A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

Why?

 

He’s they one guy who has expressed an interest in being extended. And the guy who wouldn’t extend him is no longer in charge…

 

The red flags they were able to ignore for a while turned into much bigger red flags last year. Then he tanked after the ASB. Not worth it to keep around long term.

[moonslav59]

MassLive positional review, Catching

 

WHAT’S COMING FROM THE MINORS?

 

 

"The Red Sox believe they found their catcher of the future in the draft, as they selected Virginia standout Kyle Teel with the 14th overall pick. Teel, already ranked as Boston’s No. 5 prospect by SoxProspects.com after raking (.363 average, .977 OPS) in his first 26 pro games and reaching Double-A, is the Sox’ best catching prospect in years and could be ready to impact the major league roster at some point in 2024.

 

The Red Sox are also excited about 18-year-old Johanfran Garcia and also have Nathan Hickey, Brooks Brannon and Stephen Scott in the system. But Teel is the star of the catching ranks and the organization’s future plans at the position revolve around him.

 

Wong’s season was generally impressive. Though he posted just a .673 OPS and struck out 134 times, he showed some pop (25 doubles, 9 homers) and the Red Sox believe there’s more in the tank offensively. Wong, however, was most impressive defensively, ranking fourth among all catchers with 4 defensive runs saved (DRS) and throwing out 21% of would-be base stealers (league average). For most of the season, he ranked among the top of the league in many defensive metrics."

 

Any questions? next...

 

I haven't been this excited about the future of our catching position in a long time.

 

I'd be more than happy to have Wong or McGuire as the #2 catcher. I'm okay with our 1-2 catchers, now.

 

I'm not sure why both of our ctachers seemed to hit the wall, along with all our other players, at some point in August or September.

 

Wong peaked at .779 on June 1st, but I'm not sure we can really view that as his ceiling. He dipped to .677 in mid July before bringing it back up to .729 on September 9th. I hope this can be his norm. He went 3 for 40 to end the season (a horrific .198 OPS) and ended at .673. I'm hoping he can hit .700-.750 in 2024.

 

McGuire battled injuries. He started out hitting well, but he dipped to .665 mid June, before going on the IL. He creeped up to .736 by August 27th, before slumping and finishing at .668. (He went 7 for 43 to end 2023. That was a .443 OPS. I'm hopeful he can end up between .690 and .740 in 2024.

 

Teel would be a great add.

 

I like Scott and think we may protect him Rule 5, this winter, as our 3rd string catcher, who starts in AAA.

 

I think Hickey gets moved to another position.

 

Brannon is hard to project.

 

Joh. Garcia could be a nice surprise.

 

[moonslav59]

The red flags they were able to ignore for a while turned into much bigger red flags last year. Then he tanked after the ASB. Not worth it to keep around long term.

 

He did hit .757 from the ASB to August 26th. Not great, but not really a "tank," either.

 

He ended 2023 by going 15 for 96 with just 6 XBhs. That was an awful .462 OPS.

After the 17-1 win over HOU on August 24th, here were the Sox OPS:

 

Over 70 PAs, unless noted

1.034 Casas

.931 EValdez (48 PAs)

.793 Devers

.743 Abreu

.735 Duvall

.675 Yoshida

.666 Rafaela

.640 Turner

.617 Refsnyder (34)

.608 McGuire (54)

.608 Dalbec (39)

.606 Urias (59)

.569 Story

.554 Verdugo

.514 Wong

.403 Reyes (39)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Here are the highest rated pitchers on BTV by value in $millions:

(Remember, they take player value and years of control and minus salary owed or estimated. I do not know how they valued FA pitchers.)

