Article: Should Anyone Actually Be Untouchable?

[Alex Mayes]

The word 'untouchable' gets thrown around quite a bit in discussions about high-level prospects and MLB stars. Should the Red Sox actually have a list of players they won't trade?

According to Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the Red Sox have made Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Kristian Campbell ‘untouchable.' On the surface, this makes perfect sense. Duran was the breakout star of 2024, Anthony is the top prospect in all of baseball, and after storming through the farm system, Campbell looks poised to take over second base at some point during 2025. The other two members of the Big Four, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel, have been touted as untouchable by fans across social media because of the potential they show.

But we’d be kidding ourselves if we believed that all four prospects are going to be contributors at the big league, let alone reach the All-Star potential. There’s a chance they very well could be All-Star caliber players and the Red Sox will be flush with homegrown talent to build around for years to come, but statistically speaking, the far more likely scenario is that one or two of them will pan out as every day big leaguers and only one of them will reach their full potential in Boston. If the biggest return to make the team competitive for the next few seasons comes from dealing members of the Big Four, then why not deal from your biggest strength and turn some of these blue-chip prospects into pitchers you'd like to see starting a playoff game?

It's no secret that the Red Sox need top-of-the-rotation help and could specifically use a left-handed starter. Sure, there are names like Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Sean Manaea on the free agent market (not to mention the right-handed Walker Buehler, to whom the Sox have recently been linked), but deals for those first two names are expected to get larger and larger with each passing day. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox shouldn’t be at the forefront of those conversations, but it does mean that they likely will need to turn to the trade market if they want to add more than one high-leverage arm to the starting rotation. Seattle is reportedly listening to offers for members of their starting rotation, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo being the two most talked about names. But should Seattle tell the Red Sox that Logan Gilbert or Bryce Miller could be had in a deal that revolved around Kristian Campbell, then the Red Sox would be crazy to not entertain a deal of that magnitude. Losing Campbell would sting, but there’s no doubt that the return is worth the sting, especially if Campbell doesn’t pan out at the big league level, which is a very real possibility.

Trading any of the Big Fourwill bring the critics out en masse, and that’s understandable, to a point. However, to upgrade the roster in meaningful ways means making some difficult decisions. Juan Soto picking the Mets means that the American League is wide open for the next few years and the Red Sox are on the cusp of being able to put their best roster on the field since 2018. However, the price for doing so will be high. If the return is a top-of-the-rotation, playoff-proven starter who can bring the next Commissioner’s Trophy to Boston, then the Red Sox need to consider every avenue available to them, even if that means trading some of the best prospects in baseball.

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[Bellhorn04]

"But we’d be kidding ourselves if we believed that all four prospects are going to be contributors at the big league, let alone reach the All-Star potential. There’s a chance they very well could be All-Star caliber players and the Red Sox will be flush with homegrown talent to build around for years to come, but statistically speaking, the far more likely scenario is that one or two of them will pan out as every day big leaguers and only one of them will reach their full potential in Boston. If the biggest return to make the team competitive for the next few seasons comes from dealing members of the Big Four, then why not deal from your biggest strength and turn some of these blue-chip prospects into pitchers you'd like to see starting a playoff game?"

I'm sure that statistical profile is accurate, but one question is, how do you know for sure which ones are the keepers and which are not?  If you deal the one that reaches their full potential, that's not good. 

[mvp 78]

I would say that nobody is untouchable, but there are very few trades that would be worthwhile to move Anthony or Campbell. The players that would need to be given up are unlikely to be moved by the other teams either. 

How often do you see a Mookie Betts for Aaron Judge trade or whatever? 

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"But we’d be kidding ourselves if we believed that all four prospects are going to be contributors at the big league, let alone reach the All-Star potential. There’s a chance they very well could be All-Star caliber players and the Red Sox will be flush with homegrown talent to build around for years to come, but statistically speaking, the far more likely scenario is that one or two of them will pan out as every day big leaguers and only one of them will reach their full potential in Boston. If the biggest return to make the team competitive for the next few seasons comes from dealing members of the Big Four, then why not deal from your biggest strength and turn some of these blue-chip prospects into pitchers you'd like to see starting a playoff game?"

I'm sure that statistical profile is accurate, but one question is, how do you know for sure which ones are the keepers and which are not?  If you deal the one that reaches their full potential, that's not good. 

If you’re ever playing the shell game, it turns out you really cannot say “one of those three “…

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I would say that nobody is untouchable, but there are very few trades that would be worthwhile to move Anthony or Campbell. The players that would need to be given up are unlikely to be moved by the other teams either. 

How often do you see a Mookie Betts for Aaron Judge trade or whatever? 

But sometimes a prospect’s main contribution in MLB is just playing passably for minimum wage…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I would say that nobody is untouchable, but there are very few trades that would be worthwhile to move Anthony or Campbell. The players that would need to be given up are unlikely to be moved by the other teams either. 

