Taking the Cheap Way Hardly Ever Works

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

f*** Arenado.  He doesn’t make sense unless the Sox can unload Yoshida.  And still not much even then, as his low -.700s OPS could probably also be replaced by Grissom.  Bregman makes more sense except that Cora sees him as a 2b solution for some reason.

I still think Abreu gets moved before April.  Hopefully a good defensive catcher is part of the return.  Pitt certainly could use Abreu and has catchers to spare, but unless they renew their lust for Henry Davis, I don’t see them sending Boston help behind the dish.  Joey Bart doesn’t float anyone’s boat.

Arenado at under $10M on this scenario, makes some sense, and for JH, that's 1/3 the cost of Bregman and 1/2 the years.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it's all good. i've said several times that i wish i had your optimism. 

every team makes bad decisions and the Sox are no different, but probably my biggest problem with Henry is not spending money that he clearly has to spend. if they were small market and didn't have it to spend then it would be different.

We had a lot of holes to fill after 2019. In large part to the cuts in spending, we had to spread the money out to fill all the needs with barely replacement level or better players.

What gets me now is that I feel like we had a pretty deep roster- not great, but good enough. We did not need to fill 6-15 slots on the 40 and 5-8 on the 26, we really needed 3 key holes filled and maybe 2 minor ones. 

Major: Ace, Closer, RHB

Minor: Catcher, more pitching

We've been spending money, every year, usually barely replacing what goes out the door, each winter, if that, but spending $50M+ should get you 3 slots filled and maybe the 2 minor ones, too, but we keep spending the money on just 1, and more recently some 2 year deals. Hell, we even made the biggest trade since Sale and got only a 2 year guy.

Not spending as much is huge. I've never argued against how much that sucks, and JH should be roasted for it. He did show some minor blips of going back to spending in cycles, but not near what he did, before, namely Story then Yoshida.

We chose to spend: that's what gets me, It's how we spend it that irks the hell out of me, and it's not changing. I fully understand the lesson of David Price. Really, I get it, but when you need an ace, and you spend on Richards, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Gio, Sandoval and Buehler, you are spending a lot of money, and getting nowhere fast.

The money on new starting pitching has increased, pretty consistently since 2018, but the template remains the same: pillow contracts (Buehler & Wacha), aging once good/great pitchers (Kluber, Richards, Hill) or pitchers who were very good, but not recently (Giolito.) We never sign a really good SP'er with a durable history and recent success. Price was the last one. We traded for Sale and Nate (and Pom & Wright), and extended/re-signed both, but when it comes to adding new SP'ers, our failure is why we have sucked since 2018. We can argue about the Sale and Nate extensions, but here are the SP'ers we added via free agency and their cost:

2 year spending, not counting 2020, although it should count, as it was the year the team was blown to pieces.

AAV

Zero in 2018 & 2019 combined. (I'm not counting Nate as a FA- only newbies)

$6^M in 2020 (Perez)

$32M in '21 and '22 (10M Richards,  $7M Wacha, $5M Perez, Hill and Paxton)

$32M ($19.25M Gio, $10M Kluber, $5M Paxton, $1.25 Chase Anderson, $1M Criswell)

$47.4M for 2025 alone ($20.05 Buehler, $18.25 Gio, $9.1M Sandoval)

If you combine 2024 and 2025, you see a big jump, higher AAV per pitcher signed,  but basically the same types of signings:

20.05 Buehler

$38.5M/2 Golito

18.25M/2 Sandoval

That's a lot of AAV money, that if spent on 1 or 2 longer term contracts would give us more projected stability, but we don't do that, anymore.

$76.8M spend on 3 pitchers and maybe 4 years of control (if you count Sandoval as 1 year) That comes to $38M a year or about $26M per pitcher and year.

We better hope we strike gold with Buehler or Sandoval, because we've lost the Lottery, every year. (The Wacha-Hill-Paxton year was a push, but Paxton's value was in the following season.)

 

 

 

[FredLynn]

On 12/25/2024 at 7:37 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

As for 2025, the Buehler signing has re-triggered my optimism about the team's direction.  This was a non-punt move, and to me it validates that Sandoval was also a non-punt move.  And I think some more moves are coming.  

