2025 Prospects

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/video/top-int-l-prospects-soto-ss

https://www.mlb.com/video/top-int-l-prospect-harold-rivas-of

[Hugh2]

WE GOT SOTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

WE GOT SOTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hell yeah brother! 

 

[moonslav59]

Won't be long before someone complains a bout no pitchers.

[Hugh2]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Won't be long before someone complains a bout no pitchers.

They did sign 55 pitchers the past two IFA signing periods.....should have been 60

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

They did sign 55 pitchers the past two IFA signing periods.....should have been 60

Top pitcher signings by bonus money:

2024: 1 in the top 7 (over $175K) and 3 in the top 18 (all over $50K)

2023: 0 in top 3, but 3 in top 7 ($125K+) and 7 in top 14 ($53K+)

2023-2024: 2 in top 6 (12 players)

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com...

Carlos Narvaez, acquired from the Yankees for Elmer Rodriguez last Wednesday, has spent the winter with the Cardenales de Lara. Through 23 games, the 26-year-old catcher is slashing .377/.456/.662 with seven doubles, five home runs, 18 RBIs, 15 runs scored, five stolen bases, nine walks, and 13 strikeouts over 90 plate appearances.

They slotted Narvaez #28, behind Jordan and ahead of Wehunt. He is the second highest ranked catcher in the system, behind Jo Garcia and ahead of Brannon.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

soxprospects.com...

Carlos Narvaez, acquired from the Yankees for Elmer Rodriguez last Wednesday, has spent the winter with the Cardenales de Lara. Through 23 games, the 26-year-old catcher is slashing .377/.456/.662 with seven doubles, five home runs, 18 RBIs, 15 runs scored, five stolen bases, nine walks, and 13 strikeouts over 90 plate appearances.

They slotted Narvaez #28, behind Jordan and ahead of Wehunt. He is the second highest ranked catcher in the system, behind Jo Garcia and ahead of Brannon.

Putting him behind Nelly Taylor, Blaze Jordan and Hayden Mullins is wild to me. Those guys may never make the bigs. I like Nelly, but he needs to start showing something with the bat to have more value than a defensive third string catcher who OPS'd 782 in AAA last year. They definitely undervalue certain players that have MLB profiles over guys with higher ceilings that are most likely not going to get there. 

Would I trade Blaze for another Narvaez? Yes.

Trade Penrod? Maybe!

Castro? Maybe! 

[moonslav59]

Most sites have Dorian Soto a top 10 signing, so this would be good news.

Speaking of IFAs, here is a short list of recent ones:

'17 Bello & Rafaela

'18 Sena

'19 Perales, Jh Garcia, Monegro, Castro

'21 Bleis & Paez

'22 Jo Garcia, Yuten (Yoshida)

'23 Arias & Cespedes

'24 D Reyes, Ju Gonzalez, Asencio, Brito...

[mvp 78]

Not to rundown SoxProspects too much, but they have a tendency to really pushdown certain prospects that have MLB tools and a clear path the MLB playing time. 

A prime example: Wilyer Abreu

12/1/22 ranked 29th (had 834 OPS with two AA teams)

4/5/23 ranked 24th (moved up based on prospects leaving over the offseason like Ward, Seabold, etc.)

7/6/23 ranked 20th (OPS above 800 with strong defensive profile, 960 OPS vs RHP)

11/22/23 ranked 8th (after MLB promotion)

It took them waiting to see him continue his success at the MLB level before becoming a believer. He was a strong side platoon guy with above average defense. I don't know what he was outside the top 20 for so long. Why have Mata, Paulino, Bonaci or even Valdez above him. Valdez had no defensive position. It was clear he was going to be a platoon DH or just a horrible 2B. Harder to judge him against pitcher evaluations, but he was waayyy underrated for a long while. 

 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Most sites have Dorian Soto a top 10 signing, so this would be good news.

Speaking of IFAs, here is a short list of recent ones:

'17 Bello & Rafaela

'18 Sena

'19 Perales, Jh Garcia, Monegro, Castro

'21 Bleis & Paez

'22 Jo Garcia, Yuten (Yoshida)

'23 Arias & Cespedes

'24 D Reyes, Ju Gonzalez, Asencio, Brito...

Hard to judge some of the recent IFA years as the prospects haven't had enough time to develop. 

2021: Bleis/Lira/Ravelo/Paez/Sawamura B- (class lives and dies on Bleis' success)

2020: Chacon/Liu/Salazar/Jhostynxon/Castro/Perales/Monegro B+

2019: Lopez/Bryan Gonzalez/Feliz/Gabriel Jackson/Wikelman/Paulino/Bonaci/Bastardo C (a lot of names, but nothing really panned out)

2018: Daniel Flores/Diaz/Antoni Flores/Bello/Rafaela A- (could have been higher with Daniel Flores' ceiling)

2017: Velazquez - INC (team limited due to restrictions)

2016: Muzziotti/Santos/Mata/Mosqueda/Castellanos D+

 

[moonslav59]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Not to rundown SoxProspects too much, but they have a tendency to really pushdown certain prospects that have MLB tools and a clear path the MLB playing time. 

