Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations

[notin]

And if he wasn't horrendous from 4/1 - 5/15.

 

I’m not so sure. His month to month improvement is really his best selling point.

 

But if the Sox have a ROY candidate, it’s Abreu…

[mvp 78]

I’m not so sure. His month to month improvement is really his best selling point.

 

But if the Sox have a ROY candidate, it’s Abreu…

 

That's not what people vote for with the ROY though. It's back of the card stats and whatever metrics and feelings they have. Nobody is going to say "oh, well he's been getting much better each month and should be better than these other guys going forward" when they are voting. The vote doesn't matter enough for voters to get into that detail.

[moonslav59]

That's not what people vote for with the ROY though. It's back of the card stats and whatever metrics and feelings they have. Nobody is going to say "oh, well he's been getting much better each month and should be better than these other guys going forward" when they are voting. The vote doesn't matter enough for voters to get into that detail.

 

I'm not sure how much fWAR factors into the vote, either.

 

In basic stats, Rafaela places:

1st RBI 58

1st Run 57

3rd in HRs 13

3rd in SBs 16

6th in SLG .417(3rd out of those with 400+ PAs)

 

.288 OBP is one of the worst

 

This does not look like ROY number, to me.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks, everyone, for a good discussion on Rafaela and Abreu vis-a-vis ROY. I had no idea and am delighted the Sox have two semi-viable candidates.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure how much fWAR factors into the vote, either.

 

In basic stats, Rafaela places:

1st RBI 58

1st Run 57

3rd in HRs 13

3rd in SBs 16

6th in SLG .417(3rd out of those with 400+ PAs)

 

.288 OBP is one of the worst

 

This does not look like ROY number, to me.

 

 

I bet WAR factors in more and more every year, especially now that you see it frequently on baseball broadcasts. I believe most active BBWAA are aware of WAR and other metrics at this point and are not just relying on baseball card stats.

 

If Ceddanne won ROY, he'd be the weakest offensive winner since Bobby Crosby in 2004 (bad rookie class).

[moonslav59]

Thanks, everyone, for a good discussion on Rafaela and Abreu vis-a-vis ROY. I had no idea and am delighted the Sox have two semi-viable candidates.

 

We certainly have one of the best rookie classes in MLB.

 

The "suspects" are now delivering and making a big impact.

 

Abreu

Rafaela

DHam

Slaten

Criswell

Booser

Horn, Sogard & Westbrook

 

FYI, last year, we "graduated Casas, Kelly, Bernardino, Murphy & Valdez.

2022: Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wong & Wink

2021: Houck, Whitlock & Dalbec

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure how much fWAR factors into the vote, either.

 

In basic stats, Rafaela places:

1st RBI 58

1st Run 57

3rd in HRs 13

3rd in SBs 16

6th in SLG .417(3rd out of those with 400+ PAs)

 

.288 OBP is one of the worst

 

This does not look like ROY number, to me.

 

 

23rd in BB/K which is pretty much last

20th in OBP

15th in wRC+

 

Ceddanne is a nice player, could win a GG in center, and easily can be stashed in the 9 hole on a team that is hitting overall.

 

But he will never be more than he is now if he can't learn an approach at the plate.

[moonslav59]

 

But he will never be more than he is now if he can't learn an approach at the plate.

 

What is he, now?

 

Do we go by the career or season stats?

 

Could he possibly keep these numbers up, without a major shift in approach?

.758 Since May 2nd (305 PAs)

.824 Since June 6th (197 PAs)

 

Somewhere in between? Like say, .775?

 

Personally, I think it will be hard to maintain anything over .750 with his approach, but we have seen some "undisciplined" players do okay to fine on O.

 

I'm hoping he can stay near .700-.725 and would be thrilled if he can do better.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's pretty amazing Rafaela has been able to post a .704 OPS in 419 PA's with a Dalbec-at-his-worst-esque 8 to 1 K/BB ratio.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's pretty amazing Rafaela has been able to post a .704 OPS in 419 PA's with a Dalbec-at-his-worst-esque 8 to 1 K/BB ratio.

 

But Ceddanne somehow puts the barrel to more pitches all over the zone; I don't know if there's a stat for fouls, but he definitely makes more weak two-strike contact than Bobby D. by lunging to stay alive -- sometimes he keeps it fair and beats it out, others times he gets another pitch and does damage.

 

Before anyone finds a metric to prove me wrong, maybe ROY voting will be more subjective this year. Who has made more of an impact on the team's success: a pretty solid rightfielder or a guy who stabilized the club by playing the two most important non-battery positions on the field?