How often do you see a Mookie Betts for Aaron Judge trade or whatever? 

Would you trade Campbell (plus?) for Sandy Alcantara?  He can be controlled for the next 3 years for $55mill…

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

But sometimes a prospect’s main contribution in MLB is just playing passably for minimum wage…

Sometimes.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Would you trade Campbell (plus?) for Sandy Alcantara?  He can be controlled for the next 3 years for $55mill…

I have no idea what his stuff looks like after TJS, so no. 

[moonslav59]

Nobody is untouchable. I've always felt that way. Why would anyone be against trading our best player or prospect for better value?

That being said, I'd try to trade others, before these guys (in order from best to just real good)

1. Anthony

(Big Gap)

2. Campbell

(Moderate Gap)

3. Duran & Houck

As much as we need SS depth, I'd trade Mayer and hope Romero or Arias can rise quickly enough to replace Story.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody is untouchable. I've always felt that way. Why would anyone be against trading our best player or prospect for better value?

I honestly think everyone understands this.  I honestly think no one is opposed to moves that make the team better.

It's just that no one wants to trade a guy who turns out to be a superstar.  That's like the worst nightmare in baseball.

And prospects are highly unpredictable, so you're not going to know for some time if you actually made the right move or not.

[Hugh2]

I agree that I think it's generally assumed that no one is untouchable for the right price. 

I say Roman Anthony is 100% untradeable and I wouldn't even think about it.  But if the Tigers came calling and said "hey we really like Roman we will give you Skubal for him" then obviously you do a 180. 

I like to think of untouchable in terms of FIT.  You can pay for guys like Devers making $30 million a year by having guys on team control play next to them. If Prime Jason Varitek was your catcher under team control, someone like Teel becomes more tradeable, now I consider Mayer a better prospect but from that perspective in terms of needs he's more movable than Teel (although up the middle is still a big need)

The thing is, I can see a spot for all of these guys to slide into.  Mayer > Short stop, Campbell > 2nd base Anthony > RF/CF and Teel > catcher. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm sure that statistical profile is accurate, but one question is, how do you know for sure which ones are the keepers and which are not?  If you deal the one that reaches their full potential, that's not good. 

That's the kicker. Even the smartest GMs don't know for sure. But being a smart GM means you need to be right more often than wrong, expecting perfection is a fool's errand.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I have no idea what his stuff looks like after TJS, so no. 

There’s enough post TJS history out there to allow for a very safe guess.

[notin]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I honestly think everyone understands this.  I honestly think no one is opposed to moves that make the team better.

It's just that no one wants to trade a guy who turns out to be a superstar.  That's like the worst nightmare in baseball.

And prospects are highly unpredictable, so you're not going to know for some time if you actually made the right move or not.

Do you think the Cubs regret dealing Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman?

It’s one thing to deal Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields.  But sometimes trading a future star does work out anyway…

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Do you think the Cubs regret dealing Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman?

It’s one thing to deal Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields.  But sometimes trading a future star does work out anyway…

Yup. HRam & Anibal Sanchez did well for the Marlins, but getting Beckett & Lowell worked for us, too.

(MIA later traded HRam for Eovaldi, who was later traded for Phelps, who was part od a deal for Pablo Lopez, who was...)

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Do you think the Cubs regret dealing Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman?

It’s one thing to deal Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields.  But sometimes trading a future star does work out anyway…

Surgery is still surgery and even though there's a high success rate a decent amount of players never return to peak performance.  And if he does, his price tag goes through the roof, If Alcantara comes back and looks like he did in 2022 he'd be looking at $300 million plus in free agency, actually if the inflation rate for top of the market doesn't slow down in the next two years you can make an argument for contract pushing over $360 million for Alcantara

If you're trading for two years of a guy you're just going to have to pay anyways, why not just pay a guy now and save the prospects?

If the Sox aren't willing to pay the price now, when will they be? If they have no desire to pay top dollar, their best bet is keeping and developing young talent and trying to lock up their own.  Count me out. 

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Do you think the Cubs regret dealing Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman?

It’s one thing to deal Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields.  But sometimes trading a future star does work out anyway…

Torres has been a better than average player but hasn't really lived up to expectations.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Surgery is still surgery and even though there's a high success rate a decent amount of players never return to peak performance.  And if he does, his price tag goes through the roof, If Alcantara comes back and looks like he did in 2022 he'd be looking at $300 million plus in free agency, actually if the inflation rate for top of the market doesn't slow down in the next two years you can make an argument for contract pushing over $360 million for Alcantara

If you're trading for two years of a guy you're just going to have to pay anyways, why not just pay a guy now and save the prospects?

If the Sox aren't willing to pay the price now, when will they be? If they have no desire to pay top dollar, their best bet is keeping and developing young talent and trying to lock up their own.  Count me out. 

I don't disagree, but we don't have to give top everyday prospects for 1-2 years of a pitcher or 3+ years of an aging starter.

We could give several everyday prospects for a young SP'er, even if it is an "overpay."

