A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

And the notion that Player X “didn’t work out” can be a subjective. Dombrowski kept Benintendi and dealt Manny Margot. There really isn’t much difference between these two players. Benintendi had a terrific 2018, which certainly helped. But overall they’re essentially the same player since 2018 (Benintendi has 7.9 bWAR in that stretch while Margot has 7.8.)

 

Some of the prospects traded by DD got hurt, and that is something very hard to predict.

 

We will never know just how good Anderson Espinoza might have been. I thought, at the time, he was an overpay for Pomeranz, but maybe due to his injury, the trade looks fine, now.

 

It does seem pretty amazing that DD traded about 20 players that were or once were top 20 prospects on the Sox rankings lits. The ones he kept have done way better. Call it mostly luck or happenstance, but it is true.

 

In hindsight, those who said he "emptied the farm" turned out to be wrong, despite the sheer number of prospects dealt away.

[notin]

Some of the prospects traded by DD got hurt, and that is something very hard to predict.

 

We will never know just how good Anderson Espinoza might have been. I thought, at the time, he was an overpay for Pomeranz, but maybe due to his injury, the trade looks fine, now.

 

It does seem pretty amazing that DD traded about 20 players that were or once were top 20 prospects on the Sox rankings lits. The ones he kept have done way better. Call it mostly luck or happenstance, but it is true.

 

In hindsight, those who said he "emptied the farm" turned out to be wrong, despite the sheer number of prospects dealt away.

 

And he kept some ranked guys who flopped, like every GM/CBO ever. Not like he capitalized on Henry Owens hype…

[Hugh2]

Some of the prospects traded by DD got hurt, and that is something very hard to predict.

 

We will never know just how good Anderson Espinoza might have been. I thought, at the time, he was an overpay for Pomeranz, but maybe due to his injury, the trade looks fine, now.

 

It does seem pretty amazing that DD traded about 20 players that were or once were top 20 prospects on the Sox rankings lits. The ones he kept have done way better. Call it mostly luck or happenstance, but it is true.

 

In hindsight, those who said he "emptied the farm" turned out to be wrong, despite the sheer number of prospects dealt away.

 

While this may be true, if it’s true it’s an overpay it doesn’t make it right in hindsight. If it was an overpay then it means they could have got something better for Espinoza. They traded a top prospect on all baseball for a relief pitcher.

[moonslav59]

And he kept some ranked guys who flopped, like every GM/CBO ever. Not like he capitalized on Henry Owens hype…

 

No doubt, but look at the balance sheet of successes. It's not even close.

 

I'm not sure why you are so hesitant to admit that at worst, he got lucky and at best, he ended up doing okay with the farm, despite the 5 year gap that hurt us from 2019 to 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

While this may be true, if it’s true it’s an overpay it doesn’t make it right in hindsight. If it was an overpay then it means they could have got something better for Espinoza. They traded a top prospect on all baseball for a relief pitcher.

 

Pomeranz was a starter at the time, with pretty good numbers, and one of the few available at a time of need.

 

It was an overpay but a necessary one.

[notin]

Pomeranz was a starter at the time, with pretty good numbers, and one of the few available at a time of need.

 

It was an overpay but a necessary one.

 

And a very good starter in 2017. Fell apart in 2018 and went on to become a lights out reliever for other teams…

[notin]

I think 5Gold had an interesting thought in that “no, this team isn’t just 2 SPs away.”

 

I didn’t and still don’t agree, but I can certainly see the possibility of the new boss thinking this team might need an overhaul.

 

If so, any combination of the following players might be dealt: Verdugo, Jansen, Martin, Story (his 4/$92 deal might not look so bad), Yoshida (same but at 4/$72mill), Urias, Duran, McGuire, and Whitlock.

 

Obviously the others are not off the table, but some are all but immovable (Sale) and at some point, they will need to field a team…

Edited October 17, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I think 5Gold had an interesting thought in that “no, this team isn’t just 2 SPs away.”

 

I didn’t and still don’t agree, but I can certainly see the possibility of the new boss thinking this team might need an overhaul.

 

If so, any combination of the following players might be dealt: Verdugo, Jansen, Martin, Story (his 4/$92 deal might not look so bad), Yoshida (same but at 4/$72mill), Urias, Duran, McGuire, and Whitlock.

 

Obviously the others are not off the table, but some are all but immovable (Sale) and at some point, they will need to field a team…

 

The real boss is Henry. He's the one who will set the direction for 2024.

[mvp 78]

Some of the prospects traded by DD got hurt, and that is something very hard to predict.

 

We will never know just how good Anderson Espinoza might have been. I thought, at the time, he was an overpay for Pomeranz, but maybe due to his injury, the trade looks fine, now.

 

It does seem pretty amazing that DD traded about 20 players that were or once were top 20 prospects on the Sox rankings lits. The ones he kept have done way better. Call it mostly luck or happenstance, but it is true.

