Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[mvp 78]

Sox Starters

 

Opening weekend

 

11.1 innings - 30th

11.91 ERA - 30th

-0.6 f(WAR) - 30th

.360 OBA - 28th

51.4% hard hit rate - 28th

20% barrel % - 30th

 

The good news is that it can't get any worse. The better news is that Whitlock and Bello should be back in the next few weeks.

 

I have to imagine that Kluber's 10.8 bb rate will go down (1.15 last season). I have no idea what to expect out of Sale. Houck is a 3 inning pitcher at best.

[moonslav59]

Wasn't one thread enough?

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20595-Your-2023-Red-Sox-starting-rotation-depth-as-it-stands

[mvp 78]

Didn't see that one. Consider this Part II if that makes you feel better.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Houck is actually a 4 inning pitcher.

[mvp 78]

I think Houck is actually a 4 inning pitcher.

 

Yeah, maybe! Probably why they'll go back to piggybacking him with Whitlock or Paxton when they return.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, maybe! Probably why they'll go back to piggybacking him with Whitlock or Paxton when they return.

 

No pigs this year.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, maybe! Probably why they'll go back to piggybacking him with Whitlock or Paxton when they return.

 

I hope they just make Houck the long man, like Whitlock was for much of the last 2 seasons.

 

1. Sale

2. Whitlock

3. Kluber

4. Bello- Paxton (piggyback)

5. Pivetta

 

Pen:

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Schreiber

RP4: Houck (Longman)

RP5: Crawford (Longman)

RP6: Winckowski (short/long)

RP7: Bleier

RP8: (See Paxton)

 

When JRod is healthy, Wink or Crawford would be sent down, assuming everyone else is healthy.

 

This looks like a decent staff, to me.

 

Depth: Mata/Walter/Murphy and Kelly/Brasier/Mills/Ort

 

[mvp 78]

No pigs this year.

 

They quietly gave Cora a 2 year extension because of last year's pigs. Wonder what they'll have to do if it happens this year.

[mvp 78]

I hope they just make Houck the long man, like Whitlock was for much of the last 2 seasons.

 

1. Sale

2. Whitlock

3. Kluber

4. Bello- Paxton (piggyback)

5. Pivetta

 

Pen:

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Schreiber

RP4: Houck (Longman)

RP5: Crawford (Longman)

RP6: Winckowski (short/long)

RP7: Bleier

RP8: (See Paxton)

 

When JRod is healthy, Wink or Crawford would be sent down, assuming everyone else is healthy.

 

This looks like a decent staff, to me.

 

Depth: Mata/Walter/Murphy and Kelly/Brasier/Mills/Ort

 

 

Bleier should be the closer. He has a -0.78 xFIP!

 

I would have to see some regression before I thought about moving Winckowski. He has been more than solid.

[moonslav59]

Bleier should be the closer. He has a -0.78 xFIP!

 

I would have to see some regression before I thought about moving Winckowski. He has been more than solid.

 

I don't have Brasier or Ort in my best 13. Of course, we will never see 100% staff health, but to me, as of right now, I'd have Crawford & Wink ahead of Brasier and Ort. When Joely returns, there would be a squeeze.

[mvp 78]

I don't have Brasier or Ort in my best 13. Of course, we will never see 100% staff health, but to me, as of right now, I'd have Crawford & Wink ahead of Brasier and Ort. When Joely returns, there would be a squeeze.

 

There could be a squeeze, but more likely an injury. If no injury, it's easy enough to move the lowest rung back to WOO for now. I just worry that they hold onto Brasier for too long.

 

I'm not sure what to make of Paxton's chances for coming back. He's never pitched out of the pen, so it's more likely they'd push Pivetta out there. I can't count on Paxton though. I think I'd rather Pivetta being an inning eater anyway? IDK.

 

Kluber

Sale

Whitlock/Houck

Bello

Paxton/Pivetta

[notin]

I don't have Brasier or Ort in my best 13. Of course, we will never see 100% staff health, but to me, as of right now, I'd have Crawford & Wink ahead of Brasier and Ort. When Joely returns, there would be a squeeze.

