Moneyball

[Maxbialystock]

Near the end of the movie Moneyball Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) travels to Boston and Fenway Park to meet with the new Sox owner, John Henry (Arliss Howard), who is eager to tell Billy just what a monumental achievement the A's season had been.

 

He did that by comparing the cost per win that season (2003) between the Yankees (101 wins) and the A's (96 wins). From those numbers he concludes that any team that doesn't use sabermetrics is dumb.

 

However, we now know that, while John Henry may have admired the A's efficiency and use of sabermetrics, he did not hesitate to spend bucks for good players with the result that the Sox went several sold out years (sort of) and even this season, 9-9 after a season in which the Sox finished dead last in AL East, they are averaging 31,000 attendance. He didn't re-sign Bogaerts, but did keep Devers.

 

And the Rays with that absolutely brilliant opening run of 13 straight wins? They average 17,000 attendance.

I did a quick look at their cost per win this season and it's a terrific $555K. But it has to be that low because they have no fan base.

 

The LA Dodgers, on the other hand, are 9-9 this season--same as our Sox--but they average 50,000 attendees per game. Padres are 8-11 and average 41,000. Yankees, 10-7, average 39,000. Phillies, 7-11, average 38,000. All of those team have expensive star power--and pretty good fan bases.

 

Where I am headed with this? Simple. Fans these days don't care nearly as much about wins and losses as they do about star power.

 

Last week the Angels with Ohtani and Trout came to town and the Sox average attendance was 36,000. Last night with the no-name Twins, 28,000. And the Twins are a better team than the Angels thanks to their superb pitching. Good pitching doesn't mean squat unless the guy on the mound is a zillionaire.

 

Relatedly, look at the stories about MLB. Commentators talk or write endlessly about big salaries and how those pricey players are worth every dime. And you can bet they hated having to talk/write about the cheap charlie Rays winning 13 straight.

 

Bottom line: the thesis of Moneyball as stated by John Henry, not Billy Beane, is baloney. Winning isn't everything, not by a long shot, unless you have star power to go with it.

[Nick]

Near the end of the movie Moneyball Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) travels to Boston and Fenway Park to meet with the new Sox owner, John Henry (Arliss Howard), who is eager to tell Billy just what a monumental achievement the A's season had been.

 

He did that by comparing the cost per win that season (2003) between the Yankees (101 wins) and the A's (96 wins). From those numbers he concludes that any team that doesn't use sabermetrics is dumb.

 

However, we now know that, while John Henry may have admired the A's efficiency and use of sabermetrics, he did not hesitate to spend bucks for good players with the result that the Sox went several sold out years (sort of) and even this season, 9-9 after a season in which the Sox finished dead last in AL East, they are averaging 31,000 attendance. He didn't re-sign Bogaerts, but did keep Devers.

 

And the Rays with that absolutely brilliant opening run of 13 straight wins? They average 17,000 attendance.

I did a quick look at their cost per win this season and it's a terrific $555K. But it has to be that low because they have no fan base.

 

The LA Dodgers, on the other hand, are 9-9 this season--same as our Sox--but they average 50,000 attendees per game. Padres are 8-11 and average 41,000. Yankees, 10-7, average 39,000. Phillies, 7-11, average 38,000. All of those team have expensive star power--and pretty good fan bases.

 

Where I am headed with this? Simple. Fans these days don't care nearly as much about wins and losses as they do about star power.

 

Last week the Angels with Ohtani and Trout came to town and the Sox average attendance was 36,000. Last night with the no-name Twins, 28,000. And the Twins are a better team than the Angels thanks to their superb pitching. Good pitching doesn't mean squat unless the guy on the mound is a zillionaire.

 

Relatedly, look at the stories about MLB. Commentators talk or write endlessly about big salaries and how those pricey players are worth every dime. And you can bet they hated having to talk/write about the cheap charlie Rays winning 13 straight.

 

Bottom line: the thesis of Moneyball as stated by John Henry, not Billy Beane, is baloney. Winning isn't everything, not by a long shot, unless you have star power to go with it.

 

Well thought out.

 

But consider this.

 

Is it possible that baseball made a mistake by placing a team in Tampa, Florida? PERIOD.

 

You can put the Angels in Tampa and I bet you that they wouldn't draw many more fans. (Unless there's a huge Japanese population there).

 

So it's not only not about lack of star power. It's the lack of Tampa baseball fanbase. Half of their fans come see the Yankees or the Red Sox when those teams are in town.

 

The team simply needs move to another city.

[Bellhorn04]

Another factor that has to be taken into account is the huge amount of money that comes from fans who watch the games on cable TV, computers and portable devices...

[Nick]

I'm going to digress but stay on the movie theme.

