Video: The Red Sox Should Sell Out For Alex Bregman

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nomar got traded after he turned down a Red Sox offer of $60 million for four years, circa 2004.

According to Amortization.org (annual inflation of 2.58%) that's a value of about $100 million today. Btw, Garciaparra signed a one-year contract for $8.25M the next season. He was 31.

If you think that's bad, Bregman -- who will be 31 in March -- turned down Houston's offer of $156 million; in '04, that's equivalent to around $260M -- quite an increase from the offer to Nomar, who had very close to the same value as Alex B.

Nomar's bWAR in Boston: 41.2

Bregman's bWAR in Houston: 39.6

Post-script: after leaving Beantown, Garciaparra played 5 more years and earned 3 WAR. Total. Yikes...

 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, notin said:

But to say you don’t see Bregman as one of “the guys” the Sox finally spend on is kind of silly as a reason not to.  Right now, “the guys” on the Sox includes Story and Yoshida.

I will say this - if Bregman is looking at $160mill over 6 years, I don’t think that as cheap anymore…,

I'm not asking anyone to go back and Monday morning QB this thing, but just think about all the players who were FAs, and who the Sox ended up identifying and going after strong enough to be the highest bidder or the team the FA chose to sign with. We signed Price to a huge deal in 2016 and then JD to $110M/5 in 2018, then the only big deal guy we got was Story and the next might be Bregman. (Count Nate as a FS, if you must, but he was at half the money Story got, anyway.)

7 winters: Story and maybe Bregman. Those are the two "guys" we chose to target and make it happen.

This is not about sour grapes on Story. I saw the value in the signing, but still, that's it? Just one guy and that "guy" is Story, and now the next one might be "Bregman?"

I get that part of it is just being too cheap to pay more and get Semien or the like, instead of Story or someone like Fried, Burnes or FAs from the last few years vs Bregman.

Another part is just getting the mid and lower mid range signings wrong way more than right, and that is a bit of hindsight judging, but also you get what you pay for when you go for bargain deals.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Another part is just getting the mid and lower mid range signings wrong way more than right, and that is a bit of hindsight judging, but also you get what you pay for when you go for bargain deals.

Red Sox fans who buy tickets to games and subscribe to NESN or MLB streaming may disagree that they get what they pay for...

... except for those all-in on the Fenway experience, and students who get discounts for cold, Spring weeknight contests.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For those worried about the Red Sox signing Bregman -- why? Do you really think Boston is instead going to spend the savings on anybody else any decent? Are all the new kids going to be instant star hitters in the big leagues and smash open our window (with bars on it)? 

Bregman might not be a superstar, but he can immediately help change the K Kulture for a vastly overrated offense. His strikeouts per ABs last year were better than anyone's in the American League besides Kwan and Ramirez in Cleveland, and KC's Vinnie P.

Bregman in '24 also had a hard-hit rate and exit velo better than every Red Sox except Devers and Duran. He has pull power for Fenway, plus his opposite-field rate was right there with Duran's. 

He's still good, and that's better than can be said for most of our batters with big flaws in their swings. He can bring a Gold Glove to the infield and provide the veteran leadership of a champion.

The Red Sox need more major league talent. Bring on Bregman.

[drewski6]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and that was the largest FA signing in 8 winters. It was just short of the total money given to Sale over 5 years, as an extension.

If you look at this 7 year period (JD signed for $110M/5 in '18) and end up saying the two largest FA deals went to Story and Bregman, I think it would be a head-scratcher. One part being, "Is that the highest we paid?" and the other being, "Why those two?"

The next tier is significantly lower:

$90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

$68M/4 Nate (more like an extension, to me)

Then another big drop to the next tier:

$39/2 Giolito, $36M/2 Jansen

Here are some hindsight deals signed since 2019:

$118/5 Wheeler '20

$175/7 Semien '22 (pretty close AAV to Story)

$88M/5 Willson Contreras

$79M/4 Schwarber '22 (less than Yoshida)

$72M/4 T Scott '25

$64M/3 Kikuchi '25

$54M/3 Chapman (much cheaper than Bregman will be.)

