A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

Can we at least miss the playoffs before we condemn the team for missing the playoffs? The season isn’t over yet just because you found your white flag…

 

Yeah, we still have a 35% chance according to the projectors.

 

I never used to be a white flagger. I was even with you in 2022 and 2023 in not wanting to sell at the deadline.

 

I'm not the same Sox fan these days. They've made me cynical. And it goes back to 2019 and Henry's decisions to trade Betts/cut payroll/preserve the bottom line over all else.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, we still have a 35% chance according to the projectors.

 

I never used to be a white flagger. I was even with you in 2022 and 2023 in not wanting to sell at the deadline.

 

I'm not the same Sox fan these days. They've made me cynical. And it goes back to 2019 and Henry's decisions to trade Betts/cut payroll/preserve the bottom line over all else.

 

The worst part about having only a 36% chance at making the playoffs is that 7 teams have a better chance. It sucks that two of those teams, HOU & SEA, currently have worse records than we do.

 

It is very easy to be cynical. They give us ample reason to go down that road, and there are no signs of a turnaround in spending in sight.

 

The rebuilt farm offers some hope, but it's hard to imagine us coming close to a ring, without some major expenditures directed towards our pitching staff- either with spending or trading farm capital. With no sign of that coming, it's hard to build up hope.

[Bellhorn04]

The worst part about having only a 36% chance at making the playoffs is that 7 teams have a better chance. It sucks that two of those teams, HOU & SEA, currently have worse records than we do.

 

It is very easy to be cynical. They give us ample reason to go down that road, and there are no signs of a turnaround in spending in sight.

 

The rebuilt farm offers some hope, but it's hard to imagine us coming close to a ring, without some major expenditures directed towards our pitching staff- either with spending or trading farm capital. With no sign of that coming, it's hard to build up hope.

 

It's not just the lack of expenditures, of course. It's that plus a series of disastrous blunders or bad luck, whichever you prefer, with Kluber, Sale and Giolito. Pure Hapless Harry stuff.

[moonslav59]

It's not just the lack of expenditures, of course. It's that plus a series of disastrous blunders or bad luck, whichever you prefer, with Kluber, Sale and Giolito. Pure Hapless Harry stuff.

 

We should have "hit" on more of our moderate expenditures, but I do not think we swung and missed much more than the norm for signings at $5M/1 to $10M/1. You get what you pay for, and that's pretty much what we got.

 

The Kluber & Richards were are largest SP signings between Nate and Gio, and they both bombed, but others gave us about what we should have expected:

Wacha

R Hill

Paxton

Perez I & II

 

The pen signings are more mixed:

Jansen

Martin

Barnes extension

Strahm

Diekman

 

It did kill us that our biggest 3 SP'er signings bombed, bigtime: Giolito, Kluber & Richards. Then, the Sale trade just threw gas of the fire. That's basically our 4 biggest SP'er decisions since the Nate extension. All failed, badly. While that is more on the GM than JH, I still blame JH more than the GMs for the state of our rotation, right now.

[notin]

Yeah, we still have a 35% chance according to the projectors.

 

I never used to be a white flagger. I was even with you in 2022 and 2023 in not wanting to sell at the deadline.

 

I'm not the same Sox fan these days. They've made me cynical. And it goes back to 2019 and Henry's decisions to trade Betts/cut payroll/preserve the bottom line over all else.

 

The Betts move is going to be up there with Babe Ruth, Bagwell, Herb Pennock, and Red Ruffing on the list of Future Hall of Famers the Sox just gave away for no reason. The only thing keeping Betts from being higher on the list is that the Dodgers haven’t been able to turn that gift into a bunch of rings.

 

My problem with this team is they refuse to embrace what’s working. Houck, Bello and Crawford might be the best internally developed trio of pitchers since Clemens, Hurst and Boyd. Why do they keep trying to force Whitlock in there? I figured that was a Bloom thing and it would stop this year, but nope.

