Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kluber has an ERA+ of 55. Wacha is a baby step better with an ERA+ of 67…

 

Post all the stats you want. We've seen every Kluber start. He throws slower than most pulses on the forum. Wacha blanked the Braves.

[notin]

Post all the stats you want. We've seen every Kluber start. He throws slower than most pulses on the forum. Wacha blanked the Braves.

 

I prefer Wacha over Kluber this year. But Wacha is still a slight improvement at best, and the bulk of his track record still makes him a part time pitcher. Wacha hasn’t topped 130 IP since 2017. Even the oft-injured Kluber has thrown over 160 IP twice in that span…

Edited April 20, 2023 by notin

[Hugh2]

Read my entire post or look it up. Had a few Kluber starts and also shut out the best team in the NL with 10 Ks in 6 IP.

 

Wacha is 31. Kluber turned 37.

 

Had one good game and stunk the rest of the way?

 

Kluber did that too

[moonslav59]

Yes 8 years old, CERA has been thrown out the window since then. But hey….one guy. Or two now

 

Its value is only in a very narrow useage, and it is often misused.

 

When you have large enough sample sizes, not very often, and they are somewhat balanced, comparing two catchers on the same team- pitcher by pitcher, I feel those numbers have meaning and significance. Several sample sizes between Leon & Vaz have 250+ PAs with each catcher. When almost all of them show a wide disparity, and with a couple it's around or over 1.50, it matters, to me.

 

Comparing Wong and McGuire's tint samples of differing pitchers is misuse of the stat.

[Bellhorn04]

Its value is only in a very narrow useage, and it is often misused.

 

When you have large enough sample sizes, not very often, and they are somewhat balanced, comparing two catchers on the same team- pitcher by pitcher, I feel those numbers have meaning and significance. Several sample sizes between Leon & Vaz have 250+ PAs with each catcher. When almost all of them show a wide disparity, and with a couple it's around or over 1.50, it matters, to me.

 

Comparing Wong and McGuire's tint samples of differing pitchers is misuse of the stat.

 

Read the article moon. Whether it's misuse is strictly a matter of opinion. This is not an exact science.

[mvp 78]

McGuire is not fine. There's something wrong with the guy. I bet we move on from him fairly soon, just as the Jays and White Sox did last year.

 

Make Wong Kluber's personal catcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Make Wong Kluber's personal catcher.

 

And Sale's...and as many others as possible...

[mvp 78]

Interesting article on CERA by a guy who thinks it's real.

 

https://tht.fangraphs.com/classic-tht-annual/do-catchers-have-an-era/

 

To do this, Woolner looked not at catcher ERA, but at batter OPS with and without the catcher, for each pitcher. He computed Z-scores, or standard deviations, to see if the observed differences in catcher/pitcher OPS were different from what one would expect by chance. He found the data looks almost identical to a bell curve; in other words, the differences observed among catchers appeared to be random.

 

No kidding!

[mvp 78]

And Sale's...and as many others as possible...

 

And give Whitlock's innings to McGuire.

[Hugh2]

Its value is only in a very narrow useage, and it is often misused.

 

When you have large enough sample sizes, not very often, and they are somewhat balanced, comparing two catchers on the same team- pitcher by pitcher, I feel those numbers have meaning and significance. Several sample sizes between Leon & Vaz have 250+ PAs with each catcher. When almost all of them show a wide disparity, and with a couple it's around or over 1.50, it matters, to me.

 

Comparing Wong and McGuire's tint samples of differing pitchers is misuse of the stat.

 

Even in the article, they state that the study revolves around figuring out WHY some catchers have a better CERA and they point to metrics that are more measurable. Such as throwing out base runners, framing, blocking etc.

 

If you use Statcast, all their data from all years then Reese is 34th out of 219 catchers in framing and 24th out of 73 in blocking skills. His pop times used to be elite but have taken a tick down this year which is the only thing I find concering so far but it's such a small sample size. He's an average to above-average defender, not gold glove caliber but by all means, he can catch.

 

Wong seems to have the makings of a plus defender behind the plate too. I'm thoroughly convinced our pitching woes are on the pitchers. I actually think the McGuire/Wong combo is one of the seasons bright spots so far.

[moonslav59]

Even in the article, they state that the study revolves around figuring out WHY some catchers have a better CERA and they point to metrics that are more measurable. Such as throwing out base runners, framing, blocking etc.

 

If you use Statcast, all their data from all years then Reese is 34th out of 219 catchers in framing and 24th out of 73 in blocking skills. His pop times used to be elite but have taken a tick down this year which is the only thing I find concering so far but it's such a small sample size. He's an average to above-average defender, not gold glove caliber but by all means, he can catch.

 

Wong seems to have the makings of a plus defender behind the plate too. I'm thoroughly convinced our pitching woes are on the pitchers. I actually think the McGuire/Wong combo is one of the seasons bright spots so far.

 

All of those metrics matter and influence a pitcher's ERA and OPSA. I think it goes beyond that and into unmeasurable intangibles, which stat geeks avoid like the plague.

 

Anecdotal evidence is plenty, in terms of pitchers having clear favorites and being way more successful with one catcher over the other, and it goes beyond all those metric differentials.

[mvp 78]

All of those metrics matter and influence a pitcher's ERA and OPSA. I think it goes beyond that and into unmeasurable intangibles, which stat geeks avoid like the plague.

