A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com still has us acquiring a SP'er and RF'er, but I have my doubts. Maybe we add a cheap OF'er, but the talk of Soler, Pham and even Duvall don't seem to fit, unless we move O'Neill to RF. I doubt we add any SP'er, but I must admit, I still have hopes.

 

Here is the 26, as I see it, right now- with no more additions:

 

SP: Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck

RP: Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino, Slaten (Rule 5) & Mata (out-of-options)

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas (with not known emergency game day back-up)

2B: Grissom & Reyes

3B: Devers

SS: Story (Rafaela)

LF: O'Neill & Refsnyder (Duran)

CF: Duran & Rafaela

RF: Abreu (O'Neill)

DH: Yoshida

 

Possible line-up:

1. L Duran

2. L Devers

3. R Story

4. L Casas

5. R O'Neill

6. L Yoshida

7. R Grissom

8. L Abreu/ R Rafaela

9. R Wong/ L McGuire

 

We need a whole lot to go right for this to be a WC team, but there is a lot of talent and potential talent, here.

 

Adding a pitcher like Monty would be a huge step forward. Adding Clevinger, instead, would be a nice step. Adding both seems impossible. Adding an OF'er makes sense, but not another LF'er, PLEASE! Even if trading Duran, I'd still prefer a RF'er or CF'er, but if Duran lands us a solid SP'er, it would be a step forward, hopefully.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

soxprospects.com still has us acquiring a SP'er and RF'er, but I have my doubts. Maybe we add a cheap OF'er, but the talk of Soler, Pham and even Duvall don't seem to fit, unless we move O'Neill to RF. I doubt we add any SP'er, but I must admit, I still have hopes.

 

Here is the 26, as I see it, right now- with no more additions:

 

SP: Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck

RP: Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino, Slaten (Rule 5) & Mata (out-of-options)

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas (with not known emergency game day back-up)

2B: Grissom & Reyes

3B: Devers

SS: Story (Rafaela)

LF: O'Neill & Refsnyder (Duran)

CF: Duran & Rafaela

RF: Abreu (O'Neill)

DH: Yoshida

 

Possible line-up:

1. L Duran

2. L Devers

3. R Story

4. L Casas

5. R O'Neill

6. L Yoshida

7. R Grissom

8. L Abreu/ R Rafaela

9. R Wong/ L McGuire

 

We need a whole lot to go right for this to be a WC team, but there is a lot of talent and potential talent, here.

 

Adding a pitcher like Monty would be a huge step forward. Adding Clevinger, instead, would be a nice step. Adding both seems impossible. Adding an OF'er makes sense, but not another LF'er, PLEASE! Even if trading Duran, I'd still prefer a RF'er or CF'er, but if Duran lands us a solid SP'er, it would be a step forward, hopefully.

 

 

 

i do NOT want the Sox to sign Montgomery unless it is a short term deal which he is very unlikely to accept. At his age i would be very concerned with signing him to a 5-7 year deal.

[moonslav59]

i do NOT want the Sox to sign Montgomery unless it is a short term deal which he is very unlikely to accept. At his age i would be very concerned with signing him to a 5-7 year deal.

 

He's not getting 6-7 years. 5 is too much, but you always have to give 1-2 more years than wanted.

 

I'd try hard for an overpay on 3 years, but if 4 years brings down the AAV, fine.

 

I'd go 5, if the price was right- like $110M/5 or even $115-maybe $120.

 

BTW, he just turned 31. He has not had a long career of maxing out on IP, so he is not an early breakdown candidate.

 

5 years bring shim to 35 for his final year.

Edited February 10, 2024 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

He's not getting 6-7 years. 5 is too much, but you always have to give 1-2 more years than wanted.

 

I'd try hard for an overpay on 3 years, but if 4 years brings down the AAV, fine.

 

I'd go 5, if the price was right- like $110M/5 or even $115-maybe $120.

 

BTW, he just turned 31. He has not had a long career of maxing out on IP, so he is not an early breakdown candidate.

 

5 years bring shim to 35 for his final year.

 

Still too long. The ABSOLUTE max I sign him is 4 years at 25per and that won’t get it done. He is at BEST a #2 but probably more of a #3 going forward as he has a fair bit of miles on his wing. I’d rather for Snell after May 1st. He is a better P IMO

[moonslav59]

Still too long. The ABSOLUTE max I sign him is 4 years at 25per and that won’t get it done. He is at BEST a #2 but probably more of a #3 going forward as he has a fair bit of miles on his wing. I’d rather for Snell after May 1st. He is a better P IMO

 

He's better but more fragile.

 

Monty at 35 could still be good. If he's not, one bad year would still make the deal worth it. 2 might not.

[moonslav59]

We finally made a huge move:

 

Sox sign 37 y/o Lucas Luetge!

[Randy Red Sox]

We finally made a huge move:

 

Sox sign 37 y/o Lucas Luetge!

 

 

like I told you-80 % chance we sign a M/L scrub or two

[Randy Red Sox]

We finally made a huge move:

 

Sox sign 37 y/o Lucas Luetge!

 

WTF is that???

[Hugh2]

like I told you-80 % chance we sign a M/L scrub or two

 

80% chance?

 

That’s not much of a prediction.

 

It’s closer to 100% for every team.

[Bellhorn04]

We finally made a huge move:

 

Sox sign 37 y/o Lucas Luetge!

 

Add another ex-Yankee pitcher to the list.

