Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

No it isn't. And when I first heard about the trade I thought the $10 mill or so they freed up would be put toward a free agent signing. Because we've heard numerous times about them needing to shed payroll before spending.

 

And of course since then they've done nothing.

 

This offseason might end up OK, but to date it's been mostly frustration, angst and confusion for Sox fans. At least the ones who actually care about the 2024 season.

So you are thinking the $10M freed up could have been added to some other money toward a FA signing? $17M more money would have helped even more, which some doesn’t think it would.

[mvp 78]

His FIP with the White Sox was 4.43 last year.

 

Coincidentally he has a career ERA of 4.43 and a career FIP of 4.44.

 

Yes, he has pitched well for stretches, I know. But he could be a disaster, and no one will be shocked.

 

A 4 ERA is not a disaster. You can't just drop a Kluber and when referencing a 4 ERA guy. That's not the dumps that Kluber was taking on the mound.

[mvp 78]

Why stop there? Go back another year:

 

ERA/FIP

1st 10 '22: 3.88/4.41 (add 1 game: 4.78/4.84

2nd 10 '22: 5.94/4.13 Take away that one game: 5.06/3.57)

3rd 10 '22: 4.88/3.65

1st 11 '23: 3.98/4.17

2nd 11 '23: 3.71/4.89

3rd 11 '23: 7.14/6.88

 

5/12 bad

4/12 ok-good

3/12 good-very good

 

 

Since you love to do 3 year intervals, break out 2021 for us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Old Red]

Ok, I guess we will have to stop beating what once resembled the carcass of a dead horse. I will say this though, if you like the trade, it doesn't happen if they don't kick the money in.

 

Since the Braves extended him already they must have wanted him pretty bad, so maybe the $17M could have been negotiated down. I would have felt better if it was the other way around, and the Red Sox paid only $10M.

[mvp 78]

So now we're cheering for moves that look best through the filter of not competing this year.

 

If the Sox were intent in competing, they would've signed more than Giolito. The filter of not competing is all we have. If they were competing, they'd use the remaining 40M+ under the CBT on the rotation and be competitive regardless of the Sale deal.

[Old Red]

It’s always fun when the guy who reignites the chat calls for the discussion to stop…

 

Saying the Red Sox paid in my opinion to much money to the Braves shouldn’t have ignited anything in the first place, but on here it did. It didn’t anywhere else.

[Hugh2]

Since the Braves extended him already they must have wanted him pretty bad, so maybe the $17M could have been negotiated down. I would have felt better if it was the other way around, and the Red Sox paid only $10M.

 

You could also say they wanted him so badly they gave up Grissom for him.

 

Maybe the 17 million was negotiated down. Maybe they refused to take any money, or only 5 million, and it was negotiated up to $10 million they would take.

[mvp 78]

It’s a win, win for the Braves. It’s a minor risk for $10M, and IF Sale stays healthy the Braves get a decent pitcher added to a good ball club, and gave up someone who was not in their plans. Grissom has potential, and is not a stud prospect like 1 said yesterday. He’ll hopefully turn out to be good, but he’s not a Bill Maz, or Robbie Alomar at this point.

 

How could anyone ever be as good as Mazeroski and his 666 OPS. What an amazing player.

[moonslav59]

Well, maybe. He's still an unproven quantity at the MLB level. And he was below replacement level last year.

 

I get that, but he was a top 100 prospect and 3rd on ATL's list.

 

I think any team with money, would have paid $17M cash for him.

 

His defense may turn out okay or even better, as he moves from SS to 2B and gets adjusted. It's his D that tipped him to a low bWAR. I'm not sure you can call a guy who pro-rates to about a 1.4 bWAR over 650 PAs.

 

A .746 OPS (105 OPS+ is encouraging for a prospect's firsat 236 PAs in MLB.)

+1.2 oWAR in just 64 games

-0.7 dWAR

0.5 bWAR

 

His 0.1 fWAR projects to near or under replacement level

+2.2 O

-9.9 D (but -7 DRS in 168 innings at SS vs -3 DRS in 368 innings at 2B. This shows he was nearly 5 times worse at SS than 2B.) His UZR/150 is about 7 times worse at SS than 2B.

