2024 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Anthony and Campbell are of to nice starts in AAA. Teel, not so much.

 

1.239 Campbell (1-3 w HR and BB, today)

1.022 Anthony (1-4, today.)

.265 Teel (0-3 w BB, today.)

 

Grissom 0-4 w 2Ks. OUCH! (.604, now.)

 

[moonslav59]

Highest OPS in all of the minor leagues combined:

300+ PAs

 

1.033 Campbell A+, AA, AAA #1

1.017 Gasper AA, AAA #2

 

20. Jh Garcia .929 A-, A+, AA

25. Kavadas .921 AAA (traded)

32. Arias .906 CPX, A-

59. Westbrook .876 AAA

72. Anthony .868 AA, AAA

74. Meidroth .866 AAA

101. M Mayer .850 AA, AAA

110. B Gonzalez .847 A+

135. Dalbec .830 AAA

153. Sogard .821 AAA

179. Yorke .809 AA, AAA (traded)

199. E Alvarez .804 AAA

207. Teel .800 AA, AAA

(897 batters w 300+ PAs)

Romero .844 (280 PAs A+)

 

Go to 350 PAs (617 qualified)

1. Campbell

6. Jh Garica

41. Anthony

54. Meidroth

104. Teel

114. Castro .798

 

How about the 355 batters with 400+ PAs?

1. Campbell

30. Anthony

31. Meidroth

70. Sogard

100. Teel

105. Castro

[moonslav59]

Top xFIP in all minor leagues (50+ IP) 1080 qualifiers

2. Ingrassia 1.88 A-

12. Paez 2.51 A-, A+

61. Carlson 3.04 A-, A+

107. Early .3.29 A+, AA

119. Penrod 3.32 AA, AAA

120. Wehunt 3.32 A-, A+

126. O'Donnell 3.34 A-

128. Monegro 3.35 CPX, A+

158. E R-C 3.45 A-, A+

179. Sena 3.50 A+, AA

 

Valera has the 2nd best WHIP ).82 and 19th best ERA at 1.84. No HRs allowed is tied for first.

 

 

Edited August 25, 2024 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Top xFIP in all minor leagues (50+ IP) 1080 qualifiers

2. Ingrassia 1.88 A-

12. Paez 2.51 A-, A+

61. Carlson 3.04 A-, A+

107. Early .3.29 A+, AA

119. Penrod 3.32 AA, AAA

120. Wehunt 3.32 A-, A+

126. O'Donnell 3.34 A-

128. Monegro 3.35 CPX, A+

158. E R-C 3.45 A-, A+

179. Sena 3.50 A+, AA

 

Valera has the 2nd best WHIP ).82 and 19th best ERA at 1.84. No HRs allowed is tied for first.

 

 

 

Accept for valero, these all look like bullpen arms at best

[moonslav59]

The DSL Sox team swept their first playoff series by a combined score of 27-8 (3 gms.) In the final game, Justin Gonzalez went 5-6.

 

Our farm teams have been doing pretty well, this year.

 

Woo finished 8th in the first half of the season at 35-40, but are T2nd at 27-22 in the second half of the season. Overall, they are at .500.

 

POR is tied for the fewest losses in the Eastern League (69-49) and just promoted a mess of talent to Woo.

 

GRE came on at the end and are in 2nd place in the second half standings at 32-21. Overall, they are 58-61.

 

SAL improved, a lot, in the second half by going 30-23 for 2nd place. Overall, 64-55 gives them the 5th best record in the 12 team Carolina League.

 

The FCL team ended up 35-24 (3rd in the division and 6th best out of 15 teams.)

[moonslav59]

Accept for valero, these all look like bullpen arms at best

 

Too early on Ingrassia, and maybe E R-C can take a big step, next year, but I agree.

 

I'm starting to like Dobbins more and more.

 

Maybe Paez can keep this going.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Anthony hit a home run over the scoreboard. In the video, the sign it clears says Norfolk Airport.

 

Any HR that goes over an airport traffic control tower has to be a very large sample size.