 

And if you have this young trio, you need to support them with inning-eating veteran SP. I get why Sale was moved and Giolito brought in. Sale was not an innings-eater anymore. Giolito was even during his least effective stretches. But when Giolito went down, there were still options. Why were they ALL ignored? Ok you pass on Montgomery. He wasn’t the only arm left.

 

I also don’t get ignoring the SS position once Story went down, unless Wilyer Abreu forced that issue. Which I’m ok with.

 

I don’t care if the Sox ever become a top tier payroll. They did that enough times to shoot me it’s not always a formula for success, but it is more likely to be a formula for stagnating mediocrity. But if you want to be a team that runs itself smartly, don’t do stuff even idiot fans like me think is dumb…

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t care if the Sox ever become a top tier payroll. They did that enough times to shoot me it’s not always a formula for success, but it is more likely to be a formula for stagnating mediocrity.

 

They were a top tier payroll team in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

[Duran Is The Man]

Yeah, we still have a 35% chance according to the projectors.

 

I never used to be a white flagger. I was even with you in 2022 and 2023 in not wanting to sell at the deadline.

 

I'm not the same Sox fan these days. They've made me cynical. And it goes back to 2019 and Henry's decisions to trade Betts/cut payroll/preserve the bottom line over all else.

 

i talked to an old guy (older than me) at Dickey-Stephens Park (Mariners AA affiliate) the other night. He saw my Red Sox shirt and said he HAD BEEN a lifelong fan...until Henry got rid of Betts. he said that decision made him so mad, he literally stopped giving a s*** about anything Red Sox. f*** 'em he said. i'm sure he's not the only one out there.

[Duran Is The Man]

Yeah, we still have a 35% chance according to the projectors.

 

I never used to be a white flagger. I was even with you in 2022 and 2023 in not wanting to sell at the deadline.

 

I'm not the same Sox fan these days. They've made me cynical. And it goes back to 2019 and Henry's decisions to trade Betts/cut payroll/preserve the bottom line over all else.

 

if DD was the GM, he would trade Mayer or whoever to add pitching. and then he would be absolutely roasted for "decimating the farm". DD knows what it takes to win. Bloom didn't and i wonder about Brez.

[moonslav59]

They were a top tier payroll team in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

 

Indeed, along with many of the losing seasons and even last place seasons.

[Duran Is The Man]

We should have "hit" on more of our moderate expenditures, but I do not think we swung and missed much more than the norm for signings at $5M/1 to $10M/1. You get what you pay for, and that's pretty much what we got.

 

The Kluber & Richards were are largest SP signings between Nate and Gio, and they both bombed, but others gave us about what we should have expected:

Wacha

R Hill

Paxton

Perez I & II

 

The pen signings are more mixed:

Jansen

Martin

Barnes extension

Strahm

Diekman

 

It did kill us that our biggest 3 SP'er signings bombed, bigtime: Giolito, Kluber & Richards. Then, the Sale trade just threw gas of the fire. That's basically our 4 biggest SP'er decisions since the Nate extension. All failed, badly. While that is more on the GM than JH, I still blame JH more than the GMs for the state of our rotation, right now.

 

hits and misses and all small market moves.

[Duran Is The Man]

The Betts move is going to be up there with Babe Ruth, Bagwell, Herb Pennock, and Red Ruffing on the list of Future Hall of Famers the Sox just gave away for no reason. The only thing keeping Betts from being higher on the list is that the Dodgers haven’t been able to turn that gift into a bunch of rings.

 

My problem with this team is they refuse to embrace what’s working. Houck, Bello and Crawford might be the best internally developed trio of pitchers since Clemens, Hurst and Boyd. Why do they keep trying to force Whitlock in there? I figured that was a Bloom thing and it would stop this year, but nope.

