Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, there's no reason to add Eaton until he actually needs to be up with the Sox. He spent all of last season in AAA. Why would they add Sikes who only has 3 games above AA? 

It would be weird to 60 man a bunch of pitchers and replace them with hitters anyway. Fulmer seems more likely. Maybe Isaiah Campbell too. 

Our roster is loaded with pitchers. The 3 that will go to the 60 are not being counted on.

We have 16 everyday players on the 40 with one being JH Garcia, who will not play MLB in 2025, and another being Sabol, who is there just for catcher depth. Essentially, we have 14 with 13 starting on the big club.

Hell yes, I think we add 3 everyday players. The ones I chose seemed like the most ML ready and possibly healthy listed on the Woo roster. Campbell and Anthony should be two, but I think we hold back on Anthony to gain a year of service. Mayer could be added, if Story looks shaky or we have a MI injury.

If you had to pick 3 everyday players, who are yours? Toro, Hickey and Binales?

[Larry Cook]

On 1/30/2025 at 8:25 PM, moonslav59 said:

Here's our chance to boost the pen!

Just say no!!!!!

[notin]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, there's no reason to add Eaton until he actually needs to be up with the Sox. He spent all of last season in AAA. Why would they add Sikes who only has 3 games above AA? 

It would be weird to 60 man a bunch of pitchers and replace them with hitters anyway. Fulmer seems more likely. Maybe Isaiah Campbell too. 

Eaton could be the RHH platoon partner with Abreu.  
 

Most likely, however, he spends the whole year in Worcester, like this year’s Narciso Crook.  (Could The Password be the RHH RF? Depends on what they think of his ceiling, I suppose.)

[notin]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Our roster is loaded with pitchers. The 3 that will go to the 60 are not being counted on.

We have 16 everyday players on the 40 with one being JH Garcia, who will not play MLB in 2025, and another being Sabol, who is there just for catcher depth. Essentially, we have 14 with 13 starting on the big club.

Hell yes, I think we add 3 everyday players. The ones I chose seemed like the most ML ready and possibly healthy listed on the Woo roster. Campbell and Anthony should be two, but I think we hold back on Anthony to gain a year of service. Mayer could be added, if Story looks shaky or we have a MI injury.

If you had to pick 3 everyday players, who are yours? Toro, Hickey and Binales?

I think there’s a decent chance Password makes his debut this year.  Teams do not as players to the 40 man roster without recognizing this very distant possibility.  They did call up Heineman last year solely because he was the only player left.  I mean, if the Sox get 3 short term injuries to position players, Jhostnyxon has to get the call..

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I think there’s a decent chance Password makes his debut this year.  Teams do not as players to the 40 man roster without recognizing this very distant possibility.  They did call up Heineman last year solely because he was the only player left.  I mean, if the Sox get 3 short term injuries to position players, Jhostnyxon has to get the call..

I seriously doubt we get to opening day with the unbalanced 40 man roster. When we add Murphy, Perales and Sandoval to the 60 day IL, I'm thinking we add at least 2 everyday players to the 40. One might be Campbell or Anthony- maybe both, but we will not allow it to get to a point where JH arcia gets the call before being ML ready.

I think one will be Eaton, and if we end up having to DFA him, later, and lose him, it won't be a big deal. Once we add Campbell and Anthony, they are locked into a slot on the 40, and someone else will need to be DFA'd if we need to add someone else. This is the advantage of adding guys like Eaton, Toro or Sykes. It won't be Hickey or Binelas, so who else is on the AAA roster that could be #40?

[moonslav59]

Ohtani to pitch in May.