 

https://nesn.com/2024/08/red-sox-star-prospect-belts-moonshot-in-second-straight-game/

 

(scroll down)

[mvp 78]

Accept for valero, these all look like bullpen arms at best

 

Not sure Early’s stuff plays up out of the pen. He’s a backend starter if things break right.

 

Paez has the starter’s arsenal, but low velo. Scouts are coming around on him, but I want to see him do it at higher levels.

[moonslav59]

Here is what soxprospects.com says about some of our prospect pitchers with promise.

 

(Note: I do not think they over-hype pitching. They seem very fair and objective, to me. I often think they undersell them.)

 

7. Perales Potential back-end starter or multi-inning bridge arm. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Wide variance arm with a high ceiling and low, but rising, floor. Size, delivery, and inconsistent command and control profile might push him into the bullpen, but has shown among the best raw stuff of any arm in the system

 

10. Sandlin High-variance prospect with starter upside. Will show three pitches that are at least average with an above-average command-and-control profile. Stuff appears to have ticked up during winter workouts heading into the 2024 season, but it remains to be seen if he can hold those gains into regular season action. If the improvements with his fastball that he showed in the offseason hold, projection could change. Exciting arm with considerable upside if things click.

 

14. Tolle Wide range of outcomes from a left-handed reliever to a back-end starter. Very unique pitching prospect given his size and delivery. Could have some untapped potential as he has only focused exclusively on pitching very recently. His extension would grade near the top of all pitchers in pro ball, and even though his velocity is only average, he misses a ton of bats with his fastball. Needs to improve command and control and develop a third pitch to stick as a starter, but has a relatively high floor as a fastball dominant left-handed reliever. Type of arm that you want to bring into the player development system with some standout traits to build on. May also throw a cutter and/or curveball that do not appear in his pitch data.

 

15. Fitts Potential multi-inning depth arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Has some traits you look for in a starting pitching prospect, but effort in delivery and lack of a third pitch hint at the bullpen being Fitts’ most likely destination. Stuff improved as the 2023 season went on and has apparently improved further in 2024. Could be a candidate to take a step forward working with the Red Sox' new development staff, as he was tweaking his secondary pitches throughout 2023. Needs to find a consistent third pitch and continue to refine his slider to have a chance to stick in the rotation. Has a starter's fastball with the command and control to work deep into games. Needs to find a consistent pitch to get lefties out and limit damage in the air.

 

16. E R-C Potential emergency depth starter. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. . Has a four-pitch mix, with three showing average potential, but stuff is on the pedestrian side overall and there are questions about how many bats it will miss against more advanced hitters. Solid pitchability. Arsenal does not look like it would translate to a bullpen role, so most likely will have to show he can stick in the rotation.

 

20. Dobbins Potential up-and-down depth starter or multi-inning reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. At his best, will show plus-to-better velocity and several secondary pitches that can all get hitters out. Wide-ranging arsenal with pitches that move in all directions and confidence that he can throw any of them for strikes. Still working to find a go-to, major league-quality out pitch. Effortful delivery brings injury and consistency concerns, and needs to improve his fastball command. Fastball can get hittable later in games and velocity tends to tick down. Needs to show he can consistently get left-handed hitters out to profile as a starter, but has developed into one of the more intriguing arms in the system.

[moonslav59]

Part II

 

21. Wikelman Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a quality mid-rotation starter. Still has a wide variance of outcomes; will show four pitches, including a fastball and curveball that stand out, but delivery and command are more like that of a reliever. Potential for three above-average-to-better pitches, but still a long way to go in development and must significantly improve command and control to reach his ceiling. Needs to throw more strikes and be more efficient with his pitches to last deeper into games. Does not have the typical size you look for in a starter. Has simplified his delivery over the course of his career, which should make it easier for him to keep his arm in sync with the rest of his body, but still has considerable effort in his delivery. If command does not improve, that, along with his size and delivery, could push him to a short relief bullpen role, but with his stuff, he could thrive in such a role or even in a multi-inning role.

