A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

It's not a new thing for the Sox to go several years without going over in a 3-5 year stretch.

 

I'm with Hugh. I'll be worried, if they stay under, next year.

 

I also think they are prepared to add salary, at the deadline, assuming we are still in the race by then.

 

They didn't do enough to have us in the race at the deadline.

[Hugh2]

I'd do Yamamoto as the pitcher, if only because the Yankees are really high on the guy, and f*** 'em.

 

I would love me some Yamamoto, f*** it, add Ohtani in too. Henry can corner the Japanese market.

 

I know I know....not happening.

[moonslav59]

They didn't do enough to have us in the race at the deadline.

 

That has not been determined, yet.

 

I'm not using injuries as an excuse, but I am going to use it as an encouraging aspect of our outlook.

 

Perhaps the biggest winter question was based on too much reliance being placed on Sale and Paxton's return to form or near form. They may end up slumping or going on the IL, but I like what I see.

 

Another big question was how well Houck and Whitlock would do coming off injuries and perhaps adjusting to their new roles and increased inning expectations. Both missed some time and have had issues either rehabbing or adjusting or just plain finding their groove, but I am very far from giving up on the two guys who have been our best pitchers from 2021-2022 combined.

 

Bello is meeting my expectations and can continue to improve. I may be all alone still having faith in this rotation, but so be it.

 

Our pen is light years better than 2020-2022, and that was before seeing what Wink & Craw have given us. We don't know this will continue, but the pen is not a negative, for once.

 

The defense is a mess, and may be less of a mess, when we get Story back. I like our catcher and 1B D better than last year, and Devers seems to be better at 3B. Dugo has done better in RF than most of us expected. It might be okay later, this year.

 

Our line-up is in doubt, but again, with the return of Story and Duvall, our RHB'ers will be light years better than now. Our bench will improve as players doing well as starters and platoons will now be on the bench or in AAA as extended depth.

 

Things look bleak, now, and this site seems to reinforce negativity at times like this. It's clear many had low expectations to begin the season, so this recent stretch has reinforced those gut feelings. There are certainly reasons to be pessimistic about this team. I'm not going to say those posters are wrong, but I still think things are better than many feel they are.

 

Right now, there is not much evidence to back me up, and apparently gut feelings from stat geeks don't carry much weight.

[Hugh2]

They didn't do enough to have us in the race at the deadline.

 

They should have just got under at the deadline, would make for a much better draft this year too. Especially if the plan is to supplement future teams.

[moonslav59]

They should have just got under at the deadline, would make for a much better draft this year too. Especially if the plan is to supplement future teams.

 

They came so close, there really is no excuse that placates me.

 

I was for a larger fire sale than most, but not selling off enough to reset was a major blunder.

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks everyone for the discussion on salaries. Fascinating and insightful.

 

My two cents is that John Henry had a change of heart when the 2018 WS Sox (108 regular season wins) completely collapsed in 2019. So he fired DD and brought in Chaim Bloom, probably with guidance not to spend major bucks long term on starters. He also decided not to keep Mookie Betts and more recently Xander Bogaerts. However you want to define it, JH wanted a new approach and that's what he is getting.

 

Let's not forget that through last year the Sox were paying all of Chris Sale's contract and half of David Price's--without getting a nickel's worth of performance. Plus not getting much from Story.

 

This year, as someone else said, the Sox team salary is right in the middle, 15th. That seems pretty low until you discover that the Rays and Orioles are paying a ton less than the Sox for players and getting way better results. And, as noted by someone, the Sox are 0-8 against the NL Central, all of whose team salaries (except the Cubs, whom the Sox haven't played) are lower than the Sox.

 

So I buy both arguments/cases presented: 1) Bloom and company need to make smarter deals and, as moonslav insists, build up that 40 man roster, and 2) they are also likely to start spending again because, guess what, they can afford to.

[Dipre]

They brought Bloom in because they want to be able to develop talent like the Rays while being able to spend like the Mets if they want to.

[Hugh2]

They brought Bloom in because they want to be able to develop talent like the Rays while being able to spend like the Mets if they want to.

 

Spend like the Mets??? maybe more like NYY/LAD. But the caveat is to spend when you're good........they have not been good.

[moonslav59]

Thanks everyone for the discussion on salaries. Fascinating and insightful.

