A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

I could never. I named my first dog after him!

 

RIP to a real one!

 

 

 

Weird. I named my dog after Bob Stanley. I called him “Choker”..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some candor from Alex Speier today: "the overall state of farm systems through the AL East suggests that the continuing emergence of a homegrown core won’t necessarily be enough to propel the Sox to a better standing in the division."

[notin]

Some candor from Alex Speier today: "the overall state of farm systems through the AL East suggests that the continuing emergence of a homegrown core won’t necessarily be enough to propel the Sox to a better standing in the division."

 

It does seem like they are not taking into account that Baltimore, for example, will also continue to pump out the prospects, even without Hall and Ortiz...

[mvp 78]

Thanks for the updates.

 

Did I miss anyone significant?

 

(I know I list some that aren't.)

 

Departed:

 

Z Weiss

Mosqueda

Fernandez

 

New:

 

Melvin Adon (AA most likely)

Mark Kolozsvary (AAA arm)

 

All other moves are A ball or lower.

[mvp 78]

Some candor from Alex Speier today: "the overall state of farm systems through the AL East suggests that the continuing emergence of a homegrown core won’t necessarily be enough to propel the Sox to a better standing in the division."

What? No way!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It does seem like they are not taking into account that Baltimore, for example, will also continue to pump out the prospects, even without Hall and Ortiz...

 

Or that the Orioles get to play all the other easier teams not in the AL East that the Red Sox will play.

 

Hey, and so will the Yankees, Rays and Jays...

[Hugh2]

It does seem like they are not taking into account that Baltimore, for example, will also continue to pump out the prospects, even without Hall and Ortiz...

 

The Orioles literally have prospects ranked higher than all of Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela and Teel at their respective positions.

 

Jackson Holliday #1 Marcelo Mayer #15

Samuel Basallo #15 Kyle Teel #40

Colton Cowser #19 Roman Anthony #24

Heston Kjerstad #32 Ceddanne Rafaela #76

 

And then one other guy in the top 50.

 

If they start to spend, they're the new Braves, luckily Toronto and TB's window may be closing, and with the new schedule and three wildcards this team coudl still have a yearly path to the playoffs if they can get their s*** together.

[Old Red]

What? No way!

 

Especially if part of that homegrown talent isn’t loaded with good starting pitching. Good FA pitching is awfully expensive.

[mvp 78]

The Orioles literally have prospects ranked higher than all of Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela and Teel at their respective positions.

 

Jackson Holliday #1 Marcelo Mayer #15

Samuel Basallo #15 Kyle Teel #40

Colton Cowser #19 Roman Anthony #24

Heston Kjerstad #32 Ceddanne Rafaela #76

 

And then one other guy in the top 50.

 

If they start to spend, they're the new Braves, luckily Toronto and TB's window may be closing, and with the new schedule and three wildcards this team coudl still have a yearly path to the playoffs if they can get their s*** together.

 

Well this doesn't make me feel good at all!

[Old Red]

Well this doesn't make me feel good at all!

 

They didn’t even have to trade their best SS prospect to acquire Burnes, and their top SS prospect is behind the rookie of the year at SS.

[mvp 78]

They didn’t even have to trade their best SS prospect to acquire Burnes, and their top SS prospect is behind the rookie of the year at SS.

 

Actually, Gunnar played 10 more innings at 3B than SS in '23.

[Old Red]

Actually, Gunnar played 10 more innings at 3B than SS in '23.

 

Right you are, and Gunner also is projected to be the starting 3B this year on one site I saw.

[mvp 78]

Right you are, and Gunner also is projected to be the starting 3B this year on one site I saw.

 

He was much better at SS. If Holliday doesn't pan out, maybe it's a mistake moving him? Holliday has a worse glove too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They didn’t even have to trade their best SS prospect to acquire Burnes, and their top SS prospect is behind the rookie of the year at SS.

 

Red Sox should just trade for one of Baltimore's SS prospects and convert him to a pitcher; those guys can play anywhere.

[Old Red]

He was much better at SS. If Holliday doesn't pan out, maybe it's a mistake moving him? Holliday has a worse glove too.

 

It’s a good problem to have.

[Dipre]

Red Sox should just trade for one of Baltimore's SS prospects and convert him to a pitcher; those guys can play anywhere.