$53M/4 Imanaga

$45M/3 Seth Lugo

$38M/3 Holmes, $22M/2 Minter, $12M/2 d'Arnaud or C Kelly

Why these two is because they were outbid on everyone who they wanted who was better

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For those worried about the Red Sox signing Bregman -- why?

He'll be good for the first year or two and decent for year 3. The last two years of the deal would be brutal. I don't see the Sox being legit contenders in the next two years so don't see a reason to sign a guy that will be trending in the wrong direction. He had a -2 RV on 4 seamers and a -1 on sinkers. Once a guy begins to no longer hit pitches with velo, it's the beginning of the end. He doesn't have a flyball swing and would have a lot of his balls not reach the stands in Fenway (210 career HR, 169 expected at Fenway). 

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think if they don't sign a RH hitter, our lineup of RH hitters has a chance to be one of the feeblest we've ever seen in Boston, unless Campbell does something big about it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I think if they don't sign a RH hitter, our lineup of RH hitters has a chance to be one of the feeblest we've ever seen in Boston, unless Campbell does something big about it.

Good lefties will shred the Sox, and southpaw specialists will keep them all in the park -- even the guys who practice going oppo will make a lot of weak contact. And Devers will blow out his back swinging harder than ever with nobody around him to provide protection.

[Bellhorn04]

Our RH hitters:

Refsnyder - kills lefties but righties kill him

Wong - decent numbers last year but metrics say he was lucky

Rafaela - terrifying K/BB ratio

Story - who knows

Grissom - who knows

Campbell - only real hope

(I'm not forgetting the fringy Romy who did OK last year.)

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't see the Sox being legit contenders in the next two years so don't see a reason to sign a guy 

That right there is the excuse the front office tells themselves -- a situation created by themselves.

But they just love it that some fans see this as a playoff team...

... all we need is the starting rotation to use elbow grease and have five guys average 30 games started like the '04 Sox... and the rookies to each blast 20 home runs, have a 100 RBIs and bat .300 like on the '75 Sox.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Our RH hitters:

Refsnyder - kills lefties but righties kill him

Wong - decent numbers last year but metrics say he was lucky

Rafaela - terrifying K/BB ratio

Story - who knows

Grissom - who knows

Campbell - only real hope

(I'm not forgetting the fringy Romy who did OK last year.)

Romy's 879/498 split! Never have him hit against RHP again! 

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That right there is the excuse the front office tells themselves -- a situation created by themselves.

But they just love it that some fans see this as a playoff team...

... all we need is the starting rotation to use elbow grease and have five guys average 30 games started like the '04 Sox... and the rookies to each blast 20 home runs, have a 100 RBIs and bat .300 like on the '75 Sox.

If they can get him for 3 years and overpay the AAV and have him play 3b, I'm down with the signing. I just don't want him in '28 and '29. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For those worried about the Red Sox signing Bregman -- why? Do you really think Boston is instead going to spend the savings on anybody else any decent? Are all the new kids going to be instant star hitters in the big leagues and smash open our window (with bars on it)? 

Bregman might not be a superstar, but he can immediately help change the K Kulture for a vastly overrated offense. His strikeouts per ABs last year were better than anyone's in the American League besides Kwan and Ramirez in Cleveland, and KC's Vinnie P.

Bregman in '24 also had a hard-hit rate and exit velo better than every Red Sox except Devers and Duran. He has pull power for Fenway, plus his opposite-field rate was right there with Duran's. 

He's still good, and that's better than can be said for most of our batters with big flaws in their swings. He can bring a Gold Glove to the infield and provide the veteran leadership of a champion.

The Red Sox need more major league talent. Bring on Bregman.

You’re confusing me.  Literally just 3 posts above you compare Bregman to Nomar, highlighting the death spiral that was Nomar’s career from that age on.  Now you’re calling for Bregman?

I still think the Sox will sign him, but part of me thinks the Dodgers might as well…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For those worried about the Red Sox signing Bregman -- why? Do you really think Boston is instead going to spend the savings on anybody else any decent? Are all the new kids going to be instant star hitters in the big leagues and smash open our window (with bars on it)? 

