Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Even with just a couple minor additions, we still have a chance in 2024. Yes, it's not likely, but we could get a confluence of things going well and be a surprise team. I'm just not seeing much to be optimistic about, right now.

 

I'll still watch every pitch of every game.

 

I’m still optimistic. Why? Ok

 

Starting at the 78 win baseline, and hoping to see:

 

1. Actual defense in the middle of the diamond.

2. A very effective bullpen that houses Houck and/or Whitlock all year (more likely with additions).

3. A full season of Tristan Casas post-adjustments

4. A more settled and improved Masatska Yoshida

5. Steps forward from Brayan Bello and the severely underrated and underappreciated Kutter Crawford

6. Outfield defense. It might exist next season.

7. A healthy Jarren Duran hopefully proving 2023 is not a fluke (with acknowledgement that Duran is still a viable trade candidate).

8. Option year Pivetta!

9. Vaughn Grissom, who can hopefully supplant Vaughn Eshelman as the New Greatest Vaughn in Sox History.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not confused about my own feelings.

 

In a way, I feel less confused, now that the "cat is out of the bag."

 

They have said they want to spend less than 2023. That's all I need to know to feel very confident with my pessimism.

 

But they didn't actually say that. See what I mean?

[Old Red]

I’m still optimistic. Why? Ok

 

Starting at the 78 win baseline, and hoping to see:

 

1. Actual defense in the middle of the diamond.

2. A very effective bullpen that houses Houck and/or Whitlock all year (more likely with additions).

3. A full season of Tristan Casas post-adjustments

4. A more settled and improved Masatska Yoshida

5. Steps forward from Brayan Bello and the severely underrated and underappreciated Kutter Crawford

6. Outfield defense. It might exist next season.

7. A healthy Jarren Duran hopefully proving 2023 is not a fluke (with acknowledgement that Duran is still a viable trade candidate).

8. Option year Pivetta!

9. Vaughn Grissom, who can hopefully supplant Vaughn Eshelman as the New Greatest Vaughn in Sox History.

I agree, but I’m not starting with a 78 win baseline. It’s a whole different season. If the Red Sox could go back, and replay last season all over again that 78 may be better, and it also may have been worse.

[Old Red]

But they didn't actually say that. See what I mean?

 

What part of the lever pulling didn’t you understand?

[notin]

I agree, but I’m not starting with a 78 win baseline. It’s a whole different season. If the Red Sox could go back, and replay last season all over again that 78 may be better, and it also may have been worse.

 

Fair.

 

Some of those “improvements” involve compensating for departures.

 

But I still think ours overall a better team than last year. And I didn’t even mention Giolito…

[Bellhorn04]

What part of the lever pulling didn’t you understand?

 

It was pressing levers, man. Gotta keep Tommy's terminology straight here.

[Old Red]

Fair.

 

Some of those “improvements” involve compensating for departures.

 

But I still think ours overall a better team than last year. And I didn’t even mention Giolito…

 

To me outside of SP the outfield is still a big unknown to me. Duran, Raf Man, and Abreu. Nobody at this point knows what you got there.

[Bellhorn04]

Fair.

 

Some of those “improvements” involve compensating for departures.

 

But I still think ours overall a better team than last year. And I didn’t even mention Giolito…

 

The X factor is off the charts. And that includes Giolito, the man with the career ERA of 4.43 and career FIP of 4.44.

[Old Red]

It was pressing levers, man. Gotta keep Tommy's terminology straight here.

 

I guess I was just waiting for Tom to start The Let’s Go Red Sox chant.

[Hitch]

There's more rumblings around Framber Valdez today. If he's available we really should be in on him with them looking for a left handed batter with speed.

 

Not to mention if our big 3 work out

Marcelo Mayer

Roman Anthony

Kyle Teel

 

Along with our fringe players

Wilyer Abreu

Emmanuel Valdez

 

Added to our every day players

Jaren Duran

Triston Casas

Masataka Yoshida

Rafael Devers

 

We will have 9 left handed hitters in the team at the end of this year. We really could do with a trade or two to balance that out.

Edited January 25, 2024 by Hitch

[moonslav59]

I’m still optimistic. Why? Ok

 

Starting at the 78 win baseline, and hoping to see:

 

1. Actual defense in the middle of the diamond.

2. A very effective bullpen that houses Houck and/or Whitlock all year (more likely with additions).

3. A full season of Tristan Casas post-adjustments

4. A more settled and improved Masatska Yoshida

5. Steps forward from Brayan Bello and the severely underrated and underappreciated Kutter Crawford

6. Outfield defense. It might exist next season.

7. A healthy Jarren Duran hopefully proving 2023 is not a fluke (with acknowledgement that Duran is still a viable trade candidate).

