A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why does it have to be Slaten or Mata? I get what you did there, but what if they both look really really really good in camp.

 

Shouldn't we be more optimistic? I mean, what is it that has happened in the past several years that could possibly have a Red Sox fan not feeling optimistic?

 

Yellow jerseys.

[moonslav59]

Why does it have to be Slaten or Mata? I get what you did there, but what if they both look really really really good in camp.

 

Shouldn't we be more optimistic? I mean, what is it that has happened in the past several years that could possibly have a Red Sox fan not feeling optimistic?

 

They might both make it, but neither can be sent to AAA.

[mvp 78]

Why does it have to be Slaten or Mata? I get what you did there, but what if they both look really really really good in camp.

 

Shouldn't we be more optimistic? I mean, what is it that has happened in the past several years that could possibly have a Red Sox fan not feeling optimistic?

 

Hard to have two guys without MLB experience that you are forced to keep on the roster for 162 games.

[mvp 78]

Yellow jerseys.

 

Those jerseys have a good win %.

[notin]

They might both make it, but neither can be sent to AAA.

 

Slaten could if Breslow could finish a deal for him…

[moonslav59]

Slaten could if Breslow could finish a deal for him…

 

We'd have to give up a non 40 man player, like maybe DHam or Lugo. I'm not sure what it would take.

 

I'm thinking Mata will not impress, so he could be an easy DFA or trade choice. If he sucks in ST'ing, he might pass through waivers.

 

You want to keep as many options open, as possible, especially for young pitchers with some sort of promise.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Those jerseys have a good win %.

 

I know it's all about the laundry, but bright yellow hurts my eyes. The cool blue is more soothing -- should reverse for jerseys, with yellow letters (like the caps).

[mvp 78]

I know it's all about the laundry, but bright yellow hurts my eyes. The cool blue is more soothing -- should reverse for jerseys, with yellow letters (like the caps).

 

Would look too much like FUCLA colors to me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MOST SIMILAR BATTERS from BB-Ref Similarity Scores:

 

Tris Casas: Frank Schwindel; through age 23: Bill White

Raffy Devers: Alex Bregman; through age 26: Eric Chavez

Jarren Duran: Jeff Abbott; through age 26: Hal McRae

Trevor Story: Corey Seager; through age 30: Marcus Semien

Masa Yoshida: (MLB) Angel Echevarria; through age 29: Garrett Cooper, Hideki Matsui

 

Carl Yaz: Dave Winfield

David Ortiz: Frank Thomas

Manny Ramirez: Frank Thomas

Dustin Pedroia: Howie Kendrick

Kevin Youkilis: Trot Nixon

Wade Boggs: Rod Carew

Dwight Evans: Luis Gonzalez

Jim Rice: Orlando Cepeda

Fred Lynn: Reggie Smith

Carlton Fisk: Johnny Bench

 

Xander Bogaerts: Rich Aurilia...

Mookie Betts: Wally Berger?

[moonslav59]

MOST SIMILAR BATTERS from BB-Ref Similarity Scores:

 

Tris Casas: Frank Schwindel; through age 23: Bill White

Raffy Devers: Alex Bregman; through age 26: Eric Chavez

Jarren Duran: Jeff Abbott; through age 26: Hal McRae

Trevor Story: Corey Seager; through age 30: Marcus Semien

Masa Yoshida: (MLB) Angel Echevarria; through age 29: Garrett Cooper, Hideki Matsui

 

Carl Yaz: Dave Winfield

David Ortiz: Frank Thomas

Manny Ramirez: Frank Thomas

Dustin Pedroia: Howie Kendrick

Kevin Youkilis: Trot Nixon

Wade Boggs: Rod Carew

Dwight Evans: Luis Gonzalez

Jim Rice: Orlando Cepeda

Fred Lynn: Reggie Smith

Carlton Fisk: Johnny Bench

 

Xander Bogaerts: Rich Aurilia...

Mookie Betts: Wally Berger?

 

Frank Schwindel?

 

LOL

[notin]

Frank Schwindel?

 

LOL

 

A clear parallel career path. We always knew Casas wouldn’t play his tenth game in MLB until age 29 and then be out of the league by 30…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Frank Schwindel?

 

LOL

 

Once a Breslow boy?

 

I still can't get over Mookie's comp, Wally Berger... sounds like something Chevy Chase ordered for lunch on a Lampoon vacation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A clear parallel career path. We always knew Casas wouldn’t play his tenth game in MLB until age 29 and then be out of the league by 30…

 

He'll be ok. Boras will hire him to run a beauty parlor to spruce up prospective free agents. They'll call it Triston Casas In.