 

Anecdotal evidence is plenty, in terms of pitchers having clear favorites and being way more successful with one catcher over the other, and it goes beyond all those metric differentials.

The article stats that the OPSa was RANDOM so they ignored the results in favor of CERA. LOL

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Interesting note in the WooSox game notes: James Paxton will make his next rehab appearance tomorrow, and he will follow an opener. Very curious why that is.

 

Potentially getting him used to entering a game in relief?

 

Let's check in and see how that outing went...

 

After Taylor Broadway struck out two over four scoreless innings to open the contest, James Paxton struggled mightily in his third appearance (first out of the bullpen) for Worcester. The rehabbing left-hander got rocked for seven earned runs on five hits, two walks, and zero strikeouts in just two-thirds of an inning.

 

Yuck!

[moonslav59]

The article stats that the OPSa was RANDOM so they ignored the results in favor of CERA. LOL

 

That is funny. Big loss of cred, right there.

[Nick]

Our elite relievers seem to do well with either catcher.

 

Maybe the problem is strictly with the starters.

[Bellhorn04]

And give Whitlock's innings to McGuire.

 

Didn't like his last start with Wong?

[Nick]

I prefer 2 year $70M deals than bunch of 8-10M deals for bad starters. Talk about waste of money.

 

Sometimes you get what you pay for.

[Bellhorn04]

To do this, Woolner looked not at catcher ERA, but at batter OPS with and without the catcher, for each pitcher. He computed Z-scores, or standard deviations, to see if the observed differences in catcher/pitcher OPS were different from what one would expect by chance. He found the data looks almost identical to a bell curve; in other words, the differences observed among catchers appeared to be random.

 

No kidding!

 

Did you read the whole article?

[Bellhorn04]

You guys keep talking about sample size with McGuire and Wong. But variance size matters too, and the variance size is enormous. And as the sample size gets bigger the variance is supposed to get smaller. That ain't happening.

[mvp 78]

Didn't like his last start with Wong?

 

It was fine. Need to see if Whitlock and McGuire can work well together too.

[mvp 78]

Did you read the whole article?

 

Yes. Did you ignore the part where he said OPS was LOL random? That was hilarious. There's a reason that FanGraphs doesn't currently list CERA as a stat.

[Hugh2]

And there's plenty of articles that Praise McGuires defense, and stats to back it up...except for CERA....this one year.....in a tiny tiny sample size....that has been largely discredited.

 

McGuire is a good defensive catcher, he is average to above average at just about everything behind the plate from framing, blocking, and his pop times. With the later being a little down this year. AND he's one of the only guys hitting.

 

Also, a typical starting catcher isn't going to give you as many games as a healthy starting SS or any other position player. A catcher might start 120 games a year and thats GOOD, but if your SS did that you'd be saying he can't stay on the field. So even if Wong starts more McGuire is going to be a better 2nd than just about anyone in the league.

 

it's really perplexing that we are talking so much about Reese.

[mvp 78]

You guys keep talking about sample size with McGuire and Wong. But variance size matters too, and the variance size is enormous. And as the sample size gets bigger the variance is supposed to get smaller. That ain't happening.

 

I believe that if the starts were random (that catchers weren't tied to a particular pitcher), CERA for McGuire and Wong wouldn't be dissimilar after a long stretch of time. When you look at really small sample sizes like we are now (Sale not pitching for years, early in the season, bad weather, different teams, bad luck, etc.), the numbers are effectively meaningless.

[Hugh2]

I believe that if the starts were random (that catchers weren't tied to a particular pitcher), CERA for McGuire and Wong wouldn't be dissimilar after a long stretch of time. When you look at really small sample sizes like we are now (Sale not pitching for years, early in the season, bad weather, different teams, bad luck, etc.), the numbers are effectively meaningless.

 

A large variance in small sample size is actually direct evidence that the small sample size is..... too small.

[moonslav59]

I believe that if the starts were random (that catchers weren't tied to a particular pitcher), CERA for McGuire and Wong wouldn't be dissimilar after a long stretch of time. When you look at really small sample sizes like we are now (Sale not pitching for years, early in the season, bad weather, different teams, bad luck, etc.), the numbers are effectively meaningless.

 

So would be every stat.

 

Once a sample size gets large enough, we assume these things even out.

[mvp 78]

A large variance in small sample size is actually direct evidence that the small sample size is..... too small.

 

No kidding.

[mvp 78]

So would be every stat.

 

Once a sample size gets large enough, we assume these things even out.

 

No.

[Hugh2]

So would be every stat.

 

Once a sample size gets large enough, we assume these things even out.

 

And I believe it's been said that what little relevance CERA does have on pitching performance (which is some just very little) takes a much larger sample size than most other stats. Which begs the question....why do we keep nitpicking his every start? "today McGuire gave up 3 more runs than he otherwise would have" but if there's anything to CERA we'd expect an elite catcher to save a run every week or two.....not 3 day.

[notin]

Making a big deal about CERA when not a single pitcher on the staff has 20 IP yet seems premature regardless of whether or not you think the star has any actual meaning…

[moonslav59]

And I believe it's been said that what little relevance CERA does have on pitching performance (which is some just very little) takes a much larger sample size than most other stats. Which begs the question....why do we keep nitpicking his every start? "today McGuire gave up 3 more runs than he otherwise would have" but if there's anything to CERA we'd expect an elite catcher to save a run every week or two.....not 3 day.

 

I keep asking the same question.