Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Trout + 140M (Sox paying Trout to be a 2 fWAR guy for through 2030)

 

for

 

Duran

Crawford

 

 

So you’re trading a 2.4 fWAR guy in Duran for the ability to pay Trout $120mill for the same production? And including Crawford?

 

Pass…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kiner’s last year was his age 32 season. Trout is entering his age 32 season.

 

Is this really the comp you want to make?

 

BB-ref's comp... plus, training programs for baseball players may have changed slightly since Kiner's era, when chain-smoking and red meat diets were the norm.

 

Who's a right-handed power bat that you recommend Breslow acquire that can help make the Sox relevant again (and maybe even end the daily debate about Refsnyder platooning with Yoshida and Duran)?

[cp176]

I'm a Red Sox fan not involved in ownership. If Trout came to Boston, I would go to see him play. I want legit stars out there somewhere.

[cp176]

BB-ref's comp... plus, training programs for baseball players may have changed slightly since Kiner's era, when chain-smoking and red meat diets were the norm.

 

Who's a right-handed power bat that you recommend Breslow acquire that can help make the Sox relevant again (and maybe even end the daily debate about Refsnyder platooning with Yoshida and Duran)?

 

I hear you.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm a Red Sox fan not involved in ownership. If Trout came to Boston, I would go to see him play. I want legit stars out there somewhere.

 

You mean the owners who are billionaires and can afford to pay to acquire or better yet keep star ballplayers in Boston?

 

Besides about three posters who cannot consider anything Red Sox beyond the almighty budget, you're just like millions of other fans.

[moonslav59]

I'm a Red Sox fan not involved in ownership. If Trout came to Boston, I would go to see him play, but he'd be out with an injury.

 

I fixed your post for you.

[notin]

BB-ref's comp... plus, training programs for baseball players may have changed slightly since Kiner's era, when chain-smoking and red meat diets were the norm.

 

Who's a right-handed power bat that you recommend Breslow acquire that can help make the Sox relevant again (and maybe even end the daily debate about Refsnyder platooning with Yoshida and Duran)?

 

I like the Mitch Garver angle. But if we want an OF, I like Tyler O’Neil, who can hit with pop and actually field his position. Adam Duvall is also certainly in the argument…

[notin]

You mean the owners who are billionaires and can afford to pay to acquire or better yet keep star ballplayers in Boston?

 

Besides about three posters who cannot consider anything Red Sox beyond the almighty budget, you're just like millions of other fans.

 

Good idea to blame the fans. Especially the ones who acknowledge the budget exists. Simple question - do you think Craig Breslow cares about his budget or not?

[notin]

I'm a Red Sox fan not involved in ownership. If Trout came to Boston, I would go to see him play. I want legit stars out there somewhere.

 

Trout’s played in 237 games out of a possible 486 over the last 3 years. Chances are good you wouldn’t get to see him play.

 

Or do people think this guy will get healthier as he ages?

[moonslav59]

Besides about three posters who cannot consider anything Red Sox beyond the almighty budget...

 

We can argue until we all turn blue about how and why Henry should spend more, but the reality is that he does, but only to a certain degree.

 

There will be a finite budget, this winter, like it or not.

 

What we spend on one player, we won't on another or others. That's just the way it is.

 

I'd rather we spend on pitching, pitching and more pitching, and not injury prone, declining players. I doubt Trout matches Pujols' numbers post 32...

 

.754 OPS

 

He won't come close to 122 games per year, and AP did that over 10 more years after 32.

 

Trout's .968 OPS since 2020 looks nice and shiny in preseason line-ups on paper, but he's averaged 79 games in the past 3 seasons (336 PAs.) That was during "peak physical prime."

 

Seriously, I'd rather have Yoshida, even if they were paid the same, so it's not about just the "almighty budget."

[mvp 78]

So you’re trading a 2.4 fWAR guy in Duran for the ability to pay Trout $120mill for the same production? And including Crawford?

 

Pass…

 

I don't entirely believe Duran can repeat that production and I think Crawford is a dime a dozen pitcher. I came up with the salary I'd be willing to fork out and players I'd be willing to let go. Seems like Duran isn't a good fit in LF. Crawford is just ok. Swapping Trout for Duran is a big upside play for sure. I'm not sure the Angels would even accept that trade anyway. We see it as an overpay, they would see it as an underpay.