[Bellhorn04]

Once a Breslow boy?

 

I still can't get over Mookie's comp, Wally Berger... sounds like something Chevy Chase ordered for lunch on a Lampoon vacation.

 

I'm not enamored with the Aurilia comp either. This is just a reminder why that's an area of B-R I ignore.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not enamored with the Aurilia comp either. This is just a reminder why that's an area of B-R I ignore.

 

Well, Bogie's #2 through #6: Posey, Tulo, Lindor, Semien, Pedey.

 

And check out his first 8 through age 30: Sandberg, Doerr, Trammell, Hanley, Vern Stephens, Travis Jackson, Jeter, Joe Torre -- all but Ramirez are in the Hall of Fame.

 

That's a pretty good trajectory.

[mvp 78]

Frank Schwindel?

 

LOL

 

BRef can be really silly sometimes.

[mvp 78]

Others:

 

Alex Verdugo - Roberto Kelly

Adam Duvall - Hunter Renfroe

Jorge Soler - Hunter Renfroe

[Hugh2]

Others:

 

Alex Verdugo - Roberto Kelly

Adam Duvall - Hunter Renfroe

Jorge Soler - Hunter Renfroe

 

Also

 

Hunter Renfroe - Hunter Renfroe

[notin]

I'm not enamored with the Aurilia comp either. This is just a reminder why that's an area of B-R I ignore.

 

Let’s not confuse “most similar” with “equal to”…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Let’s not confuse “most similar” with “equal to”…

 

... like, Duvall may be nicer guy than Renfroe. What's his PEACE?

[Dipre]

... like, Duvall may be nicer guy than Renfroe. What's his PEACE?

 

lolwut?

[notin]

Once a Breslow boy?

 

I still can't get over Mookie's comp, Wally Berger... sounds like something Chevy Chase ordered for lunch on a Lampoon vacation.

 

Berger was a really good player. I have no issues with that comp.

 

 

Through his age 30 season, Betts has a career OPS of .900 with an OPS+ of 138. Through his age 30 season, Berger had an .896 OPS with an OPS+ of 146.

 

Berger only played 11 years, but he’s not necessarily a bad comp here just because he isn’t the Hall of Famer you want to compare Betts to. In fact, there is an argument for putting Berger in Cooperstown…

[notin]

... like, Duvall may be nicer guy than Renfroe. What's his PEACE?

 

It’s more like what’s wrong with Renfroe that no one likes him? My theory is he spends all his free time throwing rocks at senior citizens and posting videos of it on Tubi…

[mvp 78]

Also

 

Hunter Renfroe - Hunter Renfroe

 

Renfroe - Soler 1, Duvall 2

[moonslav59]

One part of this team I am optimistic about is the offense.

 

I know we lost Dugo, Turner and Duvall. Together, they provided a pretty big punch to out line-up, in terms of power, OBP and big hits.

 

Turner was...

2nd in PAs

5th in OPS (.800)

3rd in HRs (23)

2nd in RBI (96)

 

Duvall was...

8th in PAs

3rd in OPS (.834)

4th in HRs, despite just 320 ABs

5th in RBI (58 in 353 PAs)

 

Dugo was....

3rd in PAs

7th in OPS (.745)

6th in HRs (13)

6th in RBI (54)

 

That is nearly 1600 PAs, total.

 

I expect most of these PAs will be replaced by a possible acquisition for RF (Duvall) or LF (O'Neill to RF) and...

O'Neill (LF/RF) career .776 OPS

more PAs from:

Duran (362 PAs> 550+) .828 OPS in 2023

Abreu (85 > ???) .862

Rafaela (89 > ???) .666

maybe EValdez (149) .764 or Refsnyder (243) .682

This may seem lacking, unless and until we see if we add anybody, but I'm hopeful we can match these 3 lost players with this group.

 

This is the part that may give us a big boost: 2B/SS (2023>2924)

2023:

.662 at 2B (PAs at 2B: 191 Arroyo, 148 EValdez, 88 Urias, 84 Reyes, 59 Kike, 24 Turner, 18 others)

.636 at SS (224 Kike, 143 Story, 101 Chang, 87 Reyes, 34 DHam, 24 Rafaela, 10 Arroyo, 6 others)

It might be a lot to ask for 550+ PAs from Story and Grissom, but just over 450 should provide a big boost to the offense.

Story: .836 career OPS (.723 career away still blows away 2023.)

Grissom: .746 career OPS with upside potential

(Subs should be Reyes, Rafaela and EValdez)

 

Other hopeful areas for improvement on 2023:

Yoshida: it's his second year in the USA, and he should play more at DH, this year. He ended up at .783 in 2023, which is not horrible. I'm hopeful he can improve on his .338 OBP. He was at .851 on Aug 1st (.367 OBP) and was still at .800 on Sept 13th (.345 OBP) before slumping badly to end his first MLB season.

