Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

I don't want to trade the other guys.

 

You hooked on all of them? If Duran, Raf Man, and Abreu all work out then great it would be a cheap OF for awhile, and more money could be spent on SP, but all the other guys are still unproven commodities for 2024.

[mvp 78]

You hooked on all of them? If Duran, Raf Man, and Abreu all work out then great it would be a cheap OF for awhile, and more money could be spent on SP, but all the other guys are still unproven commodities for 2024.

 

Verdugo is proven to be an average (at best) OFer. Duran and Rafaela both have ceilings that are far higher than that. I'm not sure Abreu is that much of a drop off from Verdugo that you would substantially miss him.

[moonslav59]

As a long-time fan of a club noted for star outfielders, I'm not excited by an unproven all-platoon outfield, left to right.

 

There may be little chance to develop All-Stars for '24, but there is certainly room for upgrade by trade.

 

Especially if 3/4ths of the infield returns -- as most assume (Devers-Story-Casas) -- and the catchers are just keeping the position warm for Teel.

 

Don't want to deal a haul for Soto or Trout? Ok, but we can at least part with a few Best Shortstops Available for a solid full-time corner outfielder. Gurriel is a righty with pull power and a good glove... and arb eligible to become a free agent in a year. A new CBO determined to improve his big league roster should be expected to add someone like that.

 

I'm only for platooning LF due to Ref's amazing splits.

 

Rafaela is my FT CF'er, unless he shows he can't keep the job. Abrue is there, in case he fails.

 

Duvall is my FT RF'er, and Abreu is his back-up. Duvall should get his rest days when a RHP is starting, but he would not be a platoon player.

 

One problem with this alignment is that Abreu may not get enough action to continue developing. He could start the year in AAA. (I guess if Abreu looks great in ST'ing and Rafaela sucks, we could flip the plan in CF.

 

I'm not saying I'm thrilled with this OF aligment, but to me, it is a stronger area than our rotation and 2B- maybe catcher, too.

 

If we keep spreading our funds out too thinly, we'll keep ending up with mediocre players at every slot.

 

I prefer to identify 3-4 slots that need the most help, and spend it all on those 3-4 players.

 

I think our roster depth is good enough to work out the other areas not yet really good.

 

1. SP1

2. SP2

3. RHB (OF, 2B, C) Duvall? Garver?

4. SP4

(If we go for 5, it would be 2B or C.)

[moonslav59]

I just think DH is a better fit for Masa. He was a fulltime DH in Japan and he'll be less likely to wear down there in '24. When he was playing well, Masa was a force.

 

Agree 100%. He should only pay LF, in Fenway, when Devers or casas need a rest at DH.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo is proven to be an average (at best) OFer. Duran and Rafaela both have ceilings that are far higher than that. I'm not sure Abreu is that much of a drop off from Verdugo that you would substantially miss him.

 

And, with Ref as a capable RHB and Yoshida as an emergency fill-in LF'er, we should have all OF positions covered, in case one guy gets hurt or sucks. (Assuming we add Duvall and trade Dugo.)

[Hugh2]

Verdugo is proven to be an average (at best) OFer. Duran and Rafaela both have ceilings that are far higher than that. I'm not sure Abreu is that much of a drop off from Verdugo that you would substantially miss him.

 

You're putting an awful lot of trust into this youth movement. We've seen plenty of guys come up, much much much more highly regarded with the bat and even hit well for 1/2 to a full season and then just disappear.

 

You're assuming best case scenario for all of them and that almost never happens.

 

You're also assuming Duval can be a full-time player. At age 35 his second most played games since he was 28 was 384.

 

Your outfield has the capacity to be absolutely awful. Good teams roll the dice with uncertainty and young guys.....but not in all three positions.

Edited November 7, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[mvp 78]

You're putting an awful lot of trust into this youth movement. We've seen plenty of guys come up, much much much more highly regarded with the bat and even hit well for 1/2 to a full season and then just disappear.

 

You're assuming best case scenario for all of them and that almost never happens.

 

You're also assuming Duval can be a full-time player. At age 35 his second most played games since he was 28 was 384.

 

I'm not assuming the best case scenario at all.

 

I have no idea what kind of Duvall stat you are looking at.

 

Age 28: 157 G

Age 29: 138 G

Age 30: 41 G injured

Age 31: 57 G COVID year

Age 32: 146 G

Age 33: 86 G

Age 34: 92 G

[Hugh2]

I'm not assuming the best case scenario at all.

 

I have no idea what kind of Duvall stat you are looking at.

