Hear me out: Let's acquire Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

[vjcsmoke]

He's on the last year of his deal and the Blue Jays likely don't want to let him walk for nothing.

We negotiate with them a prospect package for 25 year old Guerrero and at the same time we negotiate a new contract for him for 500m to keep him happy and locked up long term.

We then sign an Ace level free agent starting pitcher for 200m. As a result we will acquire nearly as great a hitter as Soto who is in his prime and a top of rotation pitcher.

Two starting pitchers, a 4x All-Star right-handed power hitting 1st baseman who slugged .940 last season in his prime age. That's a hell of an offseason.

Factor into this that makes Casas expendable in a trade without us regretting his loss.

Am I crazy or would this be a great use of the Red Sox money and prospects this offseason and at LEAST make us a postseason contender?

Article linked to VGJr story: https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/red-sox-land-30-million-superstar-trade-pitch-hated-division-rival-1999525

MLB Reference stats for VGJr: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrvl02.shtml

[moonslav59]

We might as well have paid Soto $800M than do this.

Just sign Teoscar and Burnes?

They'd be cheaper and we'd lose no prospects.

Plus, we already have 4-5 1B or DHs.

[Jasonbay44]

I highly doubt Toronto would trade him in division. In division trades are rare, and when they involved a young star, they are almost non existent.

Also, if they did trade for Vladdy, Casas would absolutely be sent to Toronto in the trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I love Vladdy but in general, I'm against paying first basemen huge money.

And if the Sox pursue Vlad, they should do so in 11 months and avoid giving Toronto prospects.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I highly doubt Toronto would trade him in division. In division trades are rare, and when they involved a young star, they are almost non existent.

Also, if they did trade for Vladdy, Casas would absolutely be sent to Toronto in the trade.

I think this is a myth.

For any team, you have 4 other teams in the division and 25 teams outside of it.  So trades outside are 6 times more likely, but only based on quantity of teams and not on anything inherent to divisional play.

If pressed, I can think of young stars traded within a division.  JT Realmuto, for example.  Also Matt Kemp, Mike Piazza, Cliff Lee, Jose Canseco, Gary Carter, etc. 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

I think this is a myth.

For any team, you have 4 other teams in the division and 25 teams outside of it.  So trades outside are 6 times more likely, but only based on quantity of teams and not on anything inherent to divisional play.

If pressed, I can think of young stars traded within a division.  JT Realmuto, for example.  Also Matt Kemp, Mike Piazza, Cliff Lee, Jose Canseco, Gary Carter, etc. 

 

 

I don't think it's a myth.  It might be overhyped a bit, that's all.

You don't see many impactful trades between the Red Sox and other AL East teams.  Minor ones, sure.  Unless we count the Beeks for Eovaldi trade or the Springs trade.  

[moonslav59]

Vladdy would be that big RHP we need, and his age would mean he gets a huge contract.

I'd love him in our line-up, and he's younger than Soto, but at what cost: players, prospects plus paying FA money seems unreasonable. Just wait until he's a FA. (I know, then watch Cohen outbid everyone.)

[vjcsmoke]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Vladdy would be that big RHP we need, and his age would mean he gets a huge contract.

I'd love him in our line-up, and he's younger than Soto, but at what cost: players, prospects plus paying FA money seems unreasonable. Just wait until he's a FA. (I know, then watch Cohen outbid everyone.)

He’s the big right handed bat this lineup needs for sure. My thinking on the trade is get him a year early and lock him up long term to a new contract. We know from experience Red Sox ownership when given the option of falling short in free agent bidding will do just that. Put up a false front and get outbid. Cohen’s deep pockets are another factor. If Red Sox bid 500 and he goes 550 we lose again. Just like with Soto. Apparently our offer was around 715, he went 765 and it was over.

when you say pay 800 for Soto instead do you believe the prospects to land VG Jr would be worth 300m somehow?

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

He’s the big right handed bat this lineup needs for sure. My thinking on the trade is get him a year early and lock him up long term to a new contract. We know from experience Red Sox ownership when given the option of falling short in free agent bidding will do just that. Put up a false front and get outbid. Cohen’s deep pockets are another factor. If Red Sox bid 500 and he goes 550 we lose again. Just like with Soto. Apparently our offer was around 715, he went 765 and it was over.

when you say pay 800 for Soto instead do you believe the prospects to land VG Jr would be worth 300m somehow?

1. Vlad won't take $550M, so the whole point is lost. I'd rather pay Soto $800M than Vladdy $650M to $700M in 2026.

2. He will demand a top 3 prospect or two, and two might very well be worth $200-300M or more.

3. Adding Soto to a crowded OF would force a trade like Abreu and maybe even Abreu + Rafaela for something useful, while adding a 1Bman would allow us to trade Casas. That might be about even, but now we are stuck with Devers at 3B forever, or we dump Yoshida and move Devers to DH. Maybe this comes out about even, but I don't want to have 4-5 DH/1Bmen on the 26. (Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Refsnyder and Vald.)

What do you think we'd have to give up for 1 year of Vladdy?

[mvp 78]

What's the rush? Just wait a year and get him in FA. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1. Vlad is exactly the type of star righthanded hitter in his prime the Red Sox need.

2. Vlad is exactly the type of bad first baseman the Red Sox don't need.

3. Vlad as a longterm DH? Does anyone really want a rich, young guy with past weight problems sitting around, waiting for three or four swings a night... for the next decade?

4. #s 2 and 3 are already potential reasons Boston is hesitant to move Raffy to 1B or DH this soon in his career.

[Hugh2]

On 12/15/2024 at 3:10 AM, Jasonbay44 said:

I highly doubt Toronto would trade him in division. In division trades are rare, and when they involved a young star, they are almost non existent.

Also, if they did trade for Vladdy, Casas would absolutely be sent to Toronto in the trade.

I'd rather trade Casas for pitching (not that I want to trade him) and just sign Vladdy next offseason. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the rush? Just wait a year and get him in FA. 

I don't believe this at all, sounds ridiculous but I'd imagine the argument is we trade for him now because we can extend him.  

Because somehow we wouldn't be willing to win a bid on him but yet somehow he's going to sign a lesser extension to stay here.  But yeah.....wait a year and sign him. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't believe this at all, sounds ridiculous but I'd imagine the argument is we trade for him now because we can extend him.  

Because somehow we wouldn't be willing to win a bid on him but yet somehow he's going to sign a lesser extension to stay here.  But yeah.....wait a year and sign him. 

He hates the Yankees, but our ownership also hates paying market value for players. 

I wish I could get on board with the idea. 

[vjcsmoke]

On 12/8/2024 at 10:45 PM, moonslav59 said:

I really wanted Soto, but $765M/15 is absurd money.

$51M a year.

I'm glad he's on the Mets not the Yanks, but that kinda money might have crippled the Yanks for 15 years.

Now we have the Yanks and Dodgers plus others  to battle with over Fried, Burnes, Teoscar, Bregman, Scott....

The idea would be to get the particulars of the trade outlined first and make completing it conditional on VG Jr agreeing to an extension or new contract before completing the trade. I wouldn't want to be stuck like the Yankees giving up prospects for only 1 year of a great player.

VG Jr declined a 340m dollar deal from Toronto. I think 500m should get it done.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, vjcsmoke said:

The idea would be to get the particulars of the trade outlined first and make completing it conditional on VG Jr agreeing to an extension or new contract before completing the trade. I wouldn't want to be stuck like the Yankees giving up prospects for only 1 year of a great player.

VG Jr declined a 340m dollar deal from Toronto. I think 500m should get it done.

$500/15?