 

Devers just turned 27 (peak prime for many players.) His .851 OPS was his 4th best in his last 4 full seasons. I think he can do better. His career high is .916, and I would not be surprised, if he tops that in 2024.

 

Casas just turned 24. It's hard to project players at his age, but he was one of MLB's best second half hitters in 2023. He ended up at a very respectable .856 OPS. That is pretty amazing when you consider his OPS was still under .600 on May 6th. It was really more like a great 2/3rds of a season: May 7th> .931 OPS with 21 HRs in just 339 ABs! That's 40 HR power over 650 ABs.

 

The hardest area to be really optimistic about on offense is our catchers, but there are some good signs. Both are still in their prime. I think both can improve o 2023's offense, but I'm not expecting by a whole lot.

.673 Wong in 403 PAs (was at .729 on Sept 9th, including an .803 stretch of 40 games)

.668 McGuire in 206 PAs (.740 since joining the Sox,. He was at .704 on Sept 14th, last year.)

 

A lot will depend on the kids: Casas, Grissom, Abreu, Rafaela and maybe EValdez. I'm confident we can climb in the OPS rankings in 2024.

 

Others lost:

PA rank (2023 OPS)

9. Kike 323 (.599)

11. Arroyo 206 (..638

16. Chang 112 (.552)

17. Urias 109 .698

18. Tapia 97 (.701)

23. Alfaro 20 (.368) and C Hamilton 6 (.167)

That's about 880 PAs. Not as much as the 1600 good PAs lost, but a pretty big chunk.

Hopefully, less from

53 Dalbec .570

39 DHam .438

 

While I think our defense will still be below average, I think we can finish in the middle 10 tier.

 

SS: more games by Story could provide a huge boost over 2023.

2B: While Grissom was a below average SS, I think he can become an average 2Bman, quickly. Even 16th to 20th in MLB would be a big plus over last yea's worst D at 2B.

1B: Casas showed improvement on D, last year, but still has a ways to go to get to the norm.

3B: Devers has been up and down. Last year was down.

C: A hard area to call. Most catchers improve after age 27-28, so let's see.

LF: Less of Yoshida has to be a plus.

CF: Depends on how much Duran plays CF. Call it even.

RF: Dugo did well, last year. We may dip a little, but Abreu may surprise, and O'Neill is not bad, when healthy.

 

Our pen may be very good or average. A lot depoends on how much our tweeners are needed in the rotation.

 

Our rotation looks worse than last year, to me. At best: even. Ceilings reached by most: better.

 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2024 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Berger was a really good player. I have no issues with that comp.

 

 

Through his age 30 season, Betts has a career OPS of .900 with an OPS+ of 138. Through his age 30 season, Berger had an .896 OPS with an OPS+ of 146.

 

Berger only played 11 years, but he’s not necessarily a bad comp here just because he isn’t the Hall of Famer you want to compare Betts to. In fact, there is an argument for putting Berger in Cooperstown…

 

Not a very good argument. He's similar to Willie Wilson and Mike Cameron according to JAWS (40th). Mookie is currently 10th in JAWS for RF and already has more bWAR than Vlad and Dave Winfield.

[notin]

Not a very good argument. He's similar to Willie Wilson and Mike Cameron according to JAWS (40th). Mookie is currently 10th in JAWS for RF and already has more bWAR than Vlad and Dave Winfield.

 

The comp feature at B-R just looks at offensive totals. Again, they’re not saying the players are interchangeable. It even says so in the explanation.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not a very good argument. He's similar to Willie Wilson and Mike Cameron according to JAWS (40th). Mookie is currently 10th in JAWS for RF and already has more bWAR than Vlad and Dave Winfield.

 

Apparently, we can close the book on Betts in the pasture. He's already made the Hall as an outfielder, with 64.5 WAR through age 30 (compare to Jim Rice's career 47.7).

 

Now Mookie is MLB channel's #1 ranked second baseman. He's Robin Yount in reverse!

[mvp 78]

The comp feature at B-R just looks at offensive totals. Again, they’re not saying the players are interchangeable. It even says so in the explanation.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml

 

I was just saying that there isn't "a good argument" for Berger being in the HOF. He had a very good career, but it was just short.

[notin]

I was just saying that there isn't "a good argument" for Berger being in the HOF. He had a very good career, but it was just short.

 

I think he’s a borderline case. He’s certainly not the most egregious omission even as outfielders go. But he also stacks up against a few inductees as well..