Trade Deadline 2023

[Bellhorn04]

Are you sure they don’t compensate for that?

 

I don’t know either. But if you read Bitzer’s articles and posts, they do adjust values for very marketable players (like Betts) and they also knock down values of some players who require a 40 man roster spot…

 

I am absolutely not sure. Hard to figure how you could factor in postseason value. Chapman was a prime example of this for the Cubs.

[moonslav59]

There’s no reason for the sellers to accept any deal that doesn’t blow them away…

 

Sure there is. Why get nothing for a departing player? It’s better to get less than you hoped for than nothing.

 

Comp pick cases are different, but in those instances, all you need in return is a value greater than the comp pick to make the deal worthy.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure there is. Why get nothing for a departing player? It’s better to get less than you hoped for than nothing.

 

Comp pick cases are different, but in those instances, all you need in return is a value greater than the comp pick to make the deal worthy.

 

I think notin meant no reason to do it this early in the game.

[notin]

I am absolutely not sure. Hard to figure how you could factor in postseason value. Chapman was a prime example of this for the Cubs.

 

It’s easy for them to attach some compensation. Is it accurate? Probably not.

 

And maybe they don’t factor it at all simply because acquiring a player like Chapmen in July doesn’t guarantee even making the postseason…

[moonslav59]

I think notin meant no reason to do it this early in the game.

 

Looks that way.

[moonslav59]

It’s easy for them to attach some compensation. Is it accurate? Probably not.

 

And maybe they don’t factor it at all simply because acquiring a player like Chapmen in July doesn’t guarantee even making the postseason…

 

I doubt they add value for the playoffs.

 

You’d think the value would then be greater for the Braves than the Sox, since the Braves are a lock to make the playoffs.

[notin]

I doubt they add value for the playoffs.

 

You’d think the value would then be greater for the Braves than the Sox, since the Braves are a lock to make the playoffs.

 

 

The idea of a static trade value means it doesn’t get situation/team-dependent.

 

One could argue the inverse - that the trade value should be lower for the Braves because they need the upgrade less than the Sox.

 

Also, no team is a “lock” to make the playoffs until that Magic Number hits 0. Collapses happen. The Sox looked like a lock in August, 2011, too.

 

I remember the 2007 Mets had a 7 game lead with 17 games to play and missed the postseason…

[moonslav59]

The idea of a static trade value means it doesn’t get situation/team-dependent.

 

One could argue the inverse - that the trade value should be lower for the Braves because they need the upgrade less than the Sox.

 

Also, no team is a “lock” to make the playoffs until that Magic Number hits 0. Collapses happen. The Sox looked like a lock in August, 2011, too.

 

I remember the 2007 Mets had a 7 game lead with 17 games to play and missed the postseason…

 

The "playoff value" should be more for teams with better chances of making them.

 

The seasonal value means more to teams like the Sox.

 

BTW, the Braves are a lock. Book it.

[moonslav59]

The idea of a static trade value means it doesn’t get situation/team-dependent.

 

One could argue the inverse - that the trade value should be lower for the Braves because they need the upgrade less than the Sox.

 

Also, no team is a “lock” to make the playoffs until that Magic Number hits 0. Collapses happen. The Sox looked like a lock in August, 2011, too.

 

I remember the 2007 Mets had a 7 game lead with 17 games to play and missed the postseason…

 

Fangraphs says the Braves have a 100% chance to make the playoffs. That's good enough for me.

 

Other NL Teams:

%

95 LAD

78 SFG

71 MIL & PHI

57 AZ

51 MIA

 

6 teams make the playoffs, and 7 have better than a 50% chance at making them. They give the Braves a 25% chance at winning the WS. The Dodgers and Rays are at 12%.

 

In the AL, there are no locks, but the Rays come close:

97 TBR

84 TEX

79 BAL (one more loss than TBR)

77 TOR

69 MIN (2 more losses than BOS)

65 HOU (many injuries)

 

Only 6 teams have a 50%+ chance at the playoffs.

 

36 NYY

33 BOS

30 CLE

15 SEA

[mvp 78]

Didn't the Reds get a pretty good haul for Castillo?

 

Yes, you get good players when you deal off an ace. That's about the only time.

[mvp 78]

one that Blooms seems to like doing. I expect more of the sam this deadline

 

They won't be over the CBT this year.

[moonslav59]

Yes, you get good players when you deal off an ace. That's about the only time.

 

I think a guy like Castillo would have gotten more, several years ago, but yes. It still costs a lot for a rental ace.

 

Note: Castillo had one more arb year left, so he was not a "rental."

[Jasonbay44]

Yes, you get good players when you deal off an ace. That's about the only time.