 

And if you have this young trio, you need to support them with inning-eating veteran SP. I get why Sale was moved and Giolito brought in. Sale was not an innings-eater anymore. Giolito was even during his least effective stretches. But when Giolito went down, there were still options. Why were they ALL ignored? Ok you pass on Montgomery. He wasn’t the only arm left.

 

I also don’t get ignoring the SS position once Story went down, unless Wilyer Abreu forced that issue. Which I’m ok with.

 

I don’t care if the Sox ever become a top tier payroll. They did that enough times to shoot me it’s not always a formula for success, but it is more likely to be a formula for stagnating mediocrity. But if you want to be a team that runs itself smartly, don’t do stuff even idiot fans like me think is dumb…

 

well said.

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed, along with many of the losing seasons and even last place seasons.

 

No Manny No Rings.

[moonslav59]

i talked to an old guy (older than me) at Dickey-Stephens Park (Mariners AA affiliate) the other night. He saw my Red Sox shirt and said he HAD BEEN a lifelong fan...until Henry got rid of Betts. he said that decision made him so mad, he literally stopped giving a s*** about anything Red Sox. f*** 'em he said. i'm sure he's not the only one out there.

 

The loss of Betts was a huge gut punch.

 

It was worse than not offering Carlton Fisk a contract, in time, and then blowing up the team of the mid and late 70's.

 

Guys like Betts are generational- even multi-generational. He's like a hundred year storm event. You just can't let a guy like that get away, and we did.

 

Even if we somehow-someway get ourselves back to a championship, I'm not sure that stench will ever go away.

 

For me, I doubt I can ever let go and stop "giving a s***" about the Sox. They are in my blood and bones. I guess a blood transfusion might work, but I've never heard of complete body bone transplants.

 

I'm doomed.

[moonslav59]

hits and misses and all small market moves.

 

True, and when you look at MLBs largest and longest deals ever signed, you'll see a pretty high swing and miss rate, as well.

 

(It is one major plus area for DD. His success rate on big signings seems much better than most GMs, although Price, Sale and Nate were not all that great.)

[Bellhorn04]

The losing and last place seasons have all been under Cherington and Bloom.

[Randy Red Sox]

They were a top tier payroll team in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

 

don't confuse us with facts Bellhorn

[Bellhorn04]

True, and when you look at MLBs largest and longest deals ever signed, you'll see a pretty high swing and miss rate, as well.

 

(It is one major plus area for DD. His success rate on big signings seems much better than most GMs, although Price, Sale and Nate were not all that great.)

 

DD is now on his way to 3 straight playoff appearances with the Phils. He spends big but generally delivers results on the spending.

 

And somewhat ironically perhaps, the 2024 Red Sox are built on guys bequeathed by DD - Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Houck and Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

The losing and last place seasons have all been under Cherington and Bloom.

 

Yes, and we were still a "top tier spending team" in many of their seasons as GM.

 

Hell, we were the third highest paid team in 2020, one of the team's worst all-time losing percentage seasons.

 

We've been in the top 6-10 as late as 2022.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and we were still a "top tier spending team" in many of their seasons as GM.

 

Hell, we were the third highest paid team in 2020, one of the team's worst all-time losing percentage seasons.

 

I object, and I'm one of the guys who considers 2020 a legit championship season, but it was 60 games and heavily impacted by a pandemic...

[Bellhorn04]

Let's put it this way, we sure haven't proven we can make the playoffs without having one of the top payrolls...

[moonslav59]

DD is now on his way to 3 straight playoff appearances with the Phils. He spends big but generally delivers results on the spending.

 

And somewhat ironically perhaps, the 2024 Red Sox are built on guys bequeathed by DD - Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Houck and Rafaela.

 

Yes, indeed. His "emptying of the farm" was a gross misrepresentation of what he did, although his moves did contribute to a serious lag on farm infusion between the Devers call up and the Casas & Bello arrivals.