Bregman might not be a superstar, but he can immediately help change the K Kulture for a vastly overrated offense. His strikeouts per ABs last year were better than anyone's in the American League besides Kwan and Ramirez in Cleveland, and KC's Vinnie P.

Bregman in '24 also had a hard-hit rate and exit velo better than every Red Sox except Devers and Duran. He has pull power for Fenway, plus his opposite-field rate was right there with Duran's. 

He's still good, and that's better than can be said for most of our batters with big flaws in their swings. He can bring a Gold Glove to the infield and provide the veteran leadership of a champion.

The Red Sox need more major league talent. Bring on Bregman.

It's not worry: it's wonderment.

Of course, I'd be happy to see us fix two of what I view as out top 5-6 high need areas, assuming he starts at 3B. I just wonder, "why him?"

Because he's the last decent FA remaining?

Because maybe his price will fall into JH's range?

Because they don't think they have shammed the fans into enough interest to turn a big buck?

We will, indeed, be much better with Bregman than without. That's a good thing, but we all know one thing for sure: a dollar spent by JH< now, will be a dollar not spent tomorrow. It's always an either/or situation, and signing Bregman, now, mean not filling a need that develops, later- maybe 2 or 3 needs.

We can also look at just this winter and ask, was this the best way to spend the winter budget handed to Brez? Assuming Bregman gets $160M/7, we could have gotten Scott & Teoscar for less, "in theory," (I'm sure we could come up with other combos of 2-3 others.

I get the sense that the Sox upper brass is not feeling the level of angst fro Sox Nation, perhaps they should. The whole Dodger situation has made many MLB fans throw their arms in the air and think there is no hope our team can compete with that. 

We stick with our one and done deals and make a splashy trade for a 2 year deal. Whoop-Deee- Freakin'- Dooooo!

But hey, they tell us, "We have a bunch of injured players returning," like this is something new and promising.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Why these two is because they were outbid on everyone who they wanted who was better

Of course that is at least half of the issue, but if we really chose someone else over Story, Yoshida or maybe Bregman, we could have chosen to "do what it takes" to land him. Instead we outbid everyone for Story & Yoshida, and now, maybe Bregman.

Yes, it's kinda like War Games, where our objective is "not to play the game," but it is also making poor choices on the games (guys) we do choose to play. We are plating tic-tac-toe, while others are playing 3D chess.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Our RH hitters:

Refsnyder - kills lefties but righties kill him

Wong - decent numbers last year but metrics say he was lucky

Rafaela - terrifying K/BB ratio

Story - who knows

Grissom - who knows

Campbell - only real hope

(I'm not forgetting the fringy Romy who did OK last year.)

 

 

Wong actually has career reverse splits, and there are lefties that hit lefties better than he does. (.686/.727)

2023-2024 OPS vs LHPs (Returning players only)

.886 Refsnyder

.879 Romy (may start in AAA)

.794 Casas (talk of trading him)

.749 Devers

.721 Wong

**** NEWSFLASH: Here is where Bregman places at .704 ****

.680 Duran (YIKES! Our leadoff hitter!)

.669 Yoshida (the guy we designate as a hitter)

**** 2nd NEWSFLASH: Arenado at .654 ****

.610 Rafaela (also reverse career splits)

.573 Story (one guy we hope might be the savior)

.539 DHam (should never start vs a LHP)

.514 Abreu (see DHam comment)

[Bellhorn04]

It appears that the Sox big weakness in 2024 was actually a same-hand problem.

Our righties couldn't hit righties (.646.)

And our lefties couldn't lefties (.629).

Horrific!

Yankees:

RH vs RH .783

LH vs LH .698

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It appears that the Sox big weakness in 2024 was actually a same-hand problem.

Our righties couldn't hit righties (.646.)

And our lefties couldn't lefties (.629).

Horrific!

Yankees:

RH vs RH .783

LH vs LH .698

Not enough space on the roster to platoon everyone unfortunately.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It appears that the Sox big weakness in 2024 was actually a same-hand problem.