 

They will probably Crawford and Ort to Worcester along with Bello (at least for now )…

[mvp 78]

They will probably Crawford and Ort to Worcester along with Bello (at least for now )…

 

If Sale struggles in his next few starts, it'll be hard to keep Bello down. Crawford is probably up and down as needed. Can keep him in the rotation in WOO.

 

Ort should have 2 innings and a 0.00 ERA right now.

[moonslav59]

They will probably Crawford and Ort to Worcester along with Bello (at least for now )…

 

Yes, we would attempt to keep as many viable options on the table, although some of us do not view Brasier and Ort as "viable."

[notin]

If Sale struggles in his next few starts, it'll be hard to keep Bello down. Crawford is probably up and down as needed. Can keep him in the rotation in WOO.

 

Ort should have 2 innings and a 0.00 ERA right now.

 

They’re going to keep everyone they can and not deplete depth this early. The players with an option left are most likely demoted…

[notin]

Yes, we would attempt to keep as many viable options on the table, although some of us do not view Brasier and Ort as "viable."

 

 

Brasier isn’t going anywhere for a while. And if they can get a bullpen where he is the 7th or 8th best option and is limited to mostly mop up work, that’s not a bad thing…

[notin]

If Sale struggles in his next few starts, it'll be hard to keep Bello down. Crawford is probably up and down as needed. Can keep him in the rotation in WOO.

 

Ort should have 2 innings and a 0.00 ERA right now.

 

I suppose Kelly could take Ort’s seat on the Worcester bus…

[moonslav59]

According to soxprospects.com, here are the options remaining:

 

Red= too good to send down.

 

0:

Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton

Jansen, Martin, JRod, Bleier, Brasier

 

1:

Mata, Mills

 

2:

Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Ort

 

3: Whitlock, Schreiber, Kelly, Walter, Murphy

 

9 with 0 options, 3 are must keeps, so that leaves one with options to keep on the 13 man staff, at any given time.

 

To me, Bello, Crawford and Wink should be on the 13 man staff, but having 1 in the minors seems okay.

 

Ort has options, so he's an easy choice, but we'd have to trade or DFA Brasier to keep 2.

 

Of course, one injury solves the problem, and it's almost a certainty one pitcher will be on the IL, at all times- maybe 2-3.

Edited April 3, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I suppose Kelly could take Ort’s seat on the Worcester bus…

 

He has NOT looked good so far. He can come back up later if he turns it around.

[mvp 78]

According to soxprospects.com, here are the options remaining:

 

Red= too good to send down.

 

0:

Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton

Jansen, Martin, JRod, Bleier, Brasier

 

1:

Mata, Mills

 

2:

Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Ort

 

3: Whitlock, Schreiber, Kelly, Walter, Murphy

 

9 with 0 options, 3 are must keeps, so that leaves one with options to keep on the 13 man staff, at any given time.

 

To me, Bello, Crawford and Wink should be on the 13 man staff, but having 1 in the minors seems okay.

 

Ort has options, so he's an easy choice, but we'd have to trade or DFA Brasier to keep 2.

 

Of course, one injury solves the problem, and it's almost a certainty one pitcher will be on the IL, at all times- maybe 2-3.

 

I'm going to disagree that Schreiber is too good. His velo has ticked back down to pre-2022 levels. There's a good chance that he was a one year wonder.

 

Ort, Kelly and Crawford are the easiest to move down right now.

[moonslav59]

I'm going to disagree that Schreiber is too good. His velo has ticked back down to pre-2022 levels. There's a good chance that he was a one year wonder.

 

Ort, Kelly and Crawford are the easiest to move down right now.

 

I'd say, until Schreiber proves he does not belong, he's on my 13, no matter how many pitchers are healthy.

 

Now, I suppose Crawford, Wink and Bello could all be looking great (and better than Schreiber) and change my mind, but as of now, Schreiber has a firm hold on a 13 man staff slot.

[mvp 78]

I'd say, until Schreiber proves he does not belong, he's on my 13, no matter how many pitchers are healthy.

 

Now, I suppose Crawford, Wink and Bello could all be looking great (and better than Schreiber) and change my mind, but as of now, Schreiber has a firm hold on a 13 man staff slot.

 

To me, he's lower on the pecking order. If I'm managing the Sox, I'm not sure he's a setup guy going forward.