211 Strider

107 Kirby

103 Webb

85 Gilbert

73 Gallen

71 Peralta

69 EPerez

65 BMiller

64 Steele

62 Luzardo

62 Bradish

58 Garrett

57 Gausman

57 FValdez

56 Skubal

55 Nola

53 P Lopez

52 Bibee

51 Cease

49 H Brown, D Rodriguez, R Detmers

45 B Elder, S Gray

44 J Ryan

42 Snell

41 G Williams

40 S Gray

38 H Greene

37 T Bradley

36 Bello, M Keller, Ohtani

35 L Castillo, McKenzie

34 Sandoval

31 McClanahan, A Abbott, M kelly

30 Burnes, Eflin, Suarez, Wheeler, Ashcraft

29 KCrawford, T Mahle, K Harrison

28. L Allen, B Ober, Kershaw

27 Montas, Senga, Stroman, Bryce Miller

26 ERod

25 Urias, Singer

24 Alcantara, Gore

23 Oviedo, Pfaadt

22 Kremer, Wacha, Houck

21 L Garcia, Rasmussen, Gibson, Sheehan, Canning, Civale

20 Y Cano, T Rogers

 

16 Whitlock

12 Winckowski

10 Pivetta

 

[mvp 78]

He did hit .757 from the ASB to August 26th. Not great, but not really a "tank," either.

 

He hit 1146 from8/18 - 8/26. Must extend Verdugo! He's like Ohtani without the pitching! Maybe see if he can pitch? Woah, that'd be a crazy contract savings if he could get 2-3 fWAR as a starting rotation guy too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

Yeah, call up the DBags and offer them Houck for Pfaadt straight up. See if they'll do it.

[moonslav59]

He hit 1146 from8/18 - 8/26. Must extend Verdugo! He's like Ohtani without the pitching! Maybe see if he can pitch? Woah, that'd be a crazy contract savings if he could get 2-3 fWAR as a starting rotation guy too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Why do you keep reading into my posts things I am not even close to suggesting.

 

I'm all for trading Dugo.

 

BTW, most players pad thier stats with hot weeks, here and there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, call up the DBags and offer them Houck for Pfaadt straight up. See if they'll do it.

 

I wouldn't take Houck for Crawford -- mainly because Crawford looks more reliable as a starting pitcher right now.

 

Looking at Steele, and wondering if any deals with the Cubs may happen soon, because of Breslow's knowledge of Chicago's needs, surplus, and potential sleeper projects...

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't take Houck for Crawford -- mainly because Crawford looks more reliable as a starting pitcher right now.

 

Looking at Steele, and wondering if any deals with the Cubs may happen soon, because of Breslow's knowledge of Chicago's needs, surplus, and potential sleeper projects...

 

I think Houck will end up being the better pitcher going forward, but Crawford has one more year of control.

[mvp 78]

Why do you keep reading into my posts things I am not even close to suggesting.

 

I'm all for trading Dugo.

 

BTW, most players pad thier stats with hot weeks, here and there.

 

For some reason, you made a post nitpicking my "Verdugo tanked after the ASB" (2nd half OPS 635 btw). I made a follow up post just to annoy you. It was pretty easy.

[harmony]

Here are the highest rated pitchers on BTV by value in $millions:

(Remember, they take player value and years of control and minus salary owed or estimated. I do not know how they valued FA pitchers.)

211 Strider

107 Kirby

103 Webb

85 Gilbert

73 Gallen

71 Peralta

69 EPerez

65 BMiller

64 Steele

62 Luzardo

62 Bradish

58 Garrett

57 Gausman

57 FValdez

56 Skubal

55 Nola

53 P Lopez

52 Bibee

51 Cease

49 H Brown, D Rodriguez, R Detmers

45 B Elder, S Gray

44 J Ryan

42 Snell

41 G Williams

40 S Gray

38 H Greene

37 T Bradley

36 Bello, M Keller, Ohtani

35 L Castillo, McKenzie

34 Sandoval

31 McClanahan, A Abbott, M kelly

30 Burnes, Eflin, Suarez, Wheeler, Ashcraft

29 KCrawford, T Mahle, K Harrison

28. L Allen, B Ober, Kershaw

27 Montas, Senga, Stroman, Bryce Miller

26 ERod

25 Urias, Singer

24 Alcantara, Gore

23 Oviedo, Pfaadt

22 Kremer, Wacha, Houck

21 L Garcia, Rasmussen, Gibson, Sheehan, Canning, Civale

20 Y Cano, T Rogers

 

16 Whitlock

12 Winckowski

10 Pivetta

 

The list omits Bryan Woo, who at $25.1 milliion trails fellow Seattle righthanders George Kirby ($106.9 million), Logan Gilbert ($85.3 million) and Bryce Miller ($26.7 million).