We need to balance our strengths and weakness, somehow, someway and SOMETIME- like how about now?

We've heard Mayer's name. Casas and Abreu. Farther away guys like Cespedes, Bleis, Arias or JH Garcia. Others like Meidroth, Arias and Romero could be additions. 

In short, we can make a trade that helps fill a need for 2025 AND beyond, at the same time.

SEA traded for Castillo and extended him.

MN traded for Pablo Lopez and extended him.

Word is Cease is on the market. Crochet is out there.

Just do it! We can't play 16 vets and ML-ready prospects, at the same time.

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s enough post TJS history out there to allow for a very safe guess.

So pass then. 

[notin]

I will say that for so-called Untouchables.  Everyone agrees with the caveat about moving a player “in the right deal.”   But that’s not the same as moving an Untouchable for players that are actually available…

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Torres has been a better than average player but hasn't really lived up to expectations.

He’s been a consistent 3 bWAR player over his career…

[harmony]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Would you trade Campbell (plus?) for Sandy Alcantara?  He can be controlled for the next 3 years for $55mill…

Save the prospects in a Red Sox trade for Miami right-hander Sandy Alcantara:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179325

😃😀😃

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, harmony said:

Save the prospects in a Red Sox trade for Maimi right-hander Sandy Alcantara:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179325

😃😀😃

Did the signing of Soto raise the value of Duran, Abreu and Anthony?

LOL

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, harmony said:

Save the prospects in a Red Sox trade for Maimi right-hander Sandy Alcantara:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179325

😃😀😃

Smash.

[notin]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Surgery is still surgery and even though there's a high success rate a decent amount of players never return to peak performance.  And if he does, his price tag goes through the roof, If Alcantara comes back and looks like he did in 2022 he'd be looking at $300 million plus in free agency, actually if the inflation rate for top of the market doesn't slow down in the next two years you can make an argument for contract pushing over $360 million for Alcantara

If you're trading for two years of a guy you're just going to have to pay anyways, why not just pay a guy now and save the prospects?

If the Sox aren't willing to pay the price now, when will they be? If they have no desire to pay top dollar, their best bet is keeping and developing young talent and trying to lock up their own.  Count me out. 

This argument goes beyond Straw Man, right past Stick Man and directly to Brick Man on the Three Little Pigs scale.

Alcantara is an elite talent, but his backloaded contract is entering the two priciest years, a point where Miami quite often sells.  Arguments that they might want him to pitch to increase his value are easily offset by arguments they don’t want to risk him pitching and being ineffective or getting hurt again.  
 

Now I’m not sure he is actually available, but if he is, the post TJS surgery risk, while not non-existent, is certainly not high based on plenty of league wide data.  And said risk is probably less than the success rate of even top prospects living up to their hype.

With his third very affordable option year, Alcantara should absolutely be worth dealing even Campbell for. I would be hesitant if they insisted on Anthony, but not necessarily immediately out…

[notin]

21 minutes ago, harmony said:

Save the prospects in a Red Sox trade for Miami right-hander Sandy Alcantara:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179325

😃😀😃

Like that one?  Some of my finest BS…

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

Like that one?  Some of my finest BS…

It's a big gamble on Alcantara, but I think I'd do this. Swapping the LHB for the RHB makes sense, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

SEA traded for Castillo and extended him.

MN traded for Pablo Lopez and extended him.

Word is Cease is on the market. Crochet is out there.

Just do it! We can't play 16 vets and ML-ready prospects, at the same time.

Breslow and Bloom disagree. They insist we can play 16 vets and prospects in the same game, as long as half of them are bargain bin rehabbing reclamation relief pitchers (and don't worry about reaching the three-batter minimums; there will be plenty of at bats to go around at the salad bar manned by these soft-servers).

[notin]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's a big gamble on Alcantara, but I think I'd do this. Swapping the LHB for the RHB makes sense, too.

I think Alcantara is much less of a gamble than Burnes or Fried…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow and Bloom disagree. They insist we can play 16 vets and prospects in the same game, as long as half of them are bargain bin rehabbing reclamation relief pitchers (and don't worry about reaching the three-batter minimums; there will be plenty of at bats to go around at the salad bar manned by these soft-servers).

We do have some "bargain basement" players, but I did not include them in the 16, except maybe a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B, which I think would be decent, if we strengthened the rest of the team.

Wong

Teel

Casas

DHam

Grissom

Campbell

Story

Mayer

Devers

Meidroth

Duran

Rafaela

Abreu

Anthony

Yoshida 

Refsnyder

That's 16. Okay, Meidroth is a stretch, as would be Romy. Call it 15, or even 13-14. Either way, we have everyday players/prospects to spare and a great need with our staff and minor league pitching values.

We can afford a 3 for 1 trade and still have the everyday depth we need.

I think we all agree, we are unbalanced. Some may think we suck with pitching and are mediocre with everyday players, but even that is unbalanced.