Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt they have a very sophisticated value formula, but I do think they just haven't updated his number, since the slump began a few weeks back.

 

I'm going to say his current slump started on July 26.

[moonslav59]

I'm going to say his current slump started on July 26.

 

I guess you can start it in many places.

 

.729 from 8/1 to 9/4 is not really a continuous slump.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess you can start it in many places.

 

.729 from 8/1 to 9/4 is not really a continuous slump.

 

.549 from July 26 to Sept 19

 

You're cherry-picking a better stretch in the middle of a long slump.

[notin]

I could go with Nola and Yamamoto and one big bat. Shopping list complete. Playoffs here we come.

 

Edit: The job isn’t that hard. Get it done.

 

Sort of like saying “just go win the lottery”…

[notin]

Yes, there are lots of possibles.

 

Now, how much money would you be willing to bet, straight up, that they trade both Mayer and Rafaela this offseason?

 

Last time you were super confident and challenged me on wagering the likelihood of both Wacha and Eovaldi getting hurt. And then both went down within a week or so.

 

Plan on jinxing yourself again?

[notin]

What kind of metrics does BTV use? FanGraphs says he's only been worth $3.3 million this year.

 

 

BTV takes into account length of contract and weighs the money against projected WAR value. The reportedly use multiple sites for their projections.

 

It’s like what harmony does, but without the part where he reports only the one source that makes Sox prospects look bad

[moonslav59]

.549 from July 26 to Sept 19

 

You're cherry-picking a better stretch in the middle of a long slump.

 

No. It looks like two seperate slumps, to me. The .729 stretch is over a month long.

 

He was not slumping for 9 full weeks, when half of it was .729.

 

Your numbers are correct, but they can be deceiving. He was really god-awful before and after the stretch where he was at .729. That is a fact, too.

[moonslav59]

BTV takes into account length of contract and weighs the money against projected WAR value. The reportedly use multiple sites for their projections.

 

It’s like what harmony does, but without the part where he reports only the one source that makes Sox prospects look bad

 

He often uses the same source, but picks the time frame that works best at making a Red Sox player look as bad as possible.

 

Futures

Last year

Last 3 years

Career

 

It varies.

[moonslav59]

.549 from July 26 to Sept 19

 

You're cherry-picking a better stretch in the middle of a long slump.

 

It's like saying he's been on a decent .780 stretch since April 1st, and you are cherry-picking this 8 week stretch, right?

[harmony]

He often uses the same source, but picks the time frame that works best at making a Red Sox player look as bad as possible.

 

Futures

Last year

Last 3 years

Career

 

It varies.

Except when the beloved contributor offers stats that place a Red Sox player in a positive light.

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.😀

[moonslav59]

Except when the beloved contributor offers stats that place a Red Sox player in a positive light.

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.😀

 

I'm just here to counter the negativity, my friend!

 

[harmony]

I'm just here to counter the negativity, my friend!

 

That’s a revered role on any baseball forum.

[Bellhorn04]

It's like saying he's been on a decent .780 stretch since April 1st, and you are cherry-picking this 8 week stretch, right?

 

His full season numbers now are not great for a DH. His OPS+ is down to 108. 15 HR and 70 RBI. Yes, you could say I'm pessimistic about him.

[Bellhorn04]

Except when the beloved contributor offers stats that place a Red Sox player in a positive light.

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

 

You are objective, to a large degree, but there seems to a be a little anti-Red Sox bias that sneaks in there, perhaps unconsciously.

[Bellhorn04]

Last time you were super confident and challenged me on wagering the likelihood of both Wacha and Eovaldi getting hurt. And then both went down within a week or so.

 

Plan on jinxing yourself again?

 

The averages are with me this time.

[notin]

The averages are with me this time.

 

What would you say is more likely?

 

1. The Sox deal Mayer and Rafaela for pitching.

 

2. The Sox sign both Yamamoto and Nola.

[moonslav59]

His full season numbers now are not great for a DH. His OPS+ is down to 108. 15 HR and 70 RBI. Yes, you could say I'm pessimistic about him.

 

I'm not optimistic, but I do remain hopeful he adjusts to the league, the culture and the pitching.

 

Maybe his friend joining the team can help that adjustment move more quickly and forcefully.

[moonslav59]

You are objective, to a large degree, but there seems to a be a little anti-Red Sox bias that sneaks in there, perhaps unconsciously.