 

Both projections listed on fangraphs has him around A 2.2 fWAR in about 500 PAs for 2024.

 

[moonslav59]

Since you love to do 3 year intervals, break out 2021 for us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I did that a week or so, ago.

[Bellhorn04]

A 4 ERA is not a disaster. You can't just drop a Kluber and when referencing a 4 ERA guy. That's not the dumps that Kluber was taking on the mound.

 

Kluber was never that bad until 2023.

 

And his 55 inning sample in 2023 was smaller than Giolito's 63.1 inning sample with his last 2 teams.

[Old Red]

If the Sox were intent in competing, they would've signed more than Giolito. The filter of not competing is all we have. If they were competing, they'd use the remaining 40M+ under the CBT on the rotation and be competitive regardless of the Sale deal.

 

I think to many took Tom saying full throttle as going out, and signing any combination of Yam Man, Snell, or Monty. It’s always speculative on here the Red Sox are going to spend up to the CBT. I know they got up there at the end of 2022, but probably more accidental than anything, and definitely not productive.

[Old Red]

How could anyone ever be as good as Mazeroski and his 666 OPS. What an amazing player.

 

I was talking more about D, but good stat.

[mvp 78]

No it isn't. And when I first heard about the trade I thought the $10 mill or so they freed up would be put toward a free agent signing. Because we've heard numerous times about them needing to shed payroll before spending.

 

And of course since then they've done nothing.

 

This offseason might end up OK, but to date it's been mostly frustration, angst and confusion for Sox fans. At least the ones who actually care about the 2024 season.

 

The payroll is LESS than last year and the FA class is dwindling. It's clear that they will not make up the difference before Opening Day. They are in a retraction period. God only knows why.

[moonslav59]

You could also say they wanted him so badly they gave up Grissom for him.

 

Maybe the 17 million was negotiated down. Maybe they refused to take any money, or only 5 million, and it was negotiated up to $10 million they would take.

 

They extended Sale to what amounted to about $10M for 2025. That's what they are paying him for 2024, too.

 

They must think Sale is worth $10M x 2 minus the value of Grissom, who was redundant in their system.

 

I'm noit sure that shows a lot of love for Sale. He basically got a kluber deal for 2025, not counting inflation.

[Old Red]

You could also say they wanted him so badly they gave up Grissom for him.

 

Maybe the 17 million was negotiated down. Maybe they refused to take any money, or only 5 million, and it was negotiated up to $10 million they would take.

Grissom wasn’t in their plans anyway. Maybe, maybe, maybe, and if, if, if.

[moonslav59]

The payroll is LESS than last year and the FA class is dwindling. It's clear that they will not make up the difference before Opening Day. They are in a retraction period. God only knows why.

 

It appears only trades can change that, but then that goes against what looks like a focus on improving the longer term as a higher priority, unless...

 

We trade for a pitcher with 5 years of team control.

 

On the salary, we could trade for salary, but that seems unlikely, as hell.

[Bellhorn04]

They extended Sale to what amounted to about $10M for 2025. That's what they are paying him for 2024, too.

 

They must think Sale is worth $10M x 2 minus the value of Grissom, who was redundant in their system.

 

I'm noit sure that shows a lot of love for Sale. He basically got a kluber deal for 2025, not counting inflation.

 

It was a dice roll by the Braves. Nobody knows how it will turn out. It could turn out to be a big win for them.

[mvp 78]

I'm sure it was. Still an unproven quantity, especially defensively.

 

Yeah, most prospects are unproven at the MLB level....

[mvp 78]

I get that, but he was a top 100 prospect and 3rd on ATL's list.

 

I think any team with money, would have paid $17M cash for him.

 

His defense may turn out okay or even better, as he moves from SS to 2B and gets adjusted. It's his D that tipped him to a low bWAR. I'm not sure you can call a guy who pro-rates to about a 1.4 bWAR over 650 PAs.

