Article: What if the Red Sox Are Done Adding?

[Caleb Kohn]

As it's currently constructed, how much better is the Red Sox roster today than it was last season?

With several big-name superstars hitting free agency, this offseason had the potential to alter the landscape across the sport, but especially for the Red Sox. When the World Series ended, the Red Sox gave every impression that they would be in on every marquee free agent, from Juan Soto to Corbin Burnes to Max Fried. The Christmas season rolled around with hopes of a big splash still high, but other than a trade for a relief pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery and an aging reliever with a checkered past, not much happened over the holidays, at least not for Boston. The Dodgers brought back Teoscar Hernández for three years at $66 million. The Diamondbacks signed coveted ace Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210-million deal. The Astros added Christian Walker on a three-year deal.

While Craig Breslow did manage to swing a deal for Garrett Crochet, adding a big-time arm to the rotation, the Red Soc haven’t made a move that really feels like it moves the needle for the team as a whole. Yes, the starting rotation is deeper, but it’s full of arms coming off serious injuries. The lineup has lost Tyler O’Neill, the team leader in home runs and the big, right-handed bat needed to take advantage of Fenway Park while balancing out a lefty-laden lineup. The Red Sox indicated their interest in signing Teoscar Hernández to replace him, but that was never really happening, as a return to the champion Dodgers seemed inevitable. Few options remain on the free agent market who would be a fit for the Red Sox positionally. Even the most likely addition, Alex Bregman, would likely be playing out of position at second base if he signed in Boston. With what’s left on the market, it’s getting to the point where we wonder: Is this it? The team brass stated publicly that their intention was to compete for the division title this season, but have they done enough to improve the team? If this is all they’ve done, have they actually improved the team enough to contend?

Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox 40-man roster could look like if the season started today.

Starting Rotation Options
Garrett Crochet
Tanner Houck
Brayan Bello
Walker Bueller
Kutter Crawford

Starting Depth Options
Lucas Giolito (Returning from Tommy John)
Patrick Sandoval (Unavailable until at least July)
Garrett Whitlock (Returning from surgery, may find himself in the bullpen)
Richard Fitts
Quinn Priester
Cooper Criswell

Lineup
C: Connor Wong/Carlos Narváez
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Vaughn Grissom/David Hamilton
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Trevor Story
LF: Jarren Duran
CF: Ceddanne Rafaela
RF: Wilyer Abreu/Rob Refsnyder
DH: Masataka Yoshida

Bench Options
Nick Sogard
Romy Gonzalez
Jhostynxon Garcia  

Bullpen
Liam Hendricks
Aroldis Chapman
Justin Slaten
Zack Kelly
Greg Weissert
Luis Guerrero
Hunter Dobbins
Justin Wilson
Josh Winckowski

Brennan Bernardino
Zach Penrod
Luis Perales
Chase Shugart
Garrett Whitlock (Returning from surgery)
Chris Murphy

There is an argument that this Red Sox team could be worse than the 2024 iteration that finished behind both the Yankees and Orioles with an 81-81 record. While the Orioles are unlikely to add big in free agency beyond signing Tyler O’Neill, they have an abundance of young talent that is likely to take a step forward. The Yankees may have lost Juan Soto, but they should get a full season of Jasson Domínguez, and they have strengthened their pitching staff and bullpen with the signing of Max Fried and the trade for Devin Williams. The Red Sox’ additions barely keep pace, and one great starting pitcher certainly doesn’t vault them past two teams that were better, even before their offseason additions.

With regard to the starting rotation, it’s important to remember that the Red Sox likely punched above their weight in 2024. Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Cooper Criswell all just had the best seasons of their career, which means they’re likely to regress some next season. It’s just not reasonable to assume that they’ll all pitch equally well in 2025. Swapping out Walker Buehler for Nick Pivetta could be an improvement, but there’s no guarantee of that. There’s no way to know what to expect from Lucas Giolito, and even if Patrick Sandoval pitches brilliantly, he’ll only be on the field for a maximum of half a season. The rotation added some upside and a true ace in Crochet, but it also added a ton of uncertainty.

There are three main areas of concern that I would hope could be addressed by opening day.

Add a Right-Handed Bat

This one is quite simple. The Red Sox lost Tyler O’Neill, whose 31 homers led the team and whose 2.5 fWAR were fourth among the team’s position players. They haven’t added anyone who can step up and replace his production.

