A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, redsoxrules said:

How did they not sigh Burns? I thought he would get 250M and all it took is 210. I say all because the market has been crazy. I just don't understand this FO

Well, if you believe they're on the level about spending and competing, their #1 target was Fried, and when they lost out there they pivoted to Crochet.  I don't think they were ever really big on Burnes.  He does have some concerning trends going on.

Burnes's deal has an opt-out after 2 years, so that adds a bunch of risk for Arizona.   

 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, if you believe they're on the level about spending and competing, their #1 target was Fried, and when they lost out there they pivoted to Crochet.  I don't think they were ever really big on Burnes.  He does have some concerning trends going on.

Burnes's deal has an opt-out after 2 years, so that adds a bunch of risk for Arizona.   

 

The report is the Red Sox were working on deals at the same time with Castillo from Seattle, and Crochet from Chicago. Casas would go to Seattle, but Seattle, balked at taking Masa, so then the deal was finalized with Chicago. Which would have been better? Time will tell.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The report is the Red Sox were working on deals at the same time with Castillo from Seattle, and Crochet from Chicago. Casas would go to Seattle, but Seattle, balked at taking Masa, so then the deal was finalized with Chicago. Which would have been better? Time will tell.

I think that rumored scenario preceded the Buehler signing, not the Crochet trade. 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think that rumored scenario preceded the Buehler signing, not the Crochet trade. 

Yes it did, but what does that have to do with working on both trades at the same time? If Seattle would have taken Masa that trade could have gone through, and not the Crochet deal. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes it did, but what does that have to do with working on both trades at the same time? If Seattle would have taken Masa that trade could have gone through, and not the Crochet deal. 

Where are you getting the info that they were working on the Castillo trade and the Crochet trade at the same time?

Here's what was reported by Boston Strong Dec 26: 

The Red Sox couldn’t get a deal done with the Mariners for Luis Castillo because they wanted Triston Casas and the Red Sox were only open to trade Casas if they took Yoshida too. That’s why they went with Walker Buehler instead. -

@Feinsand

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Where are you getting the info that they were working on the Castillo trade and the Crochet trade at the same time?

Here's what was reported by Boston Strong Dec 26: 

The Red Sox couldn’t get a deal done with the Mariners for Luis Castillo because they wanted Triston Casas and the Red Sox were only open to trade Casas if they took Yoshida too. That’s why they went with Walker Buehler instead. -

@Feinsand

Mass Live by Chris Cotillo. I read this yesterday, and reported this yesterday. Supposedly happened at the Winter Meetings.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

The report is the Red Sox were working on deals at the same time with Castillo from Seattle, and Crochet from Chicago. Casas would go to Seattle, but Seattle, balked at taking Masa, so then the deal was finalized with Chicago. Which would have been better? Time will tell.

What is the trade value of Triston Casas?

One value comp might be Tampa first baseman Yandy Diaz, who is included in this featured hypothetical trade at Baseball Trade Values:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/181711

BTV assigns a surplus value of $29.9 million to four years of Casas and a surplus value of $23.4 million to Diaz, who is owed $10 million in 2025 with a 2026 club option for $12 million (no buyout).

Steamer projects a 25-year-old Casas with a 2025 WAR of 2.4 in 146 games and a 33-year-old Diaz with a 2025 WAR of 3.6 in 150 games.

The BTV hypothetical would send Diaz and six years of infielder Curtis Means to Seattle for a four=player package of a 20-year-old Top 50 prospect and three first-round draft picks (two disappointing and one in the 2025 draft).

The Red Sox are in a win-now mode without the fiscal constraints of the Rays, but would the Sox trade Casas and, say, five years of infielder Vaughn Grissom for the Seattle package? The aggregate BTV numbers match up.

Speaking of matching up ... Baseball Trade Values assigns Boston righthander Lucas Giolito and Seattle outfielder/DH Mitch Haniger identical negative trade values of $15.5 million.

Would the Red Sox be interested in Haniger's righthanded bat, perhaps as a platoon partner with Wilyer Abreu? Would the Mariners want Giolito as depth behind their touted five-man starting rotation?

Haniger has one year and $15.5 million remaining on his contract, according to Spotrac. Giolito is owed $19 million in 2025 with a 2026 mutual option for $14 million ($1.5 million buyout) if he pitches 140 innings in 2025. Giolito's contract also includes incentives for innings pitched each year.

