A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm less concerned about splitting time between SS and 2B than being jerked between IF and OF when he has very little professional experience in either area. He's just destined to fail somewhere. He's only getting by because he's freakishly athletic. If he just stayed at one position, he'd be average at least. 

I agree. KC may never be good at 1 position, but he is athletic enough to get by on that alone. I’d just like to see him stick at 2B only if that’s where they see him long term, but I get that most likely hasn’t been decided yet, and will depend on other players movement also.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They're playing Campbell in both the infield and outfield so he has enough experience at each to keep his bat in the line-up when Mayer or Anthony force their way onto the roster -- or are called up because of injuries.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They're playing Campbell in both the infield and outfield so he has enough experience at each to keep his bat in the line-up when Mayer or Anthony force their way onto the roster -- or are called up because of injuries.

Oh I get why, and KC is in CF tonight.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm less concerned about splitting time between SS and 2B than being jerked between IF and OF when he has very little professional experience in either area. He's just destined to fail somewhere. He's only getting by because he's freakishly athletic. If he just stayed at one position, he'd be average at least. 

I agree. Maybe over time he can be average or average plus at 2B and CF, but it makes sense to just keep him at 2B. Our OF is loaded before Anthony part of it.

Maybe may be crowding the MI situation, eventually, but as of now, I don't see the need to play DHam or Romy at 2B, unless KC needs a rest.

I'd rather see Abreu bat vs LHPs or Refsnyder vs RHPs than jerk Campbell to CF, or just play Rafaela every game in CF.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Not trying to pick on Hitch here, but we were all riding high after the 5 game winning streak. These past two games really brought the offense back to earth. Brutal. 

Yes, I broke my own golden rule of small samples mean nothing after that feelgood day. 

That said, I'm not worried about this team at all. They're going to be fine. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Yes, I broke my own golden rule of small samples mean nothing after that feelgood day. 

That said, I'm not worried about this team at all. They're going to be fine. 

I think so, too.

Last spring, the rotation carried us. I think they come around, soon, especially when we get Bello back.

[Larry Cook]

Is this the year bello breaks out??? His change up is above average. Let’s hope he puts it all together 

[Old Red]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think this will change.

Currently, we are tied for 22nd in DRS, 27th in OAA and are ranked 21st on fangraphs defensive index.

Surprisingly, these are our worst DRS players, so far:

-2 Duran LF (The Fenway curse)

-1, Story, Romy, DHam 2B, Refsnyder and 3 pitchers.

The good:

+3 Rafaela, +2 Abreu, +1 Duran CF, +1 DHam SS

 

The first two plays of the game last night were bad throws. One by Story, and one by Bregman yet again. Casas saved Story from getting an error, and the official scorer saved Bregman. Story’s throw should have been an easy one as he had plenty of time, and is more concerning.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox lead the majors in Ks now.

Fatse and Lawson must go!

[notin]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. Maybe over time he can be average or average plus at 2B and CF, but it makes sense to just keep him at 2B. Our OF is loaded before Anthony part of it.

Maybe may be crowding the MI situation, eventually, but as of now, I don't see the need to play DHam or Romy at 2B, unless KC needs a rest.

I'd rather see Abreu bat vs LHPs or Refsnyder vs RHPs than jerk Campbell to CF, or just play Rafaela every game in CF.

I think Hamilton was only playing because he needed to get some action.  And it’s not like he can handle anything except but 2b…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sox lead the majors in Ks now.

Fatse and Lawson must go!

Really?

This lineup has major league hitters in it, many of whom were good at striking out before coming to Boston.  Some even had that propensity in the minors.  Getting new hiring coaches isnt going to make Story, Devers, Casas, c etc. suddenly morph into contact hitters.

But if you’re going to believe that, do they also get credit for Rafaela?  Last year he swung at nearly every pitch and even the occasional first base pickoff attempt, but right now has only 4K and already 4BB on the season…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sox lead the majors in Ks now.

Fatse and Lawson must go!

Fine to get rid of them, but a lot of it has to do with roster construction as well. 

When you look at professional numbers prior to these two coaches (either in other orgs or MiLB) the following guys were just going have at or above average k rates no matter what:

Casas

Romy

Hamilton

Wong

Story

Abreu

Duran

Narvaez

Rafaela

Refsnyder

Campbell doesn't have much of a track record. Bregman should be below average. Devers has been all over the place, but has been above average ever since his shoulder injury last season. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Really?

This lineup has major league hitters in it, many of whom were good at striking out before coming to Boston.  Some even had that propensity in the minors.  Getting new hiring coaches isnt going to make Story, Devers, Casas, c etc. suddenly morph into contact hitters.

But if you’re going to believe that, do they also get credit for Rafaela?  Last year he swung at nearly every pitch and even the occasional first base pickoff attempt, but right now has only 4K and already 4BB on the season…

Yeah, I know there's much sense in what you're saying.  I'm just appalled at how this team has suddenly come to be so K-happy.  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Really?

This lineup has major league hitters in it, many of whom were good at striking out before coming to Boston.  Some even had that propensity in the minors.  Getting new hiring coaches isnt going to make Story, Devers, Casas, c etc. suddenly morph into contact hitters.

