Red Sox Run Prevention Watch

[Bellhorn04]

As of now the Red Sox have given up 5 runs or more in 16 of their last 19 games, including the last 5 in a row. Starting this thread with hopes it gets better, but with the realization it might not. All comments on our run prevention issues are welcome, of course.

[notin]

I assume by “run prevention”, you mean “pitching.” The Sox have little to no interest in defense…

[Bellhorn04]

I assume by “run prevention”, you mean “pitching.” The Sox have little to no interest in defense…

 

Not even trying to distinguish between the two at this point. The Red Sox supposedly have a Run Prevention Unit.

[vegasbob]

One major key to the run prevention scheme is having the pitchers find a better gear when they have 2 outs, and especially 2 strikes on the batters. A lot of the recent damage, and it is noted by Bailey & Cora, comes with 2 outs and 2 strikes. They just can't close the door. They also give up HR's to some of the more obvious hitters in the opposing lineup.

 

Indicates a few things: limited skill pitchers who don't have another pitch available, lack of control/command with the ball, fatigue late in innings after already throwing 20 other pitches, and/or lack of focus . This thoughts apply both to starters and relievers.

[moonslav59]

Part of run prevention is defense, and while the numbers may not show it, our defense looks better, to me, than it did in April.

 

Devers ha stabilized. Duran made a big step forward, this year. Smith stabilized 1B. While DHam, Romy and Sogard are no wonders on middle IF D, and Rafaela, too, it has not been god-awful D. Abreu has been inconsistent, and the GG O'Neill has not looked like even a plus. Rafaela in CF would be a great improvement to our D, but lacking a SS and 2Bman makes it tough to do that, right now.

 

The pitching has been a near total collapse. Less than a handful of pitchers have even given us sporadic good games. The majority have been bad to awful in every game for about a month, now. If this continues, all hope is lost. Our only hope is that some of most can turn things around and quickly.

 

There is no evidence this is happening, except for maybe Houck, Jansen and maybe 1-2 others, but baseball is a sport that is very difficult to project. Going by a player's most recent 2-4 weeks to predict the following 4-7 weeks or our remaining hopes, is not something I adhere to.

 

I'm not predicting a turnaround, but I do think it is still possible. The rough starts by Paxton, Garcia and Sims has not helped, but there is no reason to think they all will suck for the rest of the season. Martin's return could help. Slaten & Hendriks, might, too.

 

To me, it will come down to our rotation. They just cannot be this bad, going forward, or we will be toast, real soon. (Some seem to think that is already a certainty.)

[Bellhorn04]

Now 6 in a row and 17 out of 20.

[moonslav59]

Now 6 in a row and 17 out of 20.

 

Will it ever end?

[Bellhorn04]

Will it ever end?

 

It's certain to end by September 29.

[moonslav59]

It's certain to end by September 29.

 

So, opening day 2025, it stops?

[Bellhorn04]

Just like that, the Sox are 7th worst in runs allowed per game in MLB.

[mvp 78]

Not even trying to distinguish between the two at this point. The Red Sox supposedly have a Run Prevention Unit.

 

It's just the nickname they gave the following group:

 

Baily, Willard, Tek, Walker (bullpen coach), Miller (analyst) and Rose (analyst).

 

Every team has this same group. The Sox just have a nickname for theirs.

[moonslav59]

Just like that, the Sox are 7th worst in runs allowed per game in MLB.

 

What a stark turnaround from April.

[jgar658]

It has gotten really bad. To the point that I can predict the homers by the opposition with great certainty.

As someone said above the homers come from obvious hitters such as Yordan Alvarez.

One would think a savy pitcher would know this and give the obvious home run hitters nothing to hit as long as there is room in the bases.

 

Cora should also immediately take out any reliever that is allowing solid hard contact more than three times.

[moonslav59]

 

Cora should also immediately take out any reliever that is allowing solid hard contact more than three times.

 

That is all of them.

[notin]

That is all of them.

 

We could see every reliever every game!! Until September when all their arms fall off!

[Duran Is The Man]

Not even trying to distinguish between the two at this point. The Red Sox supposedly have a Run Prevention Unit.

 

hopefully they'll look in a different dumpster than the one they've been using.

[mvp 78]

We could see every reliever every game!! Until September when all their arms fall off!

