Article: BREAKING: Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler To One-Year Contract

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

ADD: Has there been any indication of where Giolito is at for opening day?

I'd have to imagine he'd be working out at full strength NOW if that was going to happen. 

They are both rehabbing in Ft Myers right now and have had no setbacks YET. I'd still wait and see what it looks like in ST. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Team option, that is.  Could come into play, you're right.  More fun stuff to keep an eye on.  🙂

There is a 19M mutual option as well. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

There is a 19M mutual option as well. 

"Mutual options" are where my brain starts to melt.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok, so past injury and rehabbing aren't exactly the same thing.  Also, I wonder what percentage of MLB pitchers today have had some kind of past procedure, and I'd love to see that stat compared to 20/40/60 years ago. 

I'd also like to take a list of all MLB players 28 and over who have never had an injury and see how many get injured in 2025.

It sucks, and obviously you can't dismiss it, but the reality is if you're signing a MLB pitcher in todays game that odds that they have had or will have some kind of surgery is as high as it's ever been. 

There's no such thing as safe pitching.

When Koufax quit at age 30 because doctors told him he could be crippled for life, he was only the most dominant pitcher in baseball history.

If they had Tommy John Surgery in 1965, Sandy could've rocked for another decade.

But Tommy was only 22 in '65, with all of his ligaments still in their original places.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

When Koufax quit at age 30 because doctors told him he could be crippled for life, he was only the most dominant pitcher in baseball history.

If they had Tommy John Surgery in 1965, Sandy could've rocked for another decade.

But Tommy was only 22 in '65, with all of his ligaments still in their original places.

Some cursory internet research indicates uncertainty over whether surgery would have been the answer for Koufax's severe arthritis.

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There is a 19M mutual option as well. 

That's if he pitches over 140 innings, given that he's coming back from injury I think it's more likely the team option is picked up than the mutual.  Mutual options are almost never exercised. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Some cursory internet research indicates uncertainty over whether surgery would have been the answer for Koufax's severe arthritis.

Without googling, maybe even some minor arthroscopy could've extended his career.

I'm just talking from amateur experience, where they use laser beams to disintegrate calcified scar tissue to make space (and alleviate bone-on-bone pain) for a better range of motion.

I had my shoulder scoped in 1989; when I had my elbow scoped 20 years later, the doc said they now had 20 more instruments of different sizes and powers to use than in the late-80s.

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Mutual options" are where my brain starts to melt.

They are typically meaningless as they are rarely taken. 

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's if he pitches over 140 innings, given that he's coming back from injury I think it's more likely the team option is picked up than the mutual.  Mutual options are almost never exercised. 

He's a guy who averaged 175 per year prior to surgery. I think him falling further than 150 if he starts on Opening Day would be a huge surprise. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a guy who averaged 175 per year prior to surgery. I think him falling further than 150 if he starts on Opening Day would be a huge surprise. 

Not really, it's his first year back from surgery, guys typically don't ramp right back up to the same workload their first years back. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Not really, it's his first year back from surgery, guys typically don't ramp right back up to the same workload their first years back. 

He had the internal brace procedure and not full TJS so we'll see. 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He had the internal brace procedure and not full TJS so we'll see. 

Admittedly I do not know much between the two surgery other than internal brace has a quicker recovery time.  But I do know with TJ pitchers workloads are typically reduced their first year back. 

Stricter pitch counts, total innings, pitchers per inning etc. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Admittedly I do not know much between the two surgery other than internal brace has a quicker recovery time.  But I do know with TJ pitchers workloads are typically reduced their first year back. 

Examples needed.  We were talking about John Lackey yesterday.  He threw about 215 innings in 2013 including the postseason.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Admittedly I do not know much between the two surgery other than internal brace has a quicker recovery time.  But I do know with TJ pitchers workloads are typically reduced their first year back. 

Stricter pitch counts, total innings, pitchers per inning etc. 

It's kind of all over the place when you go pitcher to pitcher. Some guys are down in innings and some guys are up. It all depends on where they are in their rehab most likely. If Gio felt like he could have pitched in September, maybe he's in line for more innings this year? 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Examples needed.  We were talking about John Lackey yesterday.  He threw about 215 innings in 2013 including the postseason.