 

In hindsight, those who said he "emptied the farm" turned out to be wrong, despite the sheer number of prospects dealt away.

 

The Espinoza trade is still bad in hindsight because they used a top 20 prospect for a pitcher that was on an unsustainable hot streak rather than a pitcher that could have actually been useful. Espinoza had much higher trade value at the time than Drew Pomeranz. Why did they jump at Pomeranz instead of reaching for a better pitcher? That was DD's MO.

[notin]

The real boss is Henry. He's the one who will set the direction for 2024.

 

He will set the budget, but will he make actual baseball personnel decisions?

[mvp 78]

Pomeranz was a starter at the time, with pretty good numbers, and one of the few available at a time of need.

 

It was an overpay but a necessary one.

 

2.47 ERA, 3.61 xFIP

 

Stories were out there that he had revitalized his career with the cutter, but a lot of us saw that regression coming a mile away.

[Hugh2]

And the notion that Player X “didn’t work out” can be a subjective. Dombrowski kept Benintendi and dealt Manny Margot. There really isn’t much difference between these two players. Benintendi had a terrific 2018, which certainly helped. But overall they’re essentially the same player since 2018 (Benintendi has 7.9 bWAR in that stretch while Margot has 7.8.)

 

Also, didn't he trade away a young Randy Johnson and Doug Fister???? he's had his blunders.

 

At the end of the day, you trade player y for X. And you base that largely off of an analysis that YOU ARE NOT doing. the difference is, DD was willing to sweeten the pot to get things done, but Bloom was not. To be fair, both those things in their extreme are probably damaging to an organization, although one of them can probably breed short-term success. That's exactly what DD did here, he came into a GOOD situation, a team that was already good with a strong farm. That's not taking anything away from him, he made the right decisions to push us over the top.

 

But people act like DD is a god, or there is only one way to skin a cat.

[Hugh2]

2.47 ERA, 3.61 xFIP

 

Stories were out there that he had revitalized his career with the cutter, but a lot of us saw that regression coming a mile away.

 

Yeah, I thought it was a huge overpay at the time. The guy never pitched over a 100 innings before and was having a good half-season. He then came here and saw his ERA double, not a surprise at all for a guy doubling his normal workload. To be fair he had a good year the following year but that was it. It was all eggs after that and he was never effective as a starter again. He reallly only had one good, full, healthy season as a starter where he was good all year.

 

 

It would almost be like trading our Top prospect for another team Tanner Houck.

[moonslav59]

The Espinoza trade is still bad in hindsight because they used a top 20 prospect for a pitcher that was on an unsustainable hot streak rather than a pitcher that could have actually been useful. Espinoza had much higher trade value at the time than Drew Pomeranz. Why did they jump at Pomeranz instead of reaching for a better pitcher? That was DD's MO.

 

I remember arguing this point, back then. I wasn't so upset about trading so many top prospects away as I was about who we got.

 

I loved the sale trade.

I thought the Thornburg trade made sense.

I thought Kimbrel was paid like a FA and was not worth trading so many prospects, when we should have just signed him a year earlier. As it turned out, closer costs sky-rocketed right after that trade, and that negated that critism. (Note: I WAS WRONG.)

I had hoped we traded for Quintana not Pomeranz, although he would have cost more.

 

All in all, I still have no issues with his trades. They helped create the best 3 year stretch in over 90 years. They helped create that magical 2018 season.

[Bellhorn04]

The Espinoza trade is still bad in hindsight because they used a top 20 prospect for a pitcher that was on an unsustainable hot streak rather than a pitcher that could have actually been useful. Espinoza had much higher trade value at the time than Drew Pomeranz. Why did they jump at Pomeranz instead of reaching for a better pitcher? That was DD's MO.

 

Buchholz had just gone down and they needed a starter. Probably not much else available at the time. I guess you could call him Desperate Dave on that one.

[Bellhorn04]

He will set the budget, but will he make actual baseball personnel decisions?

 

The question is whether they're going to shoot for the playoffs in 2024. That will dictate the general approach and likely the budget as well.

[Hugh2]

The question is whether they're going to shoot for the playoffs in 2024. That will dictate the general approach and likely the budget as well.

 

It's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that Henry views 2025 as the year to start going for it and he figures hiring a new GM buys him another year of mediocrity.

 

There is another very robust starting pitching class in 2025 as well. And Mayer/Anthony plus others will be here.

 

I'd love to play with that 2025 team while still going for it with some pitching upgrades for 2024.

[moonslav59]

Buchholz had just gone down and they needed a starter. Probably not much else available at the time. I guess you could call him Desperate Dave on that one.

 

Espinoza was a top 20 pitcher nationwide. How many of those do we get?