  

Yeah. Lets see what Henry can drag out of the bottom of the barrel on the cheap. This team isn't going to be relevant until he opens his purse. You know it. I know it.

Get some more clothespins because there's going to be another stinky year ahead.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Arenado at under $10M on this scenario, makes some sense, and for JH, that's 1/3 the cost of Bregman and 1/2 the years.

Yes but it’s like skipping the earlier, more productive years of Bregman and fast forwarding right to y he decline…

[Randy Red Sox]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup.

Well, one main reason to try and dump most of Yoshida's contract was to save a few dollars and maybe stay under the tax line. That's not an issue, this winter, so we might as well give him a shot to get healthy and increase his trade value (or value to us.)

We aren't winning, this year, so I'd rather keep Campbell and Anthony in AAA, at least until another year of service is gained... maybe even 2, if we wait until 2026 has started. None of our big 3 prospects need to be added to the 40, this year.

To me, we are wasting one of Crochet's 2 years of control. Why trade 3 top 8 prospects for a 2 year player, if we plan on continuing the rebuild?

There is no cohesive plan with these guys. It all seems knee-jerk and reactionary with no proactive actions.

What's left on the plate, this winter? No great fits, and the ones that might be (Scott or Hoffman,) I doubt we are even considering making an offer.

I guess a Bregman signing might get my pulse back up, but he was never high on my list. To top it off, these clowns were talking about signing Alex to play 2B NOT 3B! The absurdity never ends with these guys.

don't fret it Moon.  there is no chance they sign Bregman unless of course he takes a 1 yr deal

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Abbey Road.

Who’s Next?!!!

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes but it’s like skipping the earlier, more productive years of Bregman and fast forwarding right to y he decline…

Bregman is already past his "earlier productive years."

.902 OPS '16-'20 (142 OPS+)

.795 OPS '21-'24 (122 OPS+)

Also .795 OPS from '20-'24 and .911 (144) '16-'19

 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman is already past his "earlier productive years."

.902 OPS '16-'20 (142 OPS+)

.795 OPS '21-'24 (122 OPS+)

Also .795 OPS from '20-'24 and .911 (144) '16-'19

 

Then why get either? 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

don't fret it Moon.  there is no chance they sign Bregman unless of course he takes a 1 yr deal

I'm back to giving up hope on us spending, and on top of that, I'm not thrilled with anything that's leftover.

I'd say Scott, but no way we even make him an offer. JH has spent on Chapman and Hendriks, which is essentially over $20M for just one 2025's pen. (We could likely have gotten Scott for $16M AAV.)

Another prime example of what you get for one and done's vs better players on longer deals.

[Bellhorn04]

What about Kirby Yates?  I'm surprised he hasn't signed yet.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Then why get either? 

Because there is nothing else left that we can get to improve the team.

Bregman at .795 and plus defense would be a good addition, even if at a massive cost.

Arenado at .725 and near GG defense would be a good addition and a reasonable cost, if my suggested trade, involving Rafaela and $10M a year paid by STL is accepted. He'd cost less than $10M AAV x 3 years. Despite his bat being in serious decline, and his age pretty much ruling out some great offensive resurgence, the big plus on 3B defense would help all our pitchers do better. We might even see 1B defense improve with Devers playing 80-90 games there.

I can see why nobody gets a thrill out of either of these guys. Bregman was far down on my list of who to spend large and long on. Arenado may not really fix our RHB need, as he has sucked vs LHPs for 2 straight years.

Maybe going after Santander or Profar, tehn trading Abreu and or Rafaela for pitching and or catching is a better idea. 

There really aren't many great ideas left, even if we do spend. (BIG IF, there!)

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What about Kirby Yates?  I'm surprised he hasn't signed yet.  

He fits the 1 year plan, very well.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What about Kirby Yates?  I'm surprised he hasn't signed yet.  

In reality, the best fits for the Sox on the FA market are Scott, Hoffman and maybe Yates or Estevez, but I'm not sure Brez is serious about any of them.

