Article: The Red Sox Should Consider Trading Jarren Duran For An Ace

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kutter is a better starter than Bello. I'd send Bello to the pen if the Sox found enough starters that needed to push one of them out of the rotation. 

Close call. 

2023-2024

Bello: 58 GS, 319 IP and 101 ERA+

Craw: 56b GS, 313 IP and 104 ERA+

[moonslav59]

So, basically, quite a few posters seem okay with running back the same rotation, but subbing Gio for Pivetta and hoping Fitts or Priester plus the returning Criswell is enough depth when 1-3 of our starters get hurt.

Houck is a #2 or really good #3. Gio, Bello and Crawford are all decent #5s, with maybe #3-4 upside. Fitts, Priester and Criswell fight for the #5-6-7 slots. 

It seems some think adding a #2-3 like Nick Martinez or Flaherty is about the best we can hope for, and maybe JH will force that to be, but we don't have to be okay with running back the same rotation.

[Randy Red Sox]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kutter is a better starter than Bello. I'd send Bello to the pen if the Sox found enough starters that needed to push one of them out of the rotation. 

not a chance. Bello has a chance to be at least a #2. I like Crawford but I think a part of his success is in his delivery which looks like a bit of a quick pitch. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Close call. 

2023-2024

Bello: 58 GS, 319 IP and 101 ERA+

Craw: 56b GS, 313 IP and 104 ERA+

Crawford had 56 starts, but 64 Games as he was pushed and pulled to and from the bullpen last season which reduced the amount of innings he pitched. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

not a chance. Bello has a chance to be at least a #2. I like Crawford but I think a part of his success is in his delivery which looks like a bit of a quick pitch. 

Keep convincing yourself that. He still has an ERA in the 4's and a WHIP above 1.3. 

Kutter: 3.43 k/bb

Bello: 2.39 k/bb

[dgalehouse]

In general, you have a five man rotation. They all pitch in turn. I do not understand what is accomplished by numbering them 1-5. They are still going to pitch in turn.  Hopefully, all of them pitch well and give you a chance to win. If you have a big winner who deserves to be called an "Ace" , that is great. But saying that this guy is a number three and that guy is a number four, etc. seems like a meaningless exercise. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

In general, you have a five man rotation. They all pitch in turn. I do not understand what is accomplished by numbering them 1-5. They are still going to pitch in turn.  Hopefully, all of them pitch well and give you a chance to win. If you have a big winner who deserves to be called an "Ace" , that is great. But saying that this guy is a number three and that guy is a number four, etc. seems like a meaningless exercise. 

It's just a way of saying how good they are. If they all stay healthy, they all get 32-33 starts, so in that sense, it makes no difference what we call them, but if you have 5 starters in the bottom 20% of SP'ers, it's worse than 5 that are in the bottom 20-40% (or #4's by my reckoning) and so forth.

The middle 20% are better bets than the bottom 20 or 40%.

The top 20% have the best chance of bringing a win.

Forget the 1-2-3-4-5 labels: we need better pitching. Call them whatever you wish, but just say we need better than what we have.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crawford had 56 starts, but 64 Games as he was pushed and pulled to and from the bullpen last season which reduced the amount of innings he pitched. 

Yup. I wasn't trying to say Bello was better because he had a couple more starts and a few more IP. I was just trying to show their numbers are close.

Here is more:

Bello

Crawford: 4.31 FIP and 3.6 K:BB ('23-'24) 1.5 HR/9

Bello: 4.36 FIP and 2.6 K:BB ('23-'24) 1.2 HR/9

They are about as close to identical as can be. I can't say why I prefer Bello, but I'm not happy with any of our SP'ers, beyond Houck. We have 4 mehs and Houck.

[dgalehouse]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's just a way of saying how good they are. If they all stay healthy, they all get 32-33 starts, so in that sense, it makes no difference what we call them, but if you have 5 starters in the bottom 20% of SP'ers, it's worse than 5 that are in the bottom 20-40% (or #4's by my reckoning) and so forth.

The middle 20% are better bets than the bottom 20 or 40%.

The top 20% have the best chance of bringing a win.

Forget the 1-2-3-4-5 labels: we need better pitching. Call them whatever you wish, but just say we need better than what we have.

Sure. There is always room for improvement. But the biggest problem this season was the bullpens'  inability to hold a lead. A better job of doing that would have put the Sox into the playoffs. 

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rumor had it the Red Sox weren't really interested in Montgomery because they didn't think highly of his stuff.

I saw Montgomery pitch twice in 2024. he looked to me like he had dead arm for the whole year. Nothing was as sharp as in the 2023 playoffs. Nothing broke with any sharpness. 
Does that mean he comes back strong in 2025 or does that mean he has started his decline ???? Fortunately Bres-slow and Bailey are better equipped than us to figure that out!!!! 
Would Arizona be interested in taking yoshida off our hands???? Maybe bres-slow can figure something out ????