A prime example: Wilyer Abreu

12/1/22 ranked 29th (had 834 OPS with two AA teams)

4/5/23 ranked 24th (moved up based on prospects leaving over the offseason like Ward, Seabold, etc.)

7/6/23 ranked 20th (OPS above 800 with strong defensive profile, 960 OPS vs RHP)

11/22/23 ranked 8th (after MLB promotion)

It took them waiting to see him continue his success at the MLB level before becoming a believer. He was a strong side platoon guy with above average defense. I don't know what he was outside the top 20 for so long. Why have Mata, Paulino, Bonaci or even Valdez above him. Valdez had no defensive position. It was clear he was going to be a platoon DH or just a horrible 2B. Harder to judge him against pitcher evaluations, but he was waayyy underrated for a long while. 

 

I remember reading, at the time of the trade, that Abreu was the real prize, not the recent hard-hitting Valdez. They did seem to undervalue WA and overvalue EV.

Who would you say they are short-changing, now?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I remember reading, at the time of the trade, that Abreu was the real prize, not the recent hard-hitting Valdez. They did seem to undervalue WA and overvalue EV.

Who would you say they are short-changing, now?

I'll tell you after the player turns it around! 

No, I've been high on Early since he was drafted. He's now at 14th so that's fine with me. 

They went waaaay too low on Romero due to injury and had to bump him back up, but he looks ok now. 

Valera is where Perales was in his development a few years ago. They are a little light on him IMO. He'll get pushed up this season. 

Paez doesn't miss any bats and had a 1.39 HR/9 in GRE (higher than his walk rate). He's about right. I want him to be better, but his velo isn't there.

Narvaez initiated this conversation so I believe they are light on him. Maybe they just don't value a backup catcher? He was projected to have the same fWAR as Connor Wong in 2025. 

Interesting to me that they have Conrad Cason 16th and Brandon Neely 32nd. Over the short term, Neely is going to perform really well and I think Cason may take a while to develop. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'll tell you after the player turns it around! 

No, I've been high on Early since he was drafted. He's now at 14th so that's fine with me. 

They went waaaay too low on Romero due to injury and had to bump him back up, but he looks ok now. 

Valera is where Perales was in his development a few years ago. They are a little light on him IMO. He'll get pushed up this season. 

Paez doesn't miss any bats and had a 1.39 HR/9 in GRE (higher than his walk rate). He's about right. I want him to be better, but his velo isn't there.

Narvaez initiated this conversation so I believe they are light on him. Maybe they just don't value a backup catcher? He was projected to have the same fWAR as Connor Wong in 2025. 

Interesting to me that they have Conrad Cason 16th and Brandon Neely 32nd. Over the short term, Neely is going to perform really well and I think Cason may take a while to develop. 

Good stuff.

SP's had Romero as high as 8th, so maybe they were not that far off.

My ups and downs, right now, are...

I'm higher on Cespedes han most. Both he and Jh garcia are top 10.

I like Jo Garcia, too, but over a small sample size. I think D Reyes keeps moving up.

I've always felt like they had Castro too high.

I think they are so high on Cason, because of the Ohtani Effect.

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good stuff.

SP's had Romero as high as 8th, so maybe they were not that far off.

My ups and downs, right now, are...

I'm higher on Cespedes han most. Both he and Jh garcia are top 10.

I like Jo Garcia, too, but over a small sample size. I think D Reyes keeps moving up.

I've always felt like they had Castro too high.

I think they are so high on Cason, because of the Ohtani Effect.

Yeah, they were way too high on Castro. He was a guy that never really put it together on the field. At least Bleis has the five tools you can dream on to be overrated. 

Reyes is intriguing, but I want to see a guy play stateside before I really push them too high. Hard to judge him on 17 innings against a lot of guys who will never make it over here. I think he's top 20, but wouldn't strap a rocket to him yet. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, they were way too high on Castro. He was a guy that never really put it together on the field. At least Bleis has the five tools you can dream on to be overrated. 

Reyes is intriguing, but I want to see a guy play stateside before I really push them too high. Hard to judge him on 17 innings against a lot of guys who will never make it over here. I think he's top 20, but wouldn't strap a rocket to him yet. 

They still have Castro 18th. Sometimes they really stick with certain players way too long.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They still have Castro 18th. Sometimes they really stick with certain players way too long.

I'd have him in between Paez and Mullins. 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd have him in between Paez and Mullins. 

I might have Castro 28th or 29th.