Santander and Profar might fix the RHB issue, but also means trading away or GG RF'er, so Anthony is not blocked.

Bregman fixes the 3B defense issue and halfway fixes the RHB issue, but Cora wants him at 2B, so I don't even want to let him screw that one up.

Flaherty or Pivetta are attempts to upgrade the 4-5 slot in the rotation and not worth the cost.

Alonso and a Casas trade for pitching might work. It fixes the RHB issue and improves the staff, but it ain't happening.

I can't see any other FA options that move the needle, greatly. Did I miss anybody?

Trades just weaken another area, even if just depth.

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What about Kirby Yates?  I'm surprised he hasn't signed yet.  

Or Kyle Finnegan.  Who non-tenders an All Star?!?

[Randy Red Sox]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In reality, the best fits for the Sox on the FA market are Scott, Hoffman and maybe Yates or Estevez, but I'm not sure Brez is serious about any of them.

Santander and Profar might fix the RHB issue, but also means trading away or GG RF'er, so Anthony is not blocked.

Bregman fixes the 3B defense issue and halfway fixes the RHB issue, but Cora wants him at 2B, so I don't even want to let him screw that one up.

Flaherty or Pivetta are attempts to upgrade the 4-5 slot in the rotation and not worth the cost.

Alonso and a Casas trade for pitching might work. It fixes the RHB issue and improves the staff, but it ain't happening.

I can't see any other FA options that move the needle, greatly. Did I miss anybody?

Trades just weaken another area, even if just depth.

the rotation is pretty much set.  they still need a b/u C and possibly another reliever.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In reality, the best fits for the Sox on the FA market are Scott, Hoffman and maybe Yates or Estevez, but I'm not sure Brez is serious about any of them.

Santander and Profar might fix the RHB issue, but also means trading away or GG RF'er, so Anthony is not blocked.

Bregman fixes the 3B defense issue and halfway fixes the RHB issue, but Cora wants him at 2B, so I don't even want to let him screw that one up.

Flaherty or Pivetta are attempts to upgrade the 4-5 slot in the rotation and not worth the cost.

Alonso and a Casas trade for pitching might work. It fixes the RHB issue and improves the staff, but it ain't happening.

I can't see any other FA options that move the needle, greatly. Did I miss anybody?

Trades just weaken another area, even if just depth.

I like Profar as a LF.  He did crush LHP last year to the tune of a .865 OPS (I think).  He occasionally plays a recent LF and has the ability to get on base.  And only wants a 3 year deal.

But if the Sox just want to put Anthony in LF and get a platoon partner for Abreu, Ramon Laureano is a good plan.

I don’t like the free agent catchers since Jansen and Kelly both signed.  Sox NEED a good defensive catcher…

[notin]

Just now, Randy Red Sox said:

the rotation is pretty much set.  they still need a b/u C and possibly another reliever.

Hoping they get a starting catcher, not a backup…

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the rotation is pretty much set.  they still need a b/u C and possibly another reliever.

While we do look "all set," except for catcher and RP, there is still some "upgrading" that is needed, IMO, especially thinking RHB and a top RP or SP, not just "pen help."

I'm sure they are set with the SP'ers we have.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Who’s Next?!!!

I hear your Who, and raise you Led Zeppelin II.

[Thunder]

What are we doing at catcher? Wong is the only one in the entire organization with major league catching experience. I can't be the only one concerned about that

[notin]

Just now, Thunder said:

What are we doing at catcher? Wong is the only one in the entire organization with major league catching experience. I can't be the only one concerned about that

I raise questions daily…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I hear your Who, and raise you Led Zeppelin II.

Call with Dark Side of the Moon…

[Thunder]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I raise questions daily…

Sorry, I only log in periodically during the winter, and don't bother reading through any posts more than a day old

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Hoping they get a starting catcher, not a backup…

that is what they need but is very unlikely to happen

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

While we do look "all set," except for catcher and RP, there is still some "upgrading" that is needed, IMO, especially thinking RHB and a top RP or SP, not just "pen help."

I'm sure they are set with the SP'ers we have.

