A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Last post about him, you called him a crybaby…

 

And you've never known me to be sarcastic before.

[Hugh2]

The big problem Montgomery is facing is neither he nor Snell is going to get the payday they want until the other signs somewhere, making him the last option on the table when teams just get desperate. But neither one is going to sign solely to help out the other. And this situation is further hampered by both having the same agent…

 

 

That's just the thing I'm wonder, yes everyone needs pitching, but I'm not really sure who out there is going to go desperate for Snell or Montgomery.

 

They both projected to receive 200/150 respectively. I think they end up seeing about 75% of that.

Bold prediction here that Boras hold outs will end up with a rare depreciation in value by holding out.

[Bellhorn04]

Next years pitching class has some interesting names in it as well.

 

Brandon Woodruff

Max Scherzer

Justin Verlander

Shane Bieber

Zack Wheeler

Max Fried

Walker Buehler

 

More guys the Sox won't "match up" with.

[Bellhorn04]

Could it be that Breslow just doesn't think that Montgomery is all that good? Could he be right in thinking that?

 

No and no.

[moonslav59]

I was thinking gathering young talent as Orioles have done but 'go for it' when the time is right.

 

I am just guessing that's what the Sox will do.

 

We will only have 4 players under contract at $75M after 2024.

 

The "time ir right," now for the O's and they will not spend a dime.

 

The Astros might be the model. They keep winning, despite letting stars walk. They spend, when needed and where needed.

[Randy Red Sox]

i was actually being sarcastic but it is more likely to find a Red Sox signing of a M/L deal more likely

[jacksonianmarch]

Boras waited too long this time. You’ve removed the Dodgers and Yankees from the mix. The Phillies resigned Nola, so they’re done. The Red Sox don’t seem to be contending. The Cubs and White Sox are in a building phase. The Padres are cutting payroll. Houston is set in their rotation. That doesn’t leave many deep pocketed teams out there.

[Bellhorn04]

Boras waited too long this time. You’ve removed the Dodgers and Yankees from the mix. The Phillies resigned Nola, so they’re done. The Red Sox don’t seem to be contending. The Cubs and White Sox are in a building phase. The Padres are cutting payroll. Houston is set in their rotation. That doesn’t leave many deep pocketed teams out there.

 

I get what you're saying, but he only waited too long if he passed on some good offers.

[notin]

Boras waited too long this time. You’ve removed the Dodgers and Yankees from the mix. The Phillies resigned Nola, so they’re done. The Red Sox don’t seem to be contending. The Cubs and White Sox are in a building phase. The Padres are cutting payroll. Houston is set in their rotation. That doesn’t leave many deep pocketed teams out there.

 

The Cubs are in a building phase?

[notin]

No and no.

 

I have to think it’s possible.

 

It’s also possible Breslow prefers not to go “full throttle” in 2024 with Montgomery because then he won’t be able to afford Burnes/Fried/Wheeler/Woodward/whoever in 2025. Sometimes you gotta pick your spots.

 

The most likely possibility remains the Sox are too cheap for any of them. But “most likely” doesn’t mean “only”…

[notin]

The "time ir right," now for the O's and they will not spend a dime.

 

The Astros might be the model. They keep winning, despite letting stars walk. They spend, when needed and where needed.

 

And it takes 2 years to catch them cheating…

[moonslav59]

Not signing any starting pitchers for more than $10 mill was arguably a very bad plan. JBJ, Story, Yoshida, Kike at short, there's plenty to choose from. You choose to focus on the deadline floundering, that's all.

 

Until the Story signing, almost every deal was for 1 year. (Kike and a couple other lessers were for only 2 years.) You don't get many stars that way. You get scrubs or players looking to reset their value for the next winter FA market. If they do well, they walk. If they suck, they walk.

 

I give Bloom a pass for year one and two, because he had about 20 holes on the 40 man roster to fill and precious few prospects able to help the big club, those years. His budget was limited. If he spent $20M x 3 on a pitcher, he'd have had nothing left to sign the Renfroes, Wachas, Hills, Strahms and others.

 

Once he spent on Story, Yoshida, Jansen, Martin, JT, Duvall and the Barnes extension, one could not longer explain why there was no serious spending on the rotation. Sure, the highly paid Sale ate up a lot of the budget, but we saw Porcello walk and not be replaced in salary. We saw Erod walk and the same thing. We saw Nate walk. The only guys we replaced were guys like Richards with Kluber, Perez with Wacha or Hill.

