Article: Red Sox Sign Rehabbing Patrick Sandoval To Two-Year Contract

[mvp 78]

I feel nothing anymore. 

[notin]

51 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I still disagree on that, of course.  The last two champions relied heavily on free agents (Freeman,Ohtani, Yamamoto, Seager, Semien, Eovaldi).

With Fried and Burnes of course you're paying heavily for their track records.  Houck and Bello don't really have track records yet.  

Long term deals in Free agency only work if you’re signing future Hall of Famers (or players close to that level).  Freeman, Betts, Scherzer, Ohtani and maybe even Seager are all good candidates.  Otherwise you’re just signing an aging player to wind down his days.  Is Burnes a future Hall of Famer, or at least close? He’s 30 and in 4 yrs as a starter has been worth 16.5 bWAR.  He might be able to post another 30ish bWAR in the next 7 years, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he didn’t. 
 

Plenty of teams have gone as big as LA with free agency and been complete flops, too.  In fact, it’s probably the more likely outcome.

 

Also Yamamoto is a different case, as he wasn’t as old as most free agents.  Thats a big factor.

 

So Will Burnes be another Scherzer? Or another Price?  It costs about a quarter of a billion non-refundable US dollars to find out.  If he is, then whoever signs him reaps huge benefits.  But if he isn’t, that type of deal can keep a team non-competitive for nearly a decade.   And maybe longer…

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So Will Burnes be another Scherzer? Or another Price?  It costs about a quarter of a billion non-refundable US dollars to find out.  If he is, then whoever signs him reaps huge benefits.  But if he isn’t, that type of deal can keep a team non-competitive for nearly a decade.   And maybe longer…

Seems a bit hyperbolic to me.  It would have to be a very poor or badly-run team to be set back more than a decade by one bad signing.

 

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems a bit hyperbolic to me.  It would have to be a very poor or badly-run team to be set back more than a decade by one bad signing.

 

$30+ mill for 7-8 years for a pitcher who can’t pitch, plus it can cost you rising star players that departure in free agency because you can’t afford the extensions. Plus not being able to afford a good replacement .It can hold a team back.

If folks Yoshida’s remaining $55.8mill over 3 years are detrimental, what’s the overall effect of paying one ineffective player $250mill over 8 years? Think of a Giolito contract, but four times longer at 1.5 times the rate.  If you think of Giolito as $38mill for one year as bad, what did you think of $116 mill for Sale for less than a year? And how did the Sox recoup those IP they didn’t get from Sale? Or Price?

Again, if that player - let’s call him “Corbin” works out - the team does well and Corbin makes his case for Cooperstown.  But if he flops right away, then what? Hope?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I still disagree on that, of course.  The last two champions relied heavily on free agents (Freeman,Ohtani, Yamamoto, Seager, Semien, Eovaldi).

With Fried and Burnes of course you're paying heavily for their track records.  Houck and Bello don't really have track records yet.  

Plus, you can't just add a Houck or Bello without drafting them 5-8 years ago and waiting for them to mature.

We need an arm, now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Burnes and Fried are certainly upgrades, but over the next few years are they better investments than Tanner Houck?  Last year, Fried was worth 3.5 bWAR, Burnes was worth 3.4 bWAR, and Houck was worth 3.5 bWAR.

Over the next 7 years, who will have the most bWAR? Max Fried? Corbin Burnes? Or Brayan Bello?

Derek Lowe.

Don't worry, with this Sandoval signing, it's very possible there will soon be a flurry of moves in Boston (nothing that actually accumulates, just flurries). 

Breslow's phone has been flashing in his pants like a pocket full of fireflies (accompanied by a group of Assistant VPs in an offkey cover: "We built the wall, we built the pyramids!"

The calls are from agents for post-op pitchers booked for the next six months with physical therapists, massage tables and personal trainers -- who were all just waiting for Sandoval to set the market for damaged goods. 

 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Derek Lowe.

Don't worry, with this Sandoval signing, it's very possible there will soon be a flurry of moves in Boston (nothing that actually accumulates, just flurries). 