The Red Sox need some thump from the right side of the plate. Not only does the ballpark favor right-handed batters, but six of the nine projected starters are left-handed, as are two of the team’s Big Three prospects. Lineup balance is not going to come from within, at least not any time soon. As mentioned before, there aren’t many options on the market who would be a fit positionally. Alex Bregman’s name has been circulating since the end of the season, and although he’s definitely not headed back to Houston, the Red Sox aren’t the only team interested in him. The Bregman situation may be complicated by the Red Sox not completing a trade with Seattle that would have sent Triston Casas packing in exchange for Luis Castillo. That would have freed up a space for Boston to potentially move Devers across the diamond and keep Bregman at the hot corner. Bregman was a gold glover in 2024 and would be an immediate upgrade defensively, something the Red Sox struggled mightily with the last few seasons. It is rumored that Bregman would be opening to moving positions for the right situation, but it is unclear if playing second base for Boston would qualify as one of those situations.

The only other impact bats still on the market are Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso. Alonso wouldn’t make sense for the Red Sox, as they’ve already got Triston Casas, and Santander is a real defensive liability in the outfield. He would make sense slotting in to play some outfield and some DH, but he wouldn’t represent a significant upgrade over O’Neill.

Signing shortstop Ha-Seong Kim represents another possibility. Kim isn’t a particularly strong hitter, but he’s an excellent defender, and the Red Sox are particularly short in the middle infield. Trevor Story has been injured for nearly all of his tenure in Boston, and second base is currently the team’s weakest position. He wouldn’t replace O’Neill’s offensive production, but he would be an improvement, and he could help shore up the leaky infield defense.

Strengthen the Bullpen

The bullpen hasn’t been a strength for the Red Sox in recent seasons, as the lack of starting pitching depth has worn down even the best relievers. The expected departure of Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen only adds to need for an upgrade. While Breslow has added some pieces to the ‘pen so far, I am not sure that they represent much of an improvement. The main objective was to add some swing-and-miss, and that has come in the form of Justin Wilson (ERA over 5.00), Aroldis Chapman (good numbers, but prone to blow-ups), and Jovani Morán (returning from Tommy John surgery). While all three have good underlying metrics and are capable of racking up whiffs, they haven’t necessarily been excellent at basic run prevention. It turns out swing-and-miss only helps if they can do it three times, and without leaving one over the middle of the plate in between. Perhaps the revamped pitching machine that Andrew Bailey is building will help identify repertoire or usage changes that will take them to the next level. Or maybe we patched a leaky bullpen with masking tape that will come undone by the All-Star break again. We shall see.

The good news is there are plenty of high-end relief arms still on the market. Tanner Scott was lights out for the Marlins and Padres last year and would bring another power lefty option that could get lefties and righties out. Jeff Hoffman and David Robertson are also still available, and we shouldn’t rule out Kenley Jansen or Chris Martin, both of whom remain unsigned.

The team also has some intriguing internal options. Garrett Whitlock is likely to pitch out of the bullpen this year as he returns from injury, and he has dominated in that role in the past. The reduced workload could also help him to stay healthy through a full season. Lucas Giolito has every intention of being a starter, but with the suddenly crowded starting rotation, there could be a position battle between Giolito and Kutter Crawford for the fifth rotation spot. It is highly unlikely that the loser of that battle gets sent to the minors, so the bullpen would seem like the obvious destination. While both pitchers have been effective as starters, we have seen stuff play up when a starter moves to the pen and can empty the tank for an inning (see Nick Pivetta). This could be a surprising but significant upgrade.

The Catching Situation

While this may not be an immediate need, it is going to be one by the end of the year. Connor Wong took some large strides forward with the bat in 2024, but he was the recipient of quite a bit of batted ball luck. More importantly, his defense has ranked toward at the bottom of the league in 2024. Both his blocking and framing hurt his pitchers. If this team has aspirations of contending for the division, they’ll need more. By trading Kyle Teel for Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox turned the catcher of the future in to the ace of today. While that need was definitely more pressing, not being able to get the trade done with our surplus of young outfielders or middle infielders creates a large lack of depth.

The free agent market held a couple good catchers and many solid ones, but the Red Sox eschewed free agency entirely. They gave up their top-ranked pitching prospect Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz for Carlos Narváez, a passable catcher who ranked fourth on the Yankees’ depth chart. This was a real area of need, which meant that it was a real area where the team could make a big improvement, and they decided not to do so.

