Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[mvp 78]

Not really.

 

His velocity declined steadily last year, cratering in July/August before a brief spike.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corey-kluber/2429/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2021&end=2023&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

Now he’s down at crater level already. If he continues this decline, he might soon be at the “Division I Softball” level velocity, but from 20 feet further away…

 

Just look at the graph. His second start was worse than anything last season.

 

A "brief spike" of 9 starts that had velo that exceeded anything that we've seen this year. Ok.

[Bellhorn04]

It's blatantly obvious a large factor is the platoon. They aren't going to faithfully follow it but you can see the generally stick to it. THat's obvious to the rest of us.

 

Hugh, if they were staying with anything like a platoon Wong would not have started 2 of 3 games in the Twins series with the Twins starting righties. That's pretty obvious to me.

[Hugh2]

Hugh, if they were staying with anything like a platoon Wong would not have started 2 of 3 games in the Twins series with the Twins starting righties. That's pretty obvious to me.

 

They very well may favor Wong as their catcher, and a platoon doesn't have to be a strict platoon. If you want to go within ever smaller sample sizes that's fine we can see how the rest of the season plays out. I can't fault you for thinking the Sox may be viewing Wong as the superior catcher. I can see that too right now.

 

It's the hate on McGuire that I don't understand. I understand that you think he's a bad defensive catcher using only one metric that is almost never used for a good reason AND in such a small sample size. All other factors turn to McGuire being a fine catcher. He has above-average framing and blocking skills and has shown superior pop times and he's been above average at the plate. A lot of teams don't even have that for their #1 catcher and if is our #2 then that means we have an awesome catcher tandem.

[moonslav59]

Most of the EGGS skewing those CERA stats have come with pitchers first and second starts. It's reasonable to assume that almost anyone can start off rusty and improve going forward. That's why this is such a ridiculous and ludicrous sample size to judge a guy in. It might be as absurd as judging batting averages after one series.

 

I think if anything the Sox have favored Wong because they realized they need to control the running game. I think McGuire may be a little better going forward because a lot of that is on the pitchers too and they need to adjust, but his pop times have gone down a bit this year and Wong has shown to have a good arm. McGuire has shown this year and in previous years that he's a very good blocker and pitch framer. And for almost a full year now he's been hitting above average for a catcher.

 

Both Wong and McGuire are playing at levels that could have them starting for a lot of other teams. Catcher really feels like the one position on this team we shouldn't be complaining about.....and yet it's dominating this board right now.

 

Good points and well said.

 

Our rotation has been really bad, at times, so we look for reasons- anywhere and everywhere.

[Hugh2]

Good points and well said.

 

Our rotation has been really bad, at times, so we look for reasons- anywhere and everywhere.

 

But the rotation has looked better as of late, and I don't think it has much to do with the catcher. Sale didn't have stuff in his first outing and in his second his command was off. You could CLEARLY see it was him that was pitching subpar. Even by putting small sample sizes to the side, we can see what was really going on there.

 

Guys like Whitlock and Bello, who are still young and bound to take their lumps didn't look great in their first starts. But is that unreasonable when it is cold out still and these guys didn't get camps like everyone else? especially Bello who probably should of had another couple starts in AAA before he came up. He only pitched 2 innings in ST.

[mvp 78]

Hugh, if they were staying with anything like a platoon Wong would not have started 2 of 3 games in the Twins series with the Twins starting righties. That's pretty obvious to me.

 

If they are switching, it's not because they looked at CERA.

[Bellhorn04]

If they are switching, it's not because they looked at CERA.

 

All the conventional numbers seem to show McGuire is fine. So what do you think they're looking at?

[Hugh2]

All the conventional numbers seem to show McGuire is fine. So what do you think they're looking at?

 

Did you miss the stretch where they faced almost ALL LHP???

[Hugh2]

If they are switching, it's not because they looked at CERA.

 

This. I think most of us in here have a problem with us looking at CERA, or at the very least looking at CERA at an insanely small sample size.

