Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[Maddie Landis]

It's great to look for surplus value, to be strategic, and to sign players who suit your roster needs. But you know what else is great? Getting the best player on the market.

 “It’s expensive to sign baseball players,” John Henry once said, much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans. Henry’s statement rings true. Free agent contract values are increasing each year. Last offseason, Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700-million contract to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which broke the previous record for the most expensive professional sports contract. Previously, Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5-million extension was the largest contract in baseball. 

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the free agent market dipped following the 2020 season. Free agents affected by the shortened pandemic season “only” inked $1.36 billion total in contracts. However, since then, the total value of free-agent contracts has risen steadily. Some players, arguably, aren’t worth their gargantuan contracts. Others are. 

Twenty-six-year-old future Hall of Famers like Juan Soto seldom enters free agency. The Athletic projects that Soto will garner a 12-year, $540-million contract. He’s worth every penny, and the Red Sox must pursue him. 

Sure, money is paramount to Soto, but winning comes in at a close second. It’s important to point out that the Red Sox are behemoths in recent World Series history. Since 2004, they have a 16-3 record in the World Series. On the other hand, the Yankees possess a 5-6 record. Sniping the Yankees' primary offseason target is a dub by itself.

The Yankees' core is not sustainable. The World Series accentuated their roster construction flaws, from their shoddy defense to their inefficiency on the basepaths. Moreover, the Yankees have the second-oldest roster in the league at an average age of 29.3. Their roster is constrained by several aging superstars in the middle of expensive, long-term contracts. Gerrit Cole (34), Carlos Rodón (31), and Giancarlo Stanton (34) are being paid at least $25 million per year until 2027 or 2028. Aaron Judge has about $280 million remaining on his contract.

As I mentioned earlier, Juan Soto is 26 years old. He’s two years younger than Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. Soto has shown that his floor is an All-Star caliber player in six MLB seasons. His ceiling is a perennial top-10 MVP candidate and Silver Slugger winner.

Soto would be “just another guy” in the crowded dugouts of the Yankees or Dodgers clubhouse, but he could be the star of the Red Sox. The Red Sox have a young homegrown core. Any egregious long-term contracts don’t saddle the organization. They have a strong farm system. Sustainable contention looms over the horizon, but they need someone to push them over from mediocrity. 

Over the past couple of seasons, it seems like the Red Sox are banking on the Big Four to impact the major-league roster immediately. Putting all their eggs in one basket is a risky move. At the very least, one of the Big Four will break out in the majors. Allocating some, not all, of their resources toward a generational talent provides them with a backup plan and insurance in case any of their prospects fail to perform in the majors. 

Opponents argue, “But Soto is a left-handed hitter! The team has too many lefties!” The roster is notably lefty-heavy, but it’s not like the Red Sox lefties can’t hit against left-handed pitching. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers hold 114 and 98 wRC+ career splits against southpaws.

Soto is frequently likened to Ted Williams for a reason. He has no trouble hitting the ball, regardless of a pitcher’s handedness. Look at his career splits against left-handed pitching. 

Career	BA	OBP	SLG	RBI	HR	K%	wRC+
vs LHP	.268	.383	.475	191	56	18.0	135

Wouldn't you like to see the second coming of Ted Williams spend the rest of his career in Fenway Park? Slotting Soto into the lineup would exacerbate the lefty-dominant nature of the lineup, but his career splits mark a substantial improvement over Ceddanne Rafaela (62 wRC+), Masataka Yoshida (84 wRC+), and Jarren Duran (88 wRC+).

It's also important to remember that injuries were part of the reason the lineup was so lefty-heavy. The holes Vaughn Grissom and Trevor Story left in the infield were filled by left-handed batters David Hamilton, Dom Smith, and Enmanuel Valdez , creating a false narrative that the lineup is too reliant on left-handed batters. It should look a little more balanced next year with (fingers crossed) healthy seasons from Trevor Story and Vaughn Grissom. 

Assuming Wilyer Abreu is traded, imagine this lineup:

1. CF Jarren Duran (L)
2. LF Juan Soto (L)
3. 3B Rafael Devers (L)
4. 1B Triston Casas (L)
5. SS Trevor Story (R)
6. DH Masataka Yoshida (L)
7. C Connor Wong (R)
8. RF Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
9. 2B Vaughn Grissom (R)

Beautiful, no? 