8. Option year Pivetta!

9. Vaughn Grissom, who can hopefully supplant Vaughn Eshelman as the New Greatest Vaughn in Sox History.

 

Okay. I listed 30 thi8ngs that "could go right" in another post.

 

All of your nine listed could happen, and maybe even should happen, but we all know the odds are some will not. Maybe something else happens to outweigh ones that don't go right.

 

I do think there are some slivers of hope, and enough of them to have some optimism, but without the commitment from the FO, I can't get excited.

 

You, yourself have gone on and on about our failure not to make deadline moves to get us over the hump. You blame the FO for the team not doing better. Now, the FO is not even trying in the winter, and we can bet they won't at the deadline either.

 

I'm not going to criticize anyone for being optimistic. I'm just not there, right now. I might not ever get there in 2024.

 

I do think our D will improve from 28th to 30th up to near 15th.

 

I think our offense will end up near #10.

 

I think our pen could be #5-14th, depending on how Houck and Crawford are used, and how taxed it will be in 2024.

 

For argument's sake, let's say 10th O, 10th pen, 15th D. That, alone should give us enough hope to be at least cautiously optimistic.

 

I guess I vale the rotation more than some. Yes, I know about the Royals winning a ring with one that looks worse than ours does, now. I'm just thinking too much has to go exactly right, for us to have a real chance at the playoffs.

 

Maybe, as we near ST'ing, my opinion will change. Maybe not.

[moonslav59]

But they didn't actually say that. See what I mean?

 

No, but when you say it "probably will be..." I'm thinking they don't lie in that direction.

 

“It probably will be lower than it was in 2023,” Kennedy said before the team’s Winter Weekend began at the MassMutual Center. “I don’t know that for sure. We don’t talk about specific payroll numbers.”

[Bellhorn04]

No, but when you say it "probably will be..." I'm thinking they don't lie in that direction.

 

“It probably will be lower than it was in 2023,” Kennedy said before the team’s Winter Weekend began at the MassMutual Center. “I don’t know that for sure. We don’t talk about specific payroll numbers.”

 

Oh I get what you're saying. But he did backpedal immediately, too. And Werner insisted that they don't have a fixed budget number this past weekend.

 

It's all part of the circus of confusion.

[moonslav59]

Fair.

 

Some of those “improvements” involve compensating for departures.

 

But I still think ours overall a better team than last year. And I didn’t even mention Giolito…

 

I'm optimistic that Gio will outpitch what we got from Paxton and Sale in 2023, but it by no means an odds on thing to expect.

 

2023:

Gio 33 GS and 184 IP

4.88 ERA/5.27 FIP/ 1.31 WHIP

 

Sale 20 GS 102 IP

4.30 ERA/ 3.80 FIP/ 1.13 WHIP

 

Paxton 19 GS 96 IP

4.50 ERA/ 4.68 FIP/ 1.31 WHIP

 

Combine Sale & Paxton and it's about....

39 GS

199 IP

4.40 ERA

4.15 FIP

1.22 WHIP

 

[moonslav59]

Oh I get what you're saying. But he did backpedal immediately, too. And Werner insisted that they don't have a fixed budget number this past weekend.

 

It's all part of the circus of confusion.

 

Do you expect us to spend more than 2023, which was still not real close to the first tax line?

[Old Red]

Oh I get what you're saying. But he did backpedal immediately, too. And Werner insisted that they don't have a fixed budget number this past weekend.

 

It's all part of the circus of confusion.

 

Maybe it’s looking for that 3rd option in the fork in the road that seems to be the organizations identity now.

[mvp 78]

I’m as optimistic as anyone. Do I think that is reachable? Yes. Likely? Not so much.

 

But again - off-season isn’t done yet..,

 

It was over before it began.

[mvp 78]

Even with just a couple minor additions, we still have a chance in 2024. Yes, it's not likely, but we could get a confluence of things going well and be a surprise team. I'm just not seeing much to be optimistic about, right now.

 

I'll still watch every pitch of every game.

 

I won't even watch all of the games in the first week. 7 of the first 10 games start at 9:40 pm or later for me.

[notin]

It was over before it began.