Breslow's phone has been flashing in his pants like a pocket full of fireflies (accompanied by a group of Assistant VPs in an offkey cover: "We built the wall, we built the pyramids!"

The calls are from agents for post-op pitchers booked for the next six months with physical therapists, massage tables and personal trainers -- who were all just waiting for Sandoval to set the market for damaged goods. 

 

Flurries with no accumulation is the perfect metaphor that is sure to become an extended one.

[notin]

So the Sox unloaded Cam Booser to the White Sox for some 18yo Venezuelañ kid named Yhoiker Fajardo.

 

I assume this was done to open up a roster spot for Sandoval and not some other forthcoming move…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

So the Sox unloaded Cam Booser to the White Sox for some 18yo Venezuelañ kid named Yhoiker Fajardo.

 

I assume this was done to open up a roster spot for Sandoval and not some other forthcoming move…

That has to be it. Plus, the only thing that kept Booser on the 40 was the shortage of LHPs in the pen. We added Chapman and Wilson, still have Bernardino and are going to see Whitlock, who kills lefties, back in the pen.

(Whitlock career OPS Against: .695 v R/ ,689 v L and .251 BA vs .236)

[Behindenemylines]

The Sandoval signing only works if he can come back healthy and be above average starter for the Sox. It didn't work with the Paxon signing, and the jury is still out on Giolito. I understand the thought process of buying low with the hope of high returns, but it is no sure thing. SANDOVAL IS YOUNGER THEN Paxon so it may work.

[Hugh2]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We do have a record of "jumping" on players we like and overpaying.

Yoshida and Story come to mind. Chapman was not even listed on MLBTR's top 50 FA list, which bottoms out at $8M/1, and we signed him at over $10M/1.

Maybe someone else was involved, but I haven't heard of anyone interested in him. We can't assume we won a serious bidding war.

I would argue they didn’t overpay for Story but rather he got market value.  
 

the fact that he’s been injured and underperformed might make it easy in hindsight to believe it was an overpay, because it certainly turned out that way.

yoshida on the other hand clearly seems like a gross overpay.  And im not sure why a bunch of people weren’t fired over it.

[Hugh2]

PSA

Can we please stop throwing Giolito in the same camp as Paxton and Sandoval? 
Lucas was healthy when he signed and then got hurt.  It’s not an accurate comparison.anyone you sign can get hurt, it’s not the same market and structure when going out and signing someone who is already rehabbing.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

PSA

Can we please stop throwing Giolito in the same camp as Paxton and Sandoval? 
Lucas was healthy when he signed and then got hurt.  It’s not an accurate comparison.anyone you sign can get hurt, it’s not the same market and structure when going out and signing someone who is already rehabbing.

You're mostly right.

However, you could say Giolito was a reclamation project because he was so horrible for the last 2 months of 2023.  It wasn't what you'd call a really committed signing.  Plus it had an opt-out after 1 year if Giolito did well.

So all in all it's probably fair to lump these signings together as "shopping in the markdown section".

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, notin said:

$30+ mill for 7-8 years for a pitcher who can’t pitch, plus it can cost you rising star players that departure in free agency because you can’t afford the extensions. Plus not being able to afford a good replacement .It can hold a team back.

If folks Yoshida’s remaining $55.8mill over 3 years are detrimental, what’s the overall effect of paying one ineffective player $250mill over 8 years? Think of a Giolito contract, but four times longer at 1.5 times the rate.  If you think of Giolito as $38mill for one year as bad, what did you think of $116 mill for Sale for less than a year? And how did the Sox recoup those IP they didn’t get from Sale? Or Price?

Again, if that player - let’s call him “Corbin” works out - the team does well and Corbin makes his case for Cooperstown.  But if he flops right away, then what? Hope?

All you can really do is eat the loss and move on.

David Price was instrumental in the 2018 title.  The whole objective of playing is to win the title.  So I never regret that signing for an instant.  Nor do I regret the Sale extension.  These things happen when you're trying to win.