If Boston finds itself as a buyer at the trade deadline, don’t be surprised to the team bring a veteran catcher. A reunion with Christian Vázquez is a possibility, as the Twins have indicated he may be available. Another possibility could be Sean Murphy of the Braves, who is coming off a down year.

It’s genuinely exciting that the Red Sox decided to strengthen the starting rotation, but so far, they haven’t replaced O’Neill and have more or less treaded water with regard to the bullpen, and the catching situation. Narváez is the only player they’ve brought in who has several years of team control. Maybe Craig Breslow and company feel that the team was close already enough to contending that these smaller moves would put them over the hump, or maybe they felt like this wasn’t the year to make a splash on the free agent market. Either way, it does not yet feel like they are making their best effort to build a championship team.

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[Michigan Adam2]

At least 2 of the 3 big prospects will get a solid chance to be involved this season,albeit maybe not out of spring training for service time reasons. 

[Bellhorn04]

Good piece, Caleb.  And I agree, they still don't seem to be making their best effort, for reasons only they are privy to. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Good piece, Caleb.  And I agree, they still don't seem to be making their best effort, for reasons only they are privy to. 

Strategy. Sam's claim they could exceed the CBT this winter was not mere bluster. The window was opening, but Sam bloviated it shut before any of Henry's money could fly out.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Strategy. Sam's claim they could exceed the CBT this winter was not mere bluster. The window was opening, but Sam bloviated it shut before any of Henry's money could fly out.

Sam has now been tasked with subtly walking back that comment while at the same time chastising us all a bit more for doubting their tireless, well-meaning efforts.  

[harmony]

 

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Good piece, Caleb.  And I agree, they still don't seem to be making their best effort, for reasons only they are privy to. 

mainly John Henry clutching his wallet tightly

[moonslav59]

I think we look better than 2024, but better than a .500 team means what?

As always, we have too many "ifs" and not enough sure bet stars or even plus players.

We have too many players with a major flaw, like good hit/bad D, Great D/bad bat or injury issues- some have 2 such flaws.

Duran- the only player we have that is good+ on O and D (add baserunning as a ++)

Devers: Great bat- horrible D

Casas: real good bat- horrible D

Story- real good D- questionable bat and major injury concerns

Abreu- sucks vs LHPs, but a plus bat and GG D in RF.

Yoshida- sucks on D, little power but decent bat.

Rafaela- bat is highly questionable, to be polite, but great OF D and decent 2B D.

Wong- plus bat for a catcher, but near worst on D.

DHam- decent bat v RHPs, decent D at 2B, sucks vs RHPs and at SS D.

Grissom- needs to prove his bat and D. May be a 2B option v LHPs.

Refsnyder- a great batter vs LHPs, but sucks vs RHPs and sucks on D

Romy- looks ok on D and may be ok on O.

Narvaez- looks to be a plus on catcher D, but his O needs to be proven.

Anthony, Campbell & Mayer all are unproven but hold a lot of promise on O and D. None are below avg fielders, so the potential for 2-3 all-around good players making an impact in 2025 is real.

I know many here hate platoons, but we may be forced into a few:

DH: Yoshida v R and ref v L.

2B: DHam v R/ Grissom v L until Campbell gets a look.

CF/RF: Abreu v R in RF, Anthony v L in RF and Anthony in CF v R with Rafaela in CF v L (We could also play Duran in LF v R and Ref v L, with Duran in CF v L. That would bench Rafaela as the max utility guy for the OF and middle IF.)

C: Wong may start most games with Narvaez coming in for D, late in games, but the risk of injury may force some sort of platoon or match-up by SP'er (caddy method.)

The combination values of the platooned positions show some decent promise, in case Anthony and Campbell don't win a position, outright as a FT'er.

 

 

[mvp 78]

23 hours ago, Caleb Kohn said:

Add a Right-Handed Bat

This one is quite simple. The Red Sox lost Tyler O’Neill, whose 31 homers led the team and whose 2.5 fWAR were fourth among the team’s position players. They haven’t added anyone who can step up and replace his production.

The Red Sox need some thump from the right side of the plate. Not only does the ballpark favor right-handed batters, but six of the nine projected starters are left-handed, as are two of the team’s Big Three prospects.

 

I don't believe a RHB is really all that necessary with Story coming back and Campbell being added into the mix. Also, Devers and Casas don't have platoon issues. 

Furthermore, here are the park factors for Fenway:

RHB: 104 park factor, 108 runs

LHB: 110 park factor, 121 runs

Fenway favors left handed batters!