[harmony]

The Red Sox placed 13th in a recent farm system ranking at Bleacher Report:

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10148856-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-the-2024-25-offseason.amp.html

 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox placed 13th in a recent farm system ranking at Bleacher Report:

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10148856-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-the-2024-25-offseason.amp.html

 

Such a great resource that if you click the top 100 prospects list that it takes you to the top 100 FA list instead. 

[Old Red]

On 12/16/2024 at 10:14 AM, Hugh2 said:

WE GOT SOTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope he’s better than Jeter.

[Hugh2]

On 12/31/2024 at 1:36 PM, Old Red said:

Hope he’s better than Jeter.

I see what you did there haha

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com's podcast spoke about the immense focus on pitching on the farm, and the fact that we traded both of our last 2 first draft picks, who were everyday players (Montgomery & Teel) for a pitcher.

They talked about all the holes in the AAA everyday roster slots, and how we've really only been adding pitchers. We did add Zavala and Eaton, but we lost Gasper & Meidroth, too.

Trading Gasper for Moran pretty much replaced Booser with an equal or better LHP who does not need to be on the 40. Booser got us a far-away pitcher ranked 35th by soxprospects.com and is projected to be in FCL. We also added Austin Adams, Jose Adames, Hobie Harris, Joe Vogatsky (for EValdez) and Noah Davis.

In theory, it seems the FO got our memo on improving the pitching throughout the whole system and using everyday prospects to "balance" things out. At the MLB level, we added Crochet, Buehler, Sandoval, Chapman, Wilson and in  a sense Giolito, Fulmer & Hendriks, while losing Pivetta, Jansen & Martin plus some scrubs. Over the 2024 season, we also added Priester for Yorke, and over the last winter: Slaten, Fitts, Weissert, Sandlin, I Campbell and others.

Later, they spoke of how little 1Bmen are valued, these days. They cited the Nate Lowe & Naylor and trades bring so little back, and Walker not getting huge money and Alonso still not signed. Keeping Casas makes too much sense, since his trade value is probably low. They wondered why SEA would say no to Casas + Yoshida for Castillo with no money, involved.

They made me more optimistic about the team's direction.

 

[mvp 78]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-americas-2025-scout-survey-evaluators-fear-games-direction-amid-doom-and-gloom-offseason/

Free BA article on an offseason scout industry survey. Many scouts are worried that baseball has leaned to far towards analytics and isn't relying on scouts anymore.

Orgs considered to be the most scout friendly:

Dodgers, Padres, Royals

Orgs considered to be unfriendly to scouts (0 scouts stated these teams were most friendly and more that 10 scouts stated these teams as being least friendly):

Guardians, O's, Red Sox

Which orgs are best at identifying talent:

Red Sox 0% 

If the Sox have a lot of financial might and scouts don't count against the CBT, it is really foolish not to spend in this area even if it's not your highest priority. Mixing scouting and analytics seems like the best bet rather than leaning solely on analytics. We'll have to see how this impacts the Sox over the next 3-5 years. 

[mvp 78]

 

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-americas-2025-scout-survey-evaluators-fear-games-direction-amid-doom-and-gloom-offseason/

Free BA article on an offseason scout industry survey. Many scouts are worried that baseball has leaned to far towards analytics and isn't relying on scouts anymore.

Orgs considered to be the most scout friendly:

Dodgers, Padres, Royals

Orgs considered to be unfriendly to scouts (0 scouts stated these teams were most friendly and more that 10 scouts stated these teams as being least friendly):

Guardians, O's, Red Sox

Which orgs are best at identifying talent:

Red Sox 0% 

If the Sox have a lot of financial might and scouts don't count against the CBT, it is really foolish not to spend in this area even if it's not your highest priority. Mixing scouting and analytics seems like the best bet rather than leaning solely on analytics. We'll have to see how this impacts the Sox over the next 3-5 years. 

The dodgers are one of if not the best run sports organization in America!!!!

not saying we should emulate them but maybe we can take away something from process 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The dodgers are one of if not the best run sports organization in America!!!!

not saying we should emulate them but maybe we can take away something from process 

I think using their financial might and combining it with a strong farm system is the only way the Sox can be sure to compete year in and year out. It's how the Dodgers have done it recently. Why not spend more to build up the org if it doesn't impact the CBT calc? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB poll results of "executives" from all 30 MLB teams shows Anthony rated the #1 prospect and best hitting prospect. 

One exec also said Campbell was the best prospect he'd ever seen. 

When a player gets a vote for "best ever", that's a guy you want on the parent club asap. Also in the conservation were names like Harper, Trout, Acuna and Witt. 

Franklin Arias was named on two list: Most Underrated Prospect and Breakout Prospect.

The Password didn't make any lists, because no one could spell his name...

[mvp 78]

Arias will need to hit outside of the FCL for me to believe. I'll remain relatively hopeful though. 

[moonslav59]

Carlos Narvaez is doing well in the Venezuela League playoffs. His team won the first 6 games, and he got on base 8 out of 17 times. (5 walks)