Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations

[moonslav59]

what position players has he spent on recently?

 

Devers began his contract, this year. It's the biggest contract in Sox history.

Yoshida's began, last year.

Story's began the year before.

 

We've seen 3 big contracts in 3 years.

 

The problem has been two-fold:

 

1. We don't spend big on pitching. (We've cut $40M from our rotation in 5 years, combined.)

 

2. Other teams have begun spending wildly more, and passed us in the rankings.

 

It's not only about JH not spending as much. I'll add a third point: our spending has not worked well (Story, Yoshida, Gio, Kluber, Richards, Barnes, Kike II...)

 

CB Tax numbers:

 

192 in 2017

239 in 2018

244 in 2019

185 in 2020

208 in 2021

236 in 2022

226 in 2023

(208 projected for 2024)

 

This does not look like some sort of massive budget cutting, to me, but again, I'm not supporting what JH has been doing, recently. We could have and should have spent more. Maybe we will agaiun: maybe not.

 

It does look like other will.

[moonslav59]

2026 if everything breaks right.

 

We do have numerous hopes- not just 1-2 promising pitching prospects, but it is worrisome we don't have nationally ranked pitching prospects. The one who was the highest was Perales, who was always hurt even before this latest TJS injury.

 

We do need a lot to go right- maybe not everything, but a lot.

[Randy Red Sox]

Devers began his contract, this year. It's the biggest contract in Sox history.

Yoshida's began, last year.

Story's began the year before.

 

We've seen 3 big contracts in 3 years.

 

The problem has been two-fold:

 

1. We don't spend big on pitching. (We've cut $40M from our rotation in 5 years, combined.)

 

2. Other teams have begun spending wildly more, and passed us in the rankings.

 

It's not only about JH not spending as much. I'll add a third point: our spending has not worked well (Story, Yoshida, Gio, Kluber, Richards, Barnes, Kike II...)

 

CB Tax numbers:

 

192 in 2017

239 in 2018

244 in 2019

185 in 2020

208 in 2021

236 in 2022

226 in 2023

(208 projected for 2024)

 

This does not look like some sort of massive budget cutting, to me, but again, I'm not supporting what JH has been doing, recently. We could have and should have spent more. Maybe we will agaiun: maybe not.

 

It does look like other will.

 

i already covered Devers in my original post on this. Story was to replace Bogaerts and was a horrible decision. Yoshida has been hit and miss and most on here want to get rid of him. he wasn't really that expensive either compared to many others.

[mvp 78]

We do have numerous hopes- not just 1-2 promising pitching prospects, but it is worrisome we don't have nationally ranked pitching prospects. The one who was the highest was Perales, who was always hurt even before this latest TJS injury.

 

We do need a lot to go right- maybe not everything, but a lot.

 

Part of the reason we don't have any guys there is that Bloom didn't focus on pitching guys with high ceilings. Breslow has changed tack, but it's going to take a bit to get his guys into the top 100.

[Randy Red Sox]

Part of the reason we don't have any guys there is that Bloom didn't focus on pitching guys with high ceilings. Breslow has changed tack, but it's going to take a bit to get his guys into the top 100.

 

the way to get quality P is not to trade or sign P who's former team identified as not very good. case in point is this scrub we have on the mound tonight.

Edited August 17, 2024 by Randy Red Sox

[moonslav59]

i already covered Devers in my original post on this. Story was to replace Bogaerts and was a horrible decision. Yoshida has been hit and miss and most on here want to get rid of him. he wasn't really that expensive either compared to many others.

 

You may not think $140M/6 is not expensive, but was the 4th highest FA contract given out in Sox history and $30M more than the next one (JD at $110M/5.)

 

Look, I'm not arguing JH is spending more than he was before, but he is still spending.

Edited August 17, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

You may not think $140M/6 is not expensive, but was the 4th highest FA contract given out in Sox history and $30M more than the next one (JD at $110M/5.)

 

Look, I'm not arguing JH is spending more than he was before, but he is still spending.