[Bellhorn04]

80% chance?

 

That’s not much of a prediction.

 

It’s closer to 100% for every team.

 

I thought Randy meant 80% chance that's ALL we sign.

[notin]

Add another ex-Yankee pitcher to the list.

 

Not exactly the LH ex-Yankee we wanted…

[dgalehouse]

Luetge pitched pretty well for the Yanks. But he is getting older and has probably seen his best days. Not a big deal anyway.

[moonslav59]

I think the Fulmer signing has a better chance at making a difference, granted not until 2025, than the Luetge signing.

[Randy Red Sox]

I thought Randy meant 80% chance that's ALL we sign.

 

thank you

[notin]

Luetge pitched pretty well for the Yanks. But he is getting older and has probably seen his best days. Not a big deal anyway.

 

Minor league deal. There is no such thing as a bad minor league deal…

[mvp 78]

Minor league deal. There is no such thing as a bad minor league deal…

 

Matt Dermody?

[notin]

Matt Dermody?

 

They didn’t have to call him up…

[mvp 78]

@JustinMLB

Steamer projects Yoshida to be a 120 wRC+ hitter in 2024

 

.292/.362/.461 with a .354 wOBA

 

18-20 homers as well. That would be tremendous.

 

This would be similar to how Seiya Suzuki and Matsui both had second year bounce backs that I've noted before. Their bounce backs were a little higher than this projection, but I'd take it.

[moonslav59]

@JustinMLB

Steamer projects Yoshida to be a 120 wRC+ hitter in 2024

 

.292/.362/.461 with a .354 wOBA

 

18-20 homers as well. That would be tremendous.

 

This would be similar to how Seiya Suzuki and Matsui both had second year bounce backs that I've noted before. Their bounce backs were a little higher than this projection, but I'd take it.

 

That seems very reasonable. Of course, he could do worse, but I think he might even do better.

 

It is a huge cultural shift moving from Japan to the USA. It's not just about the language, either. The longer season and slight differences in how the game is played takes time to get adjusted, as well.

 

It's been warm here in Texas. The spring juices are flowing. I'm starting to feel better about the chances many of our players improve, this year, even players Yoshida's age.

 

We have a lot of players approaching prime or right smack in the middle of it. In theory, we should expect upticks more than downticks on many of our key players.

 

We do have a couple key players, post prime (Jansen & Martin,) but almost everyone else is in prime or on the upside of the curve.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to get excited when you're projected to win 80 games, though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That seems very reasonable. Of course, he could do worse, but I think he might even do better.

 

It is a huge cultural shift moving from Japan to the USA. It's not just about the language, either. The longer season and slight differences in how the game is played takes time to get adjusted, as well.

 

 

Good points. Gotta think there are lots of adjustments we take for granted, like menus and diets affecting mind-body connections.

 

Probably other reasons we don't even know about that makes Japan the country with the third-longest lifespans, compared to the USA... We're #47!

[moonslav59]

2024 Sox

 

Pre-Prime:

23: Grissom, Rafaela

24: Casas, Bello, Abreu (Mata)

25: Winckowski (EValdez, Murphy)

26: (Slaten, Campbell)

 

Prime:

27: Devers, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Wong (Criswell)

28: O'Neill, McGuire (Weissert, Kelly, Dalbec)

29: Giolito

30: Yoshida, Schreiber, Reyes

31: Story, Pivetta

 

Post Prime:

32: Bernardino, Refsnyder

36: Jansen

37: Martin

 

15 of our top 17 players are pre or in prime.

 

[notin]

It's hard to get excited when you're projected to win 80 games, though.

 

I'm still somewhat optimisitc on this team, but only if they can stay in competition and actually not run up the white flag in July for no reason. Projections are meaningless. What was Texas, coming off a 68 win season, projected to win last year?

[moonslav59]

I'm still somewhat optimisitc on this team, but only if they can stay in competition and actually not run up the white flag in July for no reason. Projections are meaningless. What was Texas, coming off a 68 win season, projected to win last year?

 

They made a few winter moves, though.

[notin]

They made a few winter moves, though.

 

What was their biggest addition? Eovaldi?

[moonslav59]

What was their biggest addition? Eovaldi?

 

Well, Nate is better than anything we added.

 

They also added heaney and Wil Smith, then traded for Monty in July.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What was their biggest addition? Eovaldi?

 

Probably, he only won five games in the postseason, and the Rangers won all six that he started.

 

Texas also made some summer moves -- like trading for Montgomery, who won also won key games in the playoffs.

 

Not that the Red Sox couldn't make a big trade at the deadline -- which they've only done never so far in the Bloom Era.

 

The Rangers also made a big fall move -- promoting Evan Carter. That's the kind of move Red Sox fans are told is the one reason to keep watching...

[notin]

Well, Nate is better than anything we added.

 

They also added heaney and Wil Smith, then traded for Monty in July.

 

No one made projections with Montgomery in mind. And if the Rangers didn't get out to a good enough start, they don't go out and get Montgomery.

 

While Eovaldi is a good pitcher, is he really a guy you look at and think "he can take this 68 win team to a title in one year"?

 

Heaney is the more-frequently injured version of Eovaldi.

 

So do the Sox have any pitvher who is as good as a healthy Eovaldi? I think they do have one in the rotation already...

[mvp 78]

It's hard to get excited when you're projected to win 80 games, though.

 

Could I sell you on 82 games?