 

They got a pretty amazing haul for Tyler Mahle too

[mvp 78]

They got a pretty amazing haul for Tyler Mahle too

 

Reds acquire: INF Spencer Steer (Twins’ No. 7), LHP Steve Hajjar (No. 18), INF Christian Encarnacion-Strand (No. 23)

 

Three club top 30 prospects isn't "amazing" IMO for 1.5 years of control of a mid rotation guy.

[notin]

Yes, you get good players when you deal off an ace. That's about the only time.

 

Cubs got their #1 prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong for 2 months of Javier Baez…

[mvp 78]

Cubs got their #1 prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong for 2 months of Javier Baez…

 

Mets going to Mets...

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

Chaim Bloom and Eddie Romero have made it clear the Red Sox will decide their fate during this stretch.

 

Sucks to lose all the momentum you’ve been building the last few weeks. Yesterday was such a winnable game.

 

Lots riding on this Mets series. You better show up.

 

At this point, they really need to almost sweep the Mets for the Sox to really be big time buyers this deadline. A tough two game series followed by a West Coast swing to SF/SEA isn't how you want to go into the trade deadline when you're behind in the Wild Card. Sox had some momentum, but laid two straight eggs.

 

I don't think they'll be sellers, but they'll do some sort of half measure that we won't be all that happy about IMO.

[moonslav59]

 

I don't think they'll be sellers, but they'll do some sort of half measure that we won't be all that happy about IMO.

 

I could see us thinking about selling high on Walter or Murphy. Selling low on Mata might be a mistake, but he could be a throw in. I think we will trade Duvall, even if we are mostly buyers.

 

BTV accepted:

 

To BOS: Stroman

 

To SFG: Duvall & Walter

 

To CHC: Perales & Simon

 

[mvp 78]

@mlbtraderumors

Dallas Keuchel Has Friday Opt-Out In Deal With Twins

[Randy Red Sox]

so?? he's terrible

@mlbtraderumors

Dallas Keuchel Has Friday Opt-Out In Deal With Twins

[Hugh2]

I wouldn’t expect an ACE but the Sox will look to add a starter. I think they have too

[Hugh2]

Cubs got their #1 prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong for 2 months of Javier Baez…

 

But he wasn’t at the time, he wasn’t ranked and was a lottery ticket at the time. Cubs hit

[Randy Red Sox]

i saw an article on MLB about a prospect from each team that could be traded. For the LAD it was a RHP named Sheehan. Wonder what it would take to pry him from the Dodgers?

I wouldn’t expect an ACE but the Sox will look to add a starter. I think they have too

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t expect an ACE but the Sox will look to add a starter. I think they have too

 

Like Stroman, Giolito or ____?

[Randy Red Sox]

just NO NO NO to Stroman. NO NO NO

Like Stroman, Giolito or ____?

[Randy Red Sox]

[bloom needs to add a young cost controlled SP like Sheehan from the LAD. Never mind rentals. QUOTE=moonslav59;1548815]Like Stroman, Giolito or ____?

[moonslav59]

just NO NO NO to Stroman. NO NO NO

 

Why not?

 

20 GS

119 IP (about 6 IP/GS)

2.88 ERA

155 ERA+ leads league

.560 OPS Against is astounding for a SP over 6 IP per start x 20

0.5 HR/9 leads league

1.087 WHIP

 

He's getting better:

last 11 starts

2.62 ERA

.517 OPS Against

 

He's pitching like an ace.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

Why not?

 

20 GS

119 IP (about 6 IP/GS)

2.88 ERA

155 ERA+ leads league

.560 OPS Against is astounding for a SP over 6 IP per start x 20

0.5 HR/9 leads league

1.087 WHIP

 

He's getting better:

last 11 starts

2.62 ERA

.517 OPS Against

 

He's pitching like an ace.

 

 

yeah, not sure anyone would be against Stroman. i'd take him in a minute.

[notin]

But he wasn’t at the time, he wasn’t ranked and was a lottery ticket at the time. Cubs hit

 

He was a first round draft pick just 12 months prior. He wasn’t some minor league veteran late bloomer. He wasn’t ranked because before that he was in high school.

 

The Mets gave him up for a rental pretty quickly…

Edited July 21, 2023 by notin

[notin]

yeah, not sure anyone would be against Stroman. i'd take him in a minute.

 

The sleeper this off-season might be Steve Matz, who outfield Stroman last night.

 

Matz’ “back of the card” numbers have been weak in St. Louis, but his velocity and K% are right where they were when he was an effective pitcher for Toronto.

 

Matz is owed $25mill over the last 2 years of his deal with St. Louis ($11mill AAV). His BTV trade value is (-0.1).