 

It can BOTH be true that Wong is a better option behind the plate AND McGuire is also a good catcher AND CERA is garbage. All three can be true, this isn't a zero-sum game.

[moonslav59]

All the conventional numbers seem to show McGuire is fine. So what do you think they're looking at?

 

It's hard to know. We are pretty sure they are looking at L-R splits as one factor, but not a lock straight platoon.

 

Maybe McGuire is nursing some unknown injury.

 

Maybe some pitchers have expressed a preference for Wong, already. Maybe they made the choice without pitcher input.

 

They will probably not give an answer, if anyone ever asks.

[notin]

All the conventional numbers seem to show McGuire is fine. So what do you think they're looking at?

 

Entirely possible they’re simply asking the pitchers…

[moonslav59]

Entirely possible they’re simply asking the pitchers…

 

Almost every team matches catchers with specific pitchers. We had a unique situation, to start the year. We had almost an entirely new staff and catching tandem, at the same time.

 

It made sense to mix and match to start the year and use the opportunity to go mostly with the L-R factor, along the way.

 

I had hopes pitchers would prefer McGuire, as I see him as the better hitter, and being a lefty batter helps, but going with the better comfort level is the industry standard.

[Maxbialystock]

But the rotation has looked better as of late, and I don't think it has much to do with the catcher. Sale didn't have stuff in his first outing and in his second his command was off. You could CLEARLY see it was him that was pitching subpar. Even by putting small sample sizes to the side, we can see what was really going on there.

 

Guys like Whitlock and Bello, who are still young and bound to take their lumps didn't look great in their first starts. But is that unreasonable when it is cold out still and these guys didn't get camps like everyone else? especially Bello who probably should of had another couple starts in AAA before he came up. He only pitched 2 innings in ST.

 

Wong has a significantly higher DWAR than McGuire, so to me that makes him a better catcher.

 

But I agree the Sox need to get McGuire's bat into the lineup. He can play 1b on days he isn't catching, or he can DH with Turner playing 1b. Casas has the lowest WAR on the team at -0.5.

 

Wong and McGuire currently have the same overall WAR: +0.3. Those WAR's are tied for 4th best on this Sox team, so it makes sense to play both of them.

 

FWIW (and that's not much), the Sox are 8-5 in games in which Wong has played (but not necessarily started).

 

When McGuire has played in a game, the Sox so far are 4-7.

[Maxbialystock]

Whatever happened to the idea that Kluber needs to be replaced in the rotation?

 

He's killing us, absolutely killing us.

 

Houck, Whitlock, Sale, Crawford, and Pivetta are all clearly better. And Bello probably is.

[Bellhorn04]

Entirely possible they’re simply asking the pitchers…

 

This I agree with 100%

[notin]

Wong has a significantly higher DWAR than McGuire, so to me that makes him a better catcher.

 

But I agree the Sox need to get McGuire's bat into the lineup. He can play 1b on days he isn't catching, or he can DH with Turner playing 1b. Casas has the lowest WAR on the team at -0.5.

 

Wong and McGuire currently have the same overall WAR: +0.3. Those WAR's are tied for 4th best on this Sox team, so it makes sense to play both of them.

 

FWIW (and that's not much), the Sox are 8-5 in games in which Wong has played (but not necessarily started).

 

When McGuire has played in a game, the Sox so far are 4-7.

 

 

Playing McGuire at DH creates a risky situation unless the Sox add a third catcher to the roster…

[Bellhorn04]

Almost every team matches catchers with specific pitchers. We had a unique situation, to start the year. We had almost an entirely new staff and catching tandem, at the same time.

 

It made sense to mix and match to start the year and use the opportunity to go mostly with the L-R factor, along the way.

 

I had hopes pitchers would prefer McGuire, as I see him as the better hitter, and being a lefty batter helps, but going with the better comfort level is the industry standard.

 

8-4 with Wong.

2-6 with McGuire.

 

Sometimes you just have to go with what seems to be working.

[moonslav59]

8-4 with Wong.