[mvp 78]

21 hours ago, harmony said:

 

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

About where they were at the end of last season. Seems fair.

[mvp 78]

23 hours ago, Caleb Kohn said:

The Catching Situation

While this may not be an immediate need, it is going to be one by the end of the year. Connor Wong took some large strides forward with the bat in 2024, but he was the recipient of quite a bit of batted ball luck. More importantly, his defense has ranked toward at the bottom of the league in 2024. Both his blocking and framing hurt his pitchers. If this team has aspirations of contending for the division, they’ll need more. By trading Kyle Teel for Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox turned the catcher of the future in to the ace of today. While that need was definitely more pressing, not being able to get the trade done with our surplus of young outfielders or middle infielders creates a large lack of depth.

The free agent market held a couple good catchers and many solid ones, but the Red Sox eschewed free agency entirely. They gave up their top-ranked pitching prospect Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz for Carlos Narváez, a passable catcher who ranked fourth on the Yankees’ depth chart. This was a real area of need, which meant that it was a real area where the team could make a big improvement, and they decided not to do so.

 

SoxProspects had 11 other pitching prospects ahead of Rodriguez at the time of the trade. 

[Bellhorn04]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe a RHB is really all that necessary with Story coming back and Campbell being added into the mix. Also, Devers and Casas don't have platoon issues. 

Furthermore, here are the park factors for Fenway:

RHB: 104 park factor, 108 runs

LHB: 110 park factor, 121 runs

Fenway favors left handed batters!

True, but we do play in other parks, and our RH hitting has a chance to be outright pitiful, unless Campbell really rocks it.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True, but we do play in other parks, and our RH hitting has a chance to be outright pitiful, unless Campbell really rocks it.

Last year, of Tyler O'Neill's 473 PA's, only 156 were against LHP. Almost 2/3's of his PA's were against RHP where he had a 693 OPS. Forgive me if I don't get too worked up over it. 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True, but we do play in other parks, and our RH hitting has a chance to be outright pitiful, unless Campbell really rocks it.

The whole problem with the “we didn’t replace Tyler O’Neill” argument made above is that while O’Neill crushed LHP, he was actually fairly ineffective vs RHP.

If the Sox need a RHH, they should consider a platoon for the still-untraded and likely opening day RF Wilyer Abreu.  Players like Randal Grichuk and Ramon Laureano make sense here, as both can hit LHP and actually play RF.  Refsnyder is a terrible defensive OF whose primary role should be limited to weak side platoon DH with the also still untraded and likely opening day starter Masataka Yoshida…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

The whole problem with the “we didn’t replace Tyler O’Neill” argument made above is that while O’Neill crushed LHP, he was actually fairly ineffective vs RHP.

If the Sox need a RHH, they should consider a platoon for the still-untraded and likely opening day RF Wilyer Abreu.  Players like Randal Grichuk and Ramon Laureano make sense here, as both can hit LHP and actually play RF.  Refsnyder is a terrible defensive OF whose primary role should be limited to weak side platoon DH with the also still untraced and likely opening day starter Masataka Yoshida…

Having that many platoon options for guys that can only play DH/OF seems like a big drain on the bench IMO. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

The whole problem with the “we didn’t replace Tyler O’Neill” argument made above is that while O’Neill crushed LHP, he was actually fairly ineffective vs RHP.

OK.  But to simplify matters and take laterality out of it, O'Neill had an .847 OPS and 132 OPS+, both #2 on the team, and he gone.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Having that many platoon options for guys that can only play DH/OF seems like a big drain on the bench IMO. 

Good thing we have a starting CF that can play everywhere else…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Good thing we have a starting CF that can play everywhere else…

Jarren Duran? 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK.  But to simplify matters and take laterality out of it, O'Neill had an .847 OPS and 132 OPS+, both #2 on the team, and he gone.

Oh, but he only OPS'd 624 in AUG and 774 in Sept. He couldn't possibly be good going forward! 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Jarren Duran? 

Is he the starting CF?  If so, then putting Rafaela on the bench just makes two platoons more possible.  Although if Rafaela is on the bench, he likely platoons with Abreu in RF, negating the need for Grichuk or Laureano in the first place.

Of course, that begs the question - who’s in LF?

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh, but he only OPS'd 624 in AUG and 774 in Sept. He couldn't possibly be good going forward! 

Well played, but still, the more I think about it, the more I think it's kind of funny we're brushing off the loss of O'Neill.  Our offense wasn't very good, it was horrible late in the season even with Casas and Story back, we subtracted our #2 OPS guy and added nothing...where the heck is the improvement going to come from?

