Article: Where Should Rafael Devers Play?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Schedule 162 home games. Problem solved…

Bregman would like that, too.

[vegasbob]

The question was about Devers and where he should play.   

The answer is---in another city.

IMO, his shoulder conditions will become chronic , due to his savage bat swing.  He will not come close to living out his 10 year deal.   So trade him now .  Sox could get 2 position players  for this chubby dude. Maybe a top catcher and a 2Bman

Re: Casas . You can have no discussion with him about hitting or defense because you will not a word in edgewise.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Devers can continue to provide team-leading production for his age 28 through 32 years, he's worth keeping. Raffy's 162-game averages through 8 big league seasons: 33 HRs, 102 Runs, 105 RBIs, .856 OPS.

Another 8 years with those numbers may be unlikely, but if he rakes for 5 or 6 more, the question remains: where else does Boston find a batter that consistent?

Hype and roll out as many prospects as you want, but they still have to do it. If only Bloom was still here; he said he was ready to surround Devers with talent... (but maybe not quite like free agent hoarders LA, NY, NY and Philly). 

Bregman is a good start and may be in Boston longer than people think. Where else is he going to get $40 mil a year, and who is even going to give him a longterm for $30 mil when he's in his mid-30s?

 

[Bellhorn04]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bregman is a good start and may be in Boston longer than people think. Where else is he going to get $40 mil a year, and who is even going to give him a longterm for $30 mil when he's in his mid-30s?

Personally I think Bregman would like to stay and the opt-outs are there for protection against things going sour in some way.

I'll note these points again: 1) The deferrals knock his contract down from $120 mill to $95 mill, an AAV of $31.7 mill. 2) He turned down 6/$171.5 mill from the Tigers.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I think Bregman would like to stay and the opt-outs are there for protection against things going sour in some way.

I'll note these points again: 1) The deferrals knock his contract down from $120 mill to $95 mill, an AAV of $31.7 mill. 2) He turned down 6/$171.5 mill from the Tigers.

If he has a big season, he's gone IMO. 

[Bellhorn04]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If he has a big season, he's gone IMO. 

He put up 4-5 bWAR seasons in 2022-2024.  This is not what we usually see for "pillow contracts". 

If he posts a 4.5 bWAR this year, is that going to radically change the demand for his services from what it was this offseason?   

The free agent market has been super-weird the last two years, some guys getting paid as expected and others left scrambling. 

 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He put up 4-5 bWAR seasons in 2022-2024.  This is not what we usually see for "pillow contracts". 

If he posts a 4.5 bWAR this year, is that going to radically change the demand for his services from what it was this offseason?   

If his OPS goes to 850+ rather than 750+, then yes. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If his OPS goes to 850+ rather than 750+, then yes. 

Which he hasn't done since 2019.

Fenway might boost it some, hopefully, but if it's a park factor increase only that doesn't add much value.

As you can see, I'm digging in on this one.  The guy turned down $171.5 million!  And in spite of what notin said, Detroit seems like an OK place to play now.   

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Which he hasn't done since 2019.

Fenway might boost it some, hopefully, but if it's a park factor increase only that doesn't add much value.

As you can see, I'm digging in on this one.  The guy turned down $171.5 million!  And in spite of what notin said, Detroit seems like an OK place to play now.   

If he thinks he can get the same offer Detroit gave him, this coming winter, he may take it. It would then be $171M/5 vs $80M/2 (not $120M/3.) That's a huge difference.

[mvp 78]

59 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Which he hasn't done since 2019.

Fenway might boost it some, hopefully, but if it's a park factor increase only that doesn't add much value.

As you can see, I'm digging in on this one.  The guy turned down $171.5 million!  And in spite of what notin said, Detroit seems like an OK place to play now.   

DET was 21st for RHB in park factors (24th in HR). 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If he thinks he can get the same offer Detroit gave him, this coming winter, he may take it. It would then be $171M/5 vs $80M/2 (not $120M/3.) That's a huge difference.

So why didn't he take it last time? You don't find 51.5 million + the deferral gap a huge difference?

And of course he'll be a year older at an age where one year is huge.

To me there's kind of a logic disconnect here.

[Bellhorn04]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

DET was 21st for RHB in park factors (24th in HR). 

How much does this matter?  If hitters wanted to jack their numbers they'd all want to play for the Rockies.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So why didn't he take it last time? You don't find 51.5 million + the deferral gap a huge difference?

And of course he'll be a year older at an age where one year is huge.

To me there's kind of a logic disconnect here.

I don't know why. Maybe he liked BOS more. Maybe he thinks he could get $40M in 2025, even with much differed plus $171M/5 after this year.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How much does this matter?  If hitters wanted to jack their numbers they'd all want to play for the Rockies.

He probably wants to play in an offensive park that will make him good AND be on a team that will be somewhat competitive. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If he has a big season, he's gone IMO. 

If he stays, his next deal needs to only be 3 years $52mill to top out the Detroit offer.  Thats Tyler O’Neill money…

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

If he stays, his next deal needs to only be 3 years $52mill to top out the Detroit offer.  Thats Tyler O’Neill money…

After this season, he only needs to make more than 5/131.5 to beat the DET offer. All of his offers this year were larger than that and for a higher AAV.

