good shot at winning the AL pennant. Call me a homer or a dreamer, if you wish.

[Larry Cook]

Rafeala contributed a little offense tonight 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Rafeala contributed a little offense tonight 

Indeed, as well as the Never Ending Story.

[moonslav59]

It's way to early to make definitive judgments, but so far our rotation depth has kept us in this thing.

So far, we've seen SP'ers ranked no higher than 7th on the all healthy depth chart, and likely something like 8th or 9th to 10th or 11th do better than those ranked 1-6, other than Crochet, of course.

#1 Crochet 1.38 - 4GS

#2 Houck 9.16 -4GS

#3 Buehler 5.23- 4 GS

(#4-7 on IL: Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Sandoval)

#8 Fitts 3.18- 3 GS (now on IL)

#9 Newcomb 3.63- 4 GS

#10 Dobbins 2.45- 2 GS

This is pretty eye opening:

SP 1-3: 4.83 ERA in 12 GS (65.1 IP 63H, 22 BB, 56Ks 35 ER)

SP 8-10: 3.18 ERA in 9 GS (45.1 IP, 49H, 16 BB, 43Ks, 16 ER)

When Bello, Gio and Crawford return, it might be difficult for them to match the 3.18 ERA of those ranked lower than they were.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Nothing like a big night to bump up some OPS numbers:

.959 Abreu

.910 Bregman

.876 Story

.870 Campbell

.694 Devers

.632 Duran

.568 Rafaela

.509 Casas

Not Qualified:

.914 Romy

.831 Refsnyder

.623 Narvaez

.328 DHam

.310 Sabol

.279 Wong

[moonslav59]

We are 7th in runs scored and 10tth in OPS at .723. (12th in HRs , 4th in SBs and 1st in Ks)

We are 16th in ERA but 29th in runs allowed (16 unearned leads the league.) 17 HRs allowed is 7th best.

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I get how people get upset and say things out of anger and frustration, many times over tiny sample sizes, but I'd like to think there are not many true Sox fans that want a tear down- start over plan put in place.

We may still have many questions to be answered and young players that have shown promise, recently but are struggling to start 2025, but the season is 162 games for a reason.

Okay, so Devers is overpaid, and contracts like Yoshida's look awful, but to me, our roster construction has been steadily improving, along with the farm system. We have a lot of young, pre-prime and early prime players with many years of team control, at relatively low cost. We have ML ready top prospects and some damn good looking ones that are 2-3 years away. We seemed to have turned the corner on pitching acquisition and  development, but admittedly, that has yet to be proven. 

I'd rather see us look better on paper than worse on paper. The depth we have seems strong enough to offer hope, in case some of our current players don't pan out or get hurt. On the everyday side of things, only the catching position looks weak and shallow. 1B depth looks sketchy, unless we can get Devers to pick up a 1Bman's mitt. Everywhere else, has ML depth and or top prospect talent waiting in the wings.

If Rafaela becomes the most expensive utility man in MLB- he starts making over $5.5M in 2029- it wouldn't be a bad thing. I really like our roster.

The pitching side is a bit more speculative and many come off the books this winter or next, but longer term deals for pitchers often backfire, so this is not a bad thing, as longs as JH keeps spending, where and when needed.

I'm optimistic, and I don't think it's because my expectations were lower over the last 5 years. I think we have a good shot at winning the AL pennant. Call me a homer or a dreamer, if you wish.

It's a fair point, this board isn't an exact model for the Sox fan base in general, but I also don't think it's a mile off either.

It's a new world where attention spans are a thing of the past and you're disappointed that a thing you ordered on Friday night took until 5pm on Saturday to arrive. Take Nick's comment in the game thread that we need to put distance between us and the chasing play off pack.

In mid-April.

Everything has to be perfect. And now. No playing into form, no settling in time. Be great or be s***. Telling how little engagement game threads have when we win in comparison to when we lose.

I'm just glad we didn't get Soto now. With the start he's had, Boston would be on fire.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We are 7th in runs scored and 10tth in OPS at .723. (12th in HRs , 4th in SBs and 1st in Ks)

We are 16th in ERA but 29th in runs allowed (16 unearned leads the league.) 17 HRs allowed is 7th best.

I think we need another dozen games before we pay much attention to runs scored as its heavily skewed by the Cardinals game.

On a side note, I really like Dobbins. I hope he does well.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think we need another dozen games before we pay much attention to runs scored as its heavily skewed by the Cardinals game.

On a side note, I really like Dobbins. I hope he does well.

My guess is other teams have their numb ers skewed by 2-3 games, too.