 

Beat a dead horse much?

[mvp 78]

Hoping Holliday turns into the O's version of all those slightly disappointing Jays players.

[Old Red]

Royals, and Bobby Witt agree to 11 yrs/ $288M. 3 yr club option at the end that could go to 14 yr/ $377M. Edited February 5, 2024 by Old Red

[mvp 78]

Royals, and Bobby Witt agree to 11 yrs/ $288M. 3 yr club option at the end that could go to 14 yr/ $377M.

 

35th percentile in chase rate. Dude is toast. He'll probably be -50 on BTV tomorrow. Wonder if they'll take Yorke for him?

[mvp 78]

@SamDykstraMiLB

The pre-2022 No. 1 prospect debate was one of the most fun at

@MLBPipeline

. Now, two of the top three have signed massive extensions.

 

Julio Rodríguez: 12 years, $210 million ($470 million max)

 

Bobby Witt Jr.: 11 years, $288.7 million ($377.7 million max)

 

Adley Rutschman: ?

 

The O's won't extend everyone. Do they go year to year via ARB with all of them? Some of them? Adley is looking at 10/250, right?

[moonslav59]

@SamDykstraMiLB

The pre-2022 No. 1 prospect debate was one of the most fun at

@MLBPipeline

. Now, two of the top three have signed massive extensions.

 

Julio Rodríguez: 12 years, $210 million ($470 million max)

 

Bobby Witt Jr.: 11 years, $288.7 million ($377.7 million max)

 

Adley Rutschman: ?

 

The O's won't extend everyone. Do they go year to year via ARB with all of them? Some of them? Adley is looking at 10/250, right?

 

Man, those are some long deals!

 

Is Casas worthy of a 9+ year deal?

Bello?

[notin]

Man, those are some long deals!

 

Is Casas worthy of a 9+ year deal?

Bello?

 

Yes.

 

Casas, Rodriquez and Witt were all born in 2000. With Witt signed through age 34 and JRod through 33, it makes sense to extend Casas until he’s 32…

[mvp 78]

PECOTA currently projects the Sox at 80 wins.

 

AL East:

NYY 94

TOR 88

BAL 87

TBR 86

BOS 80 (1.5% chance to win division, 16.2% chance to make playoffs)

[notin]

PECOTA currently projects the Sox at 80 wins.

 

AL East:

NYY 94

TOR 88

BAL 87

TBR 86

BOS 80 (1.5% chance to win division, 16.2% chance to make playoffs)

 

I never liked PECOTA as any type of projection machine.

[notin]

@SamDykstraMiLB

The pre-2022 No. 1 prospect debate was one of the most fun at

@MLBPipeline

. Now, two of the top three have signed massive extensions.

 

Julio Rodríguez: 12 years, $210 million ($470 million max)

 

Bobby Witt Jr.: 11 years, $288.7 million ($377.7 million max)

 

Adley Rutschman: ?

 

The O's won't extend everyone. Do they go year to year via ARB with all of them? Some of them? Adley is looking at 10/250, right?

 

If you had the choice to extend only one of Ruschman or Burnes, which one?

 

I don't know if it comes down to that for Baltimore, but if so, I think Burnes will be available in a year...

[mvp 78]

Man, those are some long deals!

 

Is Casas worthy of a 9+ year deal?

Bello?

 

Casas, yes. Bello, no.

[mvp 78]

If you had the choice to extend only one of Ruschman or Burnes, which one?

 

I don't know if it comes down to that for Baltimore, but if so, I think Burnes will be available in a year...

 

Rutschman 100%. I think he's the O's franchise going forward.

[mvp 78]

I never liked PECOTA as any type of projection machine.

 

Me either. Just fun to post.

[Old Red]

Casas, yes. Bello, no.

 

Heard an interview with McAdams this morning, and he thinks Casas will be offered some kind of deal, but nothing in length like Whitt. McAdams said Whitt is a 5 tool player, and Casas is not.

[mvp 78]

Heard an interview with McAdams this morning, and he thinks Casas will be offered some kind of deal, but nothing in length like Whitt. McAdams said Whitt is a 5 tool player, and Casas is not.

 

I'd give him the length, but not the total $$$'s. 10/125? It's less than Matt Olson's deal, but you're buying out pre-ARB and ARB years and he's a worse defender at the moment.