 

Yeah, it's a great idea if the entire 40 man was up and you didn't have to worry about injuries.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We could see every reliever every game!! Until September when all their arms fall off!

 

Even the ones they use to hold their gloves! Hey, that's what happens to guys who do constant arm windmills trying to catch or ward off incessant head-seeking missiles flying moundward from home plate...

[notin]

Yeah, it's a great idea if the entire 40 man was up and you didn't have to worry about injuries.

 

And Dom Smith could lead the bullpen in IP!!

[mvp 78]

And Dom Smith could lead the bullpen in IP!!

 

He should be an opener.

[Bellhorn04]

Just to be a miserable prick I'm going to drop the threshold to 4 runs.

 

In their last 30 games, the Sox have allowed less than 4 runs a grand total of 4 times.

[moonslav59]

Just to be a miserable prick I'm going to drop the threshold to 4 runs.

 

In their last 30 games, the Sox have allowed less than 4 runs a grand total of 4 times.

 

I'm surprised it's that many!

[Dipre]

Read an article on The Athletic that posits that a lot of the regression has to do with younger starters having trouble repeating their delivery as their innings build up, but the big one is other teams telling their hitters to sit slider, as the sox don-t throw 4-seamers. Coaching needs to adjust.

[moonslav59]

Read an article on The Athletic that posits that a lot of the regression has to do with younger starters having trouble repeating their delivery as their innings build up, but the big one is other teams telling their hitters to sit slider, as the sox don-t throw 4-seamers. Coaching needs to adjust.

 

It might help, if our guys could throw unhittable fastballs, but your point is well-taken.

[mvp 78]

Read an article on The Athletic that posits that a lot of the regression has to do with younger starters having trouble repeating their delivery as their innings build up, but the big one is other teams telling their hitters to sit slider, as the sox don-t throw 4-seamers. Coaching needs to adjust.

 

Pivetta: 47.8%, 50.6% '23

Bello: 3.4%, 20.6% '23

Houck: 0%, 9.8% '23

Crawford: 35.1%, 39.2% '23

 

It's not fair to say that they don't throw 4 seamers anymore. Guys with bad 4 seamers like Houck and Bello have greatly reduced the amount it's been thrown. Bello has started to tick it back up more recently as is more comfortable when it's in his arsenal. Houck seems better off without it. The decreases from other pitchers aren't a big deal IMO.

[Dipre]

Pivetta: 47.8%, 50.6% '23

Bello: 3.4%, 20.6% '23

Houck: 0%, 9.8% '23

Crawford: 35.1%, 39.2% '23

 

It's not fair to say that they don't throw 4 seamers anymore. Guys with bad 4 seamers like Houck and Bello have greatly reduced the amount it's been thrown. Bello has started to tick it back up more recently as is more comfortable when it's in his arsenal. Houck seems better off without it. The decreases from other pitchers aren't a big deal IMO.

 

I mean, it-s clearly a tongue-in=cheek comment. The point is they need to adjust their pitch selection.

[mvp 78]

I mean, it-s clearly a tongue-in=cheek comment. The point is they need to adjust their pitch selection.

 

My issue is that the statement, or a variation of, has been repeated so often that many people actually think the Sox don't throw 4 seamers anymore.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta: 47.8%, 50.6% '23

Bello: 3.4%, 20.6% '23

Houck: 0%, 9.8% '23

Crawford: 35.1%, 39.2% '23

 

It's not fair to say that they don't throw 4 seamers anymore. Guys with bad 4 seamers like Houck and Bello have greatly reduced the amount it's been thrown. Bello has started to tick it back up more recently as is more comfortable when it's in his arsenal. Houck seems better off without it. The decreases from other pitchers aren't a big deal IMO.

 

How often do they throw 2 seamers?

[mvp 78]

How often do they throw 2 seamers?

 

Pivetta: 6.8

Bello: 0

Houck: 1.7

Crawford: 29.2

 

Bello and Houck throw hard sinkers (5 at 96 or above last night for Houck, 10 at 96 or above last time out for Bello).

[moonslav59]

Pivetta: 6.8

Bello: 0

Houck: 1.7

Crawford: 29.2

 

Bello and Houck throw hard sinkers (5 at 96 or above last night for Houck, 10 at 96 or above last time out for Bello).

 

So, we do throw a lot of fastballs and hard sinkers. It's not like all we throw are sliders, sweepers and change-ups.