In spite of the so-called disasters of Price and Sale, the 2021 Sox made it to the ALCS.  Because they still had some really good players left from 2018-2019, and because Chaim Bloom had a very good year as CBO.  

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

PSA

Can we please stop throwing Giolito in the same camp as Paxton and Sandoval? 
Lucas was healthy when he signed and then got hurt.  It’s not an accurate comparison.anyone you sign can get hurt, it’s not the same market and structure when going out and signing someone who is already rehabbing.

I'll never ever believe that Giolito was a healthy horse when signed by Boston. 

He went from being an All-Star starter who earned Cy Young votes for three straight seasons to a guy who suddenly had a borderline 5 ERA for three different clubs, all who gave up on him in his twenties.

Put it this way: a stud professional pitcher who was that good in his mid-20s doesn't all of a sudden forget how to pitch when he hits his still-under 30 prime.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I would argue they didn’t overpay for Story but rather he got market value.  
 

the fact that he’s been injured and underperformed might make it easy in hindsight to believe it was an overpay, because it certainly turned out that way.

yoshida on the other hand clearly seems like a gross overpay.  And im not sure why a bunch of people weren’t fired over it.

It’s arguable they overpaid for Story, but there are two clear sides.  What’s inarguable is that they “jumped” on him and didn’t do their due diligence.  A couple days ago on this forum I said a lot of people view signings they don’t like as the result of laziness or sloppiness by the front office, strongly implying if these people put in the work, things would work out better.  Now I do not know everything that does into signing an MLB free agent, but I am far more than 100% confident in believing that process is more thorough and involved than most realize (myself includes)..  We are talking in many cases about nine figure transactions, but want to believe they’re being done apathetically, quite often to justify a choice in player that we didn’t agree with…

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'll never ever believe that Giolito was a healthy horse when signed by Boston. 

He went from being an All-Star starter who earned Cy Young votes for three straight seasons to a guy who suddenly had a borderline 5 ERA for three different clubs, all who gave up on him in his twenties.

Put it this way: a stud professional pitcher who was that good in his mid-20s doesn't all of a sudden forget how to pitch when he hits his still-under 30 prime.

It would hardly be surprising if his rapid drop in performance followed by TJ surgery were both connected events.  There are precedents, including current Sox minor leaguer Michael Fulmer, who just fell apart for no apparent reason while pitching out of the Cubs’ bullpen, and then had his second TJ.

(Not sure why, after two TJs, Breslow is contemplating a return to the rotation for Fulmer.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All you can really do is eat the loss and move on.

David Price was instrumental in the 2018 title.  The whole objective of playing is to win the title.  So I never regret that signing for an instant.  Nor do I regret the Sale extension.  These things happen when you're trying to win.

In spite of the so-called disasters of Price and Sale, the 2021 Sox made it to the ALCS.  Because they still had some really good players left from 2018-2019, and because Chaim Bloom had a very good year as CBO.  

 

I don’t think titles justify every move.  Trading Bagwell for Andersen was never going to be a good move, regardless of the final outcome that season…

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think titles justify every move.  Trading Bagwell for Andersen was never going to be a good move, regardless of the final outcome that season…

Agree with the first sentence, but needless to say that was a totally different kind of transaction from signing a free agent like David Price, with the track record he had.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I would argue they didn’t overpay for Story but rather he got market value.  
 

the fact that he’s been injured and underperformed might make it easy in hindsight to believe it was an overpay, because it certainly turned out that way.

yoshida on the other hand clearly seems like a gross overpay.  And im not sure why a bunch of people weren’t fired over it.

The Story signing was not much of an overpay. You are right. I guess I was thinking more that it seemed we identified a need (Bogey about to depart,) and I'm not sure how many others were even bidding nearly that high. Some other SSs got some big paydays earlier in the signing period, yes, it did not look like a gross overpay, but he did have an injury issue and some concerning home-away numbers that seemed to bother other teams more than our guys who wanted him more than others.