[Bellhorn04]

It's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that Henry views 2025 as the year to start going for it and he figures hiring a new GM buys him another year of mediocrity.

 

I don't see how a shakeup in the front office buys another year of mediocrity with the fans.

[notin]

Espinoza was a top 20 pitcher nationwide. How many of those do we get?

 

Espinoza highest rank ever was 19, by BA before 2016. One year earlier, MLB.com ranked Henry Owens the same…

[moonslav59]

It's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that Henry views 2025 as the year to start going for it and he figures hiring a new GM buys him another year of mediocrity.

 

There is another very robust starting pitching class in 2025 as well. And Mayer/Anthony plus others will be here.

 

I'd love to play with that 2025 team while still going for it with some pitching upgrades for 2024.

 

I've thought about that, too.

 

If that was the "long term plan," all along, the Story, Yoshida and Devers contracts still fit into that window. All the others were just placeholders, including Jansen and Martin.

 

I had hopes 2023 would be "the year," and I see 2024 as promising, but only if we go "all in" on the rotation, which seems doubtful.

 

We'll still need pitching in 2025, so maybe we go for a young one, this winter (and punt 2024) and add another in 2025.

 

Like I've said, I'm done expecting it to happen, ever. I'm not saying I think JH will never spend, again, but I'm not going to expect it to happen for any "next season."

 

I believe it when I see it.

[notin]

I don't see how a shakeup in the front office buys another year of mediocrity with the fans.

 

Agreed.

 

But then was this ever a consideration? Fairly certain hitting Bloom to build a farm while slashing payroll was not designed to sit well with the fans either…

[Hugh2]

I don't see how a shakeup in the front office buys another year of mediocrity with the fans.

 

I'm not telling you that you will be ok with it. I'm telling you they COULD use that to justify their actions.

[notin]

I'm not telling you that you will be ok with it. I'm telling you they COULD use that to justify their actions.

 

If that was the plan, the simplest course of action would have been to give Bloom another year…

[Hugh2]

If that was the plan, the post course of action would have been to give Bloom another year…

 

No, because firing Bloom shows the fans that they're accountable and demand success. It's easy enough to write off one bad year when it's your first year on the job. Blame everything on the other guy. Afterall EVERY single guy on this roster was not added by next years GM so. It's the perfect scape goat.

 

Surely, this front office wouldn't ever try to scape goat a situation.

[dgalehouse]

Anderson Espinosa has never had any success beyond the rookie leagues. He was over hyped and overrated. The " next Pedro. " Yeah, right. More like the next Logan Allen. Let's keep lamenting letting him get away. Folks are still digging for ways to discredit Dombrowski, who has been very, very successful in his career. It is actually funny to hear some of you give him some credit, but then take a shot at him in the next breath. I have one word for you ; Scoreboard !

[cp176]

Pomeranz was a starter at the time, with pretty good numbers, and one of the few available at a time of need.

 

It was an overpay but a necessary one.

 

I thought that that was a good trade for short term for sure. How old was Espinoza when he was traded? Everybody has a wealth of young players who look good before the development process is complete. He traded in many instances potential for the real deal. I like that.

[notin]

No, because firing Bloom shows the fans that they're accountable and demand success. It's easy enough to write off one bad year when it's your first year on the job. Blame everything on the other guy. Afterall EVERY single guy on this roster was not added by next years GM so. It's the perfect scape goat.

 

Surely, this front office wouldn't ever try to scape goat a situation.

 

If you publicly demand success, you have to follow up and work towards it. Another year of mediocrity under a new regime just causes fans to lose faith in the people ultimately in charge and ruins their narrative. And you certainly cannot say “well this was because of the last guy.” Trust me on that one. I’ve thrown out my negative yet factual picture of the end of 2019 and yet people still think Dombrowski had nothing to do with that and the Sox would be in the postseason of he was still here.

 

I can publicly bait people and get responses on this. Watch.

 

How many realize that in the 3 years since DD was hired, the Phillies have only won 11 more games than the Sox and only made the postseason one more time?

[Bellhorn04]

How many realize that in the 3 years since DD was hired, the Phillies have only won 11 more games than the Sox and only made the postseason one more time?

 

Yeah, well, it's also true that the Phillies have made the postseason TWICE AS MANY TIMES as the Sox. 100% MORE! And TWICE SINCE THE LAST TIME THE SOX DID!

 

It's how you present your ******** that matters.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How many realize that in the 3 years since DD was hired, the Phillies have only won 11 more games than the Sox and only made the postseason one more time?

 

I knew DD's Phils were better than Bloom's Sox!

 

But imagine the poor Philly fans getting stuck watching at least another year of Schwarber, Castellanos, Strahm, 15-game winner Walker, and Turner (forever)?

 

Not to mention Harper, Realmuto and Wheeler... hey, at least we got Noah Song back.