[mvp 78]

I'm a Red Sox fan not involved in ownership. If Trout came to Boston, I would go to see him play. I want legit stars out there somewhere.

 

I don't think they will do it, but it's fun to talk about on here.

[mvp 78]

You mean the owners who are billionaires and can afford to pay to acquire or better yet keep star ballplayers in Boston?

 

Besides about three posters who cannot consider anything Red Sox beyond the almighty budget, you're just like millions of other fans.

 

The 2024 OF should be:

 

Trout - LF

Rafaela - CF

Mookie - RF

[moonslav59]

I don't entirely believe Duran can repeat that production and I think Crawford is a dime a dozen pitcher. I came up with the salary I'd be willing to fork out and players I'd be willing to let go. Seems like Duran isn't a good fit in LF. Crawford is just ok. Swapping Trout for Duran is a big upside play for sure. I'm not sure the Angels would even accept that trade anyway. We see it as an overpay, they would see it as an underpay.

 

The Angels would be dumping almost $150M, so maybe they'd say yes.

[mvp 78]

I fixed your post for you.

 

And we are counting on Trevor Story to do what?

[mvp 78]

I like the Mitch Garver angle. But if we want an OF, I like Tyler O’Neil, who can hit with pop and actually field his position. Adam Duvall is also certainly in the argument…

 

O'Neill '22-'23:

 

0 DRS

1 OAA

98 wRC+

less games played than Trout

[notin]

I don't entirely believe Duran can repeat that production and I think Crawford is a dime a dozen pitcher. I came up with the salary I'd be willing to fork out and players I'd be willing to let go. Seems like Duran isn't a good fit in LF. Crawford is just ok. Swapping Trout for Duran is a big upside play for sure. I'm not sure the Angels would even accept that trade anyway. We see it as an overpay, they would see it as an underpay.

 

I think the Angels do it if they can work something out with Ohtani. They cannot lose both superstars in the same offseason and expect to sell tickets.

 

Of the two, Duran is probably the “upside play.” Trout’s (very likely) limited action will cap him as a 2-3 fWAR player going forward.

 

If Trout had 4 years or less left on his deal, he’d be a better target. Seven full years during which his IL time is more likely to increase than decrease, will he even be worth 2fWAR at age 37? It seems like the Sox can find better ways to spend the 15-20% of their budget…

[mvp 78]

Trout’s played in 237 games out of a possible 486 over the last 3 years. Chances are good you wouldn’t get to see him play.

 

Or do people think this guy will get healthier as he ages?

 

Trout started getting injured once he turned 29. O'Neill started getting injured once he turned 27. And so it goes.

[mvp 78]

The Angels would be dumping almost $150M, so maybe they'd say yes.

 

Hard to say. If they lose out on Ohtani, they won't have any franchise players left. They'll need to fill the ballpark somehow and it won't be with Anthony Rendon.

[mvp 78]

I think the Angels do it if they can work something out with Ohtani. They cannot lose both superstars in the same offseason and expect to sell tickets.

 

Of the two, Duran is probably the “upside play.” Trout’s (very likely) limited action will cap him as a 2-3 fWAR player going forward.

 

If Trout had 4 years or less left on his deal, he’d be a better target. Seven full years during which his IL time is more likely to increase than decrease, will he even be worth 2fWAR at age 37? It seems like the Sox can find better ways to spend the 15-20% of their budget…

 

If Trout is healthy, he's a 5 fWAR guy. I don't see Duran getting there, that's why I think Trout is the upside guy in this equation. Duran is cheaper, but I just have a lot of questions about him still. And he did also have a season ending injury last year!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like the Mitch Garver angle. But if we want an OF, I like Tyler O’Neil, who can hit with pop and actually field his position. Adam Duvall is also certainly in the argument…

 

Nothing against them, but none change the narrative of a last-place loser. Garver isn't as good as Turner, O'Neil will also cost prospects, and Duvall is just another banged-up all-or-nothing swinger.

 

And as far as injury-prone ballplayers, it's a high-risk profession, and all bodies wear down -- just like every pitcher is a Tommy John waiting to happen. Do you honestly think Benintendi, one of the top home run hitters in college and a 20-HR MLBer, suddenly forgot how to hit for power? Granted, the ball may have been as juiced a few years ago as it was in this year's postseason... and that's why I'd sign Montgomery, because he proved he can win with that ball vs. playoff batting orders.