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Sure. There is always room for improvement. But the biggest problem this season was the bullpens'  inability to hold a lead. A better job of doing that would have put the Sox into the playoffs. 

I'm fine calling the pen a bigger need, and losing Jansen and Martin from an already stinky pen is reason enough to say it is number 1.

That doesn't change the fact that we have Houck and 4 mediocre SP'ers for our rotation.

[Maxbialystock]

On 10/13/2024 at 9:20 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

A couple more points:

1) If 2024 was Duran's best season (very possible) it doesn't automatically mean he's going to go back to being a 1-2 WAR player and stay there.

2) Every other team is aware of the same possibility.  Every other team has the same data and plenty of guys to analyze it.

 

Agree.  I too don't see Duran slowing down quickly.  And forget Ellsbury, possibly the most injury-prone player in the history of sports (an exaggeration). 

But I also would not hesitate to trade Duran for a good starter, one who is not about to go on the IL for elbow repairs.  

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine calling the pen a bigger need, and losing Jansen and Martin from an already stinky pen is reason enough to say it is number 1.

That doesn't change the fact that we have Houck and 4 mediocre SP'ers for our rotation.

You have made the case that the Sox need both a good starter (or two) and good relievers.  And I think they also need good righty bats.  

What I liked about that recent article on talksox is the notion that, despite the Sox needs, which are real, they were 81-81 this year and do not need a complete overhaul to make the postseason next year.  If anything, with all that talent in the minors, I think the Sox are in a good position.  Unfortunately, there is still the matter of  grey matter which seems to be lacking in the front office.  

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

You have made the case that the Sox need both a good starter (or two) and good relievers.  And I think they also need good righty bats.  

What I liked about that recent article on talksox is the notion that, despite the Sox needs, which are real, they were 81-81 this year and do not need a complete overhaul to make the postseason next year.  If anything, with all that talent in the minors, I think the Sox are in a good position.  Unfortunately, there is still the matter of  grey matter which seems to be lacking in the front office.  

I'd put RHB way below Pen and rotation help. We do need a back-up or starting catcher for a bridge year to Teel, so maybe there is a way.

I trust Campbell as the RHB we need. I trust Anthony's splits that show he hits lefties well.

I trust that almost all our batters are pre-prime or prime and most should improve over 2024.

Assuming a limited budget and not allowing a blockbuster prospect trade, we might not have enough resources to fill 1 SP slot and 2 pen slots with high quality and then have anything left for a real good RHB.

[sk7326]

Duran is their best trade chip from a position of strength - so looking to deal him for starting pitching help is understandable.  Whether that pitcher exists is another question and whether that would be decisive in winning a bidding war is another issue. 

[moonslav59]

According to the most recent BTV values I can find, here is what they have:

71 Duran

65 Mayer

53 Anthony (I'd put Anthony above Mayer)

47 Bello

40 Teel

39 Campbell I'd have Campbell over Bello & Teel)

35 Houck

29 Abreu

24 Crawford

19 Casas (This seems low.)

11 DHam

[Larry Cook]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

According to the most recent BTV values I can find, here is what they have:

71 Duran

65 Mayer

53 Anthony (I'd put Anthony above Mayer)

47 Bello

40 Teel

39 Campbell I'd have Campbell over Bello & Teel)

35 Houck

29 Abreu

24 Crawford

19 Casas (This seems low.)

11 DHam

Isn’t Bryce Miller at 57.5 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t Bryce Miller at 57.5 

84 Kirby

80 Gilbert

49 Miller & Woo

-10 Garver

-16 Haniger

-31 Castillo

According to this, something like Mayer and Abreu gets us Gilbert or Kirby.

Mayer gets us Miller or Woo

That assumes SEA wants Mayer, when they have a SS. 

13 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t Bryce Miller at 57.5 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It took balls to trade Sale, something Bloom could not bring himself to do.

Brez aso traded Dugo, but that was no blockbuster.

So, no balls to make a bold trade, but somehow you think JH will grow some and spend bigly?

Again, I agree that spending is the best way to preserve our everyday 13 and nice depth, but I think a bold trade is  more likely than JH spending over $40-50M, this winter in AAV.

i'm not sure i'd call it 'having balls' to trade Sale. i'd call it something else.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

According to the most recent BTV values I can find, here is what they have:

71 Duran

65 Mayer

53 Anthony (I'd put Anthony above Mayer)

47 Bello

40 Teel

39 Campbell I'd have Campbell over Bello & Teel)

35 Houck

29 Abreu

24 Crawford

19 Casas (This seems low.)

11 DHam

What are the most recent BTV values on Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida?