 

My two cents is that John Henry had a change of heart when the 2018 WS Sox (108 regular season wins) completely collapsed in 2019. So he fired DD and brought in Chaim Bloom, probably with guidance not to spend major bucks long term on starters. He also decided not to keep Mookie Betts and more recently Xander Bogaerts. However you want to define it, JH wanted a new approach and that's what he is getting.

 

Let's not forget that through last year the Sox were paying all of Chris Sale's contract and half of David Price's--without getting a nickel's worth of performance. Plus not getting much from Story.

 

This year, as someone else said, the Sox team salary is right in the middle, 15th. That seems pretty low until you discover that the Rays and Orioles are paying a ton less than the Sox for players and getting way better results. And, as noted by someone, the Sox are 0-8 against the NL Central, all of whose team salaries (except the Cubs, whom the Sox haven't played) are lower than the Sox.

 

So I buy both arguments/cases presented: 1) Bloom and company need to make smarter deals and, as moonslav insists, build up that 40 man roster, and 2) they are also likely to start spending again because, guess what, they can afford to.

 

I think building up the farm was a big Theo priority, and bringing in Ben was a similar moves to Bloom's. I guess what I'm saying is that this Bloom move was not so radical.

 

I also think the 15th place thing needs some context. We just signed Devers to 50% more than the Price deal, but it kicks in, next year, so somehow, it does not count, and JH is Scrooge.

 

I am puzzled why we didn't spend up closer to the line, this past winter, but we may add some serious salary at the deadline, so I'm holding off on bashing Bloom & JH for underspending on 2023.

 

If we end up out of it by the deadline, that criticism will and should grow exponentially.

 

I like pretty much everything done this past winter, except not getting an ace. That's pretty major, but can be cured at the deadline.

[Hugh2]

I think building up the farm was a big Theo priority, and bringing in Ben was a similar moves to Bloom's. I guess what I'm saying is that this Bloom move was not so radical.

 

I also think the 15th place thing needs some context. We just signed Devers to 50% more than the Price deal, but it kicks in, next year, so somehow, it does not count, and JH is Scrooge.

 

I am puzzled why we didn't spend up closer to the line, this past winter, but we may add some serious salary at the deadline, so I'm holding off on bashing Bloom & JH for underspending on 2023.

 

If we end up out of it by the deadline, that criticism will and should grow exponentially.

 

I like pretty much everything done this past winter, except not getting an ace. That's pretty major, but can be cured at the deadline.

 

Why wouldn't they just sign Devers to 11 years, kick it in this year and save a few million in AAV every IDK. Makes little sense. Maybe they can use their space under the cap to take on payroll at the deadline and get some assets for it.

[moonslav59]

Why wouldn't they just sign Devers to 11 years, kick it in this year and save a few million in AAV every IDK. Makes little sense. Maybe they can use their space under the cap to take on payroll at the deadline and get some assets for it.

 

I suggested that same thing, especially seeing how under we are, now.

[notin]

Why wouldn't they just sign Devers to 11 years, kick it in this year and save a few million in AAV every IDK. Makes little sense. Maybe they can use their space under the cap to take on payroll at the deadline and get some assets for it.

 

Maybe they tried but Devers (or his agent) was not amenable?

[Hugh2]

Maybe they tried but Devers (or his agent) was not amenable?

 

Yes, but if you take his contract starting next year, add in this years ARB number and make it 11 years.....its' the same money to him. The NPV of that contract should actually be higher for Devers. So I'm not sure why they wouldn't be open to it if asked.

[Hugh2]

Yes, but if you take his contract starting next year, add in this years ARB number and make it 11 years.....its' the same money to him. The NPV of that contract should actually be higher for Devers. So I'm not sure why they wouldn't be open to it if asked.

 

One thing that makes sense is they had anticipated a move that never came to fruition in which they would have needed the cap space for that they currently have.

[dgalehouse]

Sox in a nutshell : 2018 was a complete baseball team . One of the finest ever assembled. And it showed on the field , resulting in a championship. After the celebrations died down , John Henry decided that he was spending too much of his fortune on the ballclub. He wound up firing Dombrowski and bringing in Bloom in an attempt to save money while remaining competitive. The 2018 team has been systematically dismantled . Only two guys remain, Sale and Devers . They are still the best pitcher and best player on this team. The team has been rebuilt. For the most part, the guys who have been brought in are just not as good as the guys who left. The results are obvious just watching the games. And it shows in the standings. Being in the cellar has become the norm. That is where we are today.