[Old Red]

I'm going to disagree that Schreiber is too good. His velo has ticked back down to pre-2022 levels. There's a good chance that he was a one year wonder.

 

Ort, Kelly and Crawford are the easiest to move down right now.

What a problem it is to have so many good pitches you don’t know what to do with them all. How did Bloom get so lucky?

[moonslav59]

To me, he's lower on the pecking order. If I'm managing the Sox, I'm not sure he's a setup guy going forward.

 

As long as he keeps doing well, he'll stay.

 

I recall you saying similar things about Wink's stuff not playing up to MLB standards.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong. Surely 2022 might have been a fluke, but Schreiber deserves a slot, until he shows he doesn't, IMO.

[moonslav59]

What a problem it is to have so many good pitches you don’t know what to do with them all. How did Bloom get so lucky?

 

It can only be luck.

 

[mvp 78]

What a problem it is to have so many good pitches you don’t know what to do with them all. How did Bloom get so lucky?

 

My biggest concern with Bloom is the title of the post.

 

2020 Rotation - s***. One of the two worst rotations in the league.

2021 Rotation - Low key not great aside from Nate! ERod, Richards, Perez all had ERA+ under 100. Success was just health luck.

2022 Rotation - Parade of Injured Pitchers and Ineffectiveness.

 

If the rotation struggles this season, there's question on if Bloom knows how to build a rotation. W

[Old Red]

My biggest concern with Bloom is the title of the post.

 

2020 Rotation - s***. One of the two worst rotations in the league.

2021 Rotation - Low key not great aside from Nate! ERod, Richards, Perez all had ERA+ under 100. Success was just health luck.

2022 Rotation - Parade of Injured Pitchers and Ineffectiveness.

 

If the rotation struggles this season, there's question on if Bloom knows how to build a rotation. W

 

I agree and except of health to Sale, and Kluber I think the progression of Whitlock, and Bello are key. If those two don’t work out then the problem really gets bad.

[Hugh2]

As long as he keeps doing well, he'll stay.

 

I recall you saying similar things about Wink's stuff not playing up to MLB standards.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong. Surely 2022 might have been a fluke, but Schreiber deserves a slot, until he shows he doesn't, IMO.

 

I said that about Winks stuff too in the past. I think his stuff has taken a step forward, I don't think he's great or going to be a superstar or really even close. But I'm much more convinced he has an MLB career ahead of him. He might be fine as a swingman/ middle relief type here for a few years.

 

I have a feeling we are going to see more of him this year. I think he's going to be on that Woo-Sox shuttle all year.

[Hugh2]

I agree and except of health to Sale, and Kluber I think the progression of Whitlock, and Bello are key. If those two don’t work out then the problem really gets bad.

 

This has pretty much been my line of thinking for a while. A healthy Sale and Kluber can be a big lift for this rotation. If Whitlock and Bello can pitch like to young studs in a rotation with the talent we know they have that can be a big lift for this rotation.

 

If all those things happen, then this rotation might be....dare I say....Knock on every piece of wood you can find, really really good. I'll take 3 out of 4.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My biggest concern with Bloom is the title of the post.

 

2020 Rotation - s***. One of the two worst rotations in the league.

2021 Rotation - Low key not great aside from Nate! ERod, Richards, Perez all had ERA+ under 100. Success was just health luck.

2022 Rotation - Parade of Injured Pitchers and Ineffectiveness.

 

If the rotation struggles this season, there's question on if Bloom knows how to build a rotation. W

 

As Bellhorn alluded to, it's not really a question of whether Bloom knows how to acquire good starters, it's that he ultimately chooses not to. We've been hearing every winter that the Sox have interest in this arm or that, but all Bloom has done is replace one serviceable big leaguer with another on short contracts. Eovaldi and Wacha weren't Hall of Famers, but they did fine in Boston. They just wanted more money than the ghosts of Kluber and Paxton.

 

This past winter finally revealed offers made to legit starters who signed elsewhere -- such leaks were either an attempt to show the fanbase he was actually trying to improve the rotation... or that he was incapable of closing the deal for those he covets.

 

For those who think Bloom will someday trade prospects, instead of paying for arms, he's been in charge of four offseasons... and someday never comes.