Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

[Law has a hate boner for the Sox. MLB Pipeline just isn't very good in general.

 

Honestly, Law seems to have it in for most of the AL East teams sometimes. Except the one that used to cut his paychecks…

[moonslav59]

the mushy middle that will get you nowhere fast

 

30th is way worse, and I happen to think we are better than 16th but maybe not as good as 5th. (7th to 10th is probably where we are, and that is light years better than 26th to 30th.)

 

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Bleis

Cespedes

Rafaela, Abreu, Wikelman, Perales, Zanetello & maybe Yorke and a few others are very respectable prospects.

 

When you figure, we just graduated Bello, Casas, Wong, Crawford and Wink in the last 12 months, it's hard to understand anyone who does not think it is vastly improved over 2019-2020.

[Old Red]

You were optimistic in 2021?

 

After the season yes, but Bloom for some reason didn’t want a 90+ RBI guy coming back, and brought back JBJ, so that was not a good start to the offseason. Story Land was added, so 2022 should have been a lot better, but as well all know it wasn’t.

[moonslav59]

After the season yes, but Bloom for some reason didn’t want a 90+ RBI guy coming back, and brought back JBJ, so that was not a good start to the offseason. Story Land was added, so 2022 should have been a lot better, but as well all know it wasn’t.

 

You weren't optimistic during the season?

[Old Red]

30th is way worse, and I happen to think we are better than 16th but maybe not as good as 5th. (7th to 10th is probably where we are, and that is light years better than 26th to 30th.)

 

Anthony

Teel

Mayer

Bleis

Cespedes

Rafaela, Abreu, Wikelman, Perales, Zanetello & maybe Yorke and a few others are very respectable prospects.

 

When you figure, we just graduated Bello, Casas, Wong, Crawford and Wink in the last 12 months, it's hard to understand anyone who does not think it is vastly improved over 2019-2020.

 

Yes Bello, and Casas have shown more than promise, but the stories of Raf Man, and Abreu haven’t been written yet, so we don’t know how they will turn out. They all could end up as good players, but nothing great, so while they may be a better crop than the farmers before them doesn’t mean they will be good enough to produce a winning team. If none turns out to be a Mookie, or a BOgey, or a Raffy you really haven’t gained that much, so that’s why I have said repeatedly farm rankings don’t necessarily turn into a good ML club. If they do great.

[moonslav59]

After the season yes, but Bloom for some reason didn’t want a 90+ RBI guy coming back, and brought back JBJ, so that was not a good start to the offseason. Story Land was added, so 2022 should have been a lot better, but as well all know it wasn’t.

 

One thing I find interesting about Bloom's winter moves is that I thought the one before 2021 was worse than before 2022 and 2023.

 

The Renfroe acquisition turned to gold, but Richards, Perez II, Marwin, Diekman, Sawamura, Santana and others were worse than...

 

2022

Wacha, Hill, Strahm, but yes, the JBJ trade sucked bigtime

 

2023

Turner, Martin, Jansen, Duvall, Paxton ('22), Yoshi, Kluber

[moonslav59]

Yes Bello, and Casas have shown more than promise, but the stories of Raf Man, and Abreu haven’t been written yet, so we don’t know how they will turn out. They all could end up as good players, but nothing great, so while they may be a better crop than the farmers before them doesn’t mean they will be good enough to produce a winning team. If none turns out to be a Mookie, or a BOgey, or a Raffy you really haven’t gained that much, so that’s why I have said repeatedly farm rankings don’t necessarily turn into a good ML club. If they do great.

 

We all know the value is speculative, even on guys like Bello and Casas to some degree, but the improvement on paper is obvious.

 

Of course, we won't know until we see the results, just as those who slammed DD for "emptying the farm" are now happy he brought us Casas and Bello (and Crawford, Duran...)

 

Not all 16th ranked farms turn out better than 30th ranked farms. I get that. I have gone out of my way to keep saying "speculative, speculative, speculative," but to some extent every move made by GMs are speculative, until you see the results. All we can hope for is to think an improvement on paper will translate to wins and maybe even rings.

 

It's not an exact science, but not thinking Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Blies and Cespedes have major potential and that the likelihood 3-4 end up doing very well isn't something to be happy about, seems a bit harsh, to me, but to each his own.

[Old Red]

We all know the value is speculative, even on guys like Bello and Casas to some degree, but the improvement on paper is obvious.

 

Of course, we won't know until we see the results, just as those who slammed DD for "emptying the farm" are now happy he brought us Casas and Bello (and Crawford, Duran...)

 

Not all 16th ranked farms turn out better than 30th ranked farms. I get that. I have gone out of my way to keep saying "speculative, speculative, speculative," but to some extent every move made by GMs are speculative, until you see the results. All we can hope for is to think an improvement on paper will translate to wins and maybe even rings.