 

I think JH now has a sign in his office that says "Yes, I will consider your big contract proposal. Just make sure it's not a f***ing pitcher!"

[mvp 78]

I think JH now has a sign in his office that says "Yes, I will consider your big contract proposal. Just make sure it's not a f***ing pitcher!"

 

A lot of the fans still say “well he got us 4 rings.” How long until the majority of them turn?

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of the fans still say “well he got us 4 rings.” How long until the majority of them turn?

 

Hard to say. Also hard to say whether Henry even cares what the fans think any more. He told us we all suffer from unrealistic expectations.

 

At this point it sure looks like the only things that matter to Henry are the operating profit and the franchise value.

[Old Red]

A lot of the fans still say “well he got us 4 rings.” How long until the majority of them turn?

 

I believe the majority of fans have turned, and I believe the holdouts are getting fewer and fewer.

[vegasbob]

When will this thread morph into a "Fire Breslow" theme ? We can say that we don't know JH's actual limitations on Breslow's ability to compete for top talent, but if we look at Dithering Bloom's 3+ years and Craig's first season, it appears evident the rules are no big contracts for pitchers, fans love offense anyway.

 

Hope we all love 12-10 games because the Sox will be on both sides of many.

[Bellhorn04]

When will this thread morph into a "Fire Breslow" theme ? We can say that we don't know JH's actual limitations on Breslow's ability to compete for top talent, but if we look at Dithering Bloom's 3+ years and Craig's first season, it appears evident the rules are no big contracts for pitchers, fans love offense anyway.

 

Hope we all love 12-10 games because the Sox will be on both sides of many.

 

Craig will get his 4 years like all the others. Henry is a fair man.

[notin]

When will this thread morph into a "Fire Breslow" theme ? We can say that we don't know JH's actual limitations on Breslow's ability to compete for top talent, but if we look at Dithering Bloom's 3+ years and Craig's first season, it appears evident the rules are no big contracts for pitchers, fans love offense anyway.

 

Hope we all love 12-10 games because the Sox will be on both sides of many.

 

I’ll give Breslow a second chance, but going through his first season while ignoring starting pitching depth is a very bad start…

[Maxbialystock]

I think JH now has a sign in his office that says "Yes, I will consider your big contract proposal. Just make sure it's not a f***ing pitcher!"

 

I disagree with your language, but not your point. It is unarguable John Henry has soured on spending big bucks on starting pitchers. David Price and Chris Sale cured him of that.

 

And, frankly, I think he has a point. His latest CBO, Breslow, not only gave away Sale to the Braves, where he is almost a candidate for the Cy Young award this year, but is paying $17M of his salary. And he brought in Giolito for $38M for 2 years, but has yet to get any return on that investment.

 

The fix is to invest in pitching prospects, which I believe Breslow sort of did in this year's draft (except the first pick).

 

Meanwhile, the Sox hitting is right up there--ranked 5th in runs scored and 3d in team OPS--with almost no help from Breslow. Story hasn't panned out, but Devers, Duran, Abreu, et al, sure have. O'Neill has too, except for only playing 80 of 121 games to date. Next year we could see Teel, Mayer, Anthony, and, wait for it, Story. So it sure looks as though the Sox CBO's know how to find and develop hitters/lineup players.

 

I also like moonslav's point that, while the Sox payroll is no longer in the top three, it is also not, repeat, not chump change. Spotrac says it's $189M, ranked 11th. Here are some other payrolls and W-L records this season--

 

Mets, $316M (#1), 63-59.

Braves, $236M (#6), 64-58.

Twins, $130M (#19), 69-53

Royals, $119M (#20), 67-55

Orioles, $108M (# 22), 72-51

Guardians, $106M (# 23), 72-50

Rays, $89M (# 28), 60-61.

[moonslav59]

A lot of the fans still say “well he got us 4 rings.” How long until the majority of them turn?

 

I think it is pretty close to 50-50, now, but for me, I have another year or two in me.