[Nick John]

22 hours ago, vegasbob said:

The question was about Devers and where he should play.   

The answer is---in another city.

IMO, his shoulder conditions will become chronic , due to his savage bat swing.  He will not come close to living out his 10 year deal.   So trade him now .  Sox could get 2 position players  for this chubby dude. Maybe a top catcher and a 2Bman

Re: Casas . You can have no discussion with him about hitting or defense because you will not a word in edgewise.

There's no way you trade the face of your franchise just 2 seasons after he signed an extension. It would make it hard to sign any of the young guys like Anthony, Mayer or Campbell to extensions. Plus it wouldn't look good to free agents. 

As it is, I wouldn't say his shoulder condition will become chronic. Probably should have got shut down sooner in September to give more time to rest but it is what it is. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Nick John said:

There's no way you trade the face of your franchise just 2 seasons after he signed an extension. It would make it hard to sign any of the young guys like Anthony, Mayer or Campbell to extensions. Plus it wouldn't look good to free agents. 

As it is, I wouldn't say his shoulder condition will become chronic. Probably should have got shut down sooner in September to give more time to rest but it is what it is. 

I don't really see those as reasons to not trade Devers. I doubt it would affect anyone signings and extension. I'm not sure it would make any FA give it a thought. Most go for the money of the best opportunity for them.

Devers is our go to guy. He has been big in big moments. He was on his way to his best career year and hurt his shoulder. I doubt this injury ends his career, or he never gets back to top form.

This line-up is not good without him. That's why we should not trade him.

That being said, what would we get back? (I'm not counting on the salary relief being spent by JH.)

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, notin said:

If he stays, his next deal needs to only be 3 years $52mill to top out the Detroit offer.  Thats Tyler O’Neill money…

The total AAV of Bregman's Red Sox contract is 95 million.  Your numbers are wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

After this season, he only needs to make more than 5/131.5 to beat the DET offer. All of his offers this year were larger than that and for a higher AAV.

I can understand notin ignoring the deferrals because numbers aren't really his thing.  I assume you're just doing it to mess with me.  😛

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't really see those as reasons to not trade Devers. I doubt it would affect anyone signings and extension. I'm not sure it would make any FA give it a thought. Most go for the money of the best opportunity for them.

Devers is our go to guy. He has been big in big moments. He was on his way to his best career year and hurt his shoulder. I doubt this injury ends his career, or he never gets back to top form.

This line-up is not good without him. That's why we should not trade him.

That being said, what would we get back? (I'm not counting on the salary relief being spent by JH.)

harmony reported a little while ago that BTV had his contract with a small surplus value.  But right now with his shoulder issues, it's surely under water.  

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The total AAV of Bregman's Red Sox contract is 95 million.  Your numbers are wrong.

He will get the deferred money at some point.  I think the $95mill will pay the bills in the meantime.  He might have to cancel Netflix until then, however…

[Bellhorn04]

From Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danfreedman/2025/03/03/the-red-sox-and-alex-bregman-pulled-off-the-rare-win-win-contract/

Bregman bit even with massive deferrals in the deal. According to multiple sources, Bregman is entitled to a $5 million signing bonus that is not due to be paid until 2028. He gets $15 million this year, and $20 million in each of 2026 and 2027 (assuming he does not opt-out). The other $60 million (again, assuming he plays all three seasons) is deferred to dates ranging from 2035 to 2046.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

From Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danfreedman/2025/03/03/the-red-sox-and-alex-bregman-pulled-off-the-rare-win-win-contract/

Bregman bit even with massive deferrals in the deal. According to multiple sources, Bregman is entitled to a $5 million signing bonus that is not due to be paid until 2028. He gets $15 million this year, and $20 million in each of 2026 and 2027 (assuming he does not opt-out). The other $60 million (again, assuming he plays all three seasons) is deferred to dates ranging from 2035 to 2046.

The Bregman fam will celebrate mock parties every Bobby Bonilla Day through the '30s and '40s.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Bregman fam will celebrate mock parties every Bobby Bonilla Day through the '30s and '40s.

It is kind of hilarious that his final payment is in 2046. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Bregman fam will celebrate mock parties every Bobby Bonilla Day through the '30s and '40s.

He's going to opt out because all he has to do is make more than 131.5M on the open market this offseason to bounce. Isn't that right @Bellhorn04 ? 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's going to opt out because all he has to do is make more than 131.5M on the open market this offseason to bounce. Isn't that right @Bellhorn04 ? 

Yep, it was sheer financial brilliance on Alex's part to take this deal from the Sox.  He would have been nuts to take that 171.5 mill from the Tigers. 🙃   

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Yep, it was sheer financial brilliance on Alex's part to take this deal from the Sox.  He would have been nuts to take that 171.5 mill from the Tigers. 🙃   

I think he took it simply because of the opt outs since he's planning on opting out as it's easy to beat 131.5M in next offseason's marketplace!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The total AAV of Bregman's Red Sox contract is 95 million.  Your numbers are wrong.

$95M AAV?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The total AAV of Bregman's Red Sox contract is 95 million.  Your numbers are wrong.

I didn't realize that bregman set the record for highest single season salary, $95M/yr is amazing!

He's got one heck of an agent!