 

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at the ALE and top AL contenders' winter pluses and minuses:

BOS: Lost Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, D Jansen/McGuire, L Garcia/Sims

Added: Crochet, Buehler, Chapman, Sandoval, Wilson, Narvaez, J Moran

NYY: Lost Soto, Torres, Cortes, Holmes, Verdugo, Rizzo, Kahnle, Berti,  Trevino, Poteet

Added: Fried, D Willimas, Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Loaisiga, F Cruz

BAL: Lost Burnes, Santander, Means, McCann, E Jimenez, A Slater, J Webb & Coulombe

Added: O'Neill, Morton, G Sanchez, Kittredge, D Carlson & T Sugano

TBR: Lost Springs, Carlson, Siri, Poche & T Alexander

Added: H-S Kim, D Jansen & E Jimenez

TOR: Lost Yarbrough, Tate, Horwitz & Romano

Added: Santander, Scherzer, Hoffman, Y Garcia, Straw, A Gimenez, N Sandlin & J Walker

HOU: Lost Tucker, Bregman (?) Kikuchi, Pressly, Verlander, Urguidy, Neris, Graveman, Gamel, C Ferguson, Heywood

Added: Paredes, Walker, Wesneski

CLE: Lost Boyd, Cobb, Naylor, Straw, Gimenez, Sandlin & Morgan

Add: Santana, Sewald, Luis Ortiz, Cecconi

DET: Lost nobody at all

Added: G Torres, Cobb & Kahnle

KCR: Lost Singer, Y Gurriel, Frazier, W Smith, Pham, DeJong & Grossman

Add: India, Estevez, Lorenzen, Wiemer

SEA: Lost Y Garcia, Josh Rojas, J Turner, Urias, Chargois, Voth & Haggerty

Added: Polanco, Solano & Mastrobuoni

MIN: Lost Margot, Santana, DeSclafani, Kepler, Farmer, Thielbar & Moran

Added: nobody at all

To me, only TOR, DET and BOS clearly got better.

BAL, HOU and MIN got worse

The others stayed about even or maybe got worse.

[mvp 78]

21 hours ago, notin said:

I think there’s a decent chance Password makes his debut this year.  Teams do not as players to the 40 man roster without recognizing this very distant possibility.  They did call up Heineman last year solely because he was the only player left.  I mean, if the Sox get 3 short term injuries to position players, Jhostnyxon has to get the call..

Less than 10%

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is a look at the ALE and top AL contenders' winter pluses and minuses:

BOS: Lost Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, D Jansen/McGuire, L Garcia/Sims

Added: Crochet, Buehler, Chapman, Sandoval, Wilson, Narvaez, J Moran

NYY: Lost Soto, Torres, Cortes, Holmes, Verdugo, Rizzo, Kahnle, Berti,  Trevino, Poteet

Added: Fried, D Willimas, Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Loaisiga, F Cruz

BAL: Lost Burnes, Santander, Means, McCann, E Jimenez, A Slater, J Webb & Coulombe

Added: O'Neill, Morton, G Sanchez, Kittredge, D Carlson & T Sugano

TBR: Lost Springs, Carlson, Siri, Poche & T Alexander

Added: H-S Kim, D Jansen & E Jimenez

TOR: Lost Yarbrough, Tate, Horwitz & Romano

Added: Santander, Scherzer, Hoffman, Y Garcia, Straw, A Gimenez, N Sandlin & J Walker

HOU: Lost Tucker, Bregman (?) Kikuchi, Pressly, Verlander, Urguidy, Neris, Graveman, Gamel, C Ferguson, Heywood

Added: Paredes, Walker, Wesneski

CLE: Lost Boyd, Cobb, Naylor, Straw, Gimenez, Sandlin & Morgan

Add: Santana, Sewald, Luis Ortiz, Cecconi

DET: Lost nobody at all

Added: G Torres, Cobb & Kahnle

KCR: Lost Singer, Y Gurriel, Frazier, W Smith, Pham, DeJong & Grossman

Add: India, Estevez, Lorenzen, Wiemer

SEA: Lost Y Garcia, Josh Rojas, J Turner, Urias, Chargois, Voth & Haggerty

Added: Polanco, Solano & Mastrobuoni

MIN: Lost Margot, Santana, DeSclafani, Kepler, Farmer, Thielbar & Moran

Added: nobody at all

To me, only TOR, DET and BOS clearly got better.