So many pitchers are included in the sample that there's enough noise to find pitchers with decreases innings, increased innings, increased velo/stuff, decreased velo/stuff. I don't think there is a one size fits all rehab or return from TJS. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's kind of all over the place when you go pitcher to pitcher. Some guys are down in innings and some guys are up. It all depends on where they are in their rehab most likely. If Gio felt like he could have pitched in September, maybe he's in line for more innings this year? 

Perhaps, we certainly shouldn't complain if we get one really good year out of him. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Examples needed.  We were talking about John Lackey yesterday.  He threw about 215 innings in 2013 including the postseason.

I think more than one would be needed.  Lackey also had surgery in the 2011 offseason and missed all of 2012.  He had about 1/2 more to recover.  Of course, TJ takes longer to recover as well. 

 

It might make sense to compare guys who have had the internal brace surgery, but in general guys pitch less innings and are restricted their first years back.  I'm sure there are case by case basis where people deviate away from the mean. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Regarding Giolito, a full recovery isn't so much when he returns or even how effective he is, but whether there are any setbacks -- especially the first year back.

Therefore, Houck, Bello and Crawford are the three sure things for the starting rotation. Gio, Crochet, Buehler, Fulmer, and maybe Sandoval could provide serious depth or serious doubt.

As far as durability right now, there are even less questions about the elbow macaroni group than Fitts and Criswell.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure how accurate injury reports are over the winter, as I doubt there is much updating going on. Here is what I found on the ESPN and CBS reports:

ESPN & CBS agree on all
8/1 Sandoval (I'm counting on 4/1/26)

6/1 Chris Murphy (not really in our '25 plans, anyway)

5/1 Whitlock (hope it's not June or July)

2/1 Giolito, Hendriks, Yoshida & Perales

Only the Whitlock situation seems very concerning. Without a true closer, we could use all the good set-up men we can get.

 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Regarding Giolito, a full recovery isn't so much when he returns or even how effective he is, but whether there are any setbacks -- especially the first year back.

Therefore, Houck, Bello and Crawford are the three sure things for the starting rotation. Gio, Crochet, Buehler, Fulmer, and maybe Sandoval could provide serious depth or serious doubt.

As far as durability right now, there are even less questions about the elbow macaroni group than Fitts and Criswell.

Sure things? in todays game anything but.  For all we know the "sure thing" is ticking time bomb with the mileage piling up. 

[Hugh2]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure how accurate injury reports are over the winter, as I doubt there is much updating going on. Here is what I found on the ESPN and CBS reports:

ESPN & CBS agree on all
8/1 Sandoval (I'm counting on 4/1/26)

6/1 Chris Murphy (not really in our '25 plans, anyway)

5/1 Whitlock (hope it's not June or July)

2/1 Giolito, Hendriks, Yoshida & Perales

Only the Whitlock situation seems very concerning. Without a true closer, we could use all the good set-up men we can get.

 

I figure he probably goes to the pen, but we shouldn't fully rule Whitlock out as a starter, especially if by the end of April we have some under performance or we lose a guy or two to injury. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I figure he probably goes to the pen, but we shouldn't fully rule Whitlock out as a starter, especially if by the end of April we have some under performance or we lose a guy or two to injury. 

IMO, our pen is still a weak area, and Whitlock could be a key part of improving it, significantly.

Right now, Bello and Kutter will be our 5-6 starters, so two guys would have to be out to get to our 7th starter. I'd much rather give the pitcher doing the best from this group, the first shot: Criswell, Fulmer, Fitts, Priester & Dobbins. (Only Fulmer would need to be added to the 40.)  Chances are, 2-3 of these guys will be doing well, if and when a need arises.

Keep the pen as strong as possible.

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, our pen is still a weak area, and Whitlock could be a key part of improving it, significantly.

Right now, Bello and Kutter will be our 5-6 starters, so two guys would have to be out to get to our 7th starter. I'd much rather give the pitcher doing the best from this group, the first shot: Criswell, Fulmer, Fitts, Priester & Dobbins. (Only Fulmer would need to be added to the 40.)  Chances are, 2-3 of these guys will be doing well, if and when a need arises.