[moonslav59]

A look at MLB experience on our current roster:

Seasons (including 2025) /Games

10: Bregman 1131, Story 929, Refsnyder 479

9: Devers 1001

5: Duran 373, Wong 294, Romy 183

4: Casas 240

3: Rafaela 198, Abreu 180, DHam 123, Sabol 125

2: Narvaez 20

1: Campbell 19

 

Pitching:

16: Chapman 805

13: Wilson 595

9: Newcomb 179

8: Buehler 135, Fulmer 263

6: Houck 108

5: Crochet 108, Whitlock 110, Criswell 41, Stock 56

4: Wink 120, Bernardino 121, Weissert 100, Kelly 76

2: Slaten 52, Fitts 7

1: Dobbins 2

[moonslav59]

Hendriks activated and joins the Sox. Dobbins optioned to WOO, again.

Brayan Bello is set to be promoted, and who gets sent down is a mystery:

Weissert, Kelly or Wink?

[Hitch]

Wink feels the obvious choice at the moment.

[Nick]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I get how people get upset and say things out of anger and frustration, many times over tiny sample sizes, but I'd like to think there are not many true Sox fans that want a tear down- start over plan put in place.

We may still have many questions to be answered and young players that have shown promise, recently but are struggling to start 2025, but the season is 162 games for a reason.

Okay, so Devers is overpaid, and contracts like Yoshida's look awful, but to me, our roster construction has been steadily improving, along with the farm system. We have a lot of young, pre-prime and early prime players with many years of team control, at relatively low cost. We have ML ready top prospects and some damn good looking ones that are 2-3 years away. We seemed to have turned the corner on pitching acquisition and  development, but admittedly, that has yet to be proven. 

I'd rather see us look better on paper than worse on paper. The depth we have seems strong enough to offer hope, in case some of our current players don't pan out or get hurt. On the everyday side of things, only the catching position looks weak and shallow. 1B depth looks sketchy, unless we can get Devers to pick up a 1Bman's mitt. Everywhere else, has ML depth and or top prospect talent waiting in the wings.

If Rafaela becomes the most expensive utility man in MLB- he starts making over $5.5M in 2029- it wouldn't be a bad thing. I really like our roster.

The pitching side is a bit more speculative and many come off the books this winter or next, but longer term deals for pitchers often backfire, so this is not a bad thing, as longs as JH keeps spending, where and when needed.

I'm optimistic, and I don't think it's because my expectations were lower over the last 5 years. I think we have a good shot at winning the AL pennant. Call me a homer or a dreamer, if you wish.

Rafaela extension was a good, calculated move. Really not much downside. He will always be an elite center fielder. I believe something will click offensively at some point.

I am good with Dever's contract. He will always hit and now we don't have to worry about his defense.

We have 4 years of team control left for Casas. Way, way too early to give up on the guy. He has enormous upside.

I'm happy with Breslow.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we have a good shot at winning the AL pennant. 

The sox have benefitted from a very easy early schedule. They have only faced teams better than .500 in 8 of their first 21 games. They went 2-6 during those games.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Hendriks activated and joins the Sox. Dobbins optioned to WOO, again.

Brayan Bello is set to be promoted, and who gets sent down is a mystery:

Weissert, Kelly or Wink?

Wink is definitely dressed in his Star Trek original series, red security shirt and already in the transported down to the planet. Just waiting for the deed!!!!!!

[moonslav59]

I agree that Wink looks like the most likely to be demoted, whenever Bello is needed to start a game.

When Gio & Fitts are ready to return, some tough choices might need to be made, but it's nice to have choices like this, instead of choosing between guys like Bailey Horn, Llovera, Brasier, Ort and Danish.

[moonslav59]

The Rays scored 4 in the bottom of the 9th off D Williams, then 2 in the 10th to beat the Yanks.

Updated standings:

13-8 NYY

12-9 TOR -1.0

12-10 BOS -1.5

9-11 BAL -3.5

9-12 TBR -4.0

________________

WC

12-9 TOR

11-9 CLE

12-10 BOS__________

10-9 LAA -0.5

11-10 SEA -0.5

 

[Bellhorn04]

On 4/18/2025 at 7:45 PM, Hitch said:

I have no idea what fanbase you're looking at - this one seems to be losing it's mind that we're only 10-10 at the moment and want to rip everything down and start again. 

Sometimes I say things like that just to see what the reaction is. 

I do believe there's some truth in it - when you go from being a powerhouse like the Sox mostly were in the years 2003-2018 to a mediocrity like the 2022-2024 teams, it tends to adjust expectations downward to the point that you're relatively happy if the team is projected to win 85 and have a shot at a Wild Card spot.