2-6 with McGuire.

 

Sometimes you just have to go with what seems to be working.

 

I have no issues with choosing Wong over McGuire.

 

I had hopes McGuire would be the 60-70% catcher, but if Wong keeps getting better results, he should start more.

 

Right from the start, I was okay with us not adding a catcher over the winter.

 

Other areas still look like higher need areas, to me.

 

I'm not sure why we seem to be spending more time, rcently, on catchers and not 1B, middle IF and the rotation.

[notin]

Whatever happened to the idea that Kluber needs to be replaced in the rotation?

 

He's killing us, absolutely killing us.

 

Houck, Whitlock, Sale, Crawford, and Pivetta are all clearly better. And Bello probably is.

 

They’re not going to pull the plug just yet.

 

10 starts minimum….

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure why we seem to be spending more time, rcently, on catchers and not 1B, middle IF and the rotation.

 

People can talk about whatever they want to talk about.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They’re not going to pull the plug just yet.

 

10 starts minimum….

 

Smoltz got cut after eight in '09. Times were different then... because we know if it's 2023, there could be three or four Red Sox starting pitchers on the IL by Memorial Day...

[notin]

Smoltz got cut after eight in '09. Times were different then... because we know if it's 2023, there could be three or four Red Sox starting pitchers on the IL by Memorial Day...

 

That’s part of the reason.

 

Also Smoltz wasn’t being paid $10mill with an option for 2024. If Kluber can turn it around, it could help next year’s team.

[Maxbialystock]

Playing McGuire at DH creates a risky situation unless the Sox add a third catcher to the roster…

 

I agree, but the risk is only for one game, after which they bring up another catcher. Plus, if McGuire plays 1b, there is no risk.

[Maxbialystock]

They’re not going to pull the plug just yet.

 

10 starts minimum….

 

And 10 losses minimum. Kluber is a loser.

 

I'm exaggerating, of course, but Kluber's stuff--his repertoire and his command--don't look very good.

[moonslav59]

People can talk about whatever they want to talk about.

 

Indeed. People can also talk about why certain areas are talked about more than others, and that we feel the other areas are more pressing and deserving of discussion.

[moonslav59]

I agree, but the risk is only for one game, after which they bring up another catcher. Plus, if McGuire plays 1b, there is no risk.

 

It's not all that risky. You just lose the DH, if you are forced to or choose to move the DH to a position.

[Maxbialystock]

People can talk about whatever they want to talk about.

 

Plus moonslav has said all he wants to about the rotation. He thinks it's fine with Kluber in it.

 

And I completely disagree with him. Kluber has started and lost 4 games because he stinks. At the same time Cora has six other starters--Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford, Houck, and very likely Bello--who are better choices.

[Nick]

8-4 with Wong.

2-6 with McGuire.

 

Sometimes you just have to go with what seems to be working.

 

Finally, the language I can understand.

[Nick]

Plus moonslav has said all he wants to about the rotation. He thinks it's fine with Kluber in it.

 

And I completely disagree with him. Kluber has started and lost 4 games because he stinks. At the same time Cora has six other starters--Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford, Houck, and very likely Bello--who are better choices.

 

The defense for Kluber seems to be, "He can do better. Hitters right now aren't being tricked well. Kluber can improve on his chicanery."

[moonslav59]

It seems like Kluber starts out games doing okay, but then loses it after a coupe innings.

 

(Note: some of these games, he allowed too many base-runners early, but they just didn't score.)

 

Game 1: 3 IP 1 ER, then in the 4th- BB & HR. He loads the bases and is pulled. Kelly allows 2 of his runners to score.

 

Game 2: 5 IP 1 ER (4H & 2BB w 7Ks vs PIT)

 

Game 3: 4.1 IP w 0 ER, then he allows a run and leaves with 2 out and 2 on. Bleier allows both to score and then some. (vs Rays)

 

Game 4: He lets up 3 in the first (BB, 2B, HR) then 4 in the 3rd (BB, HBP, 1B, HR)