A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

The new plan is to have a great rotation and a bad bullpen. They figure that way you will at least watch the first 5 to 6 innings…

 

They'd have to acquire good starting pitchers first. I haven't seen them attempt to do that. Seems like they are just thinking of clearing out two guys that won't be here next season and one guy who was overrated in '22. Sox have a ton of bullpen depth because that is all they are able to develop.

[mvp 78]

Crag has apparently been tasked with fixing the roster and shaving the payroll at the same time. It's working great so far.

 

Bloom would always have a weird hole or two in the roster. At least I don't see that this year? I know the rotation could be better, but that's been the case for a while. This year there isn't a gaping hole at SS or CF or 1B or wherever that we've seen recently.

[mvp 78]

I think you have to be. The point isn’t how good the player is but rather how invested the team is in the player…

 

If they were invested in Raffy, they'd be building around him rather than wasting a few years while he's under contract.

[moonslav59]

Crag has apparently been tasked with fixing the roster and shaving the payroll at the same time. It's working great so far.

 

On paper, it looks like we have about an equally bad rotation, and the pen is about the same.

 

The defense should improve, significantly.

 

The offense may be about the same, but a lot will depend on Brez's guy, Grissom, young player improvement and the health of Story.

 

The farm looks marginally better with the additions of Fitts, Campbell, Weissert and a couple others.

 

I think time will tell, but this looks eerily like Bloom's first year or two.

 

The budget restrictions prevent filling all the holes, at once, unless the CBO decides to spread the finances thinly, and we likely get mediocrity at every hole we try to fix.

 

At first glance, the $19M spent on Gio looks like a change in philosophy, but when you subtract the $10M saved on the Sale trade and the loss of Paxton's $4M deal, we've spent less on the rotation than in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They'd have to acquire good starting pitchers first. I haven't seen them attempt to do that. Seems like they are just thinking of clearing out two guys that won't be here next season and one guy who was overrated in '22. Sox have a ton of bullpen depth because that is all they are able to develop.

 

Hey -- I read all the prospect ratings on the other thread, and we do have two (2) pitchers in the entire system whose ceilings project to be mid-rotation starters!

[mvp 78]

On paper, it looks like we have about an equally bad rotation, and the pen is about the same.

 

The defense should improve, significantly.

 

The offense may be about the same, but a lot will depend on Brez's guy, Grissom, young player improvement and the health of Story.

 

The farm looks marginally better with the additions of Fitts, Campbell, Weissert and a couple others.

 

I think time will tell, but this looks eerily like Bloom's first year or two.

 

The budget restrictions prevent filling all the holes, at once, unless the CBO decides to spread the finances thinly, and we likely get mediocrity at every hole we try to fix.

 

At first glance, the $19M spent on Gio looks like a change in philosophy, but when you subtract the $10M saved on the Sale trade and the loss of Paxton's $4M deal, we've spent less on the rotation than in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

 

On paper, the rotation is slightly worse and only gets better if the pitchers improve under Bailey.

 

The defense should be good because Masa will be at DH more, Story has more SS reps and potential Rafaela in CF.

 

Offense looks worse due to loss of Duvall, Turner and Verdugo. Need improvements from Story and Masa to offset the losses.

[mvp 78]

Hey -- I read all the prospect ratings on the other thread, and we do have two (2) pitchers in the entire system whose ceilings project to be mid-rotation starters!

 

And I don't think either will be impactful MLB starters due to control issues.

[moonslav59]

On paper, the rotation is slightly worse and only gets better if the pitchers improve under Bailey.

 

The defense should be good because Masa will be at DH more, Story has more SS reps and potential Rafaela in CF.

 

Offense looks worse due to loss of Duvall, Turner and Verdugo. Need improvements from Story and Masa to offset the losses.

 

The defense at 2B will be better, even if Reyes starts 140 games.

 

Gio should get 30 GS to help replace the 39 by Sale & Paxton.

 

Pivetta should take the other 9. I think it is close to even.

 

You mention the 3 biggest losses on O, and it is very significant, but Dugo's O was not great, and the addition of all the PAs lost by guys like Kike, Arroyo and others needs to be factored in, too.

 

We added O'Neill, Grissom and should see more PAs from Story, Casas and Abreu. I'm fine with saying the O might get slightly worse, but to me, it looks close to the same.

 

I'm thinking Yoshida will be better rested and may not fall off a cliff, like he did, last September. I think Grissom's O is way better than our clown carousel at 2B, last year. I think all this should come close to making up for the loss of JT and a 4 months of Duvall.

[moonslav59]

Hey -- I read all the prospect ratings on the other thread, and we do have two (2) pitchers in the entire system whose ceilings project to be mid-rotation starters!