Haniger's contract includes a $1 million assignment bonus that is typically picked up by the trading team, in this case the Mariners. The frugal Seattle front office might be unwilling to take on Giolito's 2025 salary and 2026 buyout on top of the assignment bonus.

Steamer projects Haniger with a 2025 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 105 games and Giolito with a 2025 WAR of 1.0 in 29 games, including 15 starts.

Someone has too much time on his hands this holiday season.😃

[Bellhorn04]

39 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Mass Live by Chris Cotillo. I read this yesterday, and reported this yesterday. Supposedly happened at the Winter Meetings.

OK.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, redsoxrules said:

How did they not sigh Burns? I thought he would get 250M and all it took is 210. I say all because the market has been crazy. I just don't understand this FO

Burnes wanted to stay close to family in Arizona! 

[a700hitter]

3 hours ago, redsoxrules said:

How did they not sigh Burns? I thought he would get 250M and all it took is 210. I say all because the market has been crazy. I just don't understand this FO

Another miss by the FO.  Their soccer club will be very good.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, redsoxrules said:

How did they not sigh Burns? I thought he would get 250M and all it took is 210. I say all because the market has been crazy. I just don't understand this FO

I thought he might get $240/7 or $250M/8.

We had tax room for a $30M AAV, and maybe we could have traded Crawford  and others for a 2 of ....

RHB, top RP or catcher.

[a700hitter]

They will conclude the off season without a getting one of the top FA’s.  What else is new.  And the ticket prices will still be the highest in baseball.

[Duran Is The Man]

Papi says the Sox never even offered Soto $600M. meaning they were full of s*** about being seriously interested in signing him. f*** you John Henry, you lying POS.

[Larry Cook]

In 2024, the Red Sox brought in 800 million in revenue and spent 200 million on salaries and another 300 million (estimated) in operations! 

 Net to ownership of 300 million less taxes! 
 

not a bad year for a sucky team 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, harmony said:

What is the trade value of Triston Casas?

One value comp might be Tampa first baseman Yandy Diaz, who is included in this featured hypothetical trade at Baseball Trade Values:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/181711

BTV assigns a surplus value of $29.9 million to four years of Casas and a surplus value of $23.4 million to Diaz, who is owed $10 million in 2025 with a 2026 club option for $12 million (no buyout).

Steamer projects a 25-year-old Casas with a 2025 WAR of 2.4 in 146 games and a 33-year-old Diaz with a 2025 WAR of 3.6 in 150 games.

The BTV hypothetical would send Diaz and six years of infielder Curtis Means to Seattle for a four=player package of a 20-year-old Top 50 prospect and three first-round draft picks (two disappointing and one in the 2025 draft).

The Red Sox are in a win-now mode without the fiscal constraints of the Rays, but would the Sox trade Casas and, say, five years of infielder Vaughn Grissom for the Seattle package? The aggregate BTV numbers match up.

Speaking of matching up ... Baseball Trade Values assigns Boston righthander Lucas Giolito and Seattle outfielder/DH Mitch Haniger identical negative trade values of $15.5 million.

Would the Red Sox be interested in Haniger's righthanded bat, perhaps as a platoon partner with Wilyer Abreu? Would the Mariners want Giolito as depth behind their touted five-man starting rotation?

Haniger has one year and $15.5 million remaining on his contract, according to Spotrac. Giolito is owed $19 million in 2025 with a 2026 mutual option for $14 million ($1.5 million buyout) if he pitches 140 innings in 2025. Giolito's contract also includes incentives for innings pitched each year.

Haniger's contract includes a $1 million assignment bonus that is typically picked up by the trading team, in this case the Mariners. The frugal Seattle front office might be unwilling to take on Giolito's 2025 salary and 2026 buyout on top of the assignment bonus.

Steamer projects Haniger with a 2025 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 105 games and Giolito with a 2025 WAR of 1.0 in 29 games, including 15 starts.

Someone has too much time on his hands this holiday season.😃

I still maintain there is enough matching pieces to figure out some sort of SEA-BOS trade. I fully understand SEA's reluctance to trade Woo or Miller for just Casas. I also understand why they don't want Yoshida as part of a Castillo deal, but we could add money, or take on Haniger or Garver's contract to further the savings for SEA. 

