A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

that is really my main point but if this woman fabricated her story she needs to be held accountable as she has basically destroyed at least temporarily his career

 

Can you take this to the thread on Bauer?

[moonslav59]

Accounting for inflation, Pedro’s 6 year $75mil contract in 1998 might be near the top…

 

Moncada should make the list, but I'm not sure what we paid him...

[Randy Red Sox]

sorry no can do. saw it somewhere but did not bookmark. Look it up. I am sure you can find it.

[Randy Red Sox]

Moncada should make the list, but I'm not sure what we paid him...

 

we traded Moncda before we really had to pay him.

[moonslav59]

we traded Moncda before we really had to pay him.

 

True, but that $32M signing bonus was paid, plus I think there was a big "posting fee" we had to pay.

 

$32M is what we paid Jansen for 2 years, and he made the list.

[moonslav59]

Here is an early breakdown of our returning everyday players. I will do the pitching, later. I tried to stay realistic and temper my optimism, and also attempted to give a window of expectation between the good and not so good possible outcomes.

 

I did not do rookies with too few PAs in 2023.

 

Duran: perhaps no player is harder to project than Jarren. He’s been up and down, mostly up in the minors. He’s changed his hitting approach more times than years in the system. His defense was so bad at 2B, they moved him to the OF, where he was horrific, until some sort of miraculous event occurred before 2023, and he actually looked like he was only half bad. That being said, he still has a ways to go on D to be a capable CF’er. I’d prefer he be our LF’er in 2024- perhaps platooning with Refsnyder.

Optimistic view: He repeats his 2023 season over 550 PAs and maybe even improves upon it. If he plays FT and leads off, he could get double his PAs of 2023 and end up with this line: .295 16 80 (.828 OPS) with 48 SBs and 4 CS. Perhaps, the best we can expect would be .300 18 90 with 50+ SBs and a .840 OPS.

Pessimistic view: He reverts to his old self as a sub .700 hitter who is weak on D. He could add value as a PR, if he does well enough with the bat and D to stay on the 26.

 

Verdugo: might be the easiest to project. He’s been pretty steady with his numbers. His D looked way better in 2023 than any other season, but his OPS has been between .732 and .777 since becoming a FT’er in 2021. (He was .844 in 2020 as a FT’er in a short season.) His splits indicate he may b est be used in a long side platoon. Career: .807 vs RHPs/ .665 v LHPs (.609 in ’23.)

Optimistic view: He can hit like he did from 2019-2020: .300 20 65 projected to 650 with an .827 OPS. Realistically, maybe his high end is .800 to .820. Good D.

Pessimistic view: He could do worse than his .732 OPS in 2022- maybe somewhere near .700 to .725 with okay D.

Refsnyder: has been our top OPS guy vs LHPs since 2022. It’s not really even close. His D is subpar. He has a .604 career OPD vs RHPs, so should probably never start vs one, unless it’s an emergency.

Optimistic view: He keeps doing very well vs LHPs as a platoon in LH or possible some as a DH or in RF in some parks.

Pessimistic view: He continues struggling, like he did to end the 2023 season, even vs lefties. He may end up traded or DFA’d, even if we don’t add an OF RHB like Duvall. With Rafaela and Abreu pushing for playing time in the OF, Ref could be the odd man out.

 

Devers: has been pretty steady, except on D. He’s been between .851 and .890 over the last 3 years. It’s a bit worrisome he has not come close to his .916 OPS in 2019 at age 22, but his OPS+ has been: 132, 134, 141 and 126 the last 4 full seasons (2020’s 107 left out.)

Optimistic view: He is in peak prime years, now. I think it is reasonable to think he can hit over .900, again. Maybe 40 HRs and 120 + RBI. Perhaps he could play D, like he has in stretches shown in previous seasons.

Pessimistic view: He hits under .850 and continues his poor defense.

 

Casas: seems to have the most upside of any FT players returning from the 2023 season. His approach is great. He is very patient hitter, who seemed to greatly improve as the season unfolded. As a rookie, I think the umps were tough on him early on, with balls and stikes calls. He ended up at .856, but finished the season at .974 in his last 322 PAs.

Optimistic view: He continues at the rate he finished the year, he’d be at .307 36 100. I’m not sure he can do better than that, but that’s pretty damn good.