Keep the pen as strong as possible.

Right now on paper, it certainly looks like Whitlock is going to the pen.  But lets say that Giolito has a setback into the summer and another starter goes down. We are left with 4 of (Crochet/Bello/Crawford/Houck/Buehler) and sure it could be Criswell but it was only him last year when Whitlock wasn't there. 

 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Right now on paper, it certainly looks like Whitlock is going to the pen.  But lets say that Giolito has a setback into the summer and another starter goes down. We are left with 4 of (Crochet/Bello/Crawford/Houck/Buehler) and sure it could be Criswell but it was only him last year when Whitlock wasn't there. 

 

We used 13 different starters, last year, including 7 starts by our pen (3 Bernardino, 3 Kelly and 1 Chase Anderson.) Hopefully, that will not happen,  at all in 2015, but sometimes an emergency situation forces it.

We basically used 10 starters, and many felt Houck was going to be the 6th starter, if Gio was not hurt.

33 Crawford, 30 Houck & Bello, 26 Pivetta, 18 Criswell, 6 Wink, 4 Whitlock (before he got hurt) and 4 by Fitts, 3 by Paxton (after a trade) and 1 by Priester (post trade.)

IMO, we have 11-12 SP'ers I'd use before Whitlock, and I might try never to start Whitlock, again, unless as an opener type starter.

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Gio, Bello, Crawford

AAA: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and non 40 man guys Fulmer, Gambrell and Drohan. (AA: Sandlin, Early & Wehunt)

I really think the plan should be to work Whitlock back to health in the pen, only.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We used 13 different starters, last year, including 7 starts by our pen (3 Bernardino, 3 Kelly and 1 Chase Anderson.) Hopefully, that will not happen,  at all in 2015, but sometimes an emergency situation forces it.

We basically used 10 starters, and many felt Houck was going to be the 6th starter, if Gio was not hurt.

33 Crawford, 30 Houck & Bello, 26 Pivetta, 18 Criswell, 6 Wink, 4 Whitlock (before he got hurt) and 4 by Fitts, 3 by Paxton (after a trade) and 1 by Priester (post trade.)

IMO, we have 11-12 SP'ers I'd use before Whitlock, and I might try never to start Whitlock, again, unless as an opener type starter.

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Gio, Bello, Crawford

AAA: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and non 40 man guys Fulmer, Gambrell and Drohan. (AA: Sandlin, Early & Wehunt)

I really think the plan should be to work Whitlock back to health in the pen, only.

There's a very big difference between calling a guy up to spot start, and then putting a guy into the rotation because you expect someone to be out for 1/2 the year.  The majority of those guys after your 1-5 are of the spot start variety.  If someone goes down for a prolong period of time, things change.  Maybe that guy is Cooper Criswell right now IDK, all I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if Whitlock is in the starting rotation conversation.

Doesn't mean I don't think he will be or should be in the pen, but he looked really good there briefly last year and if he's healthy in May and a starter goes down then (assuming they are stretching him out in April) Whitlock might get the nod before a guy like Winc does. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

There's a very big difference between calling a guy up to spot start, and then putting a guy into the rotation because you expect someone to be out for 1/2 the year.  The majority of those guys after your 1-5 are of the spot start variety.  If someone goes down for a prolong period of time, things change.  Maybe that guy is Cooper Criswell right now IDK, all I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if Whitlock is in the starting rotation conversation.

Doesn't mean I don't think he will be or should be in the pen, but he looked really good there briefly last year and if he's healthy in May and a starter goes down then (assuming they are stretching him out in April) Whitlock might get the nod before a guy like Winc does. 

I don't disagree with any of this, and a clear sign might be how we see them rehabbing him in April or May. We seem to be planning on "stretching out" Fulmer, but not being on the 40 complicates things. Assuming Sandoval is placed on the 60 Day IL, day one, we could add Fulmer, at that time. I think we currently view Criswell as the #7, and the rest do look highly questionable as someone you'd pencil in as a half season starter. We do have the chance of a Sandoval 2025 appearance, so maybe the 7th or 8th starter would not be needed to finish out the season.

Maybe I'm higher on Fitts, Priester and Dobbins than I should be, but I like the odds on 2 of those 3 to look good enough to get a call to be more than just a spot starter.