RHB is likely to be Randal Grichuk on guess what?---a 1 yr deal

[dgalehouse]

I think Breslow has done better than he is being given credit for. Crochet and Buehler have the potential to be excellent starters. Possibly Giolito as well.  Chapman has been one of the premier closers for years, 335 saves. Hendriks has also been an effective closer. I like what I have seen of Guerrero. I would like to see at least one more quality reliever.  Another right hand bat would be welcome, but I don't see it as a necessity. And I don't  sweat the need for a second string , defensive minded catcher. You can always find one of those. Finally, Breslow has traded some prospects, but has been able to hold onto the best ones. I think he has done better than we expected. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Thunder said:

What are we doing at catcher? Wong is the only one in the entire organization with major league catching experience. I can't be the only one concerned about that

Good to see you, again, and congrats on UConn's bowl win.

Carlos Narvaez played 6 MLB games, last year and is ML ready. He's plus on D. He showed some HR power and OBP skills in the minors.

Seby Zavala has played parts of 5 seasons in MLB with over 185 games played and over 550 PAs.

I'd like to see a trade for someone like Sean Murphy, but what would we have to give up? (notin suggested Story.)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

RHB is likely to be Randal Grichuk on guess what?---a 1 yr deal

He might be the most likely to be signed player left on the market.

Maybe Estevez or Kittredge are tied for the most likely RP'er we sign, but we could also trade Abreu for a RP'er.

Speaking of "taking the cheap way," how about this:

Sign Grichuk and Estevez.

Trade: Abreu for Victor Caratini C (1 yr at $6M) and Luis Garcia RHP (2 arbs remaining)

Garcia before the injury ('21-'22) 26-16  3.60 (113 ERA+ in 56 GS & 131 IP. 1.15 WHIP.

Caratini had a 113 OPS+ in 2024 at age 30. Top half in throwing, framing and blocking in '24.

Is this enough to call the winter barely successful?

 

 

[Nick]

Despite being $31M under the cap, I believe you won't see another big ticket signing this winter.

Perhaps we'll add another bullpen arm on the cheap but our pitching staff is set. It's better than the one we had last year.

Let's evaluate FA Bregman signing. 

Bres appears to be in no rush to move Devers off 3B. This almost is a duplicate of pussyfooting around NOT asking Xander to get his ass off ss for the good of the team. We want better defense but we seem to be very weak on the corners. 

It would be asinine to sign a player on the decline (Bregman) and ask him to play a position he's never played before. Just keep in mind that year ago Bres thought so highly of Atlanta's Vaughn Grissom that we PAID the Braves to take Sale off of our hands in exchange for Vaughn. Please let that sink in. I still believe Bres has not totally given up on Grissom, chalking up last year to injuries. 

The bigger issue is we may have someone that can fill 2B better than anyone on our 40 man roster, Kristian Campbell. Hell, he's already better than Bregman. Surely plays better defense.

I doubt that we'll trade Casas when his value is at lowest. But he's still under team control for 4 more years. Let him play out this year and increase his trade value. Ultimately he probably has to go because of Devers. I doubt we pay Devers $30M just to DH. 

Unless of course we decided to roll the dice in 2025 and we trade for Vladimir (who is in his last year before free agency) for Casas, Abreu and handful of prospects.

Adding Vladimir would be a calculated risk maybe worth taking if we're going for it. As of today, that maybe the only ONE move we can make to get us to the World Series.

Solid starting pitching to go with a formidable offense with Vladimir, Devers, Duran, Story, Yoshida along with Anthony and Campbell.

Quit nickel and diming us John. Do you ever dream big anymore? Or do you want your legacy, and this will be your only legacy, to be the cheap ass that owned the Red Sox?

 

[moonslav59]

Nick. Bregman is a pretty good defensive player and may be better or equal to Campbell at 2B. Maybe not.

Bregman has done worse in his last 4-5 seasons over his first 3-4 seasons, but he's been pretty steady of the last few years, with slight decline in the last 2 years..

OPS+: 117>113>134>122>118

fWAR: 2.1>5.4>4.5>4.1

3B DRS: 2> -4> 5> 6 (OAA: 0>4>1>6)