Our righties couldn't hit righties (.646.)

And our lefties couldn't lefties (.629).

Horrific!

Yankees:

RH vs RH .783

LH vs LH .698

This probably what matters most:

League vs RHP: .711/ Sox .747 (+37)

League vs LHP: .711/ Sox .728 (+17)

No park factors included, here.

 

But these numbers are interesting:

League RHB v RHP .691/ Sox .646 (-45)

League RHB v LHP .728/ Sox .815 (+87)

League LHB v RHP .734/ Sox .813 (+79)

League LHB v LHP .668/ Sox .628 (-40)

We never hear about our RHBs vs RHPs, which is our worst split and it happens more often than any other split.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

You’re confusing me.  Literally just 3 posts above you compare Bregman to Nomar, highlighting the death spiral that was Nomar’s career from that age on.  Now you’re calling for Bregman?

I still think the Sox will sign him, but part of me thinks the Dodgers might as well…

The Nomar post was to show why the front office won't sign Bregman. Remember, Epstein is now an employee again, and he's the one who can show them all stats to justify how he traded Nomar just in time (though Theo was part of the high command that made the offer Cherry Garciaparra turned down).

My Bregman post was why Boston should sign him -- to upgrade the position player roster back to mediocrity...

... because we all know if they don't sign him, it's not like the Sox are going to spend on someone else instead -- especially, not someone better. Still body-surfing at the beach: not this wave, the next one!

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not enough space on the roster to platoon everyone unfortunately.

There are a few that scream out, "DONT START ME Vs THIS HANDED PITCHER!)

vs LHPs: Abreu & DHam

vs RHPs: Romy & Ref

All these 4 are also among our leaders in OPS vs the "better handed pitcher," so 2 platoons jump out at me:

DHam-Romy at 2B (The other makes for a decent utility guy when not starting.) Campbell could end the whole 2B platoon with a call-up.

Ref (LF)- Abreu (RF) with Duran moving to CF, when Ref is in LF. (Both can PH or Abreu could be a late inning defensive replacement for Ref.)

We can "tolerate" Duran's low OPS vs LHPs, since he still had an acceptable .320 OBP and is such a great base stealer.

Rafaela needs to start hitting both hands, better, or he will become our super utilityman.

Devers and Casas hit LHPs well enough to never need a platoon. Story remains the great unknown on O.

Yoshida could be platooned with Ref at DH with Rafaela & Abreu, if Anthony (or Campbell) win a FT OF slot in 2025.

Grissom needs to prove, a lot, in 2025- beyond splits.

With no additions, could these be the line-ups?

vs RHP

1. L Duran LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. L Abreu RF

6. L Yoshida DH

7.  R Wong/ R Narvaez

8. L DHam 2B

9. R Rafaela CF

vs LHP

1. L Duran CF

2. R Refsnyder LF

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH

7. R Romy 2B

8. R Wong/ R Narvaez

9. R Rafaela RF

8. 

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He'll be good for the first year or two and decent for year 3. The last two years of the deal would be brutal. I don't see the Sox being legit contenders in the next two years so don't see a reason to sign a guy that will be trending in the wrong direction. He had a -2 RV on 4 seamers and a -1 on sinkers. Once a guy begins to no longer hit pitches with velo, it's the beginning of the end. He doesn't have a flyball swing and would have a lot of his balls not reach the stands in Fenway (210 career HR, 169 expected at Fenway). 

Good early in the contract is best case for most free agents.

The whole “our window isn’t open yet” feels like a self-fulfilling excuse.  It turns into an endless cycle of “Our window to win won’t open until we get good players.”  “But we shouldn’t get good players until we’re in a position to win.”

Just get the good players and make your own window…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Good early in the contract is best case for most free agents.

The whole “our window isn’t open yet” feels like a self-fulfilling excuse.  It turns into an endless cycle of “Our window to win won’t open until we get good players.”  “But we shouldn’t get good players until we’re in a position to win.”

Just get the good players and make your own window…

Thank you for paraphrasing my posts from the past half-decade.

Right now in New England, wind-chill temps are reaching below-zero.