 

A .746 OPS (105 OPS+ is encouraging for a prospect's firsat 236 PAs in MLB.)

+1.2 oWAR in just 64 games

-0.7 dWAR

0.5 bWAR

 

His 0.1 fWAR projects to near or under replacement level

+2.2 O

-9.9 D (but -7 DRS in 168 innings at SS vs -3 DRS in 368 innings at 2B. This shows he was nearly 5 times worse at SS than 2B.) His UZR/150 is about 7 times worse at SS than 2B.

 

Both projections listed on fangraphs has him around A 2.2 fWAR in about 500 PAs for 2024.

 

 

He was the Braves TOP prospect in '22 when promoted. He lost prospect status that year due to MLB AB's.

[mvp 78]

I did that a week or so, ago.

 

And yet you only put 2 years in your copy pasta here. Interesting!

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, most prospects are unproven at the MLB level....

 

He's a kid, that's really the point, and they're expecting him to step in and be the everyday second baseman, but his defensive numbers look shaky.

[mvp 78]

He's a kid, that's really the point, and they're expecting him to step in and be the everyday second baseman, but his defensive numbers look shaky.

 

His Fielding Percentage (old school cool) at 2b is really high and most people that have worked hands on with him believe he'll work out there fine long term. He won't be Pedroia over there, but should be average once he's comfortable.

 

The problem with the "he's a kid" is that this seems to be what the organization is holding out for. They are putting all their eggs on many of these prospects working out. I love prospects. I like a few of these prospects a lot. Not every prospect works out! The Sox don't have a history, especially recently, of churning out MLB talent from their farm. This is a very risky thing to try with this fanbase. They want a long term rebuild on an expensive product. This is John Henry's fingerprints. If there isn't a WS in the next decade, it's not because of the long line of CBO's but because of the restrictions put in place by the owner.

[moonslav59]

And yet you only put 2 years in your copy pasta here. Interesting!

 

I did not copy and paste. I went and did it again.

 

FYI, he did very good in 2021.

 

My response was to the point about how we should somehow cont 2/3's of the 2023 season more than the 1/3rd he did poorly. I merely asked why stop there with the cherry-picking of time slots.

[Old Red]

How could anyone ever be as good as Mazeroski and his 666 OPS. What an amazing player.

 

Pooh, poohing a HOF? Wow!

[Old Red]

His Fielding Percentage (old school cool) at 2b is really high and most people that have worked hands on with him believe he'll work out there fine long term. He won't be Pedroia over there, but should be average once he's comfortable.

 

The problem with the "he's a kid" is that this seems to be what the organization is holding out for. They are putting all their eggs on many of these prospects working out. I love prospects. I like a few of these prospects a lot. Not every prospect works out! The Sox don't have a history, especially recently, of churning out MLB talent from their farm. This is a very risky thing to try with this fanbase. They want a long term rebuild on an expensive product. This is John Henry's fingerprints. If there isn't a WS in the next decade, it's not because of the long line of CBO's but because of the restrictions put in place by the owner.

 

What about the report that said Grissom was 68 out of 74 in 2B with 350 innings played on some D stat?

[moonslav59]

He's a kid, that's really the point, and they're expecting him to step in and be the everyday second baseman, but his defensive numbers look shaky.

 

He played nearly all his time at SS from 2022-2023, in the minors. I'm not sure how much we can gather from his recent small sample size on D at 2B.

[Bellhorn04]

He played nearly all his time at SS from 2022-2023, in the minors. I'm not sure how much we can gather from his recent small sample size on D at 2B.

 

Right. But it kind of sounds like he's a project, defensively speaking...

[Old Red]

Right. But it kind of sounds like he's a project, defensively speaking...

 

That’s why the Braves were trying him in the OF.

[mvp 78]

Pooh, poohing a HOF? Wow!

 

A list of good not great 2B not in the HOF that were better than Bill Mazeroski:

Julio Franco

Chuck Knoblach

Davey Lopes

Tony Phillips

Placido Polanco

Dick McAuliffe