 

Age 28: 157 G

Age 29: 138 G

Age 30: 41 G injured

Age 31: 57 G COVID year

Age 32: 146 G

Age 33: 86 G

Age 34: 92 G

 

At bats not games played. He's not durable, and he's 35.

 

I suppose opinions are like *******s, as all got one but I just don't see how anyone who wants to go for it loads up an outfield with that many question marks. I'd be insanely surprised if that happened. If they trade Verdugo it's because they're bringing in a Teoscar Hernandez (which I hate and don't think they will) or they are trading for Soto, or someone else.

[Hugh2]

Anyways, moving on to more interesting things. Sox met with Montgomery agents.

 

Montgomery + Yama? SIgn Bader or Duval and don't trade Verdugo. Sign me up.

[mvp 78]

At bats not games played. He's not durable, and he's 35.

 

I suppose opinions are like *******s, as all got one but I just don't see how anyone who wants to go for it loads up an outfield with that many question marks. I'd be insanely surprised if that happened. If they trade Verdugo it's because they're bringing in a Teoscar Hernandez (which I hate and don't think they will) or they are trading for Soto, or someone else.

 

Well, you said "played games."

[Hugh2]

Well, you said "played games."

 

Yes it was a mistake, you pointed it out, thank you. And I clarified it.

[moonslav59]

If we traded Dugo and signed Duvall and Duvall gets hurt, all is not lost.

 

We'd still have 5 OF'ers with Rosier in AAA.

 

Yoshida

Refsnyder

Duran

Rafaela

Abreu

 

Is that great? No.

Is it good? Maybe.

Is it risky? Yes.

 

Is it better than our rotation, right now?

NO on SP1, NO on SP2, NO on SP4.

 

Is it better than Urias/Reyes at 2B?

I'd say close call, but yes.

 

Is it better than Wong/McGuire at catcher?

I'd say close call, and maybe no.

 

Look, if we can spend $90M or trade Mayer for a SP'er, then spend $65-75M, fine. Keep Dugo and sign Duvall, but we need to concentrate our resources on our top 3-4, maybe 5 needs, or we will end up getting mediocrity at 6-8 slots filled.

[moonslav59]

Anyways, moving on to more interesting things. Sox met with Montgomery agents.

 

Montgomery + Yama? SIgn Bader or Duval and don't trade Verdugo. Sign me up.

 

You think it's more important to have 6 OF'ers than a 3rd SP or 2Bman, or even a catcher?

[Old Red]

You're putting an awful lot of trust into this youth movement. We've seen plenty of guys come up, much much much more highly regarded with the bat and even hit well for 1/2 to a full season and then just disappear.

 

You're assuming best case scenario for all of them and that almost never happens.

 

You're also assuming Duval can be a full-time player. At age 35 his second most played games since he was 28 was 384.

 

Your outfield has the capacity to be absolutely awful. Good teams roll the dice with uncertainty and young guys.....but not in all three positions.

It’ll be interesting to see what Cora, and Breslow come up with concerning the OF alignment, but I agree with you 100% on this. Prospects, or suspects, or somewhere in between. 2 out of 3 ain’t bad, but anything less🙈.

[notin]

You think it's more important to have 6 OF'ers than a 3rd SP or 2Bman, or even a catcher?

 

Breslow isn’t signing three starting pitchers to major league deals.

 

I predict Snell and Clevinger. I’m basing this on his velocity predilection.

 

Of course, I have no idea how he feels about QOs and draft picks…

[Hugh2]

You think it's more important to have 6 OF'ers than a 3rd SP or 2Bman, or even a catcher?

 

We have 6 outfiedlers? That group consists of guys like Refsnyder.

 

That would be like pointing out we have John Schrieber when talking about building a rotation.

 

I like having a consistent player you know can play good D and at least provide you with an average offense. I'm also good at banking on him having a good contract year. His track record is there, even if he's not an all star he's a fine player to have under control. Duran literally had two good months, he could turn back into a pumpkin, Yoshida is an ok hitter who can't field, and Refsyner is a strictly platoon bat. Rafaela is largely unproven, and might even need more seasoning in AAA, Abreu is largely untested, right now it appears he's playing above ALL his projections.

 

Can any one of these things happen? Yes, its much more likely that they do not and perhaps even more likely none of them do. I'd bank on one of them turning out to be a great roster addition in 2024.

 

That outfield just seems like complete irresponsibility to me.

 

Every. single. year. we fall in love with guys who play above their capabilities and EVERY. SINGLE. TIME we expect so much more out of them.

 

What's the saying "the definition of insanity".

 

No one is ever going to convince me that outfield is a good ideal and I"m about 99% sure the Sox agree with me. I will literally buy a pair of Red Sox, put them in a blender, chop them up and eat them if that happens. Mark my words.