BAL, HOU and MIN got worse

The others stayed about even or maybe got worse.

Boston may have improved its chances with rotation depth, but are the Sox really any closer to New York?

Yanks added Fried, Sox added Crochet -- two of the very best starters available; as additions, they neutralize each other. In the bullpen, Yanks added Williams, Sox added Chapman -- that's not even close. Edge: NY.

In the batting orders, Yanks lost Soto and Rizzo, Sox lost O'Neill. I know they're at different levels of offensive impact, but trying to keep this in perspective...

Yanks added Bellinger and Goldschmidt. Boston added the Invisible Man. He's a real Nowhere Man, isn't he a bit like Red Sox fans. Edge: incomparable, because actual acquisitions give the GAP to NY.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yanks added Bellinger and Goldschmidt. Boston added the Invisible Man. He's a real Nowhere Man, isn't he a bit like Red Sox fans. Edge: incomparable, because actual acquisitions give the GAP to NY.

And you just know Bellinger and Goldschmidt are going to do some good things for them. 

The Yankees picking up these guys while the Sox do nothing to replace O'Neill just highlights once again the difference in how the 2 teams are operating.  The Yankees keep going for it and prioritizing winning while the Sox keep fiddling around and prioritizing profit.   

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Less than 10%

You’re incorrect.  It’s 12-15% exactly…

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Boston may have improved its chances with rotation depth, but are the Sox really any closer to New York?

Yanks added Fried, Sox added Crochet -- two of the very best starters available; as additions, they neutralize each other. In the bullpen, Yanks added Williams, Sox added Chapman -- that's not even close. Edge: NY.

In the batting orders, Yanks lost Soto and Rizzo, Sox lost O'Neill. I know they're at different levels of offensive impact, but trying to keep this in perspective...

Yanks added Bellinger and Goldschmidt. Boston added the Invisible Man. He's a real Nowhere Man, isn't he a bit like Red Sox fans. Edge: incomparable, because actual acquisitions give the GAP to NY.

I’m not sure losing O’Neill is worse than downgrading from Soto to Bellinger.  The Sox lost 2.4 bWAR with O’Neill but the Yankees are trying to replace a 7.9 bWAR player with a 2.2 bWAR player in Bellinger.  That drop off should be so casually equated to just losing O’Neill…

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not sure losing O’Neill is worse than downgrading from Soto to Bellinger.  The Sox lost 2.4 bWAR with O’Neill but the Yankees are trying to replace a 7.9 bWAR player with a 2.2 bWAR player in Bellinger.  That drop off should be so casually equated to just losing O’Neill…

You can't replace a Soto. The Yanks won 94 last year and they look to have done enough to win at least 90 in 2025.  They were in a position of being able to get a couple games worse and still win the division.

The Sox not replacing O'Neill is just a whole different deal.  It's not that O'Neill is a great loss.  But when you look at our problems hitting lefties last year and where our payroll is, doing nothing here is plain and simple negligence and profit-prioritizing.

I might be shifting the point, but it's a slow Sunday...

   

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Boston may have improved its chances with rotation depth, but are the Sox really any closer to New York?

Yanks added Fried, Sox added Crochet -- two of the very best starters available; as additions, they neutralize each other. In the bullpen, Yanks added Williams, Sox added Chapman -- that's not even close. Edge: NY.

In the batting orders, Yanks lost Soto and Rizzo, Sox lost O'Neill. I know they're at different levels of offensive impact, but trying to keep this in perspective...

Yanks added Bellinger and Goldschmidt. Boston added the Invisible Man. He's a real Nowhere Man, isn't he a bit like Red Sox fans. Edge: incomparable, because actual acquisitions give the GAP to NY.

We essentially added Giolito to the rotation, too. You failed to point out who was lost from the rotation. We lost Paxton: they lost Cortes, so I give us the edge on improving that area.