 

I will say that we will soon be seeing the Bloom influence on farm building manifest itself. It may not be enough to get us to glory, again, but we should get a huge boost.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, indeed. His "emptying of the farm" was a gross misrepresentation of what he did, although his moves did contribute to a serious lag on farm infusion between the Devers call up and the Casas & Bello arrivals.

 

I will say that we will soon be seeing the Bloom influence on farm building manifest itself. It may not be enough to get us to glory, again, but we should get a huge boost.

 

But where's the pitching?

[dgalehouse]

As stated before, the fangraphs odds of getting a wild card is something that is useless and should be ignored. It changes like the weather. Conceding a spot to either the Orioles or Yankees, that leaves four teams fighting for two spots. The teams that get hot down the stretch will be the ones who make it. The Sox have as good a chance as the others. Maybe even a little better chance. That being said, I am not thrilled to just be in contention for the gimmicky third wild card. The goal should always be to beat the Yankees and win the Division. Nothing less.

[moonslav59]

I object, and I'm one of the guys who considers 2020 a legit championship season, but it was 60 games and heavily impacted by a pandemic...

 

We did spend more than all but two teams, that year. Injuries to Sale and ERod hurt, bigtime, but we were still a big spender. The problem was, hardly any was new spending- same as 2019, and that was largely because of JH, but also because DD chose to sign JD, extend Sale, Nate (re-sign) and Bogey and not Betts, Kimbrell & Kelly. (The Porcello money was never spent, either.)

 

This is not meant to be a criticism of DD. To me, he was not allowed to keep everyone. Someone was bound to be left out. Too bad it was Betts, and Mookie seemed to have a role in that choice made by DD, too.

[moonslav59]

But where's the pitching?

 

My position is well known on that.

 

We need to trade top prospect capital for a TOTR pitcher, ASAP.

 

It would be nice to spend bigly on another one, at the same time, but I am not expecting that to happen. (I'm not sure we trade top prospects, either, but trades like Yorke for Priester was encouraging to a much lesser degree than what is needed, of course.)

[notin]

They were a top tier payroll team in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

 

 

Do you have a point? We’re those were the only 4 years?

 

Sox were also a top payroll team in 2012, 2014, and 2015. Also they had the highest payroll in team history in 2019. And they weren’t far off the top payroll in 2020.

 

Like I said, spending doesn’t guarantee winning. Are you really going to argue that it does?

[dgalehouse]

The big lie is blaming Dombrowski for the Betts trade. Mookie was under contract through the 2020 season. Bloom traded Mookie. That is the reality.

[notin]

I object, and I'm one of the guys who considers 2020 a legit championship season, but it was 60 games and heavily impacted by a pandemic...

 

I’m ok with counting 2020. If the Sox won it, I’d have counted it. Plus I really wanted baseball that year…

[dgalehouse]

Do you have a point? We’re those were the only 4 years?

 

Sox were also a top payroll team in 2012, 2014, and 2015. Also they had the highest payroll in team history in 2019. And they weren’t far off the top payroll in 2020.

 

Like I said, spending doesn’t guarantee winning. Are you really going to argue that it does?

 

Of course spending doesn't guarantee winning. But it certainly helps. Are you really going to argue that it doesn't ?

[moonslav59]

As stated before, the fangraphs odds of getting a wild card is something that is useless and should be ignored. It changes like the weather. Conceding a spot to either the Orioles or Yankees, that leaves four teams fighting for two spots. The teams that get hot down the stretch will be the ones who make it. The Sox have as good a chance as the others. Maybe even a little better chance. That being said, I am not thrilled to just be in contention for the gimmicky third wild card. The goal should always be to beat the Yankees and win the Division. Nothing less.

 

I think the odds are pretty accurate. We have almost half the chance of making the playoffs as the next lowest team, who both (HOU and SEA) are fighting for a weak division title.

90%+ NYY, BAL CLE

85% MIN

53-65% HOU & SEA

36% BOS

(Nobody else is even over 6%)