Along with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, Soto will exasperate opposing pitchers, driving pitch counts up and opposing managers insane.

Soto could provide some cushion for Raffy and alleviate him from the burden/expectation of carrying the team’s offense. Despite being the team’s highest-paid player and the face of the franchise, Devers is notably reserved and shies away from the media. He’s not an outspoken leader, preferring to stay quiet and let his work speak for itself. This is fine, but the Boston media is intense and passionate. Soto is a showy performer and doesn’t shy away from the spotlight. By taking center stage in the organization, he would reduce pressure from the media. 

Lefties with opposite field power can take advantage of the Green Monster and Soto is no exception. He pulled the ball more frequently while playing in Yankee Stadium last year, but he's capable of spraying the ball all over the field.

Soto would pepper Lansdowne Street with home runs. He could easily hit 50+ home runs playing 81 games at Fenway each year. Heck, he might surpass David Ortiz’s single-season record of 54 home runs.

Speaking of which, like David Ortiz, Soto is Dominican. He plays for the Dominican World Baseball team. The Red Sox have a strong history of Dominican baseball stars. Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez’s contributions to the 2004 Red Sox will never be forgotten. This past spring, the organization recently updated its Dominican Academy and played an exhibition series in Santo Domingo (Soto’s hometown). Juan Soto grew up idolizing Manny, Pedro, and Big Papi. Why not join Rafael Devers and Brayan Bello to form a new Dominican trio?

Smart investments matter for sustainable contention. You can’t put a brand-new 2025 Ferrari 812 GTS engine in a 1995 PT Cruiser and expect the car to run smoothly. You also can’t keep “fixing” glaring holes with Band-Aids and expect a winning product on the field. The Red Sox indicated they’ll stop cosplaying as a small market team and are ready to spend. Simply spending for the sake of spending isn’t sustainable. They must be cognizant of where they're allocating their resources. 

That said, the Red Sox have a list of things that need fixing in the offseason. Their outfield was a bright spot on the team and doesn’t necessarily need any additional help.  However, landing a generational talent like Soto should take precedence over their other issues, and the Red Sox must be proactive. Pursue Soto and let the rest of the roster sort itself out.

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[Bellhorn04]

I love it when the Red Sox have stars, but Soto is not a realistic target for the Red Sox.  For one thing, that 12 year/540 million projection is the most "conservative" one I've seen.  Most estimates are in the 600 to 700 million range.    

The 3 financial behemoths of the sport, the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers, are all expected to be bidders.  Cohen and Steinbrenner have already lined up their first meetings with Boras.

I simply can't see John Henry wanting to get involved in an auction that is certain to end in a historically irrational contractual commitment.

Better to dream on Anthony and Duran as stars in the outfield and keep the focus on pitching, IMHO.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I love it when the Red Sox have stars, but Soto is not a realistic target for the Red Sox.  For one thing, that 12 year/540 million projection is the most "conservative" one I've seen.  Most estimates are in the 600 to 700 million range.    

The 3 financial behemoths of the sport, the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers, are all expected to be bidders.

I simply can't see John Henry wanting to get involved in an auction that is certain to end in a historically insane contractual commitment.

 

It would also drive Cora insane to have to load up one end of the batting order with all tough lefties, and the other with weak righties. It's why he often hit Ref and Romy in the middle of the line-up last year...

But if the Sox sign Fried and Buehler, and trade for Crochet, then I'm all in on Soto playing in front of the Monster for the next decade. 

[Bellhorn04]

This is the time of year to dream, but any Sox fan who thinks Soto is a real possibility under the ownership of John Henry is so delusional that yes, I have to laugh at it (not in a mean way, though).  I'm just surprised that Sox fans can continue to be fooled after what we've seen starting with trading Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

Soto is a minus defensive player, so you know that in a hypothetical universe where he plays for the Sox, it wouldn't be that long before the suggestions to convert him to a DH start pouring in. 😄

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Soto is a minus defensive player, so you know that in a hypothetical universe where he plays for the Sox, it wouldn't be that long before the suggestions to convert him to a DH start pouring in. 😄

As long as he hits 40 homers a year and walks a million times, fans will tolerate his D, the way they did Manny's.