I'm not speaking to the "overpay" due to hindsight. The one injury was about expected, but I'm talking about times, where we saw certain players and made a choice to not be outbid, and some seemed like nobody was close to our offers. Then, there are so many other players, where we make grossly lower-than-market value offers and claim "We wanted ____."

There seems to be a weird disconnect going on. Maybe, if can simply be explained as poor value analysis.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Story signing was not much of an overpay. You are right. I guess I was thinking more that it seemed we identified a need (Bogey about to depart,) and I'm not sure how many others were even bidding nearly that high. Some other SSs got some big paydays earlier in the signing period, yes, it did not look like a gross overpay, but he did have an injury issue and some concerning home-away numbers that seemed to bother other teams more than our guys who wanted him more than others.

I'm not speaking to the "overpay" due to hindsight. The one injury was about expected, but I'm talking about times, where we saw certain players and made a choice to not be outbid, and some seemed like nobody was close to our offers. Then, there are so many other players, where we make grossly lower-than-market value offers and claim "We wanted ____."

There seems to be a weird disconnect going on. Maybe, if can simply be explained as poor value analysis.

I hate to say it but my growing belief is that this current iteration of our front office has nothing in the way of a coherent plan.  So far our offseason has basically consisted of acquiring 4 left-handed pitchers.  Maybe that was the secret mission - stock up on lefty pitchers and forget about everything else...

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I hate to say it but my growing belief is that this current iteration of our front office has nothing in the way of a coherent plan.  So far our offseason has basically consisted of acquiring 4 left-handed pitchers.  Maybe that was the secret mission - stock up on lefty pitchers and forget about everything else...

But hey, we traded away Booser! Yipee!

I'm feeling more and more pessimistic with everyday that passes, which is pretty low, considering I started the winter with zero expectations, but some hopes. There was a peak of hope with the Soto bidding, and the day we traded for Crochet and Narvaez was nice, but that's been it.

Chapman as a decent signing, but I knew getting him meant no Scott and likely no Hoffman, either.

Wilson was just depth, IMO, but one that needs to be on the 26, so I'd rather have signed minor league depth as good as he is.

I liked the low key Narvaez deal, but that's not something to get jacked up about.

The Crochet deal addressed a major area of need. It was a necessary overpay, but I wish we didn't have to included our one prospect who played a position of current high need: catching. I like Anthony and Campbell way more, and am glad we did not included them, instead, but the Crochet deal also created another need, so that taints it a little bit. (I'm not sure CWS wanted Mayer, of if we'd have subbed him for Teel, anyway, and we may have a need at SS, if Story keeps spending time on the IL.)

All-in-all, this winter is looking like a near complete failure. We addressed the TOTR and LH'd RP needs, but created a greater need at C than we had before, and we still need 1 really good pitcher (TOTR or Closer) or two, and a power RHB. There are many weeks left to make some moves and dozens of top 50 FAs left to sign. There are rumors of players available in trade who could fill our needs. Maybe the plan is to swoop in on teh last minute bargain basement deals, but I doubt we see as many as in recent years, because so many teams feel like they have a shot at making the playoffs. There may be less than a handful of teams that are in true rebuild mode. One could even argue there are just two: CWS & MIA. Even the A's have been mandated to spend.

We wait too long, and we will be screwed, again.

There was a lot of backtracking, after last winter's "full throttle" blooper, but I have not heard much, this winter after the comments about the CBT line not being an issue. We have a ton of money to spend to get to the line, but I have a very strong feeling we never get close to it.

We'll hear the excuses, later.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

But hey, we traded away Booser! Yipee!

I'm feeling more and more pessimistic with everyday that passes, which is pretty low, considering I started the winter with zero expectations, but some hopes. There was a peak of hope with the Soto bidding, and the day we traded for Crochet and Narvaez was nice, but that's been it.

Chapman as a decent signing, but I knew getting him meant no Scott and likely no Hoffman, either.

Wilson was just depth, IMO, but one that needs to be on the 26, so I'd rather have signed minor league depth as good as he is.

I liked the low key Narvaez deal, but that's not something to get jacked up about.

