Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Placekeeper for who? There's nobody close in the pipeline! It's not like they are waiting on the pitching version of Rafaela or Mayer or even Bleis.

 

Don't you know by now? All the one-year guys are placekeepers for the next season's one-year guys!

 

Just like all Bloom's predecessors in Boston, it's been exactly like this... NEVER!

[mvp 78]

Don't you know by now? All the one-year guys are placekeepers for the next season's one-year guys!

 

Just like all Bloom's predecessors in Boston, it's been exactly like this... NEVER!

 

At least Ben Cherington had the decency to trade expiring contracts of a last place team.

[moonslav59]

You said:

 

 

 

You can't do that for bWAR. Only FanGraphs assigns a $ value to fWAR. There is no $ value to bWAR. Even the fWAR one isn't really meant to be taken seriously IMO.

 

When you factor in injury prone pitchers, you also have to factor in the replacement level pitchers that will fill in for them.

 

I think the Wacha and Hill signings were good, especially for the money spent on them. It clearly was not enough to improve the rotation to plus status.

 

I'm not sure what more I need to say.

 

I'm not disagreeing on Bloom not building a strong rotation.

 

It seems like he has focused on building up everything else, first, with the pen being his most recent area of major inputs.

 

bWAR has Wacha way higher ranked than fWAR does, but they have Hill lower ranked.

 

You pointed out Wacha and Hill exceeded their fWAR/Value numbers, and my point was only about winter rotation moves. To me, Bloom's 2022 winter rotation moves were the bext of his 4 winters, here, including this year's solo move with the Kluber addition.

 

Again, doing better than s***** can still be pretty bad or "not enough."

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

The Red Sox are giving up a ton of homers - 12 through 5 games. They’ve noted that the ball is flying at Fenway. But that issue has been made way worse by the fact that their pitchers lead MLB in meatball percentage

 

Great job!

[Bellhorn04]

@alexspeier

The Red Sox are giving up a ton of homers - 12 through 5 games. They’ve noted that the ball is flying at Fenway. But that issue has been made way worse by the fact that their pitchers lead MLB in meatball percentage

 

Great job!

 

Does help explain why they've given up 99 runs in the last 15 games including ST, and have given up fewer than 4 runs in none of those games...

[Old Red]

At least Ben Cherington had the decency to trade expiring contracts of a last place team.

 

Ben wasn’t looking for that third option in the fork in the road.

[mvp 78]

Does help explain why they've given up 99 runs in the last 15 games including ST, and have given up fewer than 4 runs in none of those games...

 

If you just put it on a tee for an MLB hitter, it's going to go far.

[mvp 78]

Ben wasn’t looking for that third option in the fork in the road.

 

His downfall was blowing it up only to sign Pablo, Hanley and go with whatever that 2015 rotation was.

[moonslav59]

His downfall was blowing it up only to sign Pablo, Hanley and go with whatever that 2015 rotation was.

 

I think they felt the grass was greener for signing a FA pitcher the following season, which they did with Price, but those two big swings and misses likely caused Ben's departure.

 

I sometimes wonder, if Porcello and HRam had their 2016 season in 2015, if things would have been different for Ben.

[Bellhorn04]

If you just put it on a tee for an MLB hitter, it's going to go far.

 

Way far. Especially since the ball is probably juiced again.

[notin]

At least Ben Cherington had the decency to trade expiring contracts of a last place team.

 

But he didn’t do a great job of it. For Lackey - who was going to make minimum wage the following season - he got Joe Kelly and salary dump Allen Craig…

[notin]

Does help explain why they've given up 99 runs in the last 15 games including ST, and have given up fewer than 4 runs in none of those games...

 

No. Why are you counting the spring training games?

[Bellhorn04]

No. Why are you counting the spring training games?

 

They gave up 65 runs in the last 10 ST games. 6.5 per game.

 

They've given up 34 runs in the first 5 RS games. 6.8 per game.

 

I know ST games don't mean much, but toward the end of them you do have your better pitchers covering most of the innings. So giving up 6.5 per game was concerning. Was it misleading? Not based on the first 5 real games.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Garrett Whitlock is likely to make his 2023 debut on Tuesday in St. Petersburg.

[Old Red]

They gave up 65 runs in the last 10 ST games. 6.5 per game.

 

They've given up 34 runs in the first 5 RS games. 6.8 per game.

 

I know ST games don't mean much, but toward the end of them you do have your better pitchers covering most of the innings. So giving up 6.5 per game was concerning. Was it misleading? Not based on the first 5 real games.

 

ST was just a sign of things to come. That’s pretty OBVIOUS.

[moonslav59]

@ChrisCotillo

Garrett Whitlock is likely to make his 2023 debut on Tuesday in St. Petersburg.

 

He's supposed to start tomorrow for Woo, so that makes sense.

 

Does Crawford get demoted to AAA or the pen?

[moonslav59]

ST was just a sign of things to come. That’s pretty OBVIOUS.

 

As easy as 1-3-6.

 

[Old Red]

Opening day for the Sea Dogs in Portland tomorrow where Whitlock will pitch his second opening day of the season.

[notin]

They gave up 65 runs in the last 10 ST games. 6.5 per game.

 

They've given up 34 runs in the first 5 RS games. 6.8 per game.

 

I know ST games don't mean much, but toward the end of them you do have your better pitchers covering most of the innings. So giving up 6.5 per game was concerning. Was it misleading? Not based on the first 5 real games.