If Garver was not so bad on defense at Catcher, he'd be a great fit. I do think his bat has bounce-back potential, but he does turn 34, soon. Perhaps he is toast. Maybe Haniger makes more sense, but we do have Anthony knocking on the CF/RF door, and RHB Campbell can play OF, too.

I think just adding enough money might be what is needed. I doubt SEA wants DHam or Winckowski, but maybe adding Fitts or Priester could be enough.

Could this get it done?

Casas (pre-arb then 3 ARBs) Rafaela ($48M/7) & Yoshida ($56M/3)

for

Castillo ($72M/3), Haniger ($15.5M/1) and Garver ($12.5M/1)

SEA saves a lot, year one (like $30M), then it's about even for 2 years.

BOS sees the AAV like this: $24M in '25($48M-$24), Save $2M in '26 and '27 ($$24.3M-21.6), then save Rafaela's contract for 4 years ($6.3M)

I think Rafaela sweetens the pot for SEA by enough, and taking on Haniger and Garver makes the money work for SEA.

BOS might be getting two total duds in Haniger and Garver, but each are in their last year of control. The real worry for BOS is castillo's apparent decline and age (32-34 for contract years plus vesting option.)

I'm not so sure this works for BOS. Is Castillo really going to do much better than Gio/Craw in '25 and Craw/Fitts/Priester in '26 and '27? Is the gain worth losing Casas? Do we then need to sign Bregman, so Devers moves to 1B? We'd also lose the two guys best suited for DH, but that can be easily covered by platooning Refsnyder with Haniger or Garver.

Maybe I have too much time on my hands, too.

I'd rather we work out a deal for Miller or Woo, but I'm thinking maybe they are not as good as I once thought they were.

[harmony]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I still maintain there is enough matching pieces to figure out some sort of SEA-BOS trade. I fully understand SEA's reluctance to trade Woo or Miller for just Casas. I also understand why they don't want Yoshida as part of a Castillo deal, but we could add money, or take on Haniger or Garver's contract to further the savings for SEA. 

If Garver was not so bad on defense at Catcher, he'd be a great fit. I do think his bat has bounce-back potential, but he does turn 34, soon. Perhaps he is toast. Maybe Haniger makes more sense, but we do have Anthony knocking on the CF/RF door, and RHB Campbell can play OF, too.

I think just adding enough money might be what is needed. I doubt SEA wants DHam or Winckowski, but maybe adding Fitts or Priester could be enough.

Could this get it done?

Casas (pre-arb then 3 ARBs) Rafaela ($48M/7) & Yoshida ($56M/3)

for

Castillo ($72M/3), Haniger ($15.5M/1) and Garver ($12.5M/1)

SEA saves a lot, year one (like $30M), then it's about even for 2 years.

BOS sees the AAV like this: $24M in '25($48M-$24), Save $2M in '26 and '27 ($$24.3M-21.6), then save Rafaela's contract for 4 years ($6.3M)

I think Rafaela sweetens the pot for SEA by enough, and taking on Haniger and Garver makes the money work for SEA.

BOS might be getting two total duds in Haniger and Garver, but each are in their last year of control. The real worry for BOS is castillo's apparent decline and age (32-34 for contract years plus vesting option.)

I'm not so sure this works for BOS. Is Castillo really going to do much better than Gio/Craw in '25 and Craw/Fitts/Priester in '26 and '27? Is the gain worth losing Casas? Do we then need to sign Bregman, so Devers moves to 1B? We'd also lose the two guys best suited for DH, but that can be easily covered by platooning Refsnyder with Haniger or Garver.

Maybe I have too much time on my hands, too.

I'd rather we work out a deal for Miller or Woo, but I'm thinking maybe they are not as good as I once thought they were.

The problem for the Mariners probably isn't so much the 2025 budget but the payrolls for 2026 and beyond. That's why Masastaka Yoshida's contract through 2027 is undesirable.

The Seattle farm system had the good fortune of graduating Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert,  George Kirby, Bruce Miller and Bryan Woo within the short span of a few years. The downside now is that their salaries will escalate through arbitration (and through Julio's long-term extension).