We also added Hendriks to the pen. Yes, we lost Jansen and Martin, but also a lot of scrubs that look like addition by subtraction. The Yanks lost Holmes, Trivino and Kahlne. I still agree, though- advantage NYY by a hair. (You claimed "not even close?")

On batting: The Yanks lost a ton of offense in Soto, some with Torres and a little with Verdugo & Rizzo. To me they lost a lot more than they gained with Bellinger and Goldschmidt, who might be slightly better than Rizzo. We lost O'Neall and McGuire/Jansen and gained nobody. I say we lost less than NYY did: edge BOS.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And you just know Bellinger and Goldschmidt are going to do some good things for them. 

The Yankees picking up these guys while the Sox do nothing to replace O'Neill just highlights once again the difference in how the 2 teams are operating.  The Yankees keep going for it and prioritizing winning while the Sox keep fiddling around and prioritizing profit.   

Do people want the Sox to just spend more money? Or try to put together a better team?

If the Sox lost out on Soto (which they did) and chose to replace their first baseman with Paul Goldschmidt and his Dominic Smith-sequence OPS+ of 98, instead of spending a portion of their Soto money on Polar Bear Pete, what would we call them? Would we predict another great year for Goldschmidt like he had back in 2022?  Or more of the same league-average and rapidly plummeting production he’s had for the past two years?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Do people want the Sox to just spend more money? Or try to put together a better team?

Easiest question ever: both.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can't replace a Soto. The Yanks won 94 last year and they look to have done enough to win at least 90 in 2025.  They were in a position of being able to get a couple games worse and still win the division.

The Sox not replacing O'Neill is just a whole different deal.  It's not that O'Neill is a great loss.  But when you look at our problems hitting lefties last year and where our payroll is, doing nothing here is plain and simple negligence and profit-prioritizing.

I might be shifting the point, but it's a slow Sunday...

   

I have liked O’Neill, even as a Cardinal.  And losing his 1.180 OPS vs LHP will be tough.  But along the same lines, losing his .693 OPS vs RHP should soften that blow a little bit.

The Sox have a good OF.  I do think/hope adding a RHH RF would be helpful, but unfortunately isn’t likely before ST when players can be moved to the 60 day IL.  Unless the Sox make a trade, which is almost impossible to predict…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Easiest question ever: both.

So if they just get better, but do it by being cheap = fail?

Ive repeatedly stated free agent spending is largely just PR.  And you’ve challenged that, but this last post isn’t convincing me otherwise…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And you just know Bellinger and Goldschmidt are going to do some good things for them. 

The Yankees picking up these guys while the Sox do nothing to replace O'Neill just highlights once again the difference in how the 2 teams are operating.  The Yankees keep going for it and prioritizing winning while the Sox keep fiddling around and prioritizing profit.   

Goldschmidt turns 101 in September (38 in Dog years.) His OPS dropped 171 points, 2 years ago and 94 points in 2024. He had a 98 OPS+. I'm not sure why you expect improvement from a 38 year ols, and suggest I am being overly optimistic by saying I project improvement by our whole group of pre-prime, peak prime and prime players, who are basically everybody but Ref.

While the 1B position was a mess for NYY, last year and a .716 repeat OPS bt Goldschmidt would still be a nice gain from 2024, I'm not seeing Goldy making up for the loss of Soto, Torres and Dugo.

Bellinger has a much better chance to make a dent in the losses, but no way he and Goldy come close to what they lost. Anytime a lefty joins NYY, you have to think they could have a big year, and Cody just might, but the guy has been all over the map. I'd say he has as many or more questions as our Sox players do. His OPS over the last 4 years:

.542 in '21 (44 OPS+)

.654 in '22 (81)

.881 in '23 (139)

.751 in '24 (111)

Verdugo's last 4 OPS+ 107>102>100>81

Torres last 4: 93>113>118>101

Soto: 158>127>155>178

Rizzo: 110>130>94>81

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

So if they just get better, but do it by being cheap = fail?