 

19 of those 65 runs were given up by Houck and Crawford - two injury replacements in the rotation.

 

So first of all, was Houck’s first start representative of his last two spring training outings?

[notin]

He's supposed to start tomorrow for Woo, so that makes sense.

 

Does Crawford get demoted to AAA or the pen?

 

AAA. Why break up the pen right now?

[mvp 78]

He's supposed to start tomorrow for Woo, so that makes sense.

 

Does Crawford get demoted to AAA or the pen?

 

I'd send him to AAA so that he can continue to start.

[moonslav59]

AAA. Why break up the pen right now?

 

Break up the pen?

 

I'm talking about demoting or minimizing the mid/high leverage IP by Ort, Kelly and Brasier.

 

Ort, Kelly, Brasier:

12.2 IP

13 H

6 BB- 8Ks

8 ER

5.84 ERA

1.54 WHIP

 

The rest of the pen:

16 IP

16 H

7 BB- 16 K

4 ER

2.25 ERA

1.44 WHIP

 

If Whitlock and Bello joing the rotation, I can see Crawford going to AAA, but Kelly & Ort have options, so I'd send them down and move Houck to the pen, where he belongs, and hopefully he can fill Whitlock's role held ver the last 2 years.

 

Rotation: Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta

Closer: Jansen

Set-up: Martin, Bleier, Brasier (and eventually JRod)

1-2 Innings guys: Schreiber

1-3 Inning guys: Houck, Winckowski (and maybe Crawford, eventually)

[mvp 78]

Break up the pen?

 

I'm talking about demoting or minimizing the mid/high leverage IP by Ort, Kelly and Brasier.

 

Brasier has Matt Barnes disease right now; he's not throwing first pitch strikes. His appearances against the Pirates were an improvement over the slop he served against the Orioles though. Maybe he can slowly turn it around.

 

Ort isn't walking anyone, but isn't fooling anyone either. Swinging Strike % of only 3.3! Contact % 93.3! If you get a clean inning out of him, feel blessed and have him hit the showers.

 

Kelly is working with a hard hit % of 54.5! His ERA is 1.93, but all 3 of his pitches are assigned negative values on FanGraphs for 2023. Adding in a BB rate of 7.71% means that Kelly could be the first guy optioned to AAA IMO.

[moonslav59]

Brasier has Matt Barnes disease right now; he's not throwing first pitch strikes. His appearances against the Pirates were an improvement over the slop he served against the Orioles though. Maybe he can slowly turn it around.

 

Ort isn't walking anyone, but isn't fooling anyone either. Swinging Strike % of only 3.3! Contact % 93.3! If you get a clean inning out of him, feel blessed and have him hit the showers.

 

Kelly is working with a hard hit % of 54.5! His ERA is 1.93, but all 3 of his pitches are assigned negative values on FanGraphs for 2023. Adding in a BB rate of 7.71% means that Kelly could be the first guy optioned to AAA IMO.

 

If Wink can keep this up, and Houck fills the other long man relief role close to as well as Whitlock did from 2021-2022, our pen will be a lot better off.

 

Lessening the mid and high leverage IP by Brasier, Ort and Kelly should be something we all agree on as being a good thing.

 

I'm still hopeful Crawford can help the pen, at some point, or maybe Mata or someone else can, but the less those 3 pitch, the better our pen will be, IMO.

 

Jansen

Martin

Bleier

Schreiber

J Rod

Houck

Wink

Brasier/Crawford/Mata/Paxton/Mills/Kelly/Ort

 

Keep the top 7 as strong as possible.

[mvp 78]

Also to note, Bleier's velo is WAY down early on. Not sure if that is normal for him, but a 36 year old reliever losing 2 mph is not great. Need to monitor him going forward.

[moonslav59]

Also to note, Bleier's velo is WAY down early on. Not sure if that is normal for him, but a 36 year old reliever losing 2 mph is not great. Need to monitor him going forward.

 

Maybe the Marlins knew something we didn't.

 

Note: 2023 Barnes

2IP

1H

1BB

1K

0ER

[mvp 78]

Maybe the Marlins knew something we didn't.

 

Note: 2023 Barnes

2IP

1H

1BB

1K

0ER

 

Barnes was awful in ST. They were going to work him into the closer rotation, but noped out of it when they saw how bad he looked. His FB is under 94. He's not k'ing anyone. He has a 167 BABIP. Batters have a zone contact % of 100 against him. I'm skeptical that he's going to do well over the long term. If he was playing here and had these numbers, I'd feel the same.

[mvp 78]

Bello threw 5 innings yesterday in an extended ST game. Velo was 94-95. Next stop is WOO on Tuesday most likely.

 

So Whitlock in BOS on Tuesday and Bello in WOO on Tuesday...

[moonslav59]

Bello threw 5 innings yesterday in an extended ST game. Velo was 94-95. Next stop is WOO on Tuesday most likely.

 

So Whitlock in BOS on Tuesday and Bello in WOO on Tuesday...

 

Those two might be or end up being in our top 4-6 pitchers, this year (SP + RP).

 

They could really change the make-up of our staff.

[Nick]

Those two might be or end up being in our top 4-6 pitchers, this year (SP + RP).

 

They could really change the make-up of our staff.

 

They should both be starters in my mind. Cora has stated Paxton will be a starter only. That means there is still a possibility of Pivetta moving to the pen. Houck maybe #7 starter out of this group (when Whitlock, Bello and Paxton return).