 

With expected jumps by one or two far away prospects, maybe we can get that number to 3!

[Dipre]

On paper, the rotation is slightly worse and only gets better if the pitchers improve under Bailey.

 

The defense should be good because Masa will be at DH more, Story has more SS reps and potential Rafaela in CF.

 

Offense looks worse due to loss of Duvall, Turner and Verdugo. Need improvements from Story and Masa to offset the losses.

 

There will likely be year-to-year improvements from Casas and Wong as well.

[notin]

They'd have to acquire good starting pitchers first. I haven't seen them attempt to do that. Seems like they are just thinking of clearing out two guys that won't be here next season and one guy who was overrated in '22. Sox have a ton of bullpen depth because that is all they are able to develop.

 

Nobody said the execution of the plan was done properly...

[mvp 78]

The defense at 2B will be better, even if Reyes starts 140 games.

 

Gio should get 30 GS to help replace the 39 by Sale & Paxton.

 

Pivetta should take the other 9. I think it is close to even.

 

You mention the 3 biggest losses on O, and it is very significant, but Dugo's O was not great, and the addition of all the PAs lost by guys like Kike, Arroyo and others needs to be factored in, too.

 

We added O'Neill, Grissom and should see more PAs from Story, Casas and Abreu. I'm fine with saying the O might get slightly worse, but to me, it looks close to the same.

 

I'm thinking Yoshida will be better rested and may not fall off a cliff, like he did, last September. I think Grissom's O is way better than our clown carousel at 2B, last year. I think all this should come close to making up for the loss of JT and a 4 months of Duvall.

 

Verdugo wasn't great, but he was a 98 wRC+. He is being replaced by O'Neilll and some younger guys that we don't really know what to expect from.

[mvp 78]

There will likely be year-to-year improvements from Casas and Wong as well.

 

Casas, yes. Wong, no.

 

I think we've seen what we've seen from Wong. He's athletic and has a strong arm and pop time, but his framing and blocking sucks. If he's going to continue to not hit, he should be replaced. The tools he carries behind the plate show me why he was initially projected as a UTIL guy, but his bat just isn't there to carry that position.

[notin]

Casas, yes. Wong, no.

 

I think we've seen what we've seen from Wong. He's athletic and has a strong arm and pop time, but his framing and blocking sucks. If he's going to continue to not hit, he should be replaced. The tools he carries behind the plate show me why he was initially projected as a UTIL guy, but his bat just isn't there to carry that position.

 

Wong has the potential to be the best backup catcher in the league. But that is about it...

[moonslav59]

Verdugo wasn't great, but he was a 98 wRC+. He is being replaced by O'Neilll and some younger guys that we don't really know what to expect from.

 

I think we can close to 98 with O'Neill & Abreu, but I can understand thinking it is unlikely we match it.

[moonslav59]

Wong has the potential to be the best backup catcher in the league. But that is about it...

 

The state of catching is pretty bad, these days. I think Wong's ceiling is near an average starting catcher.

 

Catchers often reach their peak value from ages 29-31, some like VTek, around 30-34.

 

BTW, at age 27, placed 25th in fWAR at +0.7, last season. bWAR was more generous (+1.9.) In 2023, you needed a 1.2 fWAR to be in the middle tier (#11-20th.) I think Wong can reach that.

 

He may not, but he can.

 

Also, McGuire had a 1.3 fWAR in 2022 and placed 19th. If we can get both catchers to be somewhere in the 15-20 range, we'll be okay.

 

My guess is Teel will boot McGuire off the roster in a year or two.

 

[mvp 78]

Wong has the potential to be the best backup catcher in the league. But that is about it...

 

O'Neill should match it, but his injury history shows he'll be out for half the season. Undetermined what Abreu will do for act 2.

[mvp 78]

The state of catching is pretty bad, these days. I think Wong's ceiling is near an average starting catcher.

 

Catchers often reach their peak value from ages 29-31, some like VTek, around 30-34.

 

BTW, at age 27, placed 25th in fWAR at +0.7, last season. bWAR was more generous (+1.9.) In 2023, you needed a 1.2 fWAR to be in the middle tier (#11-20th.) I think Wong can reach that.

 

He may not, but he can.

 

Also, McGuire had a 1.3 fWAR in 2022 and placed 19th. If we can get both catchers to be somewhere in the 15-20 range, we'll be okay.

 

My guess is Teel will boot McGuire off the roster in a year or two.

 

 

For catchers above 200 PA's, both he and McGuire were outside the top 30. The average starting catcher would be a 2 fWAR guy like Jansen in TOR. Only one catcher had 2 fWAR last year with less than 97 wRC+. Wong just k's too much and bb's too little for a guy without much in game pop.