It just gives the Red Sox front office another excuse -- just when I thought we could get some fresh air, they  slam the window shut again.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Just get the good players and make your own window…

Sure, now to set the clock back to 12/1/24 and acquire some top flight relievers!

OOOPS they did it again. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Thank you for paraphrasing my posts from the past half-decade.

Right now in New England, wind-chill temps are reaching below-zero.

It just gives the Red Sox front office another excuse -- just when I thought we could get some fresh air, they  slam the window shut again.

Even if they sign Bregman, what's the other move? There needs to be more to come, because this team ain't it! They already let the best relievers get signed. The catching situation is ROUGH long term. They are leaning heavily on young players who haven't played in the bigs yet. 

[mvp 78]

Your arguments for signing Bregman come down to "well they gotta sign somebody!" A truly horrible strategy of signing a player just to sign a player. 

I don't like the player plain and simple. 3 years at 3b or nothing IMO. Anything more or a move to 2b is dumb dumb dumb.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they sign Bregman, what's the other move? There needs to be more to come, because this team ain't it! They already let the best relievers get signed. The catching situation is ROUGH long term. They are leaning heavily on young players who haven't played in the bigs yet. 

And that's why we won't see them start off the year in Boston. Because if one or both or eegads, all three struggle, it totally exposes the front office mantra of "the future core, the-core the-corp the-corpse."

(even though erudite fans such as we know full well that most new guys have to adjust to MLB growing pains before they transition into faces of the franchise)

Imagine the letdown if Red Sox Nation realizes the prospect hype was just an excuse not to upgrade the big league roster with actual talent all these blooming years of breslowering expectations.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Good early in the contract is best case for most free agents.

The whole “our window isn’t open yet” feels like a self-fulfilling excuse.  It turns into an endless cycle of “Our window to win won’t open until we get good players.”  “But we shouldn’t get good players until we’re in a position to win.”

Just get the good players and make your own window…

Many of the highest paid FAs were not all that good year one or year two.

1. Ohtani '24 MVP (but did not pitch 1 inning), Yr 2 pending

2. Machado '19 (.796 yr 1, 3rd in MVP yr 2) 

3. Seager '22 (.772 yr 1, 2nd MVP yr 2)

4. Yamo '24 (3.00 ERA in 18 GS/ yr 2 pending)

5. Cole '20 (4th in CYA, 2nd CYA- won CYA yr 4)

6. T Turner '23 (.778 and .815- both below career OPS)

7. Bogey '23 (.790 & .688 first 2 years)

8. ARod '07  (MVP, 8th MVP)

9. ARod '01 (6th MVP, 2nd MVP)

10. Rendon '20 (.915 then collapse to .712 and down every yr afterwards)

11. Pujols '12 (.859 yr 1 was almost 200 pt drop, then .767)

12. Cano '14 (.736 yr 1, then injuries)

13. Price '16 (dropped from 179 ERA+ to 112 yr 1 and 135 yr 2)

14. Fielder '12 (.940 to .819)

15. Scherzer '15 (CYA 5, CYA yr 2 and 3)

16. Greinke '16 (4.37 ERA then 4th CYA)

17. Correa '23 (.834 and .711)

Top Extensions: over $300M:  Trout (kind of a bust), Betts (BAM), Judge (BAM), Lindor (.734, .788 OPS) Machado, Tatis, Harper, Devers

[moonslav59]

Well, the Sox can still sign Bregman and be comfortably under the first tax line. They could maybe even sign Bregman to about $25-26M and still add a decent RP'er. Extensions could kick in after opening day, if that's the way the want to structure the budget.

Again, the only way I'm okay with signing him is to play 3B.

1. L Duran CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas DH/1B

4. L Devers 1B/DH

5. R Story SS (Mayer)

6. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder LF

7. L Yoshida LF/ R Rafaela RF (Anthony)

8. R Wong/ R Narvaez C

9. L DHam/ R Romy 2B (Campbell?)

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, now to set the clock back to 12/1/24 and acquire some top flight relievers!

OOOPS they did it again. 

Sam Kennedy painted the window shut…