 

I agree. harmony is more objective than most here. I think he tries to counter some over exuberance, so it tends to sound anti-Sox.

 

I will say, he doesn't often counter posters saying bad things about Sox players, so what's up with that?

 

I guess nobody says, let's trade Mayer and Anthony for Beni, so the need never arises.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Like many hitters, Yoshida has seen his ups and downs. Nobody is denying he's had more downs, recently, and his up have not been as up as those earlier in the season. I'm still not sure we know who the "real Yoshida" is.

 

One can cherry-pick many different ways: here is the season broken into 6 wildly different sizes of samples....

 

.560 first 12 games (53 PAs)

1.186 next 15 (67 PAs)

.751 next 44 (185)

1.121 next 17 (75)

.053 next 5 (19)

.729 next 28 (110)

.285 last 10 (39)

 

Here is another one with 3 making his start seem best...

.900 first 207

.791 middle 192

.611 last 149

 

and another with 3 making his mid-season look best....

.863 first 169 PAs

.907 middle 211

.549 last 168

 

I can't make any to make the end look best, unless I get real crafty...

.719 first 41 PAs

.737 middle 35

.805 last 490

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What would you say is more likely?

 

1. The Sox deal Mayer and Rafaela for pitching.

 

2. The Sox sign both Yamamoto and Nola.

 

If the new boss is hired from outside the org, it will be #1.

 

If the new boss is an old guy/gal already working here, it will be, "The Sox sign both Flaherty and Lorenzen."

[Bellhorn04]

What would you say is more likely?

 

1. The Sox deal Mayer and Rafaela for pitching.

 

2. The Sox sign both Yamamoto and Nola.

 

1. 2.5% chance.

2. 5% chance.

[moonslav59]

If the new boss is hired from outside the org, it will be #1.

 

If the new boss is an old guy/gal already working here, it will be, "The Sox sign both Flaherty and Lorenzen."

 

Maybe we splurge and sign Flaherty, Lorenzen and Seth Lugo.

[notin]

I'm sorry, but innings matter. Gray and Snell don't throw the innings that Nola can.

 

With 8 man bullpens, innings don’t matter like they used to.

 

And there is also a danger in signing for innings…

[notin]

1. 2.5% chance.

2. 5% chance.

 

I was heading “no chance” on trading Mayer and Rafaela yesterday. The odds are increasing.

 

I’d put the chances of signing Yamamoto alone below 5%, let alone as part of a pairing with Nola…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe we splurge and sign Flaherty, Lorenzen and Seth Lugo.

 

Now does that make sense?

 

... maybe, if they each agree to one-year/$10M deals.

 

Seriously, I can maybe see this franchise splurging on one pitcher at market rate. But I'd be shocked if these owners suddenly go Steinbrenner 2009 and blow a billion bucks on a CC/AJ/TEX winter.

 

2004 will be two decades old next season.

[Bellhorn04]

I was heading “no chance” on trading Mayer and Rafaela yesterday. The odds are increasing.

 

I’d put the chances of signing Yamamoto alone below 5%, let alone as part of a pairing with Nola…

 

I think they sign one of Yamamoto, Snell or Nola. But it's all just guessing. We don't know how crazy the prices are going to get.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't see them not doing some things to get the fans interested in 2024. By firing Bloom they pretty much put the onus on themselves to do that.

[notin]

I think they sign one of Yamamoto, Snell or Nola. But it's all just guessing. We don't know how crazy the prices are going to get.

 

And despite the lip service, how the team is going to be run.

 

I mean people have been complaining about Bloom lying for the last 4 years. (Was he dishonest? Or overly optimistic?) The rest of the team carrying his message is still at &Fenway.

[mvp 78]

With 8 man bullpens, innings don’t matter like they used to.

 

And there is also a danger in signing for innings…

 

They matter. Look at how this pen got used up this year. This rotation needs a dawg.

[Hugh2]

They can spend big on one pitcher and trade for a lesser pitcher. All kinds of options. The Sox front office says we deserve a playoff team!

 

I'd rather have them sign two and trade for a big RH bat.

 

An under-the-radar signing for someone to replace Turner if he walks could be Rhys Hoskins. The downside there is you won't have Yoshida moving to DH and you keep him in the field, which might be fine if Verdugo/Rafaela solidifies it out there.

 

Have you guys looked at the position side of free agency? it's about as ugly as I've ever seen it.