Article: The Red Sox Don’t Need to Sign Alex Bregman

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm on the Wilson hype train. He'll be as good as two Joelys. 

Joely was worth -0.7 bWAR for Boston.  And you’re telling me Wilson can DOUBLE that?  I’m sold!

[notin]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Since you mention a couple platoons, why not one at 2B? DHam is ok vs RHPs and is a great baserunner.He sbetter on D than Grissom, too.

Possible, but I optioned Hamilton to Worcester in order to keep Romy. 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Possible, but I optioned Hamilton to Worcester in order to keep Romy. 

Maybe they'd do that because Romy can play 1B? I don't like it though. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Possible, but I optioned Hamilton to Worcester in order to keep Romy. 

Romy does give us better defense at SS, as a back-up, and can play 1B & 3B, but I'd put Romy in AAA to start the season. DHam's speed and good D at 2B make him a good platoon for Grissom.

Now, if Grissom is looking like  a FT'er in ST'ing, I can see going your route.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy does give us better defense at SS, as a back-up, and can play 1B & 3B, but I'd put Romy in AAA to start the season. DHam's speed and good D at 2B make him a good platoon for Grissom.

Now, if Grissom is looking like  a FT'er in ST'ing, I can see going your route.

Not sure the sample size is large enough for me to determine if he's better at SS than Hamilton. The only benefit to Romy is that he can play every position except C. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not sure the sample size is large enough for me to determine if he's better at SS than Hamilton. The only benefit to Romy is that he can play every position except C. 

The sample size shows, to me, that nearly everybody is better than DHam at SS defense.

OAA 2023-2024:

11. Story +10 (projects to top 4-5 with more innings)

24. Yu Chang +4 (very limited time and long gone.)

48. Romy +1 (2 teams) & Sogard (tiny sample)

81. Reyes -1 (adios)

120. DHam -6 (out of 135 players on the list)

DHam has played over 520 innings at SS (about 2/3 of his total in MLB) and has over 1900 innings at SS in the minors. He is not good on D at SS. I think it's very safe to say he sucks there.

Romy's sample size at SS is small (116 innings in MLB out of 973 total.) If he was real good at SS D, you'd expect more, so I get your point. In the minors, he did play more SS than anywhere else: 841 SS, 712 OF, 233 2B, 141 1B, 87 3B. In college, he played mostly at 3B, then 2B with only 11 gms at SS.

Point well-taken, but I give the nod to Romy.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The sample size shows, to me, that nearly everybody is better than DHam at SS defense.

OAA 2023-2024:

11. Story +10 (projects to top 4-5 with more innings)

24. Yu Chang +4 (very limited time and long gone.)

48. Romy +1 (2 teams) & Sogard (tiny sample)

81. Reyes -1 (adios)

120. DHam -6 (out of 135 players on the list)

DHam has played over 520 innings at SS (about 2/3 of his total in MLB) and has over 1900 innings at SS in the minors. He is not good on D at SS. I think it's very safe to say he sucks there.

Romy's sample size at SS is small (116 innings in MLB out of 973 total.) If he was real good at SS D, you'd expect more, so I get your point. In the minors, he did play more SS than anywhere else: 841 SS, 712 OF, 233 2B, 141 1B, 87 3B. In college, he played mostly at 3B, then 2B with only 11 gms at SS.

Point well-taken, but I give the nod to Romy.

Rafaela had a -7 OAA last year (-8 for 23/24), but I'd take him over Romy or Hamilton going forward to be the SS. I'm willing to ignore Kiké's -12 OAA. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe they'd do that because Romy can play 1B? I don't like it though. 

It allows Boston to retain both players…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy does give us better defense at SS, as a back-up, and can play 1B & 3B, but I'd put Romy in AAA to start the season. DHam's speed and good D at 2B make him a good platoon for Grissom.

Now, if Grissom is looking like  a FT'er in ST'ing, I can see going your route.

It’s pretty unlikely any of Grissom, Hamilton or Romy takes over 2b and runs with uh, although Campbell might.  But this is just a guess until that situation sorts itself out…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s pretty unlikely any of Grissom, Hamilton or Romy takes over 2b and runs with uh, although Campbell might.  But this is just a guess until that situation sorts itself out…

I do think all 3 show some promise, but need to step up a notch or two to win the job FT.