Pessimistic view: Maybe he ends up at .275 25 75 with a .825 OPS.

 

Story: is another tough nut to crack. The injury has taken its toll on his recent numbers and may have even affected his numbers during is last year with COL. He hasn’t lost a thing on D, except maybe some arm strength and a higher risk of re-injury. He turns 31, soon, so an optimistic view should probably not be to expect to repeat what he did with COL, even after park adjustments.

Optimistic view: He had a .909 OPS from 2018-2020 and an OPS+ of 123 (which adjusts for park influence.) He’s been at .744, the last 3 seasons, combined and .685 with BOS in 564 PAs. My guess at a high end but reasonable expectation might be .250 25 95 (.825-.850 OPS w 20+ SBs)

Pessimistic view: Some might say under his .685 OPS with the Sox, as he is only getting older, but I don’t think so. I’m setting the floor at .240 20 75 (with a .750 OPS and 15+ SBs)

 

Wong: might be close to Duran in predictability for 2024. Of course, catcher defense and how they help or hinder the staff they catch is one of baseball’s most difficult skills to identify and quantify, but it seems he can continue to improve in that area. His offense is hard to know.

Optimistic view: He improves on D, especially framing and blocking. He’s already excellent on keeping the opponent’s running game in check. His offense showed some real promise in 2023. He reached his highest OPS of the season in mid September (.721 on 9/11,) but finished the season at a .198 Ops and a final .673 number. I would think his high might be over .725.

Pessimistic view: He ends up being a .650 to .675 batter with issues framing and blocking on D.

 

McGuire: has been in the bigs long enough to have an idea of what to expect. Apparently, he was a good defensive catcher, when we got him, but that became a question in 2023. He had a career .687 OPS before Boston and jumped to .740 with the Sox. However, he was at .688 in 2024.

Optimistic view: I don’t think over .725 is unreasonable. Good D, but not great.

Pessimist view: He hits around .670-.680 and does not improve on decent D.

 

Urias: it’s not even a certainty we allow him to go to arb or sign him pre-arb. He did not really distinguish himself after we acquired him at the deadline, or before hand prior to the trade in 2023. His 2021-2022 numbers do offer some promise.

Optimistic view: He repeats his 2021 season with 650 PAs: .249 25 80. Perhaps just repeating his 2021-2022 average over 650 PAs would also be optimistic: .244 24 75. He has a career dWAR of +2.1, which is about +0.7 per 150 games. Could he hit .250 27 90?

Pessimist view: He stays like he was in 2023-m about .200 10 40. Yuck!

 

Reyes: did pretty well with us over 64 games, but had never really looked this good since his rookie year in 2018, where he only had 63 PAs. He’s okay on D but nothing great.

Optimistic view: He repeats his line with Boston over 650 PAs: .287 6 60 with 21 SBs and a .716 OPS.

Pessimistic view: He does worse than his line before Boston: .238 13 30 with a .667 OPS.

 

 

 

 

[notin]

Here is an early breakdown of our returning everyday players. I will do the pitching, later. I tried to stay realistic and temper my optimism, and also attempted to give a window of expectation between the good and not so good possible outcomes.

 

I did not do rookies with too few PAs in 2023.

 

Duran: perhaps no player is harder to project than Jarren. He’s been up and down, mostly up in the minors. He’s changed his hitting approach more times than years in the system. His defense was so bad at 2B, they moved him to the OF, where he was horrific, until some sort of miraculous event occurred before 2023, and he actually looked like he was only half bad. That being said, he still has a ways to go on D to be a capable CF’er. I’d prefer he be our LF’er in 2024- perhaps platooning with Refsnyder.

Optimistic view: He repeats his 2023 season over 550 PAs and maybe even improves upon it. If he plays FT and leads off, he could get double his PAs of 2023 and end up with this line: .295 16 80 (.828 OPS) with 48 SBs and 4 CS. Perhaps, the best we can expect would be .300 18 90 with 50+ SBs and a .840 OPS.

Pessimistic view: He reverts to his old self as a sub .700 hitter who is weak on D. He could add value as a PR, if he does well enough with the bat and D to stay on the 26.