 

I'm pumped up over our farm and young player base of everyday players.

 

I think we have a decent core of cost-controlled pitchers that look like more and better the last few years. The staff is still far from top tier, but it is not totally bad. To say we are 4 major pitching additions away from being "good enough" is not putting a feather in the cap of our staff, but that should not (emphasis on should) be an impossible task, this winter.

 

We are losing the contracts of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta, which total $31M AAV. We lose O'Neill's ($5.8M) and some partial payments for the rentals we just acquired and some scrubs, here and there, so maybe about $40M total. Assuming we spend no FA money on everyday players, we should be able to spend that $40M on pitching plus maybe another $10M and stay under the tax line. JH has shown he can set the bar lower, so this is no guarantee or projection on my behalf, but $50M should be there to spend, without paying a dime in taxes.

 

If you figure our minimum needs for building up the staff are these, how do we do it?

 

SP1 _____ ($23-27M AAV)

SP3 _____ ($9-13M)

Closer ____ ($12-16M)

RP2 _____ ($7-10M)

 

That is bare minimum needs, IMO and about $50-65M in costs, if added via free agency only. This also means no mistakes can be made in any of the 4 signings, unless someone like Hendriks, Fulmer, Slaten, Crawford, Bello, Criswell, Gio or ____ step it up, bigtime in 2025. I'm not going to count on that, although it is possible.

 

So, the money supposedly available is not far from what could be needed, but that is assuming perfection in acquisitions of FAs. In reality, we will swing and miss on 1-2 additions, minimum, so we really need to look at adding 6 quality pitchers or 4 high quality (lower risk) pitchers and 3-4 depth signings. Here is where the money comes into play: either JH has to agree to go over the tax line, even if for one "planned year," or he has to okay or insist on a blockbuster trade or two significant ones to fill 2-3 of those 6 slots needed. To me, this makes the most sense, and while I am a big fan of farm building and homegrown, inexpensive talent joining the 26 man roster, in the next 1-3 years, I think we have some bottlenecks at everyday positions and not only can afford to deal some away, but have to do it.

 

When I say I think trading Anthony makes the most sense, it is not out of any sense of not liking him or thinking he has the biggest chance at failing. I don't. I just see another LHB who plays OF, our strongest position in both quality and quantity and at low prices for the next 3-5 years. I just see our need at middle IF as much higher, and thus the need to keep Mayer and Campbell or Arias. I just see the catching position as being one of the hardest positions to keep a plus, and so keeping Teel makes more sense, to me.

 

Although middle IF is still a high need area, especially if we plan to keep Rafaela in CF FT and due to health concerns on Story and maybe even Grissom and Mayer, I do think we could look at trading Campbell, Arias or Meidroth (who also plays 3B.) I'd like to keep the RHB, Campbell or Jh garcia, but we have to give to get, and Arias is probably too far away to bring back his value in trade, this winter. (Same with Cespedes and Bleis.) This basically boils down to a trade package or two that involves:

 

Anthony

Campbell or Jh Garcia

Meidroth

Fitts, Sandlin, Perales, E R-C or Dobbins can be added, because we would be upgrading our pitching by adding a pitcher with 3+ years of team control.

Throw-ins could include: Hickey, Romero, Zanetello, Castro, Murphy, Wikelman and Jo Garcia

 

I think one big package or two moderate ones from this list can get us 1 TOTR pitcher or 2 very good ones.

 

[moonslav59]

When will this thread morph into a "Fire Breslow" theme ? We can say that we don't know JH's actual limitations on Breslow's ability to compete for top talent, but if we look at Dithering Bloom's 3+ years and Craig's first season, it appears evident the rules are no big contracts for pitchers, fans love offense anyway.