 

It's not an exact science, but not thinking Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Blies and Cespedes have major potential and that the likelihood 3-4 end up doing very well isn't something to be happy about, seems a bit harsh, to me, but to each his own.

I just take more of a wait, and see attitude, so I really wouldn’t call that a bit harsh.

[Hugh2]

Law has a hate boner for the Sox. MLB Pipeline just isn't very good in general.

 

Which is why I've been a long disbeliever of them way before this year's rankings.

 

Law, for the first time I can ever remember for a Sox pick, does seem to have the hots for Teel.

[Hugh2]

I just take more of a wait, and see attitude, so I really wouldn’t call that a bit harsh.

 

You never know how someone will turn out, but having more of those increases your chances.

 

It's like having a loto ticket that has a 1/25 chance of hitting. Having 40 of those instead of 10 makes it likely you're going to be better. And those guys don't have to be Betts or Bogaerts, they just have to be good enough so you can go out and build a team around them. You need a strong 26-man, thats why 2018 won. Was having Betts and Bogaerts that year better than having Ohtani and Trout?

 

Having a strong farm increases the odds that you can have that complete 26-man team, because you need to be strong up and down. Sometimes a prospect fails expectations but still becomes good man on the back end of your roster, there's value in that when other guys like Bello and Casas pan out. For example, maybe Mayer falls short of expectations and is more of a utility type but Roman Anthony becomes a perennial MVP candidate. We just don't know.

 

But having a strong farm system is like trying to predict the weather. YOu don't know what it will do in a week from now, but if it's the summer or winter you can pretty accurately predict if it will be hot or cold!!!!!

[moonslav59]

I just take more of a wait, and see attitude, so I really wouldn’t call that a bit harsh.

 

Not being able to bring yourself to just say, "it looks better now than in 2019" seems a bit harsh, to me. But, I'm not you, so I get it.

[Old Red]

Not being able to bring yourself to just say, "it looks better now than in 2019" seems a bit harsh, to me. But, I'm not you, so I get it.

 

Looks, and actually being are two different things. Just like the here, and now that I preached about for the last two years was the most important thing. It makes you feel better to say the rankings are better ,so that makes the future better, but when it actually gets better, and I expect it will with Bloom gone then I will see things differently.

[sk7326]

Honestly, Law seems to have it in for most of the AL East teams sometimes. Except the one that used to cut his paychecks…

 

I think he had the Blue Jays 17th on his list ... he was a very big fan of the Sox work on the farm under Theo and Cherington.

 

In one of his chats, Law said - as far as rankings go - that his own rankings, MLB.com, ESPN and Fangraphs are all worthwhile. They are opinions - but they all have dedicated people who actually see the players (or as many of the top ones as is feasible). They are limited because they don't have the information that teams have - particularly Statcast data. And of course, all of the scouts at these public-facing services hate your team.

[sk7326]

One thing I find interesting about Bloom's winter moves is that I thought the one before 2021 was worse than before 2022 and 2023.

 

The Renfroe acquisition turned to gold, but Richards, Perez II, Marwin, Diekman, Sawamura, Santana and others were worse than...

 

2022

Wacha, Hill, Strahm, but yes, the JBJ trade sucked bigtime

 

2023

Turner, Martin, Jansen, Duvall, Paxton ('22), Yoshi, Kluber

 

They were all dice rolls that came up about the right rate - alas most of it in 2021. The JBJ reacquisition was probably the only one you couldn't REALLY squint and imagine a good 80th percentile outcome.

[Hugh2]

They were all dice rolls that came up about the right rate - alas most of it in 2021. The JBJ reacquisition was probably the only one you couldn't REALLY squint and imagine a good 80th percentile outcome.

 

 

I remember justifying the trade at the time. It was my believe they wanted JBJ as a 4th outfielder to improve the defense and they would go out and get a starting right fielder.

 

Bloom did not, the team suffered for it.

[Old Red]

I remember justifying the trade at the time. It was my believe they wanted JBJ as a 4th outfielder to improve the defense and they would go out and get a starting right fielder.

 

Bloom did not, the team suffered for it.

The 4th outfielder turned out to be Arroyo for awhile.

[moonslav59]

You never know how someone will turn out, but having more of those increases your chances.

 

It's like having a loto ticket that has a 1/25 chance of hitting. Having 40 of those instead of 10 makes it likely you're going to be better. And those guys don't have to be Betts or Bogaerts, they just have to be good enough so you can go out and build a team around them. You need a strong 26-man, thats why 2018 won. Was having Betts and Bogaerts that year better than having Ohtani and Trout?