 

Verdugo: might be the easiest to project. He’s been pretty steady with his numbers. His D looked way better in 2023 than any other season, but his OPS has been between .732 and .777 since becoming a FT’er in 2021. (He was .844 in 2020 as a FT’er in a short season.) His splits indicate he may b est be used in a long side platoon. Career: .807 vs RHPs/ .665 v LHPs (.609 in ’23.)

Optimistic view: He can hit like he did from 2019-2020: .300 20 65 projected to 650 with an .827 OPS. Realistically, maybe his high end is .800 to .820. Good D.

Pessimistic view: He could do worse than his .732 OPS in 2022- maybe somewhere near .700 to .725 with okay D.

Refsnyder: has been our top OPS guy vs LHPs since 2022. It’s not really even close. His D is subpar. He has a .604 career OPD vs RHPs, so should probably never start vs one, unless it’s an emergency.

Optimistic view: He keeps doing very well vs LHPs as a platoon in LH or possible some as a DH or in RF in some parks.

Pessimistic view: He continues struggling, like he did to end the 2023 season, even vs lefties. He may end up traded or DFA’d, even if we don’t add an OF RHB like Duvall. With Rafaela and Abreu pushing for playing time in the OF, Ref could be the odd man out.

 

Devers: has been pretty steady, except on D. He’s been between .851 and .890 over the last 3 years. It’s a bit worrisome he has not come close to his .916 OPS in 2019 at age 22, but his OPS+ has been: 132, 134, 141 and 126 the last 4 full seasons (2020’s 107 left out.)

Optimistic view: He is in peak prime years, now. I think it is reasonable to think he can hit over .900, again. Maybe 40 HRs and 120 + RBI. Perhaps he could play D, like he has in stretches shown in previous seasons.

Pessimistic view: He hits under .850 and continues his poor defense.

 

Casas: seems to have the most upside of any FT players returning from the 2023 season. His approach is great. He is very patient hitter, who seemed to greatly improve as the season unfolded. As a rookie, I think the umps were tough on him early on, with balls and stikes calls. He ended up at .856, but finished the season at .974 in his last 322 PAs.

Optimistic view: He continues at the rate he finished the year, he’d be at .307 36 100. I’m not sure he can do better than that, but that’s pretty damn good.

Pessimistic view: Maybe he ends up at .275 25 75 with a .825 OPS.

 

Story: is another tough nut to crack. The injury has taken its toll on his recent numbers and may have even affected his numbers during is last year with COL. He hasn’t lost a thing on D, except maybe some arm strength and a higher risk of re-injury. He turns 31, soon, so an optimistic view should probably not be to expect to repeat what he did with COL, even after park adjustments.

Optimistic view: He had a .909 OPS from 2018-2020 and an OPS+ of 123 (which adjusts for park influence.) He’s been at .744, the last 3 seasons, combined and .685 with BOS in 564 PAs. My guess at a high end but reasonable expectation might be .250 25 95 (.825-.850 OPS w 20+ SBs)

Pessimistic view: Some might say under his .685 OPS with the Sox, as he is only getting older, but I don’t think so. I’m setting the floor at .240 20 75 (with a .750 OPS and 15+ SBs)

 

Wong: might be close to Duran in predictability for 2024. Of course, catcher defense and how they help or hinder the staff they catch is one of baseball’s most difficult skills to identify and quantify, but it seems he can continue to improve in that area. His offense is hard to know.

Optimistic view: He improves on D, especially framing and blocking. He’s already excellent on keeping the opponent’s running game in check. His offense showed some real promise in 2023. He reached his highest OPS of the season in mid September (.721 on 9/11,) but finished the season at a .198 Ops and a final .673 number. I would think his high might be over .725.

Pessimistic view: He ends up being a .650 to .675 batter with issues framing and blocking on D.

 

McGuire: has been in the bigs long enough to have an idea of what to expect. Apparently, he was a good defensive catcher, when we got him, but that became a question in 2023. He had a career .687 OPS before Boston and jumped to .740 with the Sox. However, he was at .688 in 2024.

Optimistic view: I don’t think over .725 is unreasonable. Good D, but not great.

Pessimist view: He hits around .670-.680 and does not improve on decent D.