 

22. Penrod Potential up-and-down, multi-inning depth arm. Ceiling of a depth/sixth starter type. Better than your typical indy ball signing, especially given how little time he has in affiliated ball. Will show feel for all of his pitches and solid velocity from the left side. Changeup is a legit out pitch, but needs to refine his fastball command and control. Stuff will be tested against more advanced hitters, but has shown already that he is too good for the low-minors. Still pretty early in the developmental process even though he is already 26, so there is a chance further work with player development could unlock even more.

 

23. Cason (SS, too) Most scouts prefer him on the mound...On the mound has a three-pitch mix with impressive velocity...

 

24. Early Potential organizational starter. Ceiling of an emergency depth starter. Durable and has solid pitchability, but present stuff other than his changeup is fringy. If his stuff takes a step forward, he could develop into a very interesting arm. As is, still has a relatively high floor with his feel and ability to locate all of his pitches and change speeds.

 

25. Monegro Potential up-and-down, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. High variance arm who is still learning to pitch. Still very projectable and has already added velocity, even within the season. Could gain even more velocity given how loose his arm is and the remaining projection in his frame. Stuff took a significant step forward in 2023, making him a much more interesting prospect. Needs to show more consistency and improve command and control as he moves up the ladder. Fastball quality could stand to improve, as could creating separation between his two breaking balls. Has dabbled with a changeup in the past and adding something like that or a splitter could give him a better chance to stick in the starting rotation. Pitches with emotion and swagger.

 

27. Valera Athletic frame with some remaining projection. On the raw side, but shows two intriguing pitches already. Fastball works 93-97 mph. Pitch is hittable, and command and control are a work in progress. Also throws a slider at 83-85 mph that he has already shown the ability to manipulate the pitch's shape. Does not have a third pitch at present. Very intriguing arm for an 18-year-old. Likely looks destined for a bullpen role due to his lack of a third pitch and concerns about strike-throwing, but checks a lot of boxes that you look for in a pitching prospect his age.

 

28. J Paez Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

 

29. Mullins Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Will show bat-missing ability with three pitches and the ability to get righties and lefties out at his best. Will initially be developed as a starter, but delivery, command profile, and injury history point to him likely ending up in the bullpen.

 

30. Neely Likely will be developed as a starter, but has a higher floor as a potential bullpen arm. Intriguing fastball-slider combo could profile well in a bullpen role. Development of changeup, curveball and command will be keys to his chances to start. Checks a lot of boxes the Red Sox look for, with a unique delivery with a low release height and a fastball with solid traits and bat-missing ability. Has also shown a curveball and cutter on occasion.

 

32. Guerrero Potential middle-inning reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning leverage reliever. Has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system, but needs to improve command and control and consistency. Walks too many hitters and has not missed as many bats in the high minors as he did in the low minors. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level, but needs to regain his 2022 form with the pitch. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed. Has plus makeup and is regarded as one of the hardest workers in the system. Very popular with teammates.

 

33. Wehunt Potential organizational arm. Ceiling of a multi-inning depth reliever. Lacks a plus pitch, but has three pitches he is comfortable throwing for strikes and size you do not often see. Really imposing presence on the mound with an off-putting delivery for hitters and solid present stuff.

 

34. Da. Reyes High-upside arm with substantial projection that checks all the boxes you look for in a teenage starting pitching prospect. Already throws strikes and has feel for two secondaries. Very intriguing arm that could see his stock soar after he makes the jump stateside if he continues on his current development path.

 

35. Bastardo Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Right now, lacks the fastball quality and command to stick as a starting pitcher. Secondary pitches are ahead of fastball, with changeup and breaking ball both showing bat-missing potential. Needs to further refine his two breaking balls, which can run into each other at times.

 

36. N Dean Potential organizational arm. Wide-range of outcomes as he is transitioning to a starting role in pro ball. Intriguing raw stuff with untapped potential. Needs to work on secondaries and command and control, but lefties with good velocity that miss bats are not easy to find, so presents an intriguing package for a pitching prospect. Can always fall back to the bullpen if necessary.