 

I do think the "limitations" JH placed on Bloom & Brez (and even DD in 2019) are a major factor in our GM's lack of winter success stories, but I'm not so sure JH is demanding the GM spend more on everyday players over pitchers. As bad as our pitching has been, it seems strange (and wrong) that we continually spent way more on everyday players than pitching, starting the day after the Sale and Nate contracts were inked. We let Kimbrell, Kelly, Porcello, ERod, Nate and then Sale's contracts go without coming close to replacing their cost with new blood pitching. No new pitchers were signed for more than 2 years:

 

$38.5M/2 Gio

$32M/2 Jansen

$17.5M/2 Martin

$8M/2 Diekman

 

Yes, we extended Bello ($55M/6), Whitlock ($18.75M/4) and spent $18.75M/2 on Barnes, but they were not additions or replacements.

 

When you look at these above contracts alongside the $10M/1 on Kluber and Richards, $10M/2 on Paxton, and $7M on Wacha, $6M on Perez and $5M on Perez and Hill, you have to shake your head in disbelief, knowing they had to know this was no where near enough to even stay even with those we lost.

 

Now, the money spent on everyday players after the Sale, Nate and Bogey extensions:

$314M/10 Devers

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida (+$10M in fees)

$24M/3 Kike (2 contracts added together)

 

This makes me shake my head at the GM choosing to make everyday players a higher priority. The differential is not even close. Sure, the pitching money was spread out more- on shorter and less expensive deals, but you get what you pay for, which was mostly crap.

 

We need to focus on more spending (JH) and more of a priority on pitching (Brez) as well as spending on the right pitchers (Brez.)

 

[Randy Red Sox]

I think it is pretty close to 50-50, now, but for me, I have another year or two in me.

 

I'm pumped up over our farm and young player base of everyday players.

 

I think we have a decent core of cost-controlled pitchers that look like more and better the last few years. The staff is still far from top tier, but it is not totally bad. To say we are 4 major pitching additions away from being "good enough" is not putting a feather in the cap of our staff, but that should not (emphasis on should) be an impossible task, this winter.

 

We are losing the contracts of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta, which total $31M AAV. We lose O'Neill's ($5.8M) and some partial payments for the rentals we just acquired and some scrubs, here and there, so maybe about $40M total. Assuming we spend no FA money on everyday players, we should be able to spend that $40M on pitching plus maybe another $10M and stay under the tax line. JH has shown he can set the bar lower, so this is no guarantee or projection on my behalf, but $50M should be there to spend, without paying a dime in taxes.

 

If you figure our minimum needs for building up the staff are these, how do we do it?

 

SP1 _____ ($23-27M AAV)

SP3 _____ ($9-13M)

Closer ____ ($12-16M)

RP2 _____ ($7-10M)

 

That is bare minimum needs, IMO and about $50-65M in costs, if added via free agency only. This also means no mistakes can be made in any of the 4 signings, unless someone like Hendriks, Fulmer, Slaten, Crawford, Bello, Criswell, Gio or ____ step it up, bigtime in 2025. I'm not going to count on that, although it is possible.

 

So, the money supposedly available is not far from what could be needed, but that is assuming perfection in acquisitions of FAs. In reality, we will swing and miss on 1-2 additions, minimum, so we really need to look at adding 6 quality pitchers or 4 high quality (lower risk) pitchers and 3-4 depth signings. Here is where the money comes into play: either JH has to agree to go over the tax line, even if for one "planned year," or he has to okay or insist on a blockbuster trade or two significant ones to fill 2-3 of those 6 slots needed. To me, this makes the most sense, and while I am a big fan of farm building and homegrown, inexpensive talent joining the 26 man roster, in the next 1-3 years, I think we have some bottlenecks at everyday positions and not only can afford to deal some away, but have to do it.

 

When I say I think trading Anthony makes the most sense, it is not out of any sense of not liking him or thinking he has the biggest chance at failing. I don't. I just see another LHB who plays OF, our strongest position in both quality and quantity and at low prices for the next 3-5 years. I just see our need at middle IF as much higher, and thus the need to keep Mayer and Campbell or Arias. I just see the catching position as being one of the hardest positions to keep a plus, and so keeping Teel makes more sense, to me.