 

Urias: it’s not even a certainty we allow him to go to arb or sign him pre-arb. He did not really distinguish himself after we acquired him at the deadline, or before hand prior to the trade in 2023. His 2021-2022 numbers do offer some promise.

Optimistic view: He repeats his 2021 season with 650 PAs: .249 25 80. Perhaps just repeating his 2021-2022 average over 650 PAs would also be optimistic: .244 24 75. He has a career dWAR of +2.1, which is about +0.7 per 150 games. Could he hit .250 27 90?

Pessimist view: He stays like he was in 2023-m about .200 10 40. Yuck!

 

Reyes: did pretty well with us over 64 games, but had never really looked this good since his rookie year in 2018, where he only had 63 PAs. He’s okay on D but nothing great.

Optimistic view: He repeats his line with Boston over 650 PAs: .287 6 60 with 21 SBs and a .716 OPS.

Pessimistic view: He does worse than his line before Boston: .238 13 30 with a .667 OPS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Sox drafted Duran and announced him as an outfielder. He did play 20 games in Low A ball at 2b, but I don’t think they impacted the decision to move him to outfield. (I can’t even verify if they were his first 20 games.).

 

It’s actually not uncommon to draft a player at one position with the intent of moving him to another. I once listened to an interview with Brandon Inge and he talked about getting drafted. He got the call saying he was a second round selection of the Detroit Tigers, received his congrats, and hung up. Several minutes later, Inge got another call and was told “by the way, you’re going to be playing catcher.” As Inge had only played shortstop in his days at VCU and never even thought about catcher, he had some mixed emotions.

 

In similar fashion , it wouldn’t surprise me if the Sox folks at the time felt Duran’s speed would be better utilized in the outfield before they even selected him…

[notin]

Also Reyes isn’t an everyday player. And you dramatically shortchange Urias as a hitter. He has a very selective batting eye…

[moonslav59]

Also Reyes isn’t an everyday player. And you dramatically shortchange Urias as a hitter. He has a very selective batting eye…

 

You think saying "Could he hit .250 27 90" is short-changing him?

 

I thought you said, at one time, he might not even be offered arb.

[Nick]

Per MassLive

 

SS/CF Kiké Hernández: F- (Cotillo) / F (McAdam) He sucked and shame on Cora for playing him longer than he had to....anything was better.

 

2B Christian Arroyo: F (Cotillo) / F (McAdam)....and some of us thought he would be okay as a starter

 

INF Pablo Reyes: B (Cotillo) / C (McAdam)..ultimate utility guy....he's not fat like others

 

SS Yu Chang: C (Cotillo) / D (McAdam)....I thought he was solid, of course he looked good after the Kike experiment

 

2B Luis Urías: D (Cotillo) / D (McAdam)

 

2B Enmanuel Valdez: C (Cotillo) / C- (McAdam)...I'm pretty sure Moon thinks Urias is better

 

3B Rafael Devers: B+ (Cotillo) / A- (McAdam) And we worry about this guy after insisting for 365 days how we had to extend him.

 

 

1B Triston Casas: A (Cotillo) / B+ (McAdam)...His 2022 numbers to Duran's 2023 numbers were similar. Yet we harp on Duran's small sample size.

 

DH/1B Justin Turner: A (Cotillo) / A (McAdam)

 

SS Trevor Story: D+ (Cotillo) / D+ (McAdam)....still better than Kike

 

C Reese McGuire: C (Cotillo) / C- (McAdam) average is okay since the team was below average

 

C Connor Wong: C (Cotillo) / C (McAdam)...ditto

 

OF Rob Refsnyder: D (Cotillo) / D (McAdam)...never get enamored with mediocre baseball player.....D is still a D. Good thing we locked him up for 2024.

 

OF Adam Duvall: B (Cotillo) / B (McAdam)

 

CF Jarren Duran: A- (Cotillo) / B (McAdam)...why trade a future all star?

 

LF Masataka Yoshida: B (Cotillo) / B (McAdam) at some point most of you turned on him. I thought he did what he was asked.

 

RF Alex Verdugo: C (Cotillo) / C+ (McAdam)....and many here can't live without him. $10M for this guy?

[moonslav59]

No major disagreements on any of the 3 report cards listed for 2023.

[Nick]

No major disagreements on any of the 3 report cards listed for 2023.