 

39. Gambrell Potential up-and-down swingman. Wider range of outcomes for a college player due to his pitch changes after the pandemic. Got into better shape and velocity has increased in 2021. Reasonably high floor as a reliever due to fastball/breaking ball combination if injury issues crop back up or command does not take a step forward.

[moonslav59]

Part III

 

44. Clarke Intriguing left-hander with an ideal pitcher's frame and present velocity. On the raw side and has a long way to go developmentally. Secondary offerings need work but will flash potential on occasion. Has the frame and velocity that allow you to dream on considerable upside once he is brought into the Red Sox pitching development program.

 

45. Tygart Medium frame. Has some projection left. Effort in delivery. Fringe-average control. Fastball sits 90-93 mph and tops out at 95 mph. Best pitches are a high-spin, 12-to-6 curveball in the mid-70s and a hard, sweeping slider in the upper-70s. Also throws a mid-80s changeup. Missed two months in 2023 with a sprained UCL and his final three starts in 2024 due to a shoulder injury. Received Boston's lone Day 3 over-slot bonus in the 2024 draft class. Has much better stuff than the typical Day 3 draftee, but is inconsistent from outing to outing. Was viewed as a consensus top-200 draft prospect, but injury history likely and inconsistency pushed him out of the draft's first 10 rounds. Has the arsenal to start but would need to significantly improve control. More likely suited for a bullpen role and could be a late-inning arm if he can improve command and control.

 

49. Carlson Profiles best in a bullpen role due to primarily relying on two pitches and effort in delivery. Fastball/changeup combination can play when he is commanding them. Needs to find consistency, but has some upside given how good his changeup was at missing bats as an amateur.

 

50. Ingrassia Pure relief prospect, but has a deceptive delivery and three-pitch mix with confidence in all three offerings. Solid feel on the mound and will pitch backwards at times. All pitches can miss bats even though his velocity is average at best.

 

58. Rogers Potential left-handed reliever. Ceiling of a multi-inning bridge arm. Fastball and changeup are intriguing, but improving his command and control and developing consistency with his secondary pitches are keys for him to reach his potential. Not overpowering, so will have to locate. Undersized and his stuff and command tend to degrade as the game goes on. Stuff grades out well analytically and is appealing for model-driven teams.

 

60. M Duffy Solid pitchability type with some intriguing pitch characteristics. Fastball is on the light side, but commands it well and shows some carry up. Has the type of changeup that could carry him to at least the high minors. Safer pick with upside if he can add some velocity or show the ability to consistently miss bats in pro ball.

[moonslav59]

The DSL Red team keeps winning in their post season (4-0, now.)

 

They scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to win 8-7 via 2 sac flies.

Payano pitched 5 innings of 1 hit and no BBs (4Ks.)

 

Early just struck out Rizzo with a man on 2nd and 3rd to hold the game at 1-1 in the 5th.

 

4.2IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 9K. (9Ks out of 14 outs) He was just pulled from the game.

[moonslav59]

Jh Garcia with another 2 hit game.

 

E R-C 5 IP, 4H, 2ER, 1BB, 4K for GRE

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Said that he SHOULD have a normal offseason though. Yorke had back issues at one point then stopped having them recently. Maybe just a blip? 

[mvp 78]

If he could only stay healthy. 

[moonslav59]

The DSL Red Sox continue winning every playoff game. They won today 10-1

[Larry Cook]

Ingrassia only pitching one inning Sunday. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook v2 said:

Ingrassia only pitching one inning Sunday. 

Do you have an old account you’d like me to retrieve for you?

[moonslav59]

DSL Red...

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/08/cup-of-coffee-jorge-rodriguez-helps.html

[moonslav59]

Anthony, Meidroth, Campbell and Teel are a combined 7 for 11, 7 runs, 6 rbi, two 2Bs, two 3Bs and an HR.

[moonslav59]

Anthony is 4 for 5 and a homer away from the cycle.

