A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is the Tigers and Bregman are at a "standstill." 

Expect a signing, at any moment.

As in the Tigers don't have more money to spend or anywhere to play him considering that they Jace Jung at 3b right now? Once they signed Torres it seemed that Bregman was out in DET. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This season will be all about the Big Three, the trio that made MLB's 2024 All-Minor League Prospect Team: Anthony, Campbell and -- that's right -- Jhostynxon Garcia... 

Yes, The Password: the true reason Breslow and Bailey's dingaling circus won't spend on a bat, not even to replace their team home run leader who defected to a division rival.

Garcia will soon homer his way to the big leagues, or ruin his back trying. He's the company answer to who will be the next Manny, the righthanded power bar to Raffy Dever's Big Papi. The swing and hair kinda do resemble Ramirez (or is that just Jho being Manny).

Curiously, Soxprospects.com -- a highly-regarded site -- gives JG a "Potential below-average hit tool." 

Potential used as an adjective means "having or showing the capacity to become or develop into something in the future." Isn't that something good? Professional hitters may develop some bad habits, but don't all amateurs classify as below-average at the pro level until they at least sign their first contracts?

We're all possible below-average at anything, but would any baseball scout keep his job if he told his bosses to draft a kid because he had below-average potential?

 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Wasn't Pivetta going to get a big deal? 

We may not even get the comp pick.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This season will be all about the Big Three, the trio that made MLB's 2024 All-Minor League Prospect Team: Anthony, Campbell and -- that's right -- Jhostynxon Garcia... 

 

706 OPS in AA. He needs to prove it at a higher level considering what you wrote about the hit tool scouting report. Even if he has a strong year, he won't be helping the big club at any point. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

706 OPS in AA. He needs to prove it at a higher level considering what you wrote about the hit tool scouting report. Even if he has a strong year, he won't be helping the big club at any point. 

He had just 114 ABs in AA, but the concern is legit.

I'm higher on him, than most, but he is not going to be a force on the big club for 2025, for sure.

His brother might have more promise (not for 2025.)

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He had just 114 ABs in AA, but the concern is legit.

I'm higher on him, than most, but he is not going to be a force on the big club for 2025, for sure.

His brother might have more promise (not for 2025.)

His BB rate died after leaving Salem. He needs to fix that. 

Also, a lot more of his contact was going oppo and/or on the ground in AA. We've seen issues like that from Blaze Jordan who isn't always able to hand velo and pull the ball with authority. 

Sox believed in him enough to put him on the 40 man. We'll see how he develops this year.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His BB rate died after leaving Salem. He needs to fix that. 

Also, a lot more of his contact was going oppo and/or on the ground in AA. We've seen issues like that from Blaze Jordan who isn't always able to hand velo and pull the ball with authority. 

Sox believed in him enough to put him on the 40 man. We'll see how he develops this year.

He was the "borderline" Rule 5 guy, and I remember we did not see eye-to-eye on the choice to protect him. I'm glad we did, but certainly there is a chance he ends up not making it. I think it came down to the fear that a team like PIT, MIA or OAK might have selected him, based on his upside promise, only and not about any 2025 hopes.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He was the "borderline" Rule 5 guy, and I remember we did not see eye-to-eye on the choice to protect him. I'm glad we did, but certainly there is a chance he ends up not making it. I think it came down to the fear that a team like PIT, MIA or OAK might have selected him, based on his upside promise, only and not about any 2025 hopes.

Sox decided it wasn't worth the small risk that he'd be selected. They've added guys like Marcus Wilson in the past that were not anywhere near Garcia's level. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hey, Jho...

Where you goin with that bat in yo hands

I'm goin down to rake my po tential

Caught it messin round with another sham

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox decided it wasn't worth the small risk that he'd be selected. They've added guys like Marcus Wilson in the past that were not anywhere near Garcia's level. 

True. I also think the strength and weakness of the bottom of the 40 plays into these chocies, too. Our last few DFA'd players ended up being traded. I think our 40 man roster is stringer at the bottom, than previous, recent seasons.

As of now, here is how I see our most likely to DFA.trade list:

Blake Sabol

Bernardino, Zach Penrod, Justin Wilson (will get a look-see, first)

Murphy can be added to the 60 Day IL on opening day, otherwise, he might make the list.  Sandoval will be added day one, and that will make room for someone.

Nick Sogard (We are very light on 40 man roster depth with everyday players, but having Campbell, Anthony and Mayer, "at the ready" to be added makes the situation not so urgent.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

IF Sam Kennedy's Colossus was actually trying to win a championship this year, it might be able to pry closer Mason Miller away from Sacramento. 

Marcelo Mayer for Mason Miller? A's are always mayered in rebuilds, while the Sox are always all in...

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

IF Sam Kennedy's Colossus was actually trying to win a championship this year, it might be able to pry closer Mason Miller away from Sacramento. 

Marcelo Mayer for Mason Miller? A's are always mayered in rebuilds, while the Sox are always all in...

