A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

I really appreciate your analysis, especially when posts see both sides -- like today's optimism/pessimism preview.

 

But I also think it'd be best to cut back on the pipe when looking at the last-place roster, and thinking the addition of two top pitchers will make the current personnel that much better.

 

It's not like there are any rumors of candidates for new Chief Officer rushing to Boston the past month, so maybe not so many view the Sox as quick fix title contenders yet...

 

They were 69-65 going into September. I think what they did in September isn't going to translate to next season. They just completely turtled and fell apart once they realized they weren't making the playoffs. This was a team that was slightly above .500 all year long. Ending on a 9-19 stretch skews the negatives too high.

[dgalehouse]

BTV : The official baseball trade and player value ranking organization of the United States ? Or two nerds with an I - Pad ? That is the question.

[mvp 78]

BTV : The official baseball trade and player value ranking organization of the United States ? Or two nerds with an I - Pad ? That is the question.

 

I think it's just used in place of:

 

Hey, I got a great trade idea: Yorke, Duran, Drohan and Mata for Nootbar and Edman.

 

It's just a better way of valuing players and their contracts/years of control in lieu of having none.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rafaela getting that much time in CF. I think he sees a lot of time at 2B/SS in 2024. It's not ideal, but Cora hinted at it. Eventually, he should be the fulltime CF, but they will still use him to fill in MIF until the younger guys show up later in '24 and '25.

 

Here's where the front office may be counting on the future even less than selling the fans on counting on the future.

 

How many of those prospects -- Chaim: "you know what's coming" -- will not only stick in the majors, but become big league stars?

 

Longtime fans (basically, the majority of fans these days) are spoiled from so many Red Sox rookies becoming almost instant stars -- one wave after another: Fisk/Rice/Lynn to Clemens/Boggs to Greenwell/Burks to Mo/Nomar to Pedroia/Youk/Ellsbury to Papelbon/Lester/Buchholz to Bogaerts/Betts/Devers etc etc etc.

[moonslav59]

Whatever floats your boat.

 

Complaining about others doing this is quite the boat to float, too.

[mvp 78]

Here's where the front office may be counting on the future even less than selling the fans on counting on the future.

 

How many of those prospects -- Chaim: "you know what's coming" -- will not only stick in the majors, but become big league stars?

 

Longtime fans (basically, the majority of fans these days) are spoiled from so many Red Sox rookies becoming almost instant stars -- one wave after another: Fisk/Rice/Lynn to Clemens/Boggs to Greenwell/Burks to Mo/Nomar to Pedroia/Youk/Ellsbury to Papelbon/Lester/Buchholz to Bogaerts/Betts/Devers etc etc etc.

 

Who is asking them to become stars? Even if they become everyday regulars, it'd be a big help. John Valentin was a great ballplayer. If Mayer/Yorke are just John Valentins, I'm fine with it. Nobody in BOS thought he was a star.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela getting that much time in CF. I think he sees a lot of time at 2B/SS in 2024. It's not ideal, but Cora hinted at it. Eventually, he should be the fulltime CF, but they will still use him to fill in MIF until the younger guys show up later in '24 and '25.

 

Good point. If we add nobody to the OF, would you guess more innings in CF for Duran, and maybe more LF innings for Yoshida or Abreu?

 

I hope we add Duvall, with or without Dugo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They were 69-65 going into September. I think what they did in September isn't going to translate to next season. They just completely turtled and fell apart once they realized they weren't making the playoffs. This was a team that was slightly above .500 all year long. Ending on a 9-19 stretch skews the negatives too high.

 

The same thing happened the year before with a different core. The roster just isn't good enough.

 

If we're honest, 2021 -- when they persevered despite a post-deadline stretch where half the team was out with Covid -- was the anomaly... with the same maligned manager in the dugout.

[moonslav59]

Who is asking them to become stars? Even if they become everyday regulars, it'd be a big help. John Valentin was a great ballplayer. If Mayer/Yorke are just John Valentins, I'm fine with it. Nobody in BOS thought he was a star.

 

Exactly.

 

How many "just everyday players" did we get from our farm after Devers (summer of '17) and before Casas/Bello (recently?)

 

Houck?

Dalbec for a short time.

Crawford (starting in '22)

 

Am I missing anyone?

Edited October 16, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Good point. If we add nobody to the OF, would you guess more innings in CF for Duran, and maybe more LF innings for Yoshida or Abreu?

 

I hope we add Duvall, with or without Dugo.

 

Duran is a better CFer than Abreu, I think. Duran made a big jump last offseason defensively. Maybe he makes another one this year? IDK.