[moonslav59]

The list omits Bryan Woo, who at $25.1 milliion trails fellow Seattle righthanders George Kirby ($106.9 million), Logan Gilbert ($85.3 million) and Bryce Miller ($26.7 million).

 

My bad. You are correct.

 

You guys have a nice set of SP'ers with many years of control.

[notin]

I wouldn't take Houck for Crawford -- mainly because Crawford looks more reliable as a starting pitcher right now.

 

Looking at Steele, and wondering if any deals with the Cubs may happen soon, because of Breslow's knowledge of Chicago's needs, surplus, and potential sleeper projects...

 

I don’t see the Cubs, with payroll room to spare and who only missed the postseason by one game, dealing their ace. Especially with the turmoil in the Brewers’ rotation that is making the NL Central that much more winnable right now…

[mvp 78]

I don’t see the Cubs, with payroll room to spare and who only missed the postseason by one game, dealing their ace. Especially with the turmoil in the Brewers’ rotation that is making the NL Central that much more winnable right now…

 

I don't think the original post is referencing a trade for Steele more so than a trade for people further down in the org that Breslow likes (the verbiage of surplus/sleeper projects).

[moonslav59]

I think, for the most part, the pitcher values listed on BTV are low, if the pitcher is young and has 3+ years of control. I disagree with some of their scores, and I'm pretty certain most trades where you off three $7M players for one $21M player will not be accepted by the $21M player's team, unless the player is being paid a lot of has 1 year (maybe 2) of control left.

 

Here is my opinion on a few Sox players' values:

 

30 Duran (I'd say 22-25)

29 Bleis (maybe 22-25)

17 Rafaela (I'd say 23-25)

17 Yorke (I'd say 9-11)

14 Scheiber (maybe 7-9)

5.7 Drohan (2-4)

4.0 Wikelman (8-10)

3.3 Abreu (8-10)

3.2 Martin (6-8)

2.5 Cespedes (10-12)

2.3 Monegro (8-10)

2.2 Castro (6-8)

1.8 Jimenez (not sure why he's above about 20 players listed)

0.5 Gambrell (3-5)

0.5 Rosier (2-4)

-80 Story (to -37-40)

 

 

[notin]

I think, for the most part, the pitcher values listed on BTV are low, if the pitcher is young and has 3+ years of control. I disagree with some of their scores, and I'm pretty certain most trades where you off three $7M players for one $21M player will not be accepted by the $21M player's team, unless the player is being paid a lot of has 1 year (maybe 2) of control left.

 

Here is my opinion on a few Sox players' values:

 

30 Duran (I'd say 22-25)

29 Bleis (maybe 22-25)

17 Rafaela (I'd say 23-25)

17 Yorke (I'd say 9-11)

14 Scheiber (maybe 7-9)

5.7 Drohan (2-4)

4.0 Wikelman (8-10)

3.3 Abreu (8-10)

3.2 Martin (6-8)

2.5 Cespedes (10-12)

2.3 Monegro (8-10)

2.2 Castro (6-8)

1.8 Jimenez (not sure why he's above about 20 players listed)

0.5 Gambrell (3-5)

0.5 Rosier (2-4)

-80 Story (to -37-40)

 

 

 

Might be worth noting that since there is a Trade Dead Zone between August and mid-November, updates for players’ values might be slow to publish. Some of those players might be updated (again?) before they are actually eligible to be dealt…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think the original post is referencing a trade for Steele more so than a trade for people further down in the org that Breslow likes (the verbiage of surplus/sleeper projects).

 

Thanks; that's what I meant -- that maybe Breslow had a few more Cubs' prospects targeted to develop into the next Steele (and that maybe now, he'll try to steal...)