 

I love the movie The Trouble with the Curve.

 

I love the scene when the owner watches his first round draft pick flails at the 'kid's' curveball.

 

He says to the general manager after another swing and miss on a curveball, "Nobody saw this?"

 

My thoughts every time Yoshida tops another softer grounder. None of the Sox scout analysists saw this?

[Hugh2]

Imagine if Tampa and Colorado switched places 15 years ago. That would be a rabid fanbase up in the rockies, might even have a ring or two. It would be interesting to see how $$$ rolling in might change ownerships financial moves.

[Maxbialystock]

Well thought out.

 

But consider this.

 

Is it possible that baseball made a mistake by placing a team in Tampa, Florida? PERIOD.

 

You can put the Angels in Tampa and I bet you that they wouldn't draw many more fans. (Unless there's a huge Japanese population there).

 

So it's not only not about lack of star power. It's the lack of Tampa baseball fanbase. Half of their fans come see the Yankees or the Red Sox when those teams are in town.

 

The team simply needs move to another city.

 

Completely agree about Tampa and have said so repeatedly in the past.

[Maxbialystock]

Another factor that has to be taken into account is the huge amount of money that comes from fans who watch the games on cable TV, computers and portable devices...

 

That's true, but my assumption is that butts in seats are a reliable indicator of the overall fan base.

[mvp 78]

Rays in person attendance is piss poor, but their TV ratings are middle of the road. They should be given a stadium in a better location to see if they can sustain a franchise before moving.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm going to digress but stay on the movie theme.

 

I love the movie The Trouble with the Curve.

 

I love the scene when the owner watches his first round draft pick flails at the 'kid's' curveball.

 

He says to the general manager after another swing and miss on a curveball, "Nobody saw this?"

 

My thoughts every time Yoshida tops another softer grounder. None of the Sox scout analysists saw this?

 

Somebody else (or was it you) said something like this on another thread. They basically said, "yeah, Bloom blew it on Yoshida, but the Sox scouting system is also guilty of recommending him so highly."

 

Also, apropos of the movie Trouble With the Curve, the Sox scouts could only have watched Yoshida in Japan. In the movie, the high school prospect was scouted in North Carolina. The hope for Yoshida is that he needs time to adjust to playing MLB in the good old USA.

[Maxbialystock]

Imagine if Tampa and Colorado switched places 15 years ago. That would be a rabid fanbase up in the rockies, might even have a ring or two. It would be interesting to see how $$$ rolling in might change ownerships financial moves.

 

Absolutely. I think in the Rays case necessity was the mother of invention.

 

In fact, going back to my OP in which I denigrate sabermetrics and being smart, what I love about the Rays management is that have in fact built a terrific system for identifying and developing not only good pitchers, but good lineup players who aren't paid anywhere near as much as the the superstars the media keep talking about.

 

I would love to see John Henry and Chaim Bloom build a team like that. But at the same time I fear such a team would not put butts in seats, not even at Fenway.

 

Thus my examples of the attendance at the Angels games last week and the Twins last night. The Twins have terrific pitching, but lack star power. The Angels have Ohtani and Trout. In fact, one of us wrote he attended one of the Angels games precisely because he'd never seen Trout play in person. And, oh, by the way, no fan worth his salt in the 1930's should have turned down an opportunity to watch Babe Ruth. Forget Lou Gehrig and the Yankees Murderer's Row, the Babe was absolutely worth the price of admission.

[notin]

Near the end of the movie Moneyball Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) travels to Boston and Fenway Park to meet with the new Sox owner, John Henry (Arliss Howard), who is eager to tell Billy just what a monumental achievement the A's season had been.

 

He did that by comparing the cost per win that season (2003) between the Yankees (101 wins) and the A's (96 wins). From those numbers he concludes that any team that doesn't use sabermetrics is dumb.

 

However, we now know that, while John Henry may have admired the A's efficiency and use of sabermetrics, he did not hesitate to spend bucks for good players with the result that the Sox went several sold out years (sort of) and even this season, 9-9 after a season in which the Sox finished dead last in AL East, they are averaging 31,000 attendance. He didn't re-sign Bogaerts, but did keep Devers.

 

And the Rays with that absolutely brilliant opening run of 13 straight wins? They average 17,000 attendance.

I did a quick look at their cost per win this season and it's a terrific $555K. But it has to be that low because they have no fan base.

 

The LA Dodgers, on the other hand, are 9-9 this season--same as our Sox--but they average 50,000 attendees per game. Padres are 8-11 and average 41,000. Yankees, 10-7, average 39,000. Phillies, 7-11, average 38,000. All of those team have expensive star power--and pretty good fan bases.