[moonslav59]

Anthony 4-5 w BB, 2B & 3B

Meidroth 2-3 w 3BB & 2B

Campbell 1-4 w BB & HR

Teel 1-2 w 2BB & 3RBI

Valdez 2-5 w HR

Fitts 6IP, 5H, 2ER, 0BB, 6K

GRE lost as Paez and Dean pitched poorly. Bleis 3-4 w HR.

SAL lost. Rivera 4IP, 1H, 0BB, 8K

[Larry Cook]

Anthony’s only out, was a liner to short. Kid was locked in against a beach ball thrower 

[moonslav59]

I'm super pumped up about Anthony. I'm sure other GMs are, too.

[mvp 78]

Quote

Listened to the latest Baseball America podcast. They discussed the Mayer injury issues and all seemed to have down arrows on him. Mentioned comps of Trevor Story and Anthony Rendon (not talent-wise, but injury-wise). There's is hope that he could string together some healthy seasons, but that it could just be a shorter career at some point. Back issues were the most concerning thing. 

 

[mvp 78]

They also talked about the system briefly and suggested a top 4 rather than a big 3. Campbell has really barged his way in there as he just keeps hitting. To them, he should take over the 2B spot going forward.

They were also higher on Teel than others and stated that he's a franchise catcher. May not be an All Star catcher, but someone that should be around for a long time. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They also talked about the system briefly and suggested a top 4 rather than a big 3. Campbell has really barged his way in there as he just keeps hitting. To them, he should take over the 2B spot going forward.

They were also higher on Teel than others and stated that he's a franchise catcher. May not be an All Star catcher, but someone that should be around for a long time. 

Catcher: check

Shortstop: check

Second base: check

Those might be our weakest areas, beyond pitching,- either on defense and or offense.

That leaves Anthony and the OF, with Jh Garcia & Bleis farther away, and maybe Campbell moving to the OF for good.

To me, I think Anthony is our best prospects, but with such a great need for pitching, and an OF or Duran-Rafaela-Abreu locked up for many years and Ref as the 4th OF'er, it makes sense to get a GM who likes Anthony as much as I do, to offer the world for him.

(World= TOTR pitcher)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Catcher: check

Shortstop: check

Second base: check

Those might be our weakest areas, beyond pitching,- either on defense and or offense.

That leaves Anthony and the OF, with Jh Garcia & Bleis farther away, and maybe Campbell moving to the OF for good.

To me, I think Anthony is our best prospects, but with such a great need for pitching, and an OF or Duran-Rafaela-Abreu locked up for many years and Ref as the 4th OF'er, it makes sense to get a GM who likes Anthony as much as I do, to offer the world for him.

(World= TOTR pitcher)

All-World OF: Anthony

Catcher: Teel

Second base: Campbell

Shortstop: ARIAS (MLB starter by the time Story's contract expires)

Trade ASAP before his value totally plummets to an org rife with pitching: Mayer...

... even if the return is a mere "Ceiling of mid-rotation starter" -- that would then give the entire current Red Sox farm system TWO arms of that status, along with Perales, according to recent prospect analysis.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All-World OF: Anthony

Catcher: Teel

Second base: Campbell

Shortstop: ARIAS (MLB starter by the time Story's contract expires)

Trade ASAP before his value totally plummets to an org rife with pitching: Mayer...

... even if the return is a mere "Ceiling of mid-rotation starter" -- that would then give the entire current Red Sox farm system TWO arms of that status, along with Perales, according to recent prospect analysis.

This makes sense, too, but counting on Story to bridge us to Arias is a long stretch. If I was sure Campbell was ML ready by May 2024, I'd feel better about trading Mayer. I also think a package headlined by Anthony brings back a much better pitcher than Mayer would. I guess adding Abreo to a Mayer package would help, a lot, so maybe...

[Hugh2]

If you think you need to trade Mayer now while his value is high because his injury risk depletes his value.  If there's any validity to that argument then his value is already down.  Other teams now what they're getting themselves into.  

I'd be lying if I was to say Im' not concerned with Mayers health, but I'm not super concerned either.  As of right now it seems to be more conditioning than any real big physical problems.  Could be due to never really spending time in a weight room.  If that hasn't changed.....it really needs to.