 

I hope there are less innings for Masa, but I'm not going to count on it.

[mvp 78]

The same thing happened the year before with a different core. The roster just isn't good enough.

 

If we're honest, 2021 -- when they persevered despite a post-deadline stretch where half the team was out with Covid -- was the anomaly... with the same maligned manager in the dugout.

 

Did they fall apart due to a lack of reinforcements at the deadline?

[Old Red]

Complaining about others doing this is quite the boat to float, too.

 

Asking a serious question of when was the last time any of your BTV suggested trades actually happened was not complaining. Just curious.

[mvp 78]

Asking a serious question of when was the last time any of your BTV suggested trades actually happened was not complaining. Just curious.

 

He has 75k posts. Do you doubt that one of his trade suggestions hasn't actually happened?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Did they fall apart due to a lack of reinforcements at the deadline?

 

In '22 and '23, the answer is obvious -- according to any media covering the club, including Papelbon in the NESN studio.

 

But the Sox didn't fall in '21 until the postseason, when the lack of bullpen reinforcements -- compared to the team that won the pennant -- kept them from the World Series.

[moonslav59]

Here's where the front office may be counting on the future even less than selling the fans on counting on the future.

 

How many of those prospects -- Chaim: "you know what's coming" -- will not only stick in the majors, but become big league stars?

 

Longtime fans (basically, the majority of fans these days) are spoiled from so many Red Sox rookies becoming almost instant stars -- one wave after another: Fisk/Rice/Lynn to Clemens/Boggs to Greenwell/Burks to Mo/Nomar to Pedroia/Youk/Ellsbury to Papelbon/Lester/Buchholz to Bogaerts/Betts/Devers etc etc etc.

 

If we guessed on the prospects DD acquired from Ben (and Theo,) we'd have been wrong on almost everyone, except Devers and maybe Casas.

 

If I had to guess, now...

 

Out of Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Bleis: 1-2 might be stars and 3-4 might be FT players. A chance 3 are stars.

 

Out of Rafaela, Yorke, Perales, Wikelman. Abreu, Murphy, Valdez and Gambrell: 1 might become a star, maybe 0, and maybe 1-3 become everyday players.

 

I like this group: Cespedes, Zanetello, Joh Garcia, Monegro, Anderson and maybe Romero to produce 1-2 stars and 2-3 everyday players.

 

I'm an admitted homer.

[moonslav59]

Asking a serious question of when was the last time any of your BTV suggested trades actually happened was not complaining. Just curious.

 

I answered. I don't care. I don't make most of them to try and predict a trade, and many I would not make as the Sox GM. I do it to see what the approximate value it might take to give to get a person of my interest or someone else's.

 

Why should I care, under those circumstances.

 

If I had to guess, since the site has not been around all that long, maybe 0 to 1. I know I got a few right before BTV.

 

I only do Sox trade suggestions, and since we've made close to zero trades, my guess is zero.

 

I did get the signing of Cody Ross right. Does that count?

[mvp 78]

In '22 and '23, the answer is obvious -- according to any media covering the club, including Papelbon in the NESN studio.

 

But the Sox didn't fall in '21 until the postseason, when the lack of bullpen reinforcements -- compared to the team that won the pennant -- kept them from the World Series.

 

A better deadline than Robles and Davis may have put them over the top!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we guessed on the prospects DD acquired from Ben (and Theo,) we'd have been wrong on almost everyone, except Devers and maybe Casas.

 

If I had to guess, now...

 

Out of Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Bleis: 1-2 might be stars and 3-4 might be FT players. A chance 3 are stars.

 

Out of Rafaela, Yorke, Perales, Wikelman. Abreu, Murphy, Valdez and Gambrell: 1 might become a star, maybe 0, and maybe 1-3 become everyday players.

 

I like this group: Cespedes, Zanetello, Joh Garcia, Monegro, Anderson and maybe Romero to produce 1-2 stars and 2-3 everyday players.

 

I'm an admitted homer.

 

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

 

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

[dgalehouse]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

 

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

 

Phillies fans will fill Citizens Bank Park tonight and have a great time cheering on their team. But little do they know that three years from now, their farm will be as bare as Lady Godiva's behind. No Zanatellos or Manegros to get excited about. Have to pity the fools.

[Old Red]

I answered. I don't care. I don't make most of them to try and predict a trade, and many I would not make as the Sox GM. I do it to see what the approximate value it might take to give to get a person of my interest or someone else's.

 

Why should I care, under those circumstances.