Even in his down 2023 season, Luis Castillo's 2.3 fWAR easily surpassed the 1.4 fWAR Yoshida posted in his first two MLB seasons. Steamer projects Castillo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts and Yoshida with a 2025 WAR of 1.2 in 123 games.

Mitch Garver is a bounceback candidate to platoon with Luke Raley at DH (or with Randy Arozarena flipping from the outfield to DH according to the matchups). That assumes the Mariners land a first baseman from a dwindling market. Yandy Diaz or Ryan Mountcastle are possibilities; Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson would be disappointing consolations.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, harmony said:

The problem for the Mariners probably isn't so much the 2025 budget but the payrolls for 2026 and beyond. That's why Masastaka Yoshida's contract through 2027 is undesirable.

The Seattle farm system had the good fortune of graduating Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert,  George Kirby, Bruce Miller and Bryan Woo within the short span of a few years. The downside now is that their salaries will escalate through arbitration (and through Julio's long-term extension).

Even in his down 2023 season, Luis Castillo's 2.3 fWAR easily surpassed the 1.4 fWAR Yoshida posted in his first two MLB seasons. Steamer projects Castillo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts and Yoshida with a 2025 WAR of 1.2 in 123 games.

Mitch Garver is a bounceback candidate to platoon with Luke Raley at DH (or with Randy Arozarena flipping from the outfield to DH according to the matchups). That assumes the Mariners land a first baseman from a dwindling market. Yandy Diaz or Ryan Mountcastle are possibilities; Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson would be disappointing consolations.

I realize SEA is looking to save more money than just $6M for '2026 and 2027 ($24M Castillo- $18M Yoshida,) but it is still something, Saving $30M in 2025 is a hug savings that can be applied to future years. It's $6M in 2025 more than just dumping Castillo's full salary on someone without including Haniger, as you suggest. it's over $21M more for 2025 for Castillo+Haniger vs Yoshida. 

I think the money part is okay for SEA. I'm not sure they like or want Rafaela, so that part could be changed, which would add more saving to SEA (and cost to BOS.)

[moonslav59]

We are still over $30M under the first tax line, and it was mentioned that we were able to go over line one, this year. I know we don't have to spend big just for the sake of spending, but we still have 2-3 major needs to be filled and precious little FA fits remain. In theory, we should have $30M-$50M to spend.

Some of the FAs that were signed by other teams seemed to want to play for those teams, even at lower contract cost, so there was not much we could do about that. It seems Cohen was not going to be outbid on Soto, and now the reported $700M offer by the Sox is being disputed.

As much as the Price contract stands a stark warning on large and long contracts, I think we need(ed) to bite the bullet, choose one guy that fits the best, and just refuse to be outbid, unless the bidding just gets totally absurd. I do not see many that fit the "totally absurd" category, but Soto and maybe a couple others do or come close.

Here are some signed deals that I think we not absurd overpays, knowing full well, some of these guys would not have signed with BOS, even if we offered significantly more:

$60M/3 Kikuchi (looks like a steal, now.)

$8.5M/1 Jansen (We couldn't go $17M/2, knowing Teel was to be traded?)

$12M/2 d'Arnaud (We still need a catcher)

$13.5M/2 Higgy (not sure he'd be worth $14+M/2, but we need a catcher who can catch.)

$11.5M/2 Carson Kelly (See d'Arnaud, Jansen and Higgy above)

$75M/2 Manaea (NYM might have bid higher) & Nate (TX native)

$210M/6 Burnes (wanted AZ)

$60M/3 Walker (would then trade Casas for pitching)

$218M/8 Fried (borderline absurd money & years)

$66M/3 Teoscar (wanted LAD)

[notin]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox sign Noah Davis to minors

Backup plan in case Burnes didn’t work out

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Backup plan in case Burnes didn’t work out

I doubt Burnes was ever a "plan." Fried might have been, until the bidding went out of JH's range.