[dgalehouse]

The same people who worried about Dever's approach are now complaining about Rafaela's approach. The same people who had no faith in Duran now are concerned about Rafaela. But they don't realize that the sheer athleticism of these guys is what drives this team. It is an entirely different team than what we have seen the last few years. Don't tinker with it.

[notin]

The same people who worried about Dever's approach are now complaining about Rafaela's approach. The same people who had no faith in Duran now are concerned about Rafaela. But they don't realize that the sheer athleticism of these guys is what drives this team. It is an entirely different team than what we have seen the last few years. Don't tinker with it.

 

 

All the talk is about his ROY candidacy, which is a meaningless award. Winning it doesn’t guarantee a bright future, and losing it doesn’t preclude one.

 

 

My take is he simply isn’t the best candidate on the Sox, let alone the American League…

[moonslav59]

It's pretty amazing Rafaela has been able to post a .704 OPS in 419 PA's with a Dalbec-at-his-worst-esque 8 to 1 K/BB ratio.

 

It's not easy, but I think some batters seem to pull it off...

 

Here are a few players with 1000+ career PAs, a BB/K of less than .21 and their career OPS:

0.16

.718 Tim Anderson

0.17

.730 Javier Baez

0.18

.735 S Dunston

0.19

.721 Schoop

.717 Chris Johnson

0.20

.762 Salvador Perez

 

Alonso Soriano had a BB/K of 0.28 and an OPS of .819.

Andres Galarraga 0.29/ .861

Matt Kemp 0.32/.821

D Bichette 0.33/.843

Jose Abreu 0.35/.833

JD Martinez 0.35/.869

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The same people who worried about Dever's approach are now complaining about Rafaela's approach. The same people who had no faith in Duran now are concerned about Rafaela. But they don't realize that the sheer athleticism of these guys is what drives this team. It is an entirely different team than what we have seen the last few years. Don't tinker with it.

 

Agreed. I also think a successful line-up has batters with various batting approaches that keep the opposing pitcher from finding a cookie-cutter groove.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela in 2024:

 

.586 first 203 PAs (53 Ks- 7BB) .252 BAbip

.814 last 216 PAs (52 Ks- 6BB) .377 BAbip

 

It does not look like he changed his approach, in terms of K'ing less or walking more, but look at the OPS differential!

 

Some might look at the BAbip and say he's been luckier, but I think he has been hitting the ball harder and more often.

.205 BA first 56 games (16 XBH)

.306 BA last 54 games (17 XBH)

[Hugh2]

What is he, now?

 

 

A good player?

 

At the plate, at least he makes contact, and despite his deficiencies, he seems to have the ability to make a clutch hit here and there.

 

He will add most of his value on defense, and that’s great. He’s a fine player, but he certainly ain’t no Duran or Devers.

 

Those guys never even came close to a 2% walk rate in the majors.

[moonslav59]

A good player?

 

At the plate, at least he makes contact, and despite his deficiencies, he seems to have the ability to make a clutch hit here and there.

 

He will add most of his value on defense, and that’s great. He’s a fine player, but he certainly ain’t no Duran or Devers.

 

Those guys never even came close to a 2% walk rate in the majors.

 

It is pretty hard to support a low BB like his.

 

Here is a look at the lowest BB% of all Red Sox players since 1972 with 500+ PAs and their OPS w Sox:

 

3.1% Nunez .694

3.2% Andre Dawson .738

3.3% Hillenbrand .749

3.3% Rafaela .698

3.6% Gutierrez .572

3.7% Benjamin .661

3.9% Carl Crawford .711

 

Best of the lowest BB%?

4.8% Tony Armas .768

5.2% Victorino .756

5.2% Dante Bichette .801

6.2% A Beltre .919

6.3% R Jefferson .868

6.4% Nomar .923

 

All of MLB:

3.2 Shawon Dunston .712 (lowest BB rate over .700 w 2,000+ career PAs)

3.5% Ricky Jordan .732

3.7% Hillenbrand .760

3.8% Sa Perez .763

4.5% Adam Jones .771 (Nobody is over .771 w a lower BB %)

 

You have to go up to 5% to find a player over .778 (Steve Garvey at .779)

.798 Ivan Rodriguez 5%

.835 Dante Bichette 5.2%

 

 

[mvp 78]

A good player?

 

At the plate, at least he makes contact, and despite his deficiencies, he seems to have the ability to make a clutch hit here and there.

 

He will add most of his value on defense, and that’s great. He’s a fine player, but he certainly ain’t no Duran or Devers.