DHam needs to hit LHPs to win the FT job. He is currently good enough vs RHPs and on D, and his baserunning skills give him a decent bump up, if he lacks a little vs LHPs.

Grissom needs to improve his defense (or prove it at 2B.) He also needs to prove his offense from earlier in his career was not a fluke.

Romy is a bit of a wild card. His bat could take off, or continue to be a question mark. His defense  seems fine, but does not have a large sample size at 2B. He seems more like the ultimate utility guy who can play 7 positions, pretty well, while not killing you on offense.

Campbell looks like the only all around talent, but is unproven at the ML level and isn't even on the 40, yet.

Between these 4 guys, I'm confident one will rise to the top, and do well enough to not make 2B a hole, or a decent platoon situation will prevail. I kinda like a DHam-Grissom platoon, despite the poor projected defense by Grissom vs LH'd SP'ers, which is not a whole lot of games, thankfully.)

[drewski6]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think all 3 show some promise, but need to step up a notch or two to win the job FT.

DHam needs to hit LHPs to win the FT job. He is currently good enough vs RHPs and on D, and his baserunning skills give him a decent bump up, if he lacks a little vs LHPs.

Grissom needs to improve his defense (or prove it at 2B.) He also needs to prove his offense from earlier in his career was not a fluke.

Romy is a bit of a wild card. His bat could take off, or continue to be a question mark. His defense  seems fine, but does not have a large sample size at 2B. He seems more like the ultimate utility guy who can play 7 positions, pretty well, while not killing you on offense.

Campbell looks like the only all around talent, but is unproven at the ML level and isn't even on the 40, yet.

Between these 4 guys, I'm confident one will rise to the top, and do well enough to not make 2B a hole, or a decent platoon situation will prevail. I kinda like a DHam-Grissom platoon, despite the poor projected defense by Grissom vs LH'd SP'ers, which is not a whole lot of games, thankfully.)

Sure, but didnt you also say we are middle 5 in hitting in a pathetic AL? Thats mediocre, and thats your projection which is more rosy than national projectors / fangraphs, whichare saying that we are only better than the pathetic white sox. While I agree more with your placement than the ones that have us somehow worse than the rays positionally, I still think we need to raise the ceiling.

Its like we go out of our way to sign 4 starters, panic about the defense, but the batting (which I think will impact our success more than anything) is like, its fine, we'll figure it out.

And part of me thinks that we're taking things for granted.  "We finished 9th last year in hitting" Not close to good enough! We should lead with our bats. Always. Hitting + baserunning = pitching + defense AND defense more important than baserunning. So hitting is #1, and ours isnt good enough. Full stop.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It allows Boston to retain both players…

Romy has options as well.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Romy has options as well.

Then he can be optioned.  It’s not really a big deal, and I have my doubts as to the overall importance concerning which one breaks camp as the utility infielder…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, but didnt you also say we are middle 5 in hitting in a pathetic AL? Thats mediocre, and thats your projection which is more rosy than national projectors / fangraphs, whichare saying that we are only better than the pathetic white sox. While I agree more with your placement than the ones that have us somehow worse than the rays positionally, I still think we need to raise the ceiling.

Its like we go out of our way to sign 4 starters, panic about the defense, but the batting (which I think will impact our success more than anything) is like, its fine, we'll figure it out.

And part of me thinks that we're taking things for granted.  "We finished 9th last year in hitting" Not close to good enough! We should lead with our bats. Always. Hitting + baserunning = pitching + defense AND defense more important than baserunning. So hitting is #1, and ours isnt good enough. Full stop.

I could be wrong, but isn't the 14th out of 15th ranking for positional players including defense?

I doubt we are 14th in batting, but they don't list fielding. I'm not sure.

We were tied for 10th in all of MLB in wRC+, last year. We were 11th in fangraph's batting ranking in '24. I don't see losing O' Neill dropping us 10 slots. We should gaing more games played by Casas + Story than O'Neill played for us (113.)

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I could be wrong, but isn't the 14th out of 15th ranking for positional players including defense?