 

If I had to guess, since the site has not been around all that long, maybe 0 to 1. I know I got a few right before BTV.

 

I only do Sox trade suggestions, and since we've made close to zero trades, my guess is zero.

 

I did get the signing of Cody Ross right. Does that count?

 

I’ve actually liked some of your trade suggestions, but like I said just curious.

[moonslav59]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

 

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

 

Not many were complaining about DD until maybe 2019. A few were projecting "trouble ahead" ( I won't say the "C word.")

[moonslav59]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

 

How many do you think will be stars or everyday players?

 

I hope it's more than Houck, Dalbec and Crawford in the 5 year period starting with Casas & Bello.

[notin]

Woodruff's career is most likely over.

 

Maybe. It’s definitely over in Milwaukee…

[notin]

Asking a serious question of when was the last time any of your BTV suggested trades actually happened was not complaining. Just curious.

 

Asking a serious question - why do you belittle baseball fans for talking about baseball and for getting excited when their team is doing well?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How many do you think will be stars or everyday players?

 

I hope it's more than Houck, Dalbec and Crawford in the 5 year period starting with Casas & Bello.

 

From this highly-touted group, I'd say four regulars, who if they hang in there long enough should have two All-Stars (that it, two selected to an AS team, but without MVP votes or HOF WAR).

 

The odds are so against an actual group making the majors together in two or three-year spans, and then all becoming immediate All-Stars or even Rookie of the Years...

 

... like the Braves: Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris etc.

 

Plus, though the Sox have a history of homegrown stars, there are plenty of overrated prospects who also fizzle out, once they arrive in the MLB (and leagues develop "books" on them).

 

Guys that are really young have plenty of time to develop talents, but that's also extra time to pick up bad habits, unhealthy lifestyles, and subsequent injuries that may hamper progress.

 

To that end, there's something to be said for drafting solid college stars like Matt McLain -- he may have a lower ceiling than 5-tool teenagers, but there's a higher floor to count on...

[notin]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

 

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

 

DD only signed Schwarber, Castellanos and Turner. And there probably are more of them than you can possibly imagine.

 

Of course we’re talking about Philadelphia sports fans here. They’re going to complain no matter what…

[moonslav59]

From this highly-touted group, I'd say four regulars, who if they hang in there long enough should have two All-Stars (that it, two selected to an AS team, but without MVP votes or HOF WAR).

 

The odds are so against an actual group making the majors together in two or three-year spans, and then all becoming immediate All-Stars or even Rookie of the Years...

 

... like the Braves: Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris etc.

 

Plus, though the Sox have a history of homegrown stars, there are plenty of overrated prospects who also fizzle out, once they arrive in the MLB (and leagues develop "books" on them).

 

Guys that are really young have plenty of time to develop talents, but that's also extra time to pick up bad habits, unhealthy lifestyles, and subsequent injuries that may hamper progress.

 

To that end, there's something to be said for drafting solid college stars like Matt McLain -- he may have a lower ceiling than 5-tool teenagers, but there's a higher floor to count on...

 

Fair enough. I guess, overall, I'd project 3-4 will be stars (more likely 2 than 5) and 3-4 more will be decent everyday play types (better than replacement players.)

[Randy Red Sox]

Phillies fans will fill Citizens Bank Park tonight and have a great time cheering on their team. But little do they know that three years from now, their farm will be as bare as Lady Godiva's behind. No Zanatellos or Manegros to get excited about. Have to pity the fools.

 

or maybe DD has/will do what he did in Boston. Keep the prospects that are really good and trade the ones that are at least over-rated.

[Randy Red Sox]

DD only signed Schwarber, Castellanos and Turner. And there probably are more of them than you can possibly imagine.

 

Of course we’re talking about Philadelphia sports fans here. They’re going to complain no matter what…

 

 

unlike Boston fans

[moonslav59]

DD only signed Schwarber, Castellanos and Turner. And there probably are more of them than you can possibly imagine.

 

$Millions

300/11 Trea Turner

115/5 Realmuto

100/5 Castellanos

79/4 Schwarber

72/4 T Walker

40/3 Z Eflin

28/2 Gregorius

17/2 J Segura

17/2 Neris

15/2 M Strahm

13/1 Syndergaard

10/1 Knebel

10/1 Kimbrel

10/1 D Robertson

10/1 K Gibson

10/2 B Miller

9/1 McCutchen

6/1 BHand, J Familia, Arrieta & Archie Bradley

5/1 Ian Kennedy

 

Must be nice to have a bunch of $10M/1 deals ranked 12th and lower on your signings list over 3 years.