[Old Red]

Sox in a nutshell : 2018 was a complete baseball team . One of the finest ever assembled. And it showed on the field , resulting in a championship. After the celebrations died down , John Henry decided that he was spending too much of his fortune on the ballclub. He wound up firing Dombrowski and bringing in Bloom in an attempt to save money while remaining competitive. The 2018 team has been systematically dismantled . Only two guys remain, Sale and Devers . They are still the best pitcher and best player on this team. The team has been rebuilt. For the most part, the guys who have been brought in are just not as good as the guys who left. The results are obvious just watching the games. And it shows in the standings. Being in the cellar has become the norm. That is where we are today.

 

Well written, and I agree 100%. I’m still trying to understand what Bloom means when he said things are going to be awesome.

[Bellhorn04]

Well written, and I agree 100%. I’m still trying to understand what Bloom means when he said things are going to be awesome.

 

He left out the part about when they're going to be awesome.

[dgalehouse]

Well written, and I agree 100%. I’m still trying to understand what Bloom means when he said things are going to be awesome.

 

Maybe he just likes to use the word " awesome." He probably likes to say " amazing " too. As in , " This season is going to be like so amazing , it will be super awesome."

[Old Red]

He left out the part about when they're going to be awesome.

 

Ah the open ended statement.

[Dipre]

Sox in a nutshell : 2018 was a complete baseball team . One of the finest ever assembled. And it showed on the field , resulting in a championship. After the celebrations died down , John Henry decided that he was spending too much of his fortune on the ballclub. He wound up firing Dombrowski and bringing in Bloom in an attempt to save money while remaining competitive. The 2018 team has been systematically dismantled . Only two guys remain, Sale and Devers . They are still the best pitcher and best player on this team. The team has been rebuilt. For the most part, the guys who have been brought in are just not as good as the guys who left. The results are obvious just watching the games. And it shows in the standings. Being in the cellar has become the norm. That is where we are today.

 

Holy conjecture, Batman!

[dgalehouse]

Holy conjecture, Batman!

 

Well Robin , sometimes Batman needs to conject. But Henry did say as much back in 2019.

[mvp 78]

Well Robin , sometimes Batman needs to conject. But Henry did say as much back in 2019.

 

You have that quote handy for us?

[Dipre]

Well Robin , sometimes Batman needs to conject. But Henry did say as much back in 2019.

 

Well way I see it, Henty wants to make money. And what's the best way to make money? Spend money.

 

They want a perennial contender, a la Houston or Dodgers, and they want to fix the talent pipeline before fully loosening the purse strings.

 

"Do as I do'", right?

 

They brought in Bloom, a development specialist, and still pay up for players they really wanna sign (Yoshida, who everyone else say was an overpay) or Devers (who they paid market value for). This isn't on Henry, this is on Bloom. He needs to make his "plan" work

[mvp 78]

This isn't on Henry, this is on Bloom. He needs to make his "plan" work

 

You can't pick and choose. It's on all of them.

[dgalehouse]

You have that quote handy for us?

 

No. I remember it well, but I don't know where to find it now. It was pretty well known at the time. He clearly said that he was spending too much on the team. I am sure some others recall that as well.

[Hugh2]

You can't pick and choose. It's on all of them.

 

I truly know this is the right answer. There is plenty of blame pie to go around.

[Old Red]

You can't pick and choose. It's on all of them.

 

Like Sam Kennedy said at last years season end presser We All failed.That’s one thing he was right about.

[mvp 78]

No. I remember it well, but I don't know where to find it now. It was pretty well known at the time. He clearly said that he was spending too much on the team. I am sure some others recall that as well.

 

I don't believe he wants to spend on the Red Sox. That's what I've heard. I don't seem to remember him saying this out loud in 2019 though.

 

I've heard there's a push and pull between him and Werner as to spending money.

[mvp 78]

Like Sam Kennedy said at last years season end presser We All failed.That’s one thing he was right about.

 

He's the first that gets sent to the wall when the revolution comes.

[mvp 78]

I truly know this is the right answer. There is plenty of blame pie to go around.

 

And how do you separate any personnel decision from Bloom and BOH? Is it Bloom's fault they went over the CBT last season or was that pushed by ownership? A lot of things we just don't know. However, we do know that Bloom AND Henry have both not really covered themselves in glory since the end of the 2019 season.