In 2024, we ended up needing 2 SP'ers to be more than just a spot starter: Houck & Criswell. Both worked out way better than anyone could have imagined, and we cannot count on that success again. I agree that Whitlock could become a consideration, but I think we should strain to give others a chance, before him, assuming they are looking good.

It's interesting to note that out of Criswell and Fitts, only Criswell did better in AAA than in MLB.

AAA/MLB ERA

1.40/4.08 Criswell

4.55/1.74 Fitts (one could wonder why he got a look)

Priester was 4.63 in AAA and 5.44 in MLB. I'd say these 3 would have to be looking pretty bad to not get the call before a healthy Whitlock. However, if they do decide to bring him back "stretched out," then that could easily change.

Dobbins is a total wild card. I could see Whitlock being chosen ahead of him.

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Doesn't mean I don't think he will be or should be in the pen, but he looked really good there briefly last year and if he's healthy in May and a starter goes down then (assuming they are stretching him out in April) Whitlock might get the nod before a guy like Winc does. 

With Whitlock's ongoing health issues, there's no way I'd put him back in the rotation. His "stuff" is rotation material and it tantalizes you into putting him into the rotation. His body just doesn't allow it. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Whitlock's ongoing health issues, there's no way I'd put him back in the rotation. His "stuff" is rotation material and it tantalizes you into putting him into the rotation. His body just doesn't allow it. 

I'm 100% for Whitlock in the pen, and it's probably much more likely that's where he returns.  But his body not allowing it just isn't that great of an argument. (or at least if we are worried about his elbow that is).

While starting pitchers do get hurt with more frequency than relief pitchers, there's zero more risk of injury to the elbow starting rather than relief pitching.  Or I suppose another way to put it, moving to the pen does not reduce the risk of injury to Whitlocks elbow one bit.  But perhaps his elbow is now fine, and the pen role helps him stave off other injuries. 

Again, I'll reiterate I'm fine with Whitlock in the pen, it very well may be where he is best suited and I see it as likely.  I just wouldn't be completely surprised if he comes to spring training and they're stretching him out as a starter.  

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree with any of this, and a clear sign might be how we see them rehabbing him in April or May. We seem to be planning on "stretching out" Fulmer, but not being on the 40 complicates things. Assuming Sandoval is placed on the 60 Day IL, day one, we could add Fulmer, at that time. I think we currently view Criswell as the #7, and the rest do look highly questionable as someone you'd pencil in as a half season starter. We do have the chance of a Sandoval 2025 appearance, so maybe the 7th or 8th starter would not be needed to finish out the season.

Maybe I'm higher on Fitts, Priester and Dobbins than I should be, but I like the odds on 2 of those 3 to look good enough to get a call to be more than just a spot starter.

In 2024, we ended up needing 2 SP'ers to be more than just a spot starter: Houck & Criswell. Both worked out way better than anyone could have imagined, and we cannot count on that success again. I agree that Whitlock could become a consideration, but I think we should strain to give others a chance, before him, assuming they are looking good.

It's interesting to note that out of Criswell and Fitts, only Criswell did better in AAA than in MLB.

AAA/MLB ERA

1.40/4.08 Criswell

4.55/1.74 Fitts (one could wonder why he got a look)

Priester was 4.63 in AAA and 5.44 in MLB. I'd say these 3 would have to be looking pretty bad to not get the call before a healthy Whitlock. However, if they do decide to bring him back "stretched out," then that could easily change.

Dobbins is a total wild card. I could see Whitlock being chosen ahead of him.

 

I'm not sure where Fulmer stands, but stretching him out may only put him into the Chase Anderson role IMO. BOS has six starters right now. WOO has seven starters if you include Fulmer and Drohan. 

It's hard to pick and choose between Fitts, Dobbins and Priester since they are still in development and Dobbins currently has considerable helium and a new pitch. I think I'd give any of them a shot in BOS before Fulmer. Criswell is probably the first man up after whoever of Crawford/Bello gets put into the pen. Not going to get hot and bothered over a 5 game sample from Criswell in AAA though. 

[Hugh2]

I think people should be mentally prepared for that.