It's also a sweeping generalization that doesn't apply to a lot of fans, as we can see by reading the game threads.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sometimes I say things like that just to see what the reaction is. 

I do believe there's some truth in it - when you go from being a powerhouse like the Sox mostly were in the years 2003-2018 to a mediocrity like the 2022-2024 teams, it tends to adjust expectations downward to the point that you're relatively happy if the team is projected to win 85 and have a shot at a Wild Card spot.

It's also a sweeping generalization that doesn't apply to a lot of fans, as we can see by reading the game threads.  

How adult of you not to demean other posters' opinions by questioning their sanity -- often backed up by history which any fan can research on statistical sites like baseball-reference or fangraphs...

... as if any of us need be reminded of the "nonsense" of typing daily takes on an anonymous forum to discuss one of our favorite pastimes: watching grown men dressed in costumes playing a kids' game.

[moonslav59]

The low expectations were real. Most Sox fans are not dumb. We looked at the rosters and knew we were not a winning team.

I don't think that stopped any of us from expecting management from getting off their asses and address the holes in the roster- from top to bottom.

The glacial pace of improving the roster, starting with the farm and 40 man roster depth did not satisfy the masses. We lacked top quality for too long, while simultaneously watching some of our top talent walk out the door, many times for comp picks, only.

It was hard to see the long game, and JH's record breaking spending hiatus wore our patience thin.

The Betts walk was a staggering choice that set us ack for long time, but we also watched so many other stars sign with other teams. Many were already in decline, but losing stars and heroes is never easy. The few bigger signings we made did not amount tom much, at all. The Devers extension was viewed as desperate way for JH to save face (or his life.)

Now, when we look back, things still bad, but somethings look much more understandable. Beni never became the promising player many felt he'd become. JD was over the hill. Price, ERod, Porcello and other SP'ers lost did not do well after leaving Boston. True, replacing them with Martin Perez, Garrett Richards and Kluber were horrific attempts at staying relevant, granted, but re-signing them would have been pretty bad.

The loss of Bogaerts was the final straw for many, but was it really such a big loss? Sure, we'd be a better team with him, over the past 2+ years, but with the fixed budget, maybe we do worse. He's got a .742 OPS w SDP. He has yet to homer, this year. His defense is no better.

As it turned out we got Campbell for Bogey and Anthony for ERod. What looked like horrible chocies, at the time, may now become pure genius.

I'm very optimistic about the future of this team, but I also think this roster on paper, looks top 3-4 in the AL, and with minimal injuries and expected age related growth, we could be top 1-2. When you look where we were before Brez took over, that is a remarkable improvement.

While Bloom's highest prospect traded was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber, Brez has taken risks and dealt away from our strong and deep farm. He took a big gamble trading away catcher depth, our weakest area, right now, but we got our man: Garrett Freakin' Crochet!

 

[jdc69]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The low expectations were real. Most Sox fans are not dumb. We looked at the rosters and knew we were not a winning team.

I don't think that stopped any of us from expecting management from getting off their asses and address the holes in the roster- from top to bottom.

The glacial pace of improving the roster, starting with the farm and 40 man roster depth did not satisfy the masses. We lacked top quality for too long, while simultaneously watching some of our top talent walk out the door, many times for comp picks, only.

It was hard to see the long game, and JH's record breaking spending hiatus wore our patience thin.

The Betts walk was a staggering choice that set us ack for long time, but we also watched so many other stars sign with other teams. Many were already in decline, but losing stars and heroes is never easy. The few bigger signings we made did not amount tom much, at all. The Devers extension was viewed as desperate way for JH to save face (or his life.)

Now, when we look back, things still bad, but somethings look much more understandable. Beni never became the promising player many felt he'd become. JD was over the hill. Price, ERod, Porcello and other SP'ers lost did not do well after leaving Boston. True, replacing them with Martin Perez, Garrett Richards and Kluber were horrific attempts at staying relevant, granted, but re-signing them would have been pretty bad.

The loss of Bogaerts was the final straw for many, but was it really such a big loss? Sure, we'd be a better team with him, over the past 2+ years, but with the fixed budget, maybe we do worse. He's got a .742 OPS w SDP. He has yet to homer, this year. His defense is no better.

As it turned out we got Campbell for Bogey and Anthony for ERod. What looked like horrible chocies, at the time, may now become pure genius.

I'm very optimistic about the future of this team, but I also think this roster on paper, looks top 3-4 in the AL, and with minimal injuries and expected age related growth, we could be top 1-2. When you look where we were before Brez took over, that is a remarkable improvement.

While Bloom's highest prospect traded was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber, Brez has taken risks and dealt away from our strong and deep farm. He took a big gamble trading away catcher depth, our weakest area, right now, but we got our man: Garrett Freakin' Crochet!