 

Although middle IF is still a high need area, especially if we plan to keep Rafaela in CF FT and due to health concerns on Story and maybe even Grissom and Mayer, I do think we could look at trading Campbell, Arias or Meidroth (who also plays 3B.) I'd like to keep the RHB, Campbell or Jh garcia, but we have to give to get, and Arias is probably too far away to bring back his value in trade, this winter. (Same with Cespedes and Bleis.) This basically boils down to a trade package or two that involves:

 

Anthony

Campbell or Jh Garcia

Meidroth

Fitts, Sandlin, Perales, E R-C or Dobbins can be added, because we would be upgrading our pitching by adding a pitcher with 3+ years of team control.

Throw-ins could include: Hickey, Romero, Zanetello, Castro, Murphy, Wikelman and Jo Garcia

 

I think one big package or two moderate ones from this list can get us 1 TOTR pitcher or 2 very good ones.

 

 

which FA SP would you be in on this offseason?

[moonslav59]

which FA SP would you be in on this offseason?

 

So many SP'ers have options or opt outs, it's hard to know what the pool will be, but of course, Burnes has to be number 1. I think he would be worth one of those once a decade offers like we gave to Price.

Cole has an opt-out, as does Snell, but I'm not all that high on either.

Verlander on a 1 year deal?

Fried might be a more likely get.

Bieber is too risky.

Nate might be the guy we end up with.

 

IMO, trading for an ace and signing a #3 makes more sense.

[Bellhorn04]

So many SP'ers have options or opt outs, it's hard to know what the pool will be, but of course, Burnes has to be number 1. I think he would be worth one of those once a decade offers like we gave to Price.

Cole has an opt-out, as does Snell, but I'm not all that high on either.

Verlander on a 1 year deal?

Fried might be a more likely get.

Bieber is too risky.

Nate might be the guy we end up with.

 

IMO, trading for an ace and signing a #3 makes more sense.

 

If Eovaldi pitches 36 more innings this year his option for 2025 vests.

[mvp 78]

It could always be worse.

 

@JeffFletcherOCR

Sources; the Angels have reached an agreement on an extension for GM Perry Minasian.

[Maxbialystock]

I do think the "limitations" JH placed on Bloom & Brez (and even DD in 2019) are a major factor in our GM's lack of winter success stories, but I'm not so sure JH is demanding the GM spend more on everyday players over pitchers. As bad as our pitching has been, it seems strange (and wrong) that we continually spent way more on everyday players than pitching, starting the day after the Sale and Nate contracts were inked. We let Kimbrell, Kelly, Porcello, ERod, Nate and then Sale's contracts go without coming close to replacing their cost with new blood pitching. No new pitchers were signed for more than 2 years:

 

$38.5M/2 Gio

$32M/2 Jansen

$17.5M/2 Martin

$8M/2 Diekman

 

Yes, we extended Bello ($55M/6), Whitlock ($18.75M/4) and spent $18.75M/2 on Barnes, but they were not additions or replacements.

 

When you look at these above contracts alongside the $10M/1 on Kluber and Richards, $10M/2 on Paxton, and $7M on Wacha, $6M on Perez and $5M on Perez and Hill, you have to shake your head in disbelief, knowing they had to know this was no where near enough to even stay even with those we lost.

 

Now, the money spent on everyday players after the Sale, Nate and Bogey extensions:

$314M/10 Devers

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida (+$10M in fees)

$24M/3 Kike (2 contracts added together)

 

This makes me shake my head at the GM choosing to make everyday players a higher priority. The differential is not even close. Sure, the pitching money was spread out more- on shorter and less expensive deals, but you get what you pay for, which was mostly crap.

 

We need to focus on more spending (JH) and more of a priority on pitching (Brez) as well as spending on the right pitchers (Brez.)

 

 

Good stuff. Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Good stuff. Thanks.

 

Why make everyday players the focus of the draft, IFA and FA signings?