The Crochet deal addressed a major area of need. It was a necessary overpay, but I wish we didn't have to included our one prospect who played a position of current high need: catching. I like Anthony and Campbell way more, and am glad we did not included them, instead, but the Crochet deal also created another need, so that taints it a little bit. (I'm not sure CWS wanted Mayer, of if we'd have subbed him for Teel, anyway, and we may have a need at SS, if Story keeps spending time on the IL.)

All-in-all, this winter is looking like a near complete failure. We addressed the TOTR and LH'd RP needs, but created a greater need at C than we had before, and we still need 1 really good pitcher (TOTR or Closer) or two, and a power RHB. There are many weeks left to make some moves and dozens of top 50 FAs left to sign. There are rumors of players available in trade who could fill our needs. Maybe the plan is to swoop in on teh last minute bargain basement deals, but I doubt we see as many as in recent years, because so many teams feel like they have a shot at making the playoffs. There may be less than a handful of teams that are in true rebuild mode. One could even argue there are just two: CWS & MIA. Even the A's have been mandated to spend.

We wait too long, and we will be screwed, again.

There was a lot of backtracking, after last winter's "full throttle" blooper, but I have not heard much, this winter after the comments about the CBT line not being an issue. We have a ton of money to spend to get to the line, but I have a very strong feeling we never get close to it.

We'll hear the excuses, later.

 

CBT: Chronic Bull Talkers

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There was a lot of backtracking, after last winter's "full throttle" blooper, but I have not heard much, this winter after the comments about the CBT line not being an issue. We have a ton of money to spend to get to the line, but I have a very strong feeling we never get close to it.

We'll hear the excuses, later.

"We tried our asses off this offseason.  I think everyone saw how many guys we were connected to.  We just didn't line up the way we wanted to line up.  But don't think for a minute this doesn't mean we're not going to keep trying to bring the kind of team that Red Sox fans expect."

Take it from there...   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I hate to say it but my growing belief is that this current iteration of our front office has nothing in the way of a coherent plan.  So far our offseason has basically consisted of acquiring 4 left-handed pitchers.  

Oh. My. G-- quick! Send this to the front office! They probably have no idea... but we know Brez is all about balance, so someone better tell him Corbin Burnes is a righty!!!!!

[notin]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I hate to say it but my growing belief is that this current iteration of our front office has nothing in the way of a coherent plan.  So far our offseason has basically consisted of acquiring 4 left-handed pitchers.  Maybe that was the secret mission - stock up on lefty pitchers and forget about everything else...

It’s also only December 21st, and it’s certainly not uncommon for moves to come later.

As of now, only 17 of the MLBTR Top 50 have signed, including only 4 of the top 11.  It’s not like everyone else in MLB is out there lapping us.

Also it’s very important to use only broad categories so as to make sure people don’t go thinking there is a difference between Garrett Crochet and Justin Wilson.  Don’t let them fool you!!

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Oh. My. G-- quick! Send this to the front office! They probably have no idea... but we know Brez is all about balance, so someone better tell him Corbin Burnes is a righty!!!!!

See, in one of the Red Sox Operations committee meetings someone said something about balancing the L-R thing.  He was talking about offense, but it kind of got lost in translation.  Easy to understand how these things happen.  They'll learn from their mistakes as they go along. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

It’s also only December 21st, and it’s certainly not uncommon for moves to come later.

As of now, only 17 of the MLBTR Top 50 have signed, including only 4 of the top 11.  It’s not like everyone else in MLB is out there lapping us…

Unfortunately this post feels like deja vu all over again.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I hate to say it but my growing belief is that this current iteration of our front office has nothing in the way of a coherent plan.  So far our offseason has basically consisted of acquiring 4 left-handed pitchers.  Maybe that was the secret mission - stock up on lefty pitchers and forget about everything else...

Last year our LHP depth chart was pathetic!!! 
their choice of help in the bullpen is very scary, but at least they are building up the depth 

[Larry Cook]

Have we fired the idiot who thought sims and Garcia would be quality trade deadline acquisitions?????