 

Granted, guys like JT helped, a lot. Duvall did well. Kike did well, year one. Renfroe did well. Jansen did well. Martin did well. They all filled some high need areas, but why were they all non SP'ers?

 

We lost tens of millions of dollars in SP'er contracts over Bloom's era. I listed most of them.

 

We added:

$6M Perez I

$5M Perez II

$10M Richards

$7M Wacha

$5M Hill

$10M Kluber

 

Our highest winter spending on the rotation in 4 years?

 

$12M for Wacha + Hill in 2022. The range has been from about $6M to $12M for 4 straight winters.

 

Now, we jump up to $19M, but again, it's for 1 year, unless Gio sucks. And, if you subtract the $10M "saved" in the Sale trade, we are once again back to $6M-12M spent on the rotation for 2024.

[Hugh2]

Boras waited too long this time. You’ve removed the Dodgers and Yankees from the mix. The Phillies resigned Nola, so they’re done. The Red Sox don’t seem to be contending. The Cubs and White Sox are in a building phase. The Padres are cutting payroll. Houston is set in their rotation. That doesn’t leave many deep pocketed teams out there.

 

Exactly, this is why I think this year is going to be different. Erod got 80/4, how much better is Montgomery really than EROD? He's worth more than that but not much more, maybe a hair more AAV and another year.

 

Snell is harder to predict, because he could be the best pitcher in the game, or not there but he's still probably going to get around $150. I think if another team throws out the contract he rejected from the Yankees he might bite, unless there really is some mystery bidding going on behind the scenese.

 

I don't think that's happening this year. For all the talk of Boras knowing what he's doing, people also forget about the years he misreads the market for his clients and they have to go play overseas for a year. I'm sure if Michael Conforto could turn back the hands of time he'd have accepted the METS QO in 2021. He would have gone into free agency the same exact year and be $19 million richer.

[moonslav59]

 

That he repeatedly folded in July and neither committed to selling nor actually trying to improve a borderline club was completely his fault and shows how he couldn’t commit to his own plan.

 

The one year he did something at the deadline (Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber,) look what happened.

[moonslav59]

He definitely let 1b go that one year.

 

But you’re falling into the “This move didn’t work out do the whole plan is shot” mentality. Every GM makes moves that don’t work out. The idea is to limit those to impacting one season…

 

The pre-season plan at 1B was not a bad one, at all. It just did not work, and Bloom was too slow to do anything about it. In his defense, it is not always easy finding a trade in May or June.

 

Going into 2022, the plan at 1B was this:

 

1. We had a starting 1Bman with an .819 OPS out of the gate in a rather large sample size of 545 career PAs. Dalbec had 33 HRs in 497 ABs with a Renroesque RBI total of 94. That was not a bad plan, especially when he looked to be trending upwards with his .867 OPS in his final 103 games of 2021 (345 PAs.)

 

2. His back up was a fine looking ML-ready, Tristan Casas, who just happened to get hurt at the exact time he was likely to be called up to replace the struggling Dalbec.

 

There was plenty of things to criticize Bloom over, but with the budget he had, I don't see how anyone should have thought he needed to spend on a 3rd first baseman prior to 2022.

 

Yes, he should have traded for one in June, but the 1B plan was solid going into 2022.

 

[notin]

The pre-season plan at 1B was not a bad one, at all. It just did not work, and Bloom was too slow to do anything about it. In his defense, it is not always easy finding a trade in May or June.

 

Going into 2022, the plan at 1B was this:

 

1. We had a starting 1Bman with an .819 OPS out of the gate in a rather large sample size of 545 career PAs. Dalbec had 33 HRs in 497 ABs with a Renroesque RBI total of 94. That was not a bad plan, especially when he looked to be trending upwards with his .867 OPS in his final 103 games of 2021 (345 PAs.)

 

2. His back up was a fine looking ML-ready, Tristan Casas, who just happened to get hurt at the exact time he was likely to be called up to replace the struggling Dalbec.

 

There was plenty of things to criticize Bloom over, but with the budget he had, I don't see how anyone should have thought he needed to spend on a 3rd first baseman prior to 2022.

 

Yes, he should have traded for one in June, but the 1B plan was solid going into 2022.

 

 

 

I think you mean a fourth first baseman. We also had Travis Shaw…

[moonslav59]

I don't think Montgomery is going to get the $150 million MLBTRADERUMORS, and certainly not the $172 million he is looking for in free agency.