 

Those guys never even came close to a 2% walk rate in the majors.

 

And the expectations shouldn't be Duran or Devers either. I'm fine if he's the 9th hitter going forward. I've said all along the fulltimhis job is to be the CFer playing GG defense hitting 750. I think we're seeing him on a little hot stretch which is expected since he was so cold at the start of the season. (The JBJ rollercoaster effect of "why can't he just hit THIS good all year?")

[Hugh2]

It is pretty hard to support a low BB like his.

 

Here is a look at the lowest BB% of all Red Sox players since 1972 with 500+ PAs and their OPS w Sox:

 

3.1% Nunez .694

3.2% Andre Dawson .738

3.3% Hillenbrand .749

3.3% Rafaela .698

3.6% Gutierrez .572

3.7% Benjamin .661

3.9% Carl Crawford .711

 

Best of the lowest BB%?

4.8% Tony Armas .768

5.2% Victorino .756

5.2% Dante Bichette .801

6.2% A Beltre .919

6.3% R Jefferson .868

6.4% Nomar .923

 

All of MLB:

3.2 Shawon Dunston .712 (lowest BB rate over .700 w 2,000+ career PAs)

3.5% Ricky Jordan .732

3.7% Hillenbrand .760

3.8% Sa Perez .763

4.5% Adam Jones .771 (Nobody is over .771 w a lower BB %)

 

You have to go up to 5% to find a player over .778 (Steve Garvey at .779)

.798 Ivan Rodriguez 5%

.835 Dante Bichette 5.2%

 

 

 

I'd also argue the difference between 3-5% is great. Even at 5% you can't find many players with plus offense.

 

But even the guys who had decent numbers on your list did so on down years. Andre Dawsons 3.2% came at his age 39 season and is below his career 5.5% which isn't great either. Beltre career bb% was about 7%, more than twice Ceddanne's and he did so with a 14.3% K rate, while Rafaela does so striking out 25% of the time.

 

If Rafaela could even get his number up to 5% and develop plus power he could be the exception. I just don't see 40 homeruns in him.

 

He's fine, theres' nothing wrong with who he is, he's just not going to be that elite player. Unless his approach drastically changes. And changing your approach at the plate is one of the hardest things to do in all of baseball.

 

people improve their defense, they change their swing and grow into more power, they add pitches, they learn to hit a breaking ball.....but learning to not chase and be patient at the plate is a rarity. Changing an approach might be one of the hardest things to do in baseball.

[Hugh2]

And the expectations shouldn't be Duran or Devers either. I'm fine if he's the 9th hitter going forward. I've said all along the fulltimhis job is to be the CFer playing GG defense hitting 750. I think we're seeing him on a little hot stretch which is expected since he was so cold at the start of the season. (The JBJ rollercoaster effect of "why can't he just hit THIS good all year?")

 

I agree, he never should of been compared to those players. I think comparisons are unfair to begin with all around.

 

Right now he's a .704 OPS player, yes he's hot, but he's going to have cold streaks too. I'm not sure he can even be a .750 guy, I'd take .700 all day with his defense though.

[Bellhorn04]

The average MLB CFer has an OPS of .692 in 2024.

 

So yeah, .700 would be a logical target for Little Raf.

[moonslav59]

I'd also argue the difference between 3-5% is great. Even at 5% you can't find many players with plus offense.

 

But even the guys who had decent numbers on your list did so on down years. Andre Dawsons 3.2% came at his age 39 season and is below his career 5.5% which isn't great either. Beltre career bb% was about 7%, more than twice Ceddanne's and he did so with a 14.3% K rate, while Rafaela does so striking out 25% of the time.

 

If Rafaela could even get his number up to 5% and develop plus power he could be the exception. I just don't see 40 homeruns in him.

 

He's fine, theres' nothing wrong with who he is, he's just not going to be that elite player. Unless his approach drastically changes. And changing your approach at the plate is one of the hardest things to do in all of baseball.

 

people improve their defense, they change their swing and grow into more power, they add pitches, they learn to hit a breaking ball.....but learning to not chase and be patient at the plate is a rarity. Changing an approach might be one of the hardest things to do in baseball.

 

To be honest, I was actually surprised at how few batters had OPS over .700 or .800 with these selected low BB%s.

 

Most of the successful high K players in MLB history, were able to walk at over a 7 or 8% rate.

 

When I think of great batters known as "free-swingers," Vlad comes to mind, but he was not a big K guys and did walk over 8% of the time.

 

It's weird that Bobby Dee's best season (2021) saw his lowest BB% at 6.2%, and his K rate of 34.4% was just below his career 36.8%.