The young outfield core of Ceddanne, Roman and Wilyer can cover center and right -- and they're all better defenders than Johnny Damon, who the Sox won a title with, next to Manny being Manny out there.

(Duran will be dealt for a starting pitcher... and he still might, if they sign Teoscar instead of Juan).

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As long as he hits 40 homers a year and walks a million times, fans will tolerate his D, the way they did Manny's.

The young outfield core of Ceddanne, Roman and Wilyer can cover center and right -- and they're all better defenders than Johnny Damon, who the Sox won a title with, next to Manny being Manny out there.

(Duran will be dealt for a starting pitcher... and he still might, if they sign Teoscar instead of Juan).

Do you think it's a real possibility that Henry is going to duke it out with the behemoths for Soto?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Do you think it's a real possibility that Henry is going to duke it out with the behemoths for Soto?

He wouldn't pay market prices to keep the Red Sox best all-around player in modern history.

But only a few years later, he paid to keep a one-dimensional slugger.

Yet John Henry doesn't seem impulsive, like most rich men at the top of their industries used to doing whatever they want and not having to pay the consequences.

Henry remains calculated. He knows the Red Sox need talent at the top of the starting rotation, but is also surely aware the Dodgers just won the World Series using an opener and bullpen game.

If JH thinks Soto will be a better longterm business decision, he may be inclined to make the investment (instead of spending big on pitchers, whose entire careers hang by the thread of an elbow ligament). Just look at all the other sports and tangents he's spent on post-Mookie.

 

[moonslav59]

I think he gets $600M/12 or $650M/14, and I'd love to see us get him. Without acquiring pitching, too, year one would be somewhat of a waste, IMO.

The 4 straight lefties in the line-up is a concern, but with a guy like Soto, it's a happy concern.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think one of Henry's guiding principles in his ownership of the Red Sox is not to get into the kind of bidding war we're going to see here.  This should be a spectacle the likes of which we haven't seen before.  I thought we were going to see one or two of these last year with Ohtani and Moto, but the fun was short-circuited by their desires to play for the Dodgers.

I think Soto would much prefer to sit back, smile and watch the fireworks.

  

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he gets $600M/12 or $650M/14, and I'd love to see us get him. Without acquiring pitching, too, year one would be somewhat of a waste, IMO.

The 4 straight lefties in the line-up is a concern, but with a guy like Soto, it's a happy concern.

Wait, you think it's possible too?

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wait, you think it's possible too?

Less than a half of a half percent.

Did I accidently hint we might?

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Less than a half of a half percent.

Did I accidently hint we might?

"Love to see us get him" ..."happy concern".

Yes, it does sound like you're letting the dream in. 😉

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Less than a half of a half percent.

Did I accidently hint we might?

Yup, about the same chances of Brez being allowed to sign any pitcher more costly than maybe Manaea... and that even includes Buehler, who doesn't have a Qualifying Offer.

[Bellhorn04]

My call is this:

1) Yes, we will acquire a TOTR pitcher.

2) No, there will be no offer by the Red Sox to Juan Soto.  But they will probably get it out there that they're "engaged" or "checking in" on him, as they did with Yamamoto.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Love to see us get him" ..."happy concern".

Yes, it does sound like you're letting the dream in. 😉

I've never lost hope, but hope and expect are two totally different categories, to me.

I have been blind-sided, before, like the Manny signing and the Price deal.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yup, about the same chances of Brez being allowed to sign any pitcher more costly than maybe Manaea... and that even includes Buehler, who doesn't have a Qualifying Offer.

IMO, signing a pitcher who will make more than Manaea might be at 4-5%, assuming we do little else with it.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've never lost hope, but hope and expect are two totally different categories, to me.

I have been blind-sided, before, like the Manny signing and the Price deal.

Price was not at all a surprising signing IMHO.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll take it a step further and say I think chasing Soto would be a very bad idea.

We have 4 terrific prospects and they're all position players.

What we need is pitching and better defense.  Soto is nether.

Soto is looking for an AAV of about $50 million.  That would create havoc with the budget.  Soto and Devers would be taking up $80 million of it for a long time.  How are you going to do that, pay the pitchers and sign Anthony to an extension etc.?  Do you think Henry is going to morph into Cohen all of a sudden?