[Hugh2]

It’ll be interesting to see what Cora, and Breslow come up with concerning the OF alignment, but I agree with you 100% on this. Prospects, or suspects, or somewhere in between. 2 out of 3 ain’t bad, but anything less🙈.

 

I'm all for the youth movement, you've had enough conversations with me in here to know I can be a bit of a prospect homer at times but I just really value having a solid foundation of guys you can depend on in your lineup, even if they're not all stars.

 

Verdugo isn't a great player, but he's a good player, and you can pretty much slot him in for a 2 WAR season next year. If all of Rafaela, Duran, and ABreu are MASHING between AAA and Boston next year you can always trade him at the deadline to some team desperate to upgrade their outfield.

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder will be 33 to start the 2024 season.

Yoshida turns 31, next year.

Duran turns 28.

Verdugo turns 28 but has been in MLB for 7 years. If we replace him with 35 year old Duvall, we still have 4 veteran OF'ers on the 26 man roster.

 

Rafaela and Abreu may not win an OF position. One could very likely start the year in AAA.

 

Of course the OF situation has question marks and concerns, as does just about every position to some extent, except maybe the pen.

 

I'd love to have Bellinger on the team.

 

I'd prefer to have Dugo and Duvall on the 26 man roster.

 

I'm just not sure we can fill the other high(er) need areas sufficiently to make it happen.

 

I can understand anyone who prefers having Dugo over Duvall. He is more dependable, and we know he's okay on D in RF. He's younger. He also has horrible splits and has not really been a plus on D for his whole career. He's had attitude issues on a team where many posters have complained about poor leadership and chemistry.

 

It's a gamble keeping Dugo and rolling the dice with status quo, too. (Status quo includes bringing Duvall back.)

 

A lot depends on how much we can spend and how open Breslo is to making some bold trades.

 

IMO, the OF is not a top 4-5 priority. A RHB is, so getting one for the OF is fine, but unless we are going for a major and costly winter, I don't see loading up the OF beyond someone like Duvall.

[moonslav59]

We have 6 outfiedlers? That group consists of guys like Refsnyder.

 

Yes. SIX.

 

Yoshida

Duran

Refsnyder (one of MLB's best batters vs LHP over the last 2 years)

Dugo

Rafaela

Abreu

(Rosier might make 7.)

[Hugh2]

Calling those guys "veterans" is a bit of a stretch.

 

Refsnyder played in a career-high 82 games this year with an exciting .682 OPS.

 

Duvall was here for one year and doesn't stay healthy for a full season.

 

Yoshida doesn't speak English and has only been on this team (and country) for not even a year now.

 

Those aren't exactly known, veteran leaders, who you can plug in for a good 150 games + a year. Pretty much none of those guys are that guy. None of them.

[Hugh2]

Yes. SIX.

 

Yoshida

Duran

Refsnyder (one of MLB's best batters vs LHP over the last 2 years)

Dugo

Rafaela

Abreu

(Rosier might make 7.)

 

 

Let me just state for the record that I'm talking about starting-caliber outfielders. I see two on that list if you want to count Yoshida as an outfielder and not a DH. Duran has to show me he can be consistent, and Abreu and Rafaela are almost completely untested. One might always just be a guy who adds value on defense, and the other might just be a platoon player. Could they be more? absolutely, but you're banking on that AND plugging Yoshida or rolling with a platoon?

 

Does anyone else remember when the Boston Red Sox use to act like the Boston Red Sox?

[moonslav59]

We have 6 outfiedlers? That group consists of guys like Refsnyder.

 

That would be like pointing out we have John Schrieber when talking about building a rotation.

 

I like having a consistent player you know can play good D and at least provide you with an average offense. I'm also good at banking on him having a good contract year. His track record is there, even if he's not an all star he's a fine player to have under control. Duran literally had two good months, he could turn back into a pumpkin, Yoshida is an ok hitter who can't field, and Refsyner is a strictly platoon bat. Rafaela is largely unproven, and might even need more seasoning in AAA, Abreu is largely untested, right now it appears he's playing above ALL his projections.

 

Can any one of these things happen? Yes, its much more likely that they do not and perhaps even more likely none of them do. I'd bank on one of them turning out to be a great roster addition in 2024.

 

That outfield just seems like complete irresponsibility to me.

 

Every. single. year. we fall in love with guys who play above their capabilities and EVERY. SINGLE. TIME we expect so much more out of them.

 

What's the saying "the definition of insanity".