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at our top fWAR players by season since 2020, and how acquired:

(No label= drafted or IFA) 1.3 fWAR + listed

6.7 Duran '24, 6.0 Bogey '22, 5.0 Devers '22, 4.2 Devers '21, 4.1 Bogey '21, 4.1 Devers '24, 3.9 Houck '24, 3.4 Devers '23, 3.1 Abreu '24, 2.5 Duran '23, 2.4 Crawford '23, 2.3 Houck '21, 2.0 Bello '24, 1.9 Crawford '24, 1.7 Vaz, '22 & Casas '23, 1.6 Bogey '20 & Bello '23, , 1.5 JBJ '20, 1.3 Vaz '20, Bello '22, Houck '23 & Barnes '21

FA: 5.7 Nate '21,  3.7 Kike  '21, 2.7 JD '21, 2.6 Renfroe '21, 2.5 Story '22, 1.8 Hill '22, Martin '23 & Wacha '22 & Duvall '23, 1.4 Jansen '24 & JD '22

Waivers: 1.8 Schreiber '22

Rule 5: 1.6 Whitlock '21, 1.4 Whitlock '22

Trade: 3.9 ERod '21, 2.5 O'Neill '24, 2.3 Pivetta 2.1 Sale '23, 2.0 Pivetta '24, '21, 1.9 Pivetta '23 & Verdugo, '21, 1.7 DHam '24, 1.6 Verdugo '20, 1.5 Pivetta '22,  1.5 Slaten '24, 1.4 Verdugo '23, 1.3 McGuire '22

That FA group is pretty freaking bad, when you total all the money spent on FAs.

 

[a700hitter]

On 12/27/2024 at 10:19 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh yeah.  We're done with adding starters.

I think they should have done a much better job, but they are done adding starters.  The offense just does not have enough production to compete. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

I think they should have done a much better job, but they are done adding starters.  The offense just does not have enough production to compete. 

We will need Campbell and or Anthony to make a significant impact.

We also have almost all of our players in pre-prime mode, so we could expect improvement from returning players. The return of Story and Casas (also Devers & Yoshida) to possible full seasons could make a difference, but someone is bound to get hurt.

Nobody is post prime on O, except our short-side. platoon DH: Ref at 33.

Prime: 31 Yoshida, 28 Wong

Just entering Prime: 27 Devers, Duran, Romy

Pre-Prime: 24 Casas, 25 Abreu, 23 Rafaela & Grissom, 26 DHam

It  would be nice to have a big power RHB, but we might end up better than 2024, despite losing O'Neill.

Maybe this is the line-up by mid-season:

1. L Duran L (LF)

2. R Campbell (2B)

3. L Casas (1B)

4. L Devers (3B)

5. R Story (SS)

6. L Abreu RF/L Anthony RF

7. L Anthony CF/ R Rafaela CF

8. L Yoshida/ R Refsnyder DH

9. R Wong/ R Narvaez C

This could work out very well! (Or not.)

 

[Larry Cook]

If Mayer gets off to a good start at Worcester, does he get the call up to Boston when story gets his season ending injury?????

it is not like Mayer is the next cal Ripken ????

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If Mayer gets off to a good start at Worcester, does he get the call up to Boston when story gets his season ending injury?????

it is not like Mayer is the next cal Ripken ????

We should not play Rafaela< Grissom or DHam at SS, unless for a quick fix, one game emergency. That leaves Romy or Campbell, but we may need Campbell at 2B.

We could give all 3 of our top prospects a long look, this year, but I hope we wait until they all gain a service year.

Who knows, maybe this will be a year like Lynn and Rice's 1975 season.

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We should not play Rafaela< Grissom or DHam at SS, unless for a quick fix, one game emergency. That leaves Romy or Campbell, but we may need Campbell at 2B.

We could give all 3 of our top prospects a long look, this year, but I hope we wait until they all gain a service year.

Who knows, maybe this will be a year like Lynn and Rice's 1975 season.

And it'll be the 50th anniversary of that season, so we got that going for us. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And it'll be the 50th anniversary of that season, so we got that going for us. 

the first season i remember watching and why i became a Red Sox fan.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And it'll be the 50th anniversary of that season, so we got that going for us. 

Wow- 50 years!

That season was what set me off on being such a rabid Sox fan. As a teen, I kept score of nearly every game- mostly by radio.

[Duran Is The Man]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow- 50 years!

That season was what set me off on being such a rabid Sox fan. As a teen, I kept score of nearly every game- mostly by radio.

sorta the same, but i'd pour over and dissect the box score in the paper the next day. my brother had a paper route, so i'd have access to the papers before all of my neighbors. the good ol' days. LOL.

[Bellhorn04]

I lived and died with the 1975-1978 teams.  I died on October 2, 1978, and it took a few years to resurrect me.