I doubt we are 14th in batting, but they don't list fielding. I'm not sure.

We were tied for 10th in all of MLB in wRC+, last year. We were 11th in fangraph's batting ranking in '24. I don't see losing O' Neill dropping us 10 slots. We should gaing more games played by Casas + Story than O'Neill played for us (113.)

Yes, it must include defense.

[notin]

I think they’re going to sign Bregman…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I think they’re going to sign Bregman…

I was thinking that, today. DET got Torres. The Yanks got Fried. AZ spent unexpectedly on Burnes.

It seems this would be an "afterthought" signing or one to try and get JH & Co back into the good graces of fans who are disgusted by his 6 year, tight wallet. 

Bregman was not in my top list of FAs I felt were a good fit. Now that we added 2 SP'ers, all the SP'ers on the board are off limits to Brez, IMO. I doubt we sign Scott, and I have little hope we add a second tier RP'er, so it comes down to just a handful of players that fill a need. Only Bregman fills 2 needs (RHB & 3B defense, if we actually sign him to play there.) Alonso fits the RHB need, but he'd crowd the 1B/DH role, already loaded up with Casas and Devers (1B) and Yoshida, Ref, Casas & Devers (DH.) Santander fill the RHB problem, but wants too many years and play OF- our strongest position.

I won't be pissed, if we sign Bregman, unless they announce he'll play 2B. I'll be happy JH decided to finally outbid someone on a "real" FA big shot, but when you look at all the "so close" signings from the past few years, Bregman does not strike me as the "one we had to get."

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking that, today. DET got Torres. The Yanks got Fried. AZ spent unexpectedly on Burnes.

It seems this would be an "afterthought" signing or one to try and get JH & Co back into the good graces of fans who are disgusted by his 6 year, tight wallet. 

Bregman was not in my top list of FAs I felt were a good fit. Now that we added 2 SP'ers, all the SP'ers on the board are off limits to Brez, IMO. I doubt we sign Scott, and I have little hope we add a second tier RP'er, so it comes down to just a handful of players that fill a need. Only Bregman fills 2 needs (RHB & 3B defense, if we actually sign him to play there.) Alonso fits the RHB need, but he'd crowd the 1B/DH role, already loaded up with Casas and Devers (1B) and Yoshida, Ref, Casas & Devers (DH.) Santander fill the RHB problem, but wants too many years and play OF- our strongest position.

I won't be pissed, if we sign Bregman, unless they announce he'll play 2B. I'll be happy JH decided to finally outbid someone on a "real" FA big shot, but when you look at all the "so close" signings from the past few years, Bregman does not strike me as the "one we had to get."

The Sox will sign him to play 2b over Grissom/ Hamilton/Campbell.  I think they’re hoping to offload Yoshida first, but as there will be minimal interest, and since Cora rarely cares about defense anyway (although surprisingly said Rafaela will play CF as much as possible), the Sox at 2b are a rare remaining fit for Bregman.  Unless the Dodgers finally realize Max Muncy looks like an oversized garden gnome with self control issues, and decides Bregman is a better fit at 3b.

I know it blocks Campbell but 1) if Campbell doesn’t take the job anyway, who gets helped by holding the position for him, and 2) it really doesn’t block Campbell, since Bregman is very likely to shift back to 3b at some point in the near future…

[notin]

Your 2025 Red Sox (opening day, barring injuries)

This is a prediction; not a wish list.  In fact, quite far from a wish list.

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Bregman

3b: Devers

SS: Story

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu/Refsnyder

DH: Yoshida/Romy Gonzalez

BN: Narvaez, Hamilton

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito

RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Chapman, Whitlock, Wilson, Winckowski, Guerrero, Crawford

[Bellhorn04]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox will sign him to play 2b over Grissom/ Hamilton/Campbell.  I think they’re hoping to offload Yoshida first, but as there will be minimal interest, and since Cora rarely cares about defense anyway (although surprisingly said Rafaela will play CF as much as possible), the Sox at 2b are a rare remaining fit for Bregman.  Unless the Dodgers finally realize Max Muncy looks like an oversized garden gnome with self control issues, and decides Bregman is a better fit at 3b.