 

No one is ever going to convince me that outfield is a good ideal and I"m about 99% sure the Sox agree with me. I will literally buy a pair of Red Sox, put them in a blender, chop them up and eat them if that happens. Mark my words.

 

Do you honestly think this management team is going to fill every single need we have?

 

Where does OF fit on your needs list?

 

Here's mine:

 

1. SP1

2. SP2

3. RHB (2B, C or CF/RF- not DH or LF, PLEASE!)

4. SP3/4

5. 2B, C or RF/CF (one that was not filled by #3)

6. LH RP

7. C, 2B, RF/CF (the one not filled by #3 and #5)

 

I cannot see us adding 7 obvious upgrades, this winter. If we do, I'm with you 100%. Keep Dugo and add Duvall, a 2Bman, Garver at C and 3 SP'ers plus a lefty RP'er.

 

Yahooooo!

[Bellhorn04]

I'm all for the youth movement, you've had enough conversations with me in here to know I can be a bit of a prospect homer at times but I just really value having a solid foundation of guys you can depend on in your lineup, even if they're not all stars.

 

Verdugo isn't a great player, but he's a good player, and you can pretty much slot him in for a 2 WAR season next year. If all of Rafaela, Duran, and ABreu are MASHING between AAA and Boston next year you can always trade him at the deadline to some team desperate to upgrade their outfield.

 

I think you're right, it makes more sense to keep him than trade him.

[moonslav59]

Let me just state for the record that I'm talking about starting-caliber outfielders. I see two on that list if you want to count Yoshida as an outfielder and not a DH. Duran has to show me he can be consistent, and Abreu and Rafaela are almost completely untested. One might always just be a guy who adds value on defense, and the other might just be a platoon player. Could they be more? absolutely, but you're banking on that AND plugging Yoshida or rolling with a platoon?

 

Does anyone else remember when the Boston Red Sox use to act like the Boston Red Sox?

 

Do we have a surefire solid...

2Bman?

Catcher?

SP1?

SP2?

SP4?

LH RP?

 

My point is OF is deeper than those slots and of higher quality and upside potential.

 

If we have enough to do it all, Damn straight: do it!

 

I don't think the commitment is there.

 

I want us to start with our highest need areas, first.

 

If there is money left over, they keep the $9M Dugo.

 

[moonslav59]

I think you're right, it makes more sense to keep him than trade him.

 

We don't even know what the return is. What if it's a RH'd Dugo, exactly?

 

We might trade Dugo to create just enough space for Bellinger. (Doubtful, but he's getting about 40% of Bellinger's estimated AAV.)

[Hugh2]

Do you honestly think this management team is going to fill every single need we have?

 

That's a packaged question but the short answer is no. However every hole is always filled, the question is where do you allocate more resources???. A platoon in the outfield can plug up a hole and that may work fine, but when you're rolling out 1-2 platoons with guys who absoluteyl can't field, and might not be able to hit MLB pitching and you trade away a starter then you're just creating a hole and banking on everything smelling like roses and working out in our favor. I'm not talking about pouring resources into the outfield. I'm talking about NOT subtracting from the outfield. Polar opposites.

 

OF shoots up the list if you trade away a starting right fielder. Although I'd still put Starting pitcher at the top of the list.

 

We also don't know how the Sox are viewing the offseason. They might be looking a guy like Houck who pitched as good as any #1 starting pitcher in innings 1-3, but then fell off. If the Sox see that as a stamina problem and not a stuff problem they might view him as a starter if he can add endurance. He is reportedly making that a focus of his offseason. I still think pitching should be and IS a priority but my point there is they might only really be looking to add one solid starter and not two.

Edited November 7, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Old Red]

I think you're right, it makes more sense to keep him than trade him.

 

Dugy has every reason to be good this year with FA looming after next year.

[Bellhorn04]

We don't even know what the return is. What if it's a RH'd Dugo, exactly?

 

We might trade Dugo to create just enough space for Bellinger. (Doubtful, but he's getting about 40% of Bellinger's estimated AAV.)

 

Bellinger is projected by MLBTR to get 12 freakin' years (LOL). It's not just about the AAV.

[Old Red]

Do we have a surefire solid...

2Bman?

Catcher?

SP1?

SP2?

SP4?

LH RP?

 

My point is OF is deeper than those slots and of higher quality and upside potential.

 

If we have enough to do it all, Damn straight: do it!

 

I don't think the commitment is there.

 

I want us to start with our highest need areas, first.

 

If there is money left over, they keep the $9M Dugo.

 

 

Being deeper does not necessarily mean quality. They went real deep at 2B last year too, but not much quality.

[Bellhorn04]

With Turner gone, there's no reason not to move Yoshida to DH.