 

funny....

[moonslav59]

funny....

 

Devers getting a B+ must be based on expectations.

[notin]

You think saying "Could he hit .250 27 90" is short-changing him?

 

I thought you said, at one time, he might not even be offered arb.

 

And he might not be. It all depends on how whoever ids calling the shots feels about him.

 

If you want a RH 2b with good OBP skills and some pop, he’s very good choice. If you want someone with great to elite defensive skills, he falls further down the ladder.

 

He also might simply be too expensive. Or the new boss might decide Story was a better 2b solution and focus on a SS.

 

So yes, Urias might be non-tendered…

[moonslav59]

And he might not be. It all depends on how whoever ids calling the shots feels about him.

 

If you want a RH 2b with good OBP skills and some pop, he’s very good choice. If you want someone with great to elite defensive skills, he falls further down the ladder.

 

He also might simply be too expensive. Or the new boss might decide Story was a better 2b solution and focus on a SS.

 

So yes, Urias might be non-tendered…

 

How did I "dramatically short-change Urias as a hitter"?

[Old Red]

And he might not be. It all depends on how whoever ids calling the shots feels about him.

 

If you want a RH 2b with good OBP skills and some pop, he’s very good choice. If you want someone with great to elite defensive skills, he falls further down the ladder.

 

He also might simply be too expensive. Or the new boss might decide Story was a better 2b solution and focus on a SS.

 

So yes, Urias might be non-tendered…

 

I don’t believe Story is going anywhere, but SS anytime soon.

[moonslav59]

I don’t believe Story is going anywhere, but SS anytime soon.

 

He's going to SS? From where?

[notin]

I don’t believe Story is going anywhere, but SS anytime soon.

 

It’s possible but that’s not your call. And the guy who brought him in to play shortstop is no longer with the organization.

 

The fact remains the Sox could hire a new CBO who views Story as a better option for 2b than SS…

[mvp 78]

I don't think Duran is a future All Star.

[Old Red]

It’s possible but that’s not your call. And the guy who brought him in to play shortstop is no longer with the organization.

 

The fact remains the Sox could hire a new CBO who views Story as a better option for 2b than SS…

 

I don’t think Bloom being gone has one tinkers dam to do with if Story plays SS, or not. Cora makes that decision just like he said Raffy will be the 3B next year, and I don’t see Cora taking Story off SS. You have more of a chance of your wish to have Chapman playing 3B for the Sox next year, which is next to nothing too.

[notin]

I don’t think Bloom being gone has one tinkers dam to do with if Story plays SS, or not. Cora makes that decision just like he said Raffy will be the 3B next year, and I don’t see Cora taking Story off SS. You have more of a chance of your wish to have Chapman playing 3B for the Sox next year, which is next to nothing too.

 

So they’re going to continue with obvious mistakes? That’s not exactly a winning endorsement against my ideas.

 

But even Sean McDonough said Story should be the second baseman. I can’t speak for Story if he has a preference one way out the other, but whoever the Sox hire might like the idea of returning him to second. Even if it’s improbable, it’s not impossible like you say…

[notin]

I don't think Duran is a future All Star.

 

He certainly is not a present day one. It’s really his only chance…

Edited October 16, 2023 by notin

[Dipre]

I don’t think Bloom being gone has one tinkers dam to do with if Story plays SS, or not. Cora makes that decision just like he said Raffy will be the 3B next year, and I don’t see Cora taking Story off SS. You have more of a chance of your wish to have Chapman playing 3B for the Sox next year, which is next to nothing too.

 

Cora is not the head of the FO. Stop beating that drum. It's an incorrect take. Whoever is hired as GM will have ultimate say in who plays. It's like you telling me my secretary has final say on which clients I receive when. She has input, but in the end, I decide, as I am her boss.

[Old Red]

So they’re going to continue with obvious mistakes? That’s not exactly a winning endorsement against my ideas.