I know it blocks Campbell but 1) if Campbell doesn’t take the job anyway, who gets helped by holding the position for him, and 2) it really doesn’t block Campbell, since Bregman is very likely to shift back to 3b at some point in the near future…

Makes some sense baseball-wise, but is it enough to justify a $25 million AAV addition to the payroll for the next 6 years?  Especially when the player's fit and value are both just a bit iffy.  

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Makes some sense baseball-wise, but is it enough to justify a $25 million AAV addition to the payroll for the next 6 years?  Especially when the player's fit and value are both just a bit iffy.  

No.  
 

But if everything has to make justifiable sense, making no moves becomes a lot more understandable.

Bregman’s fit is better than I want to admit, as he can start off as a stopgap at 2b and then move into 3b to help upgrade the corner INF/DH mess, which gets further clarified if the Sox can ever move Yoshida or Casas.  (Yoshida does have 3 options left; Worcester isn’t out of the picture for him.)   It’s entirely possible Bregman could even fill in at SS in the event of another Story injury, although Rafaela makes more sense to do so.

Bregman himself is looking at limited options.  Detroit might be interested, but they also have their own top prospect Jace Jung who happens to play 3b and made his MLB debut last year. Not sure what other teams might be interested.  I suppose Toronto, but their interest in free agents is getting comical…

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know, I obviously have very little faith left in the Sox will to expend that kind of money.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know, I obviously have very little faith left in the Sox will to expend that kind of money.

I have faith in them making unwise expenditures for show.  See Devers, Rafael.

I’m also not sure how much Bregman will sign for.  As he is already 31, he might not be all too eager for a “prove it” contract…

[Bellhorn04]

Alex is clearly not such a hot commodity.  He might be this year's Bellinger/Chapman, another Boras client coming in expecting too much and ending up hung out to dry.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Alex is clearly not such a hot commodity.  He might be this year's Bellinger/Chapman, another Boras client coming in expecting too much and ending up hung out to dry.

It seems like the Sox are counting on that.

What worries me is the disconnect regarding Bregman’s position….

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/2/2025 at 9:13 AM, notin said:

The Sox could DFA Yoshida.  Or demote him.  Both moves are legal. I also would have accepted “trading Casas” here.

As for Flaherty, no idea.  How long is he being offered now?  And I’m shocked you don’t think Flaherty can push Bello to the bullpen.

Does this mean you’re on board with Santander?

At this point the Sox do not need Flaherty as their rotation is set. I am almost certain Flaherty will not be worth the contract he gets which is why he is still out there IMO. I'm fine with Bello.

[Randy Red Sox]

17 hours ago, notin said:

I think they’re going to sign Bregman…

i hope not but if he accepts a 1 yr deal then maybe

[Bellhorn04]

The fact is we have Devers, Story, Mayer, Campbell, Grissom and Casas for 4 infield spots, not even counting Hamilton or Romy. 

Forking out for Bregman is extemely unlikely, IMHO.    

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

At this point the Sox do not need Flaherty as their rotation is set. I am almost certain Flaherty will not be worth the contract he gets which is why he is still out there IMO. I'm fine with Bello.

I think the rotation is set, too.  I was responding to a comment that there was no one left in free agency that represented an improvement.  

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The fact is we have Devers, Story, Mayer, Campbell, Grissom and Casas for 4 infield spots, not even counting Hamilton or Romy. 

Forking out for Bregman is extemely unlikely, IMHO.    

I don’t think there is as much there as you think.

Devers is locked in to one of the 4 spots.  As is Story, although as locks go, he’s not one of those ones you shoot with a gun in a commercial, if you get my drift (and arcane reference).  

Romy and Hamilton are not so much part of the starting four infield spots, either.  They shouldn’t be counted. (And Romy might be a DFA candidate.)

So with two “locks”, that leaves two spots for Bregman, Casas, Mayer, Grissom, and Campbell.  
 

Casas has refused an extension.  His time might be short.  And the addition of Bregman might push someone into a DH role.  
 

That leaves the prospect bunch (Grissom, Campbell, Mayer) potentially fighting for one spot, unless there are injuries or trades…