[cp176]

The defense this year may at some point prove to better than what we saw last year but I'd be very surprised if it becomes what we think of as good. If Story stays healthy, it should at least be better at short. We all hope that it will be better for sure. Kind of a low bar to hope over when you think of last year.

[mvp 78]

The defense this year may at some point prove to better than what we saw last year but I'd be very surprised if it becomes what we think of as good. If Story stays healthy, it should at least be better at short. We all hope that it will be better for sure. Kind of a low bar to hope over when you think of last year.

 

The last time the Sox had a top 10 defense: 2014.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mazz is just going OFF on the Sox today... in one 10-minute rant, he repeated his delivery more than the Red Sox' entire starting notation:

 

"They did nothing this offseason! Nothing! NOTHING!! Not. Even. Trying! NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!"

[moonslav59]

For catchers above 200 PA's, both he and McGuire were outside the top 30. The average starting catcher would be a 2 fWAR guy like Jansen in TOR. Only one catcher had 2 fWAR last year with less than 97 wRC+. Wong just k's too much and bb's too little for a guy without much in game pop.

 

I see Wong at 25th and McGuire did not have 200 PAs as a catcher:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&filter=&players=0&qual=200&season1=2023&season=2023&type=8&month=35&pagenum=1&pageitems=50

 

If you enter the "primary position," yes, they both place just outside the top 30.

 

If you bring the PAs to 300, to get the top 30 catchers, Wong places 23rd.

[moonslav59]

O'Neill should match it, but his injury history shows he'll be out for half the season. Undetermined what Abreu will do for act 2.

 

So, O'Neill might miss close to the same time Duvall missed.

[moonslav59]

The defense this year may at some point prove to better than what we saw last year but I'd be very surprised if it becomes what we think of as good. If Story stays healthy, it should at least be better at short. We all hope that it will be better for sure. Kind of a low bar to hope over when you think of last year.

 

It might get close to average, but I doubt it reaches good status.

[Nick]

Someone who is considered a genetic freak of nature should be able to stay on the field.

 

Curious to see what O'Neill does.

[Nick]

I don't get the negativity on Wong.

 

Is he a finished product? 5 years of team control. Maybe he"ll improve

[dgalehouse]

O'Neill is not a pitcher or a catcher, but he is already down in Ft.Myers and pumping iron.

[sk7326]

Statcast Team OAA - the data starts in 2018

 

Sox ranks

 

2018: 11th

2019: 12th

2020: 20th

2021: 30th

2022: 22nd

2023: 30th

 

There is a fair argument that 81 games at Fenway means you only really need the defense to be "good enough" - and that some bat over glove compromises are fine. But we are currently well, well, below that threshold.

[moonslav59]

Statcast Team OAA - the data starts in 2018

 

Sox ranks

 

2018: 11th

2019: 12th

2020: 20th

2021: 30th

2022: 22nd

2023: 30th

 

There is a fair argument that 81 games at Fenway means you only really need the defense to be "good enough" - and that some bat over glove compromises are fine. But we are currently well, well, below that threshold.

 

Every park has the same SS and 2B dimensions. The SS at Fenway even has to deal with bounces off the foul territory wall to them.

 

Catching at Fenway is easier, since the back stop is closer.

 

RF is way more difficult than most parks.

 

CF is quirky and maybe more difficult.

 

LF is "easier," but learning the wall can be tough.

 

To me, our defense looked as bad as I have ever seen it, last year. When Story played almost FT, it improved, but was still awful.

 

SS was 30th, until Story moved it up a few notches.

2B was worst, and now we look to have an average defender who might become plus, someday.

1B & 3B have the same guys, so I'll leave that as a push, despite the idea that Casas improved over the year and could be better.

C should improve, slightly as Wong and McGuire near the normal age of catcher maturation.

OF is tough to call, since we don't really know what the alignment will be. Less Yoshida in LF maybe cancels out less Dugo in RF. The more we see Duran in LF, instead of CF, the better our OF D will be. The more Rafaela plays, the better the D is. Abreu is largely unknown, but looks okay, at worst. O'Neill in LF is a plus- in RF, probably not as good as Dugo.

 

I think we move up from 30th to 21-24. With the right guys playing, maybe we can reach the middle tier.

 

[moonslav59]

I don't get the negativity on Wong.

 

Is he a finished product? 5 years of team control. Maybe he"ll improve

 

When in the minors, many felt he might not stick at catcher. He seems to have improved, a lot. He's really good in some areas, but below average in others. To me, the big thing is how he can or cannot get the most out of our staff. With so much turnover, it's hard to establish any sort of relationship that can grow.

 

If Teel ends up as good as many think he will, Wong could end up one of the leagues best back-up catchers.