 

If he can be had in the $90-$130 range (depending on years) Sox should bite

 

This will only make not signing him more frustrating. He might end up getting a AAV close to what Gio got, but for 2-3 more years. With Sale off the books, there is no excuse.

[moonslav59]

The big problem Montgomery is facing is neither he nor Snell is going to get the payday they want until the other signs somewhere, making him the last option on the table when teams just get desperate. But neither one is going to sign solely to help out the other. And this situation is further hampered by both having the same agent…

 

Some posters felt the Yamo signing was going to b last these guys into huge and out-of-reach deals.

[moonslav59]

Could it be that Breslow just doesn't think that Montgomery is all that good? Could he be right in thinking that?

 

There are certainly reasons to think Monty will decline as he ages.

 

To me, it's probably more about budget constraints than any dislike of Monty.

 

[moonslav59]

More guys the Sox won't "match up" with.

 

I'm not impressed by that list.

[moonslav59]

boras waited too long this time. You’ve removed the dodgers and yankees from the mix. The phillies resigned nola, so they’re done. The red sox don’t seem to be contending. The cubs and white sox are in a building phase. The padres are cutting payroll. Houston is set in their rotation. That doesn’t leave many deep pocketed teams out there.

 

sfg, tex, tor?

[Bellhorn04]

I have to think it’s possible.

 

It’s also possible Breslow prefers not to go “full throttle” in 2024 with Montgomery because then he won’t be able to afford Burnes/Fried/Wheeler/Woodward/whoever in 2025. Sometimes you gotta pick your spots.

 

The most likely possibility remains the Sox are too cheap for any of them. But “most likely” doesn’t mean “only”…

 

I'm obviously feeling very cynical about ownership these days.

 

The unfortunate part is they keep justifying my cynicism on a regular basis...

[moonslav59]

I think you mean a fourth first baseman. We also had Travis Shaw…

 

Yes, I forgot about the guy who looked real good finishing the 2021 season.

 

The 1B plan was not flawed. I just don't get why some seem to blame a decent plan, just because it failed.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not impressed by that list.

 

It's nothing for us to be concerned about.

[moonslav59]

I'm obviously feeling very cynical about ownership these days.

 

The unfortunate part is they keep justifying my cynicism on a regular basis...

 

When the Royals are wheeling and dealing more than we are, there is good reason for pessimism.

[notin]

Yes, I forgot about the guy who looked real good finishing the 2021 season.

 

The 1B plan was not flawed. I just don't get why some seem to blame a decent plan, just because it failed.

 

I get they simply didn’t go crazy because of Casas. They did still kind of ignore things. There are stories about how they passed on Carlos Santana, for example. To me, these stories might involve getting too worked up over missing out on a .692 OPS…

Edited January 27, 2024 by notin

[Nick]

I hate to think we are poor.

 

I get it that Sox may not want to get into a risky long term deals for starting pitching with guys passed their prime but....

 

What if we offer Monty and Snell 2 year $70M contracts.

 

Sure we'll blow past this year's luxury tax ayroll but it will be at most $180M for 2025 with room to add.

 

I would think that's a risk worth taking.

 

But no way in hell will happen.

 

Payroll budget should be managed on a rolling 3 or 5 years.

[Bellhorn04]

I hate to think we are poor.

 

I get it that Sox may not want to get into a risky long term deals for starting pitching with guys passed their prime but....

 

What if we offer Monty and Snell 2 year $70M contracts.

 

Sure we'll blow past this year's luxury tax ayroll but it will be at most $180M for 2025 with room to add.

 

I would think that's a risk worth taking.

 

But no way in hell will happen.

 

Payroll budget should be managed on a rolling 3 or 5 years.

 

There are rumors floating around that Fenway Sports Group has had some financial losses in areas other than the Red Sox, and that this has a lot to do with the Red Sox payroll cutting.

[notin]

There are rumors floating around that Fenway Sports Group has had some financial losses in areas other than the Red Sox, and that this has a lot to do with the Red Sox payroll cutting.

 

Having doubts.

 

Henry has always wanted to run the team with economic efficiency. His first move was to try to lure Billy Beane out of Oakland. Beane wasn’t noted so much for actually winning titles as he was for being competitive on a shoestring budget.

 

I think Henry has always wanted to run the team as being competitive on a budget…

[moonslav59]

There are rumors floating around that Fenway Sports Group has had some financial losses in areas other than the Red Sox, and that this has a lot to do with the Red Sox payroll cutting.

 

I few posters brought this up months and even years ago, and were widely laughed at.