 

I think having one of the best farm systems in the league is very smart. If this was their plan when not resigning Betts, it becomes much more understandable. 

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How adult of you not to demean other posters' opinions by questioning their sanity -- often backed up by history which any fan can research on statistical sites like baseball-reference or fangraphs...

... as if any of us need be reminded of the "nonsense" of typing daily takes on an anonymous forum to discuss one of our favorite pastimes: watching grown men dressed in costumes playing a kids' game.

If you have an issue with any of my posts, maybe have the courtesy to respond to them directly rather than making continued sarcastic posts about them.

Or you know, just ignore them. 

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sometimes I say things like that just to see what the reaction is. 

I do believe there's some truth in it - when you go from being a powerhouse like the Sox mostly were in the years 2003-2018 to a mediocrity like the 2022-2024 teams, it tends to adjust expectations downward to the point that you're relatively happy if the team is projected to win 85 and have a shot at a Wild Card spot.

It's also a sweeping generalization that doesn't apply to a lot of fans, as we can see by reading the game threads.  

I don't believe that there was a concerted effort by management to lower expectations and I don't believe there's evidence of it.

I do think they wanted to win cheap and show how smart they are. Watching teams like the Rays and Brewers be successful only fuelled that I imagine.

But expectations naturally come down when there is a sustained period of crap performance  

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I think having one of the best farm systems in the league is very smart. If this was their plan when not resigning Betts, it becomes much more understandable. 

I think the farm became the major focus, and for good reason. The highest prospect we traded was Aldo Ramirez, until Brez came to town, and that goes back to 2018 (maybe Beeks for Nate at the deadline was slightly higher ranked. Mid 2018 to winter 2024-2025 is over 6 years.

Not only did we hardly trade any top prospects, we traded vets for prospects and accumulated comp picks by letting some stars go (Campbell for Bogey & Anthony for ERod.)

Even when we traded for vets, we often got a prospect or two added on.

DHam & Binelas with JBJ for Renfroe.

Seabold with Pivetta for a couple of RP'ers.

Wink and 2 other prospects with Franchy for Beni.

Wong & Downs with Verdugo for Betts.

Fitts and others with Weissert for Verdugo

Straight up vets for prospects included Abreu & EValdez for Vaz and Sandlin for Schreiber, to name just a couple of many.

I do think the upper brass felt we had a good enough roster to barely compete, along the way, but the #1 priority was building up the farm and younger depth on the 40 man roster.

 

[moonslav59]

We are only 14% through the season, but some high need areas are already apparent- most were apparent back in March.

1. Catching: While Narvaez has looked good on D, and sometimes that's all a team needs, but with a blackhole in CF, we can't support two.

2. The pen: We knew it was deep with mediocrity, but way short on quality, especially at closer and set-up men. Chapman has looked good, but we still need more top quality.

3. Rotation: We have to hope 5 of the ones we have rise to the top and do enough to get us there.

Maybe Anthony can add a spark. Maybe Buehler and or Houck get it together. Maybe Casas & others catch fire, soon.

Maybe, maybe, maybe....

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

If you have an issue with any of my posts, maybe have the courtesy to respond to them directly rather than making continued sarcastic posts about them.

Or you know, just ignore them. 

No issues. Next time I spew nonsense about the Red Sox promoting very young prospects like Bogaerts, Betts and Devers, I'll be courteous enough to include website links to places like baseball-reference.com and mlb.com/milb/prospects.

Those places give good statistical and/or numerical perspective to the insanity of bringing up top prospects too young. 

They show the true destruction to the careers of Bogaerts, Betts and Devers, who have only combined to receive MVP votes 19 times, make 15 All-Star teams, and win 14 Silver Sluggers... so far. The same trio together has also earned or are under contract to be paid about one billion dollars.

Luckily, Boston's current Big Three prospects are more highly regarded before their MLB debuts by evaluators, so may be better bets not to have their careers similarly ruined forever if they all make the majors this season.

 

[moonslav59]

11 of 15 AL teams are within 4 games of .500.

8 of 15 NL teams are.

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

11 of 15 AL teams are within 4 games of .500.

8 of 15 NL teams are.

This is important!!! We are still very much in the conversation for a wildcard. 
 

Remember, we have starters coming back and then we can move some guys to the bullpen and send down the mediocre guys. (Wink, Kelly, etc) 
 

the offense on the other hand needs work. Devers. Casas, rafeala, Duran and Hamilton are not getting it done!!!

Sadly defense is still a huge issue as well!!!!!  It is amazing that bres-slow is not an alcoholic by now.