Ive repeatedly stated free agent spending is largely just PR.  And you’ve challenged that, but this last post isn’t convincing me otherwise…

The average free agent gives you 1 additional win per $8-9 million.  It's an expensive way to get better, but no, it's not strictly PR.  If it was strictly PR it would have no added value whatsoever. 

The Red Sox have had a ton of free agent busts, but they've also had plenty of free agent successes that have contributed directly to 4 titles.  We can go over that as many times as you want.    

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Goldschmidt turns 101 in September (38 in Dog years.) His OPS dropped 171 points, 2 years ago and 94 points in 2024. He had a 98 OPS+. I'm not sure why you expect improvement from a 38 year old

Well let's see, when I look at B-R, he's projected to bounce back to .778 in 2025.

So go talk to them.  Don't blame me for looking at some objective numbers.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can't replace a Soto. The Yanks won 94 last year and they look to have done enough to win at least 90 in 2025.  They were in a position of being able to get a couple games worse and still win the division.

The Sox not replacing O'Neill is just a whole different deal.  It's not that O'Neill is a great loss.  But when you look at our problems hitting lefties last year and where our payroll is, doing nothing here is plain and simple negligence and profit-prioritizing.

I might be shifting the point, but it's a slow Sunday...

   

We lost a guy who only played 2/3 a season. It was a big loss, I agree, and it was a loss in an area where we sucked to begin with. but losing Soto, Torres, Dugo and Rizzo is massive vs LHPs and RHPs. Bellinger should do well, but he is a huge "what if?" and Goldy has been falling off a cliff by more than Arenado, on offense.

Why are you giving them the benefit of the doubt, but not our 24-29 year old players?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We lost a guy who only played 2/3 a season. It was a big loss, I agree, and it was a loss in an area where we sucked to begin with. but losing Soto, Torres, Dugo and Rizzo is massive vs LHPs and RHPs. Bellinger should do well, but he is a huge "what if?" and Goldy has been falling off a cliff by more than Arenado, on offense.

Why are you giving them the benefit of the doubt, but not our 24-29 year old players?

I'm looking at track records and the projections that are based on them.  I'm not just going on hopes and hunches.  

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The average free agent gives you 1 additional win per $8-9 million.  It's an expensive way to get better, but no, it's not strictly PR.  If it was strictly PR it would have no added value whatsoever. 

The Red Sox have had a ton of free agent busts, but they've also had plenty of free agent successes.      

But the life of these deals makes nearly all of them detrimental long term.  
 

To the $8mill/WAR; does that calculation reflect only free agent money?  Or are players on extensions included?  There is a vast difference in those situations that easily get lumped together.  
 

Even that $8mill/WAR is an average - an often used an often misleading stat.  It can be skewed heavily by a small number of successes.  For example, it is completely true that the average net worth of me, you, and Bill Gates is over $50 billion each.  Does it accurately reflect your savings account?

Per free agency, too often the players are aging and ready for, if not already in decline. Filling gaps is a good use, but the heavy spending more often than not leads to an unavoidable and inescapable decline.  Most if not all fans say they are ok with free agents dragging the team down if they have successful years upfront.  But almost none keep that attitude once the lean years set in…

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well let's see, when I look at B-R, he's projected to bounce back to .778 in 2025.

So go talk to them.  Don't blame me for looking at some objective numbers.

Steamers projects .756 for Bellinger & Goldschmidt. Who is replacing Torres?

.699 Cabrera

.681 LeMahieu

(I'm assuming Chisholm plays 3B.)

They project these OPS, too:

.958 Soto

.734 Torres

.703 Rizzo

These are "objective numbers," too.

We lost a guy STEAMER projects to have a .751 OPS in 2025.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm looking at track records and the projections that are based on them.  I'm not just going on hopes and hunches.  