 

It seems that way to some, but so many teams are acting the same as Boston that it simply has not worked out for every free agent. Either the players have to come down, the teams go back up, or both. But right now it’s just too much of a stand-off…

[mvp 78]

I’m still optimistic. Why? Ok

 

Starting at the 78 win baseline, and hoping to see:

 

1. Actual defense in the middle of the diamond.

2. A very effective bullpen that houses Houck and/or Whitlock all year (more likely with additions).

3. A full season of Tristan Casas post-adjustments

4. A more settled and improved Masatska Yoshida

5. Steps forward from Brayan Bello and the severely underrated and underappreciated Kutter Crawford

6. Outfield defense. It might exist next season.

7. A healthy Jarren Duran hopefully proving 2023 is not a fluke (with acknowledgement that Duran is still a viable trade candidate).

8. Option year Pivetta!

9. Vaughn Grissom, who can hopefully supplant Vaughn Eshelman as the New Greatest Vaughn in Sox History.

 

1. yes

2. Houck will be in the rotation

3. yes

4. maybe? I want to believe.

5. maybe on Bello, but Crawford will be about the same which is ok

6. sure

7. doubt it

8. less about the option and more about his continued sweeper use

9. unbelievable...

[moonslav59]

It seems that way to some, but so many teams are acting the same as Boston that it simply has not worked out for every free agent. Either the players have to come down, the teams go back up, or both. But right now it’s just too much of a stand-off…

 

It seems that for a team to just stay even, you need to look better than last year, on paper.

 

Even the 2019 team looked good, on paper, but not better than 2019.

 

Sure, the 2013 team example is one for the other view.

 

I have not given up on 2024. We may add some players that improve my opinion, but we were not all that good last year, and there are doubts we look better without JT, Dugo, Duvall, Paxton, Sale and a few others.

 

We added Gio, Grissom, Cambell and O'Neill.

[mvp 78]

It was pressing levers, man. Gotta keep Tommy's terminology straight here.

 

^^^

[mvp 78]

There's more rumblings around Framber Valdez today. If he's available we really should be in on him with them looking for a left handed batter with speed.

 

Not to mention if our big 3 work out

Marcelo Mayer

Roman Anthony

Kyle Teel

 

Along with our fringe players

Wilyer Abreu

Emmanuel Valdez

 

Added to our every day players

Jaren Duran

Triston Casas

Masataka Yoshida

Rafael Devers

 

We will have 9 left handed hitters in the team at the end of this year. We really could do with a trade or two to balance that out.

 

I wonder if they look into keeping Anthony up the middle, which would then just be replacing Duran's LHB with Anthony's LHB.

[Bellhorn04]

Do you expect us to spend more than 2023, which was still not real close to the first tax line?

 

No I don't. My cynicism and pessimism is off the charts too.

[mvp 78]

Oh I get what you're saying. But he did backpedal immediately, too. And Werner insisted that they don't have a fixed budget number this past weekend.

 

It's all part of the circus of confusion.

 

"Oh s***, I shouldn't have said that because we still have tickets to sell!"

[mvp 78]

It seems that way to some, but so many teams are acting the same as Boston that it simply has not worked out for every free agent. Either the players have to come down, the teams go back up, or both. But right now it’s just too much of a stand-off…

 

Players are starting to come off the board again and the Sox are not really being linked to players anymore. I don't see much happening here on out for them.

[Bellhorn04]

It seems that way to some, but so many teams are acting the same as Boston that it simply has not worked out for every free agent. Either the players have to come down, the teams go back up, or both. But right now it’s just too much of a stand-off…

 

Boras's Fearsome Foursome is most of the pricy talent that's left.

[mvp 78]

For the available FA, they've expressed interest in:

 

Soler

Duvall

Turner (Turner said he hasn't heard from them)

Montgomery

 

How likely is it that the Red Sox would get 2 of the top 6 remaining FA's (Soler and Monty)? Seems pretty low considering all that we've heard!

[mvp 78]

Boras's Fearsome Foursome is most of the pricy talent that's left.

 

After that, there's not a whole lot to get excited about.

[notin]

Boras's Fearsome Foursome is most of the pricy talent that's left.

 

And where do they go?

 

Certainly there are a bunch of small market, non-spenders that will never be in play.

 

While there are more big spending teams than MLB is used to, many of them have done their share of spending. Really the only traditional big spenders that have not been doing so are Boston (10th in payroll per Sportrac), San Francisco (12th) and Los Angeles of Anaheim (14th). Chicago Cubs (9th) should also be included.

 

So these are the 4 likeliest landing spots for these free agents.

 

Bellinger back to the Cubs. No brainer.

 

Chapman is tough to fit anywhere if San Fran passes on him, which they have to date.

 

But at a minimum, that limits Snell and Montgomery to Boston, SF, and LAA. And just Boston and LAA if SF signs Chapman…