 

Having a strong farm increases the odds that you can have that complete 26-man team, because you need to be strong up and down. Sometimes a prospect fails expectations but still becomes good man on the back end of your roster, there's value in that when other guys like Bello and Casas pan out. For example, maybe Mayer falls short of expectations and is more of a utility type but Roman Anthony becomes a perennial MVP candidate. We just don't know.

 

But having a strong farm system is like trying to predict the weather. YOu don't know what it will do in a week from now, but if it's the summer or winter you can pretty accurately predict if it will be hot or cold!!!!!

 

The thing is, Bloom has done more than just draft and sign IFAs to improve the farm. His trades, and Rule 5 selections have already given dividends, and that is not "speculative," anymore. (Some still are to varying degrees.)

 

Already give us plau production: (bWAR)

4.9 Whitlock

2.4 Wong

1.5 Winckowski

0.9 Bernardino (-0.2 w SEA and 1.1 w BOS)

0.7 WAbreu (20 gms)

0.2 ZKelly (19 games)

 

TBD:

GGambrell

EValdez

Rosier

NRobertson

TDenlinger

L de la Rosa

 

Not much of a shot....

RHernandez

DHam

MFerguson

ABinelas

 

[moonslav59]

Looks, and actually being are two different things. Just like the here, and now that I preached about for the last two years was the most important thing. It makes you feel better to say the rankings are better ,so that makes the future better, but when it actually gets better, and I expect it will with Bloom gone then I will see things differently.

 

The prospects just got better with Bloom gone.

[Old Red]

The prospects just got better with Bloom gone.

 

No, but hopefully the decision making, or lack of decision making will, and maybe whoever is charge now will understand the here in now is what’s most important, and the here, and now is coming up onto October when the haves play, and the have nots watch.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

No, but hopefully the decision making, or lack of decision making will, and maybe whoever is charge now will understand the here in now is what’s most important, and the here, and now is coming up onto October when the haves play, and the have nots watch.

 

I meant to say, "The prospects got better and baseball is now less watered down" now that Bloom is gone.

[moonslav59]

Does this affect the desire to sign ERod, this winter?

 

Tigers left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez exited yesterday’s 8-3 loss against the Dodgers in the fourth inning due to what the club has termed a scapula spasm.

-MLBTR

[Bellhorn04]

Does this affect the desire to sign ERod, this winter?

 

Tigers left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez exited yesterday’s 8-3 loss against the Dodgers in the fourth inning due to what the club has termed a scapula spasm.

-MLBTR

 

He would only have been a free agent if he opted out. This makes it less likely he opts out.

[moonslav59]

Some SP'ers who will or may be FAs, this coming winter:

 

Yamamoto

Ohtani

Nola

Snell

Gray

 

ERod

Montgomery

Wacha

Kershaw

Morton

 

Stroman

Giolito

 

Cobb

Paxton

Lynn

Gibson

Flaherty

Lorenezen

S Lugo

Clevinger

 

Did I miss anyone important?

 

[notin]

Tyler Mahle

[Maxbialystock]

Yes Bello, and Casas have shown more than promise, but the stories of Raf Man, and Abreu haven’t been written yet, so we don’t know how they will turn out. They all could end up as good players, but nothing great, so while they may be a better crop than the farmers before them doesn’t mean they will be good enough to produce a winning team. If none turns out to be a Mookie, or a BOgey, or a Raffy you really haven’t gained that much, so that’s why I have said repeatedly farm rankings don’t necessarily turn into a good ML club. If they do great.

 

On the other hand, neglecting your farm system is a recipe for disaster. You must do both: develop good players who will contribute in Boston; supplement them with acquisitions from other teams.

[Old Red]

On the other hand, neglecting your farm system is a recipe for disaster. You must do both: develop good players who will contribute in Boston; supplement them with acquisitions from other teams.

 

I never said you never did both. My main point for the last two years was making the farm better is good as long as it is not at the expense of the big league club, which I believe it has been the last two years.

[Old Red]

He would only have been a free agent if he opted out. This makes it less likely he opts out.

 

He turned down a chance to go to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, so it’s hard telling what he’ll do. I’ve said before i don’t like opt out clauses, because it just holds the team hostage like JD did to the Red Sox for a couple of years. Will he, or won’t he?

[mvp 78]

The 4th outfielder turned out to be Arroyo for awhile.

 

You didn't like that plan?!?!?!?

[mvp 78]

He would only have been a free agent if he opted out. This makes it less likely he opts out.

 

I didn't think he was going to opt out anyway. He's missed significant amount of time during his current contract. He's just going to ride this out.

[Old Red]

You didn't like that plan?!?!?!?

 

He would have been my #1 pick. Especially in RF at Fenway.