It's all on the kids, like I say.  

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Well played, but still, the more I think about it, the more I think it's kind of funny we're brushing off the loss of O'Neill.  Our offense wasn't very good, it was horrible late in the season even with Casas and Story back, we subtracted our #2 OPS guy and added nothing...where the heck is the improvement going to come from?

It's all on the kids, like I say.  

They acquired Duvall at the end of January. There's 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I think there's time for the roster to shake out a bit. If we follow the rules set by this post and there aren't any more adds, I'm not sure I'm super concerned. I'd be mostly concerned about the catching situation honestly. 

[notin]

My lineup at this point would be

C -Murphy (acquired for Story)

1b -Casas

2b - Grissom

3b - Devers

SS - Mayer.  But the Sox could handle signing Ha-Seoung Kim here if necessary.

LF - Duran

CF - Rafaela

RF - Abreu / Grichuk or Laureano

DH - Yoshida / Refsnyder

BN: Wong, Hamilton

 

If Atlanta is just being foolish, Story resumes SS and Wong starts at catcher (ugh) with Narvaez replacing him on the bench…

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They acquired Duvall at the end of January. There's 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I think there's time for the roster to shake out a bit. If we follow the rules set by this post and there aren't any more adds, I'm not sure I'm super concerned. I'd be mostly concerned about the catching situation honestly. 

There's not that much left in the free agent hitter aisle that makes sense as an acquisition.

My confidence in this FO doing the things that need to be done is shattered, obviously.  

  

   

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Is he the starting CF?  If so, then putting Rafaela on the bench just makes two platoons more possible.  Although if Rafaela is on the bench, he likely platoons with Abreu in RF, negating the need for Grichuk or Laureano in the first place.

Of course, that begs the question - who’s in LF?

Grichuk is not a good OFer. He hits LHP well, but that's what Ref does. Laureano is a better fielder, but isn't a great platoon guy IMO. 

Once Anthony is added, one of these guys is going to get dropped from the roster. I think there's value in keeping Abreu around long term. I think I'd probably not add anyone and just know that Anthony is going to get a spot either on Opening Day or in June for Super Two status. 

Masa being DH only really makes a mess of this whole situation.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

My lineup at this point would be

C -Murphy (acquired for Story)

1b -Casas

2b - Grissom

3b - Devers

SS - Mayer.  But the Sox could handle signing Ha-Seoung Kim here if necessary.

LF - Duran

CF - Rafaela

RF - Abreu / Grichuk or Laureano

DH - Yoshida / Refsnyder

BN: Wong, Hamilton

 

If Atlanta is just being foolish, Story resumes SS and Wong starts at catcher (ugh) with Narvaez replacing him on the bench…

You'd have Mayer skip AAA after his injury issues, but start Campbell and Anthony in AAA this year? 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's not that much left in the free agent hitter aisle that makes sense as an acquisition.

My confidence in this FO doing the things that need to be done is shattered, obviously.  

Saving CBT room for extensions and a reliever maybe? That's my only guess.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Saving CBT room for extensions and a reliever maybe? That's my only guess.

If they don't sign a half-decent reliever with some of that cash, it'll be malfeasance of the highest order...again. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Is he the starting CF?  If so, then putting Rafaela on the bench just makes two platoons more possible.  Although if Rafaela is on the bench, he likely platoons with Abreu in RF, negating the need for Grichuk or Laureano in the first place.

Of course, that begs the question - who’s in LF?

Yo-Yo-Yo!

[notin]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Grichuk is not a good OFer. He hits LHP well, but that's what Ref does. Laureano is a better fielder, but isn't a great platoon guy IMO. 

Once Anthony is added, one of these guys is going to get dropped from the roster. I think there's value in keeping Abreu around long term. I think I'd probably not add anyone and just know that Anthony is going to get a spot either on Opening Day or in June for Super Two status. 

Masa being DH only really makes a mess of this whole situation.

Kids or die, huh?

Grichuk is a better OF than Refsnyder, which is all he needs here.  Laureano has a .802 career OPS vs LHP and had a .869 last year.  He hits LHP.  I prefer him over Gruchuk, but to date, Breslow has gone the other direction.

None of this blocks Anthony.  All of it gives them some depth in case things go wrong.  The real cost is someone like Shugart, Murphy, Romy or Sogard would need to be DFAd.  Or they could skip to the inevitable and DFA Justin Wilson already…