 

Where I am headed with this? Simple. Fans these days don't care nearly as much about wins and losses as they do about star power.

 

Last week the Angels with Ohtani and Trout came to town and the Sox average attendance was 36,000. Last night with the no-name Twins, 28,000. And the Twins are a better team than the Angels thanks to their superb pitching. Good pitching doesn't mean squat unless the guy on the mound is a zillionaire.

 

Relatedly, look at the stories about MLB. Commentators talk or write endlessly about big salaries and how those pricey players are worth every dime. And you can bet they hated having to talk/write about the cheap charlie Rays winning 13 straight.

 

Bottom line: the thesis of Moneyball as stated by John Henry, not Billy Beane, is baloney. Winning isn't everything, not by a long shot, unless you have star power to go with it.

 

Think those attendance numbers in Philly stay up if wins stay down?

 

I’m not so sure “star power” is the attraction nearly as much as active, high-spending offseasons are, since those send the message to the fanbase that ownership will not let money stop them from competing…

[Maxbialystock]

Rays in person attendance is piss poor, but their TV ratings are middle of the road. They should be given a stadium in a better location to see if they can sustain a franchise before moving.

 

Agree. The Tampa/St Petersburg/Clearwater metro statistical area has a population of 3.1 million.

 

Interestingly, because Tampa is next to the Gulf, daytime high in the summer is normally 91 and rarely 100. However, May to October is also the rainy season, so an indoor stadium is probably needed.

[Hugh2]

I'm trying to decide if the Rays deserve a fan base....or if Tampa just doesn't deserve a team.

[Hugh2]

Rays in person attendance is piss poor, but their TV ratings are middle of the road. They should be given a stadium in a better location to see if they can sustain a franchise before moving.

 

That's an interesting take, it gave me pause, but then I thought that's a LOT of money to invest for a team that can't draw any fans. What if they're wrong? and no on one still goes to any games.

 

I don't know what baseball stadiums go for these days but I'd imagine they're pushing a billion. Maybe Yankee stadium just cost more because of NYC real estate, maybe it's closer to half that but I'm sure it's hundreds of millions of dollars.

[moonslav59]

I'm trying to decide if the Rays deserve a fan base....or if Tampa just doesn't deserve a team.

 

Too many New England transplants to ever get enough people to follow the local team.

 

It happens some, here in Houston, too. Huge city, but there are tons of non-Astros fans everywhere.

[Maxbialystock]

Think those attendance numbers in Philly stay up if wins stay down?

 

I’m not so sure “star power” is the attraction nearly as much as active, high-spending offseasons are, since those send the message to the fanbase that ownership will not let money stop them from competing…

 

Both points are excellent because Phillies fans are notoriously picky. Last year they won 87 games to the Sox 78, but the Sox got more butts in seats, 2.6M to 2.2M. 32K per game vs. 28K per game.

[Maxbialystock]

Both points are excellent because Phillies fans are notoriously picky. Last year they won 87 games to the Sox 78, but the Sox got more butts in seats, 2.6M to 2.2M. 32K per game vs. 28K per game.

 

My view is that Sox fans come back after a good year, but not necessarily during one. I expect Phillies fans are the same. They love what their team did in the postseason, but they also love DD doing his thing.

[Maxbialystock]

That's an interesting take, it gave me pause, but then I thought that's a LOT of money to invest for a team that can't draw any fans. What if they're wrong? and no on one still goes to any games.

 

I don't know what baseball stadiums go for these days but I'd imagine they're pushing a billion. Maybe Yankee stadium just cost more because of NYC real estate, maybe it's closer to half that but I'm sure it's hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

Good point. However, it is not uncommon for the city to assume some of the cost.

 

Nevertheless, your point is probably the explanation for why no stadium has been built or even discussed.

[mvp 78]

Too many New England transplants to ever get enough people to follow the local team.

 

It happens some, here in Houston, too. Huge city, but there are tons of non-Astros fans everywhere.

 

The New Englanders typically moved to the East Coast down 95 while Mid-West moves to the Gulf down 75. However, that doesn't prevent people from attending baseball games.

[mvp 78]

That's an interesting take, it gave me pause, but then I thought that's a LOT of money to invest for a team that can't draw any fans. What if they're wrong? and no on one still goes to any games.

 

I don't know what baseball stadiums go for these days but I'd imagine they're pushing a billion. Maybe Yankee stadium just cost more because of NYC real estate, maybe it's closer to half that but I'm sure it's hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

What if they build at new baseball stadium in a brand new city that doesn't draw any fans? Why not pull the Tigers out of Detroit and the Orioles out of Baltimore? Those teams aren't drawing either. The Rays consistently get better TV ratings that the Marlins. Move the Marlins?