But if you’re going to believe that, do they also get credit for Rafaela?  Last year he swung at nearly every pitch and even the occasional first base pickoff attempt, but right now has only 4K and already 4BB on the season…

85th percentile whiff rate for Ceddanne. The only problem is that he's not pulling the ball with any authority (3.2% pull air %). His quality of contact is down (0 XBH, worst GB/FB ratio on the Sox, and only 16% LD rate). He has the second highest swing % on the Sox and leads in swinging at the first pitch. The big difference with last year is that his OOZ contact rate has gone from 54% to 77%. He's now just getting to pitches that he'd whiff on last year. After 11 games, I think we need to give it a little time for these numbers to settle down a little. I don't see how he could keep up a near 80% OOZ contact rate. 

[Bellhorn04]

Any way you look at it, it seems like there are serious problems with how our offense goes about its business.  We can explode for double figures, but we've also already had 2 3 game stretches in which we scored a total of 6 runs or less.  The Jays pitching has made us look hapless for 3 games.

The Dodgers and Yankees have been whiffing about as much as us, but they also have 28 and 26 long balls.  We have 11.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Really?

This lineup has major league hitters in it, many of whom were good at striking out before coming to Boston.  Some even had that propensity in the minors.  Getting new hiring coaches isnt going to make Story, Devers, Casas, c etc. suddenly morph into contact hitters.

But if you’re going to believe that, do they also get credit for Rafaela?  Last year he swung at nearly every pitch and even the occasional first base pickoff attempt, but right now has only 4K and already 4BB on the season…

bell's "fire everyone" is a typical fanboy, knee jerk reaction

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Any way you look at it, it seems like there are serious problems with how our offense goes about its business.  We can explode for double figures, but we've also already had 2 3 game stretches in which we scored a total of 6 runs or less.  The Jays pitching has made us look hapless for 3 games.

The Dodgers and Yankees have been whiffing about as much as us, but they also have 28 and 26 long balls.  We have 11.

Red Sox don't have the roster to hit dingers. The have a roster that k's a bunch though. 

Probably no way to fix this season though.

DH Masa (replaces Casas high k rate)

C Other

1B Devers 

2B Campbell

SS Mayer (k's but could be better than Story)

3B Bregman

RF Abreu 

CF Duran (moves Rafaela to UTIL role)

LF Anthony (k's but HR's)

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

bell's "fire everyone" is a typical fanboy, knee jerk reaction

If you're going to be taking everything so literally, show me where I said 'fire everyone'. 

[moonslav59]

I really don't mind lots of K's as long as the BBs and hits ar in the plus category.

Our 10% BB rate is 9th in MLB (4th in AL)

Our .257 BA is T7th w TOR (T2nd in the AL)

Our .727 OPS is 7th (3rd AL)

Our ISO is 15th

We are tied for 2nd in BAbip, so maybe we have been "lucky." (2nd in hard hit%, so maybe not.)

I think our offense will be fine.

I think our defense will end up middle of the pack.

Our pen might come back down to earth.

Our rotation need to be top 6-8, IMO, and that seems about like they should be.

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If you're going to be taking everything so literally, show me where I said 'fire everyone'. 

It's ok, fanboys usually spout knee jerk reactions.

It doesn't make you a bad guy.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I really don't mind lots of K's as long as the BBs and hits ar in the plus category.

Our 10% BB rate is 9th in MLB (4th in AL)

Our .257 BA is T7th w TOR (T2nd in the AL)

Our .727 OPS is 7th (3rd AL)

Our ISO is 15th

We are tied for 2nd in BAbip, so maybe we have been "lucky." (2nd in hard hit%, so maybe not.)

I think our offense will be fine.

The problem is a lot of the good stats have been generated by 2 games in which they scored 31 runs.

In 7 of 13 games they've scored 3 runs or less.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

It's ok, fanboys usually spout knee jerk reactions.

It doesn't make you a bad guy.

Right, and being a troll doesn't necessarily make you a bad guy.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If you're going to be taking everything so literally, show me where I said 'fire everyone'. 

I think you did infer that they should fire BOH and Sam Kennedy. 

[mvp 78]

Sox may LEAD in total k's, but they are 10th in k %. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's no fanboy reaction if anybody's read what a lot of us have been concerned about for half a decade.

Strikeouts not only suck the life out of rallies -- or even ones that are contrived with a ghost on second -- but they suck the life out of spectators.  

Watching a bunch of whiffers, year after year, is not entertaining, but a major league drag.

 

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you did infer that they should fire BOH and Sam Kennedy. 

Not recently.  

I've certainly said I hated the Dillon Lawson hiring.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The problem is a lot of the good stats have been generated by 2 games in which they scored 31 runs.

In 7 of 13 games they've scored 3 runs or less.

That seems to be the case with most teams.

Throw out our worst two games, and what do our stats look like?

Granted, throwing out the best and worst two, would show worse numbers, than where we are now.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's no fanboy reaction if anybody's read what a lot of us have been concerned about for half a decade.

Strikeouts not only suck the life out of rallies -- or even ones that are contrived with a ghost on second -- but they suck the life out of spectators.  

Watching a bunch of whiffers, year after year, is not entertaining, but a major league drag.

 

As one poster pointed out above, many of these players whiffed a lot long before these were their hitting coaches.

So, yes, it was a fan boy reaction.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That seems to be the case with most teams.

Throw out our worst two games, and what do our stats look like?

Granted, throwing out the best and worst two, would show worse numbers, than where we are now.

What I really think is that we need a better way to measure an offense's performance, one that looks at it on a game by game basis. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

As one poster pointed out above, many of these players whiffed a lot long before these were their hitting coaches.

So, yes, it was a fan boy reaction.

Nobody takes a troll seriously.