[notin]

I don't think the original post is referencing a trade for Steele more so than a trade for people further down in the org that Breslow likes (the verbiage of surplus/sleeper projects).

 

Oh ok.

 

Certainly the Sox have to keep building the farm. But not sure that’s the top priority this offseason

[notin]

The red flags they were able to ignore for a while turned into much bigger red flags last year. Then he tanked after the ASB. Not worth it to keep around long term.

 

Hopefully there is more to those red flags than a couple of one game suspensions. Cora also did say a few good things about Verdugo as well.

 

The downside is most of the MLB Sox outfielders are LF/CF types not really fit for RF at Fenway…

[moonslav59]

Hopefully there is more to those red flags than a couple of one game suspensions. Cora also did say a few good things about Verdugo as well.

 

The downside is most of the MLB Sox outfielders are LF/CF types not really fit for RF at Fenway…

 

What are you thoughts on only Abreu's defense in RF?

[notin]

What are you thoughts on only Abreu's defense in RF?

 

Not much of a sample size.

 

Although I do admit I was unimpressed watching him fall over trying to camp under that fly ball in Minnesota.

 

But should the plan be to load up on rookie outfielders? Or does Abreu get the start over Rafaela with Duran in CF?

 

Not sure if starting two rookie outfielders is the way to go. Not like these guys are the Gold Dust Twins 2.0…

Edited October 31, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Not much of a sample size.

 

Although I do admit I was unimpressed watching him fall over trying to camp under that fly ball in Minnesota…

 

Soxprospects.com says this...

 

Profiles best in a corner outfield position. Solid instincts and efficient routes. Not a flashy defender, but makes the routine plays and does a good job getting to balls on the move. Could be an above-average defender in right field, but projects as fringe-average in center field... Above-average arm. Accurate with good carry.

 

[notin]

Yeah, call up the DBags and offer them Houck for Pfaadt straight up. See if they'll do it.

 

I’m not so sure. Pfaadt’s very limited track record is less impressive and he only has one more year of control…

[mvp 78]

Thanks; that's what I meant -- that maybe Breslow had a few more Cubs' prospects targeted to develop into the next Steele (and that maybe now, he'll try to steal...)

 

And some people say I read into their posts too much! Hmph!!!

[mvp 78]

Hopefully there is more to those red flags than a couple of one game suspensions. Cora also did say a few good things about Verdugo as well.

 

The downside is most of the MLB Sox outfielders are LF/CF types not really fit for RF at Fenway…

 

Cora's job is to build up his players as much as possible, but to also discipline them when necessary. It's a difficult hang wire act when you have a guy like Verdugo. I wonder what Cora says about him when nobody is around. There's been so much talk about moving on from Verdugo that Cora must be a little bit on board.

[mvp 78]

Not much of a sample size.

 

Although I do admit I was unimpressed watching him fall over trying to camp under that fly ball in Minnesota.

 

But should the plan be to load up on rookie outfielders? Or does Abreu get the start over Rafaela with Duran in CF?

 

Not sure if starting two rookie outfielders is the way to go. Not like these guys are the Gold Dust Twins 2.0…

 

With a small sample size, one play like that is magnified too.

[mvp 78]

I’m not so sure. Pfaadt’s very limited track record is less impressive and he only has one more year of control…

 

He's younger than Houck, has more control and throws 4 pitches. I'd do the deal in a heartbeat. I think I've seen enough of Houck to move on from him for a guy that has starter potential.

[notin]

He's younger than Houck, has more control and throws 4 pitches. I'd do the deal in a heartbeat. I think I've seen enough of Houck to move on from him for a guy that has starter potential.

 

That’s really it.

 

Houck, in the right hands, is a lights out multi-inning reliever (3 innings max). Pfaadt is a potential starter…

[notin]

With a small sample size, one play like that is magnified too.

 

Very true..

[mvp 78]

Very true..

 

At least he wasn't given a horrible nickname for that play yet. He played a very solid RF for WOO and has a great arm. I think he's athletic enough to play RF at Fenway. Long term, it will probably be someone else.