What is encouraging about Goldschmidt's track record? What about Cabrera and LeMahieu replacing Torres? Am I missing the track record, there?

I do think Bellinger will have a good year, but his track record is spotty. He has a track record more in line with Verdugo than Soto.

Last 4 years:

.725 Verdugo (6.9 bWAR)

.724 Bellinger (6.3 bWAR)

So, count Bellinger as Verdugo's replacement. Goldy for Rizzo, then this...

Cabrera & LeMahieu for Torres and Mr. Diddly for Soto, yet somehow us losing O'Neall comes close to this? I'm flabbergasted.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Somehow this whole thread today evolved into the "losses" to NY and Boston.

My post was about what they added... this offseason. 

The Yankees added Devin Williams, who was hurt part of last season but is one of the best closers in baseball. He was an All-Star the two previous years, received MVP votes, and in '24 had a sub-1.00 WHIP and WAR of 1.4. The Red Sox added Aroldis Chapman, who hasn't been an All-Star in half a decade, and when he was he gave up postseason-losing walk-off home runs. In '24 he had a 1.346 WHIP and a WAR of 0.4. Like I said when comparing the two, not. even. close.

As for Soto, I stick by my claim for the past year that he was the #1 difference-maker in winning the Yankees the pennant (and for Judge having his best season). But at least the Yanks tried to replace the production by adding two MVPs in Bellinger and Goldschmidt.

The Red Sox lost their home run leader and added nothing in their batting order but more lies to their fans.

Nobody here or anywhere is saying Boston should spend for the sake of spending. But everybody agrees the Sox should spend on talent to add better players to their team -- because they can afford it, and to justify what they charge to watch them.

 

[notin]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Somehow this whole thread today evolved into the "losses" to NY and Boston.

My post was about what they added... this offseason. 

The Yankees added Devin Williams, who was hurt part of last season but is one of the best closers in baseball. He was an All-Star the two previous years, received MVP votes, and in '24 had a sub-1.00 WHIP and WAR of 1.4. The Red Sox added Aroldis Chapman, who hasn't been an All-Star in half a decade, and when he was he gave up postseason-losing walk-off home runs. In '24 he had a 1.346 WHIP and a WAR of 0.4. Like I said when comparing the two, not. even. close.

As for Soto, I stick by my claim for the past year that he was the #1 difference-maker in winning the Yankees the pennant (and for Judge having his best season). But at least the Yanks tried to replace the production by adding two MVPs in Bellinger and Goldschmidt.

The Red Sox lost their home run leader and added nothing in their batting order but more lies to their fans.

Nobody here or anywhere is saying Boston should spend for the sake of spending. But everybody agrees the Sox should spend on talent to add better players to their team -- because they can afford it, and to justify what they charge to watch them.

 

Didn’t Devin Williams give up a postseason losing walkoff home run LAST YEAR?

And the answer, of course, is no.  When Williams gave up a ninth inning, two out, 3 run home run to Pete Alonso in the last game of the NLWC series, allowing the Mets to come back from a 2-0 deficit to a 4-2 winning margin and take the series, it was during a home game.  In front of his own fans…

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

But the life of these deals makes nearly all of them detrimental long term.

Well, I guess it's a matter of opinion whether winning a championship makes it worth it.  You and I obviously differ on that. 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Didn’t Devin Williams give up a postseason losing walkoff home run LAST YEAR?

And the answer, of course, is no.  When Williams gave up a ninth inning, two out, 3 run home run to Pete Alonso in the last game of the NLWC series, allowing the Mets to come back from a 2-0 deficit to a 4-2 winning margin and take the series, it was during a home game.  In front of his own fans…

Glad you brought up the Polar Bear. That was actually a great hit by Alonso, going with the pitch and taking it the other way on a line over the fence. And he's still a free agent -- anybody know a club that could use a right-handed hitter who averages 43 home runs a year for six seasons?

"But where would we put him?" asked a Red Sox fan. How about: CLEAN-UP.