[moonslav59]

The New Englanders typically moved to the East Coast down 95 while Mid-West moves to the Gulf down 75. However, that doesn't prevent people from attending baseball games.

 

I go to Astros games, when they play the Sox.

 

My point was that there are a significant amount of baseball fans that will never become Rays fans and or attend any games not against their favorite team. It does not help small and mid market teams to have that dynamic.

 

It's just one factor- not the whole ball of wax.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I always assumed Florida as a retiring (and thus expiring) state could never build a steady fanbase that would overlap generations like traditional regions in Boston, NY, Chicago, etc.

 

But there's plenty of underrated star power in Tampa that Red Sox fans would love to root for if the uniforms of the two rosters were reversed. And you can bet Yankee fans would also be chanting the names of Franco, Arozarena, Lowe, Diaz and McClanahan if they were in pinstripes, too.

[mvp 78]

I go to Astros games, when they play the Sox.

 

My point was that there are a significant amount of baseball fans that will never become Rays fans and or attend any games not against their favorite team. It does not help small and mid market teams to have that dynamic.

 

It's just one factor- not the whole ball of wax.

 

Do you go to Astros games when they don't play the Red Sox?

 

When I lived in LA, I went to as many Dodgers Stadium as often as I went to Fenway Park when I lived in MA. When I lived in SF, I went to SF games.

 

Now, I'm 2.5 hours away from the closest stadium so it's not really the same.

[mvp 78]

I always assumed Florida as a retiring (and thus expiring) state could never build a steady fanbase that would overlap generations like traditional regions in Boston, NY, Chicago, etc.

 

But there's plenty of underrated star power in Tampa that Red Sox fans would love to root for if the uniforms of the two rosters were reversed. And you can bet Yankee fans would also be chanting the names of Franco, Arozarena, Lowe, Diaz and McClanahan if they were in pinstripes, too.

 

There are plenty of kids here that grow up liking the Rays and Marlins. We have to remember that those franchises didn't exist generations ago.

 

People LOVE the Dolphins here (est 1965). If the Rays or Marlins had been around as long, their fanbases would also be much larger.

[Maxbialystock]

What if they build at new baseball stadium in a brand new city that doesn't draw any fans? Why not pull the Tigers out of Detroit and the Orioles out of Baltimore? Those teams aren't drawing either. The Rays consistently get better TV ratings that the Marlins. Move the Marlins?

 

Detroit population has gone down from 1.85M in 1950 to 640K in 2020. Income is no doubt also down.

 

Baltimore got hit with a double whammy. First Peter Angelos (owner), who is incompetent, then the Nationals, who sucked up a bunch of MLB fans, not necessarily Orioles fans, who loved going to watch MLB at Camden Yards. I've been to games at both parks and both have good sightlines and decent parking. Plus Nationals Park is a lot closer to N.Virginia which has a sizable population--2 million.

 

Charlotte, NC might work. Austin, TX? Jacksonville, FL? Indianapolis, IN?

Edited April 19, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

There are plenty of kids here that grow up liking the Rays and Marlins. We have to remember that those franchises didn't exist generations ago.

 

People LOVE the Dolphins here (est 1965). If the Rays or Marlins had been around as long, their fanbases would also be much larger.

 

So you're saying the Trop--and not the fan base--is the problem.

[moonslav59]

Do you go to Astros games when they don't play the Red Sox?

 

 

Not once.

 

I went to a couple Skeeters games when seats were discounted.

 

No interest in going to see the Astros play the Yanks.

[notin]

Rays in person attendance is piss poor, but their TV ratings are middle of the road. They should be given a stadium in a better location to see if they can sustain a franchise before moving.

 

I’ve heard many times the issue with that stadium is the location. I assumed it was out in the middle of a swamp or something. But then I went to St. Pete and it’s right off the highway like so many other stadiums. So what’s the deal? Terrible traffic? No parking?

[notin]

There are plenty of kids here that grow up liking the Rays and Marlins. We have to remember that those franchises didn't exist generations ago.

 

People LOVE the Dolphins here (est 1965). If the Rays or Marlins had been around as long, their fanbases would also be much larger.

 

It always seemed to me the Seminoles, Gators and (especially the) Hurricanes were more popular than the Dolphins…

[moonslav59]

I’ve heard many times the issue with that stadium is the location. I assumed it was out in the middle of a swamp or something. But then I went to St. Pete and it’s right off the highway like so many other stadiums. So what’s the deal? Terrible traffic? No parking?

 

I went to opening day in Tampa many years ago. (We blew the game in the 9th. It was the "closer by committee" season.)

 

It was easy in and out, and I liked the stadium. It wasn't great, but I got good seats for pretty cheap.