Gotta be realistic here. 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wait, you think it's possible too?

If the definition of "possible" means a half of a half of a percent, then I guess that would be a yes. 

I'm thinking no.

I'm not one who thinks JH will never spend large and long, again. The Devers extension started, this year. My position is that I refuse to give myself any high expectations or buy into any more shams. When I see it, I'll believe it. As for now, I'm "expecting" a budget similar to 2024's, and if I was forced to bet, I'd bet it goes down vs going up. 

However, we lose so much salary, this year, and only have three first year arbs, this winter, that the budget will allow for one max signing and still not go up. This is where I see the glimmer of a chance at one big deal, with very little supporting additions. 

If we have $50M AAV to spend, I'd rather it be spent on 2-3 players, like $25M on SP, $15M on Scott and $10M on another RP'er or a Catcher, but it it is possible we put all our eggs in one basket.

I'll be more shocked by us signing Soto than the Manny & Price signings combined, and both of those caught me by total suprises.

I'm not sure how I can explain my position any clearer than this.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2) No, there will be no offer by the Red Sox to Juan Soto.  But they will probably get it out there that they're "engaged" or "checking in" on him, as they did with Yamamoto.

So... about the same chances as actually signing Roki.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Price was not at all a surprising signing IMHO.

It was, to me. Especially when I found out it was $217M/7.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'll take it a step further and say I think chasing Soto would be a very bad idea.

We have 4 terrific prospects and they're all position players.

What we need is pitching and better defense.  Soto is nether.

Soto is looking for an AAV of about $50 million.  That would create havoc with the budget.  Soto and Devers would be taking up $80 million of it for a long time.  How are you going to do that, pay the pitchers and sign Anthony to an extension etc.?  Do you think Henry is going to morph into Cohen all of a sudden?

Gotta be realistic here. 

I think the Soto signing is about as close to impossible as anything, but I think the idea of signing him would almost certainly involve a part 2 plan of trading a top OF'er or two for a young and cheap pitcher.

[jdc69]

I can't stand Soto, standing up there, trying to intimidate the pitcher all the time. I agree we need another big bat but we should spend money on pitching, relief pitching and a right hand batter. How about Pete Alonso?

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the Soto signing is about as close to impossible as anything, but I think the idea of signing him would almost certainly involve a part 2 plan of trading a top OF'er or two for a young and cheap pitcher.

And what are we hearing about a trade for Crochet?  We're hearing you'd want to sign him to an extension ASAP.  The cheap part goes out the window pretty quick.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I can't stand Soto, standing up there, trying to intimidate the pitcher all the time. I agree we need another big bat but we should spend money on pitching, relief pitching and a right hand batter. How about Pete Alonso?

Alonso is a 1B and a DH in the making.  We already have Casas and Devers in that profile, without even bringing Yoshida into it.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And what are we hearing about a trade for Crochet?  We're hearing you'd want to sign him to an extension ASAP.  The cheap part goes out the window pretty quick.

Crochet is not a "young and cheap" trade target I would seek by trading Anthony, after a Soto signing.

Crochet is not high on my list of additions. I've suggested a few trades for him- like Abreu, DHam & Dobbins, but a Soto trade and OF trade would not be for Crochet.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Alonso is a 1B and a DH in the making.  We already have Casas and Devers in that profile, without even bringing Yoshida into it.

Agreed, and I see Teoscar in the same light, except with a loaded OF not a loaded 1B slot.

[Bellhorn04]

If you believe Anthony and Campbell are going to be elite MLB hitters, these are the guys you should be dreaming on IMHO.

I'm not trying to downplay Soto's talent.  He could be an all time elite hitter.  But the price tag will be beyond ridiculous.    

[Bellhorn04]

I think it'll come down to the Mets and the Dodgers for Soto.

The Dodgers are obviously every player's dream destination right now.  And the deal they made with Ohtani is thought to give them the cash flow relief they will need to pay Soto.

Steve Cohen is the one owner in baseball who will actually reach into his own pocket to pay the talent.  And he has an estimated net worth of 21 billion.

As for the Yanks, Soto says it was a great experience, but I suspect he might have been turned off a bit by the sourness and finger-pointing that came out of their World Series flop.