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm not sure i'd call it 'having balls' to trade Sale. i'd call it something else.

It was bold.

It back-fired, no doubt, but it was a big trade- something Bloom did not do since being forced to deal Betts.

I guess trading Beni was kinda bold. 1 semi-bold trade in his last 3.5 years. Instead, he let guys walk in free agency. Lovely!

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm not sure i'd call it 'having balls' to trade Sale. i'd call it something else.

-69 Story (owed $77.5M)

-24 Yoshida (better than I thought, as we could "save $30M" by trading him and worth more than Castillo on BTV.)

-23 Giolito (worth less than he's owed.)

-15 Whitlock (seems steep)

-8 Hendriks (owed $4M)

-7 Rafaela

[win red sox]

some up to date btv with names mentioned recently

Gilbert 65.6

Kirby 111.4

Story -68.8

Yoshida -23.7

Webb 76.9

Ray -34.2

Rooker 31

Wilson Contreras -27.1

Gausman -1.7

Alcantrara 20.6

Luzardo 11.5

Eury Perez 41.1

Skenes 85.4

Skubal 79.7

[harmony]

Baseball Trade Values grants limited access:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1

On the topic of Baseball Trade Values: We all bring our own biases when we question BTV valuations.

Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh a surplus value of $19.8 million.

Raleigh plays a premium position.

Over the past three seasons Raleigh topped all catchers with 13.9 fWAR, valued at $111.4 million.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024&pos=c

$111.4 million

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cal-raleigh/21534/stats?position=C#value

Raleigh, who turns 28 years old next month, has three seasons of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $5.6 million.

The past three years Raleigh's home run production has increased from 27 to 30 to 34 playing his home games in a pitchers park. The relevance of RBI has been questioned because of the stat's dependence on factors outside the hitter's control. Still, Raleigh drove in 100 runs this year on a club that for much of the season struggled to score runs.

Perhaps the BTV valuation overlooked Raleigh's defensive skills that have been credited for the success of the Seattle pitching staff. Raleigh, who led MLB in innings caught, may receive a value boost from his recent Gold Glove nomination. 

The Mariners would be more likely to trade a starting pitcher than trade Raleigh.

[Bellhorn04]

On 10/14/2024 at 10:56 PM, moonslav59 said:

It was bold.

It back-fired, no doubt, but it was a big trade- something Bloom did not do since being forced to deal Betts.

For all we know, Brez was forced to deal Sale - maybe not directly, but because of the budget - which would be not be all that different from Bloom being forced to deal Betts.

Can't take anything for granted with this bunch.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

For all we know, Brez was forced to deal Sale - maybe not directly, but because of the budget - which would be not be all that different from Bloom being forced to deal Betts.

Can't take anything for granted with this bunch.

I totally agree, and have not been quick to jump on Brez. We've already hashed over, enough, all the reasons why the deal might have worked out better.

It looks like we might have "fixed" the 2B problem, internally, without or with Grissom's help.

To me, much of this off season's final grade will be determined by 2 things:

1. The winter spending budget, which could range from $20M to $60M.

2. Brez's ability and or willingness to trade a top 4 prospect.

He might not be "free" to do much more than what Bloom was allowed to do. He might also be told to make certain moves, like dumping a salary.

While Bloom deserves all the criticism he gets for his most costly additions- Story and Yoshi, within the context of losing betts, Price, Porcello, JD, Nate, Bogey and others, had that money been spent wisely, it would still have been hard to come close to the talent we lost.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

Baseball Trade Values grants limited access:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1

On the topic of Baseball Trade Values: We all bring our own biases when we question BTV valuations.

Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh a surplus value of $19.8 million.

Raleigh plays a premium position.

Over the past three seasons Raleigh topped all catchers with 13.9 fWAR, valued at $111.4 million.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024&pos=c

$111.4 million

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cal-raleigh/21534/stats?position=C#value

Raleigh, who turns 28 years old next month, has three seasons of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $5.6 million.

The past three years Raleigh's home run production has increased from 27 to 30 to 34 playing his home games in a pitchers park. The relevance of RBI has been questioned because of the stat's dependence on factors outside the hitter's control. Still, Raleigh drove in 100 runs this year on a club that for much of the season struggled to score runs.

Perhaps the BTV valuation overlooked Raleigh's defensive skills that have been credited for the success of the Seattle pitching staff. Raleigh, who led MLB in innings caught, may receive a value boost from his recent Gold Glove nomination. 

The Mariners would be more likely to trade a starting pitcher than trade Raleigh.

I think they grossly undervalued Raleigh and likely overvalued some Sox players. I don't pay for their site, but they seemed to do a pretty good job, overall.