Would the A's make that trade? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Would the A's make that trade? 

Yes, if I'm their GM; I'd always trade a relief arm for a position player projected to be an above-average hitter and MLB regular.

Btw, it's a No if I'm Boston's CBO -- because the Red Sox aren't good enough yet to trade a future core player for someone who fills the most volatile year-to-year role in baseball, and who could blow out his arm any pitch now.

But Sam says they're going for it this year... and we have to believe he's telling the truth.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But Sam says they're going for it this year... and we have to believe he's telling the truth.

When did he say they are going for it? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

When did he say they are going for it? 

Sam's Fan Fest interview a few weeks ago: "We are incredibly pleased where we are... Brez was incredibly aggressive at the winter meetings..." (fact check: incredible means impossible to believe)

"Where we sit right now we're very optimistic about this group having the ability to win 90-plus games and win that division and get in the postseason..."

He called it a priority at the end of last season, and now he says "this group" has the ability to do it.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sam's Fan Fest interview a few weeks ago: "We are incredibly pleased where we are... Brez was incredibly aggressive at the winter meetings..." (fact check: incredible means impossible to believe)

"Where we sit right now we're very optimistic about this group having the ability to win 90-plus games and win that division and get in the postseason..."

He called it a priority at the end of last season, and now he says "this group" has the ability to do it.

And in mid-June or thereabouts Sam will be deployed once again to publicly opine that the team is underperforming.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sam's Fan Fest interview a few weeks ago: "We are incredibly pleased where we are... Brez was incredibly aggressive at the winter meetings..." (fact check: incredible means impossible to believe)

"Where we sit right now we're very optimistic about this group having the ability to win 90-plus games and win that division and get in the postseason..."

He called it a priority at the end of last season, and now he says "this group" has the ability to do it.

The ability to sneak into the playoffs, not the ability to win the WS. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And in mid-June or thereabouts Sam will be deployed once again to publicly opine that the team is underperforming.

Really hate that guy. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And in mid-June or thereabouts Sam will be deployed once again to publicly opine that the team is underperforming.

Fans, as they always do, will take the blame... but still try to fund additional spending.

"It's on us," a poster will type, "caps, t-shirts, jerseys -- but not yellow."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The ability to sneak into the playoffs, not the ability to win the WS. 

This doesn't sound like sneaking: "We're aiming for worlds championships. That's the aim, that's the goal, that's why we're here. We're here to win championships. Our fans deserve World Series championships. As many as we can possibly win while we're here. We are not going to waste this opportunity."

Sam didn't state, however, which worlds: Earth 1, Bizarro World, Venus, Mars, Uranus, Hisanus, etc. 

[notin]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Would the A's make that trade? 

I hope they don’t expect more for a closer than a top ten prospect…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This doesn't sound like sneaking: "We're aiming for worlds championships. That's the aim, that's the goal, that's why we're here. We're here to win championships. Our fans deserve World Series championships. As many as we can possibly win while we're here. We are not going to waste this opportunity."

Sam didn't state, however, which worlds: Earth 1, Bizarro World, Venus, Mars, Uranus, Hisanus, etc. 

Jurassic World? The World According to Garp?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Would the A's make that trade? 

Maybe not. Miller has 4 years of control, and this one is pre-arb.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

I hope they don’t expect more for a closer than a top ten prospect…

A pre-ARB closer who had 2 fWAR last year. If Mayer is called up, does he even get to 2 fWAR? Is he healthy enough to have more fWAR than a reliever? 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe not. Miller has 4 years of control, and this one is pre-arb.

Right. If he only had 2 years left, it'd be a different story. 4 years of Miller vs 6 years of Mayer MAY make the A's think twice. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Jurassic World? The World According to Garp?

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World. 

Yes, but it doesn't have to be so angry.

Regarding trading or receiving controllable years of a young pitcher, a smart front office has to factor in one year lost to Tommy John, and at least another half year of rehab before a second half of limited comeback/effectiveness.

So for anyone with five years of control, you're really only getting three worth of contributions.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yes, but it doesn't have to be so angry.

Regarding trading or receiving controllable years of a young pitcher, a smart front office has to factor in one year lost to Tommy John, and at least another half year of rehab before a second half of limited comeback/effectiveness.

So for anyone with five years of control, you're really only getting three worth of contributions.

Are relievers getting TJS at the same rate? Doesn't seem like it? 

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Right. If he only had 2 years left, it'd be a different story. 4 years of Miller vs 6 years of Mayer MAY make the A's think twice. 

I also do not see this as "trading away the future," since Miller's 4 years of service remaining is about what you get from a rising prospect, anyway. They often take 1-2 years to adjust and give 4 productive seasons.

I might even give Mayer & one or two from Kelly, Penrod, Bernardino or non-40 man Mata or for Miller.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are relievers getting TJS at the same rate? Doesn't seem like it? 

Good question. The only one we really care about right now is Crochet, who was a reliever from college until last season, and already had his first TJ.