 

But even Sean McDonough said Story should be the second baseman. I can’t speak for Story if he has a preference one way out the other, but whoever the Sox hire might like the idea of returning him to second. Even if it’s improbable, it’s not impossible like you say…

Yes it sounds like the Red Sox will continue with your obvious mistakes of Raffy at 3B, Story at SS, and Casas at 1B. That’s the cards they have dealt themselves, and the way that Cora is most likely to go. Story was going to be the opening day SS last year, before he got hurt, and that is where he wants to play. If you wish you can think he’ll be moved to 2B, but most likely a wish that won’t be granted. He’s a excellent SS, and all the current problems the Red Sox have I don’t think moving Story off SS is on the list if aBloom is still there, or they hire Joe s*** The Rag Man.

[notin]

Yes it sounds like the Red Sox will continue with your obvious mistakes of Raffy at 3B, Story at SS, and Casas at 1B. That’s the cards they have dealt themselves, and the way that Cora is most likely to go. Story was going to be the opening day SS last year, before he got hurt, and that is where he wants to play. If you wish you can think he’ll be moved to 2B, but most likely a wish that won’t be granted. He’s a excellent SS, and all the current problems the Red Sox have I don’t think moving Story off SS is on the list if aBloom is still there, or they hire Joe s*** The Rag Man.

 

It’s not a wish. I’m just acknowledging the possibility that whoever is in charge will have ideas that differ from last year’s lineup.

 

And if the Sox do hire someone who shakes up the infield, it’s pretty doubtful Cora will put up a fuss. Most likely he will go along…

[Old Red]

It’s not a wish. I’m just acknowledging the possibility that whoever is in charge will have ideas that differ from last year’s lineup.

 

And if the Sox do hire someone who shakes up the infield, it’s pretty doubtful Cora will put up a fuss. Most likely he will go along…

 

Daydreaming all you want if it makes you feel better.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Duran is a future All Star.

 

I'd agree the odds are low.

 

Although he beat out the injured Duvall for more innings in CF, and Duvall may not be back, I see Duran as our LF'er not CF'er in 2024.

 

We could see some major changes in our OF innings allotments, even if we don't trade Dugo or Duran.

 

1. Yoshida will likely be a near FT DH.

2. Rafaela and or Abreu could eran some serious innings in the OF.

3. Refsnyders role as a straight platoon may be eliminated, if we try to keep Rafaela and Abreu on the 26 (unless no Dugo, Duran and no Duvall return.)

 

Here were the 2023 innings in LF, CF, RF:

 

CF

557 Duran

478 Duvall

117 Rafaela (was on farm for much of '23)

87 Kike

85 Abreu (on farm, too)

68 Refsnyder (68, too many)

38 Tapia

 

RF

1170 Dugo

180 Duvall (Could he be the FT RF'er in '24?)

52 Tapia

20 Refsnyder

7 Abreu

1 Duran

 

LF

713 Yoshida (to DH?)

347 Refsnyder

173 Duran (more here in '24)

86 Tapia

76 Abreu

35 Duvall

 

Assuming no additions, could this be the 2024 totals?

No injuries

LF

1000 Duran

300 Refsnyder

100 Yoshida

50 Abreu

CF

1000 Rafaela

450 Abreu

RF

1000 Dugo

450 Abreu

 

[moonslav59]

Daydreaming all you want if it makes you feel better.

 

He did not mean it wasn't a wish but a "daydream."

 

He's just pointing out the new GM or CBO may have a different idea on where Story plays. He's not saying it will happen; it will likely happen; or he wants it to happen.

 

I don't think anyone wants Story at 2B, since we have no other capable SS, right now. Maybe the next GM gets one, and enacts a change. Probably not, but possible.

[notin]

Daydreaming all you want if it makes you feel better.

 

I’m starting to realize just how bad your reading comprehension is…

[Old Red]

He did not mean it wasn't a wish but a "daydream."

 

He's just pointing out the new GM or CBO may have a different idea on where Story plays. He's not saying it will happen; it will likely happen; or he wants it to happen.

 

I don't think anyone wants Story at 2B, since we have no other capable SS, right now. Maybe the next GM gets one, and enacts a change. Probably not, but possible.

 

All you guys were all pondering last offseason after Bogey signed with SD, and before Story got hurt on who the Red Sox were going to get to play SS, because you thought Story should stay at 2B, and I kept saying all along that Story was going to be the SS, which he would have if he hadn’t gotten hurt. I was right then, and I believe I’m right now that barring injury Story will be the opening SS of day 1 in 2024. Is that a 100% certainly? If you want to say no fine.