 

Middlebrooks had that awesome half season in 2012 with a 4.6 BB%, which was below his career 5.2%, and a K% of %24.5%, again just barely better than his career 26.3%.

 

That being said, I don't see rafaela as that type of hitter. The low BB% of 3.3 is concerning. So is the 26% K rate, but I think he will be fine on O.

[Bellhorn04]

As much hope as I have for Craig, with the way our pitching is falling apart, he could still get a failing grade for his first season. The pitching was the thing he and Bailey were supposed to fix. After a very promising start it's back to the same old mess, with very little in the way of positives going forward.

[moonslav59]

As much hope as I have for Craig, with the way our pitching is falling apart, he could still get a failing grade for his first season. The pitching was the thing he and Bailey were supposed to fix. After a very promising start it's back to the same old mess, with very little in the way of positives going forward.

 

Looking "forward," I feel...

 

Less confident than I did in March on:

Bello

Crawford

Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell

 

About the same:

Giolito

Whitlock

Winckowski

Hendriks & Fulmer (although I expect more)

 

More confident:

Houck

Criswell

Slaten

Kelly

Booser

 

What hurts the "going forward" the most, to me, is how we replace Jansen, Pivetta and Martin, if the budget does not expand. That's more on JH than Brez. (We also need to replace Paxton, Garcia & Sims.)

 

The "return" of Gio, Henriks, Fulmer, Murphy, Slaten will only make a small dent on the needs.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

While true, I think even you would have to say Rafaela has exceeded expectations on offense, this year. (maybe not on D.)

 

He had serious issues with high K rates and high chase rates all through the minors, and we knew they must have been working with him to improve in that area.

 

I also think we have to take into account his awful start to the season, at the plate.

 

.463 on APR 26

.597 as late as JUN 5!

 

Here is one way to breakdown his season:

 

.463 in 97 PAs to start the season

.710 from 4/27 to 6/5 (125 PAs) & Under .600 at the 222 PA mark of the season is a significant sample size

.824 in his last 197 PAs, which is a bigger sample size than the two above. It's not definitive, but it is pretty good and growing longer.

 

Another view:

.586 first 203 PAs

.814 last 216 PAs

 

We don't know what he will do, going forward, and he will have to make adjustments to the adjustments league pitchers make on approaching him.

 

It's easy to say, "He needs to learn to be disciplined and not chase so many bad pitches," but I'm not so sure that is the solutions. For one thing, we are not sure he can do that without messing up his swing and mindset. I'm not comparing him to Devers, here, but many wanted him to change his approach, too, and of course all batters have made adjustments over their careers, but do not think he has made any major adjustments to his approach. He still swings at some pitches outside the zone, and some go for homers. I'm just not sure "change" is always a solution.

 

That being said, I wish he could/would be more selective, but if that changes his approach, radically, it might not be for the good.

 

I'd be happy with .700 and fewer unforced errors from Rafaela, going forward. .725 to .750 is now above the mean in MLB, and would be very nice from him. .750+ would be great.

 

in another one of your posts that I can't locate right now you mention ed Michael Wacha who BTW is 9-6 right now with a 3.50 era. I never did understand why we didn't resign him. He would have fit in under this budget

[Randy Red Sox]

Does anyone know if Mr Tightwads John Henry even attends the home games? if he does I would suspect he would have a soundproof booth. I am pretty sure there would be no shortage of fans letting them know what they think of him these days.

[moonslav59]

in another one of your posts that I can't locate right now you mention ed Michael Wacha who BTW is 9-6 right now with a 3.50 era. I never did understand why we didn't resign him. He would have fit in under this budget

 

There were many pitchers signed, last winter, at reasonable deals that are doing very well.

 

Some, that many of us liked, such as Monty, have not done well. Others like Lugo, Imanaga, Flaherty and several more would have been great gets, by Brez, but instead, we got Gio.

 

Gio cost more than Kluber, Richards and Wacha, combined.

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like it's gonna be deja vu for Craig all over again this offseason, assuring the fans that they're going to address the pitching and be aggressive about it...

[moonslav59]

Looks like it's gonna be deja vu for Craig all over again this offseason, assuring the fans that they're going to address the pitching and be aggressive about it...

 

They will try to sell the idea that Gio, Henriks and Fulmer were the big additions for 2025.

 

The sham will go on.

[Bellhorn04]

They will try to sell the idea that Gio, Henriks and Fulmer were the big additions for 2025.

 

The sham will go on.

 

Hell, we'll probably get some more lectures from Kennedy and Henry.