 

Finally, we'll soon see how much Breslow cares about the budget -- he said in his intro he was assured it would not be an issue, right before Tom Warner vowed to go "full throttle" ...

[moonslav59]

And we are counting on Trevor Story to do what?

 

To play more than Trout by maybe a factor of 2-3, minimum.

[moonslav59]

If Trout is healthy, he's a 5 fWAR guy. I don't see Duran getting there, that's why I think Trout is the upside guy in this equation. Duran is cheaper, but I just have a lot of questions about him still. And he did also have a season ending injury last year!

 

Nobody doubts Trout's skills and ability to be a 5+ WAR player, although after 32, it might not be so much of a sure bet, but it's all about staying on the field.

[moonslav59]

Nothing against them, but none change the narrative of a last-place loser. Garver isn't as good as Turner, O'Neil will also cost prospects, and Duvall is just another banged-up all-or-nothing swinger.

 

And as far as injury-prone ballplayers, it's a high-risk profession, and all bodies wear down -- just like every pitcher is a Tommy John waiting to happen. Do you honestly think Benintendi, one of the top home run hitters in college and a 20-HR MLBer, suddenly forgot how to hit for power? Granted, the ball may have been as juiced a few years ago as it was in this year's postseason... and that's why I'd sign Montgomery, because he proved he can win with that ball vs. playoff batting orders.

 

Finally, we'll soon see how much Breslow cares about the budget -- he said in his intro he was assured it would not be an issue, right before Tom Warner vowed to go "full throttle" ...

 

The thing Garver brings, besides a likely step down on catcher D is a big plus on offense from the catcher position. Every team plays and bats a catcher. We could make huge gains against most teams at that position, on offense.

 

Adding someone who increases our LF or DH OPS by .100 might not match the increase we could get at catcher.

[mvp 78]

Nothing against them, but none change the narrative of a last-place loser. Garver isn't as good as Turner, O'Neil will also cost prospects, and Duvall is just another banged-up all-or-nothing swinger.

 

And as far as injury-prone ballplayers, it's a high-risk profession, and all bodies wear down -- just like every pitcher is a Tommy John waiting to happen. Do you honestly think Benintendi, one of the top home run hitters in college and a 20-HR MLBer, suddenly forgot how to hit for power? Granted, the ball may have been as juiced a few years ago as it was in this year's postseason... and that's why I'd sign Montgomery, because he proved he can win with that ball vs. playoff batting orders.

 

Finally, we'll soon see how much Breslow cares about the budget -- he said in his intro he was assured it would not be an issue, right before Tom Warner vowed to go "full throttle" ...

 

O'Neill is only 5.5 on BTV (Romero and Hickey).

[mvp 78]

To play more than Trout by maybe a factor of 2-3, minimum.

 

Hell to the naw naw naw...

 

No chance.

[mvp 78]

Nobody doubts Trout's skills and ability to be a 5+ WAR player, although after 32, it might not be so much of a sure bet, but it's all about staying on the field.

 

And Duran is maybe being treated as a platoon guy? Trout playing 90 games vs Duran playing 120? Trout would still have a higher fWAR.

[mvp 78]

The thing Garver brings, besides a likely step down on catcher D is a big plus on offense from the catcher position. Every team plays and bats a catcher. We could make huge gains against most teams at that position, on offense.

 

Adding someone who increases our LF or DH OPS by .100 might not match the increase we could get at catcher.

 

Now that the CBO is a former pitcher, we'll see how much he values defense behind the plate.

[moonslav59]

Now that the CBO is a former pitcher, we'll see how much he values defense behind the plate.

 

And, what he thinks about Wong and McGuire's current and possible skill levels behind the plate and how well they work with our staff.

[moonslav59]

And Duran is maybe being treated as a platoon guy? Trout playing 90 games vs Duran playing 120? Trout would still have a higher fWAR.

 

I'm not arguing Duran will be better, although Duran would likely replace ref in LF after PH'ing or PR'ing in most those other 42 games.

 

I'm not for adding $100M to the budget with an oft-injured LF'er, when we have too many LF'ers as it is.

 

Sure, he'd look shiny in the "on paper" line-up, and maybe he'd get a few more fans in